Oxtung
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Everything posted by Oxtung
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Are you perhaps referring to this quote about Mike Foltynewicz, the prospect listed above Meyer? For Meyer all they said was that he filled a power pitching need for the Twins.
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Reusse: Extending Morneau might be better than a trade
Oxtung replied to jorgenswest's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
You aren't sure about Morneau after 1200 plate appearance since his concussion but you are ready to pass judgement on Parmelee after 500? That seems backwards. -
I think his immediate problem, other than trying to continue his hot streak, is that he seems to have been supplanted by Mejia at SS over the last few weeks. 2B makes his weak bat all the more glaring problem.
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Dozier's first 37 games this season he had an .508 OPS. The next 36 he has a .936 OPS. I think neither are probably the true Brian Dozier. Where exactly he ends up in the middle will determine his value moving forward. As others have said he will get the rest of the season and probably the beginning of next to show he belongs. You reevaluate at that point.
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So do you believe that Correia has some unique talent that allows him to go deeper into ballgames than the FA's on the market this upcoming off season? Or are you suggesting the Twins should be making decisions about the future based on how it will affect the bullpen this year? Or have I missed your point?
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That list include players that I felt were on the bubble going forward. Obviously some will play their way onto next seasons 40 man roster over the course of the second half of the season. Thielbar certainly could be one of those, and perhaps is even probable given his current production, but I feel SSS still applies to his pitching so far.
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Correia had an unbelievable first 5 starts to his season. In his last 12 starts however he is sporting an ERA of 5.22. Opponents are hitting .318/.356/.541/.897 off him. He has a WHIP of 1.536. Frankly, unless he puts up another 3 decent starts I think he is probably unmovable. Look at it this way. Hitters he faces turn into Evan Longoria.
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Over the last 5 years only 1 position player below AAA has stuck with their team after being drafted in the rule 5 draft. A SS at low A. IIRC none of the rest even played a single game with their prospective MLB teams. I agree that Correia/Pelfrey should get moved/released and allow the young guys to get starts, if the Twins think they are ready. There is plenty of room on the 40 man with plenty of players that could be removed: Wilkin Ramirez, Butera, Colabello, Clete Thomas, Mastroianni, De Vries, Hermsen, Pelfrey, Correia, Carrol, PJ Walters, Hendriks, Escobar, Florimon, Roenicke, Thielbar, Duensing, Swarzak and Danny Santana should be feeling vulnerable considering his AA production this year.
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What is the point of holding on to Correia? Is his talent so large that he is not replaceable? The Twins signed two pitchers this winter and can do so again next off season. Meanwhile you can get a prospect or three back. Maybe those prospects won't be superstars but even fourth OF's and AAAA pitchers have value. It's also entirely possible that the "third tier" prospect improves and becomes an every day player or rotation capable pitcher. Prospects are not commodities with preordained futures.
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Age when they reached AAA: 21: Mauer, 22: Swarzak, Gibson, Arcia, Morneau, Plouffe, Hendriks, 23: Perkins, Hicks, Tonkin, 24: Duensing, Diamond (23 @AAA w/Braves), 25: Thielbar, Dozier, Florimon, Seems like most prospects make it before 25.
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He is. Even played a game at 1B.
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Reusse: Extending Morneau might be better than a trade
Oxtung replied to jorgenswest's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Parmelee has actually been hitting the ball really well over the last month and a half. In his last 38 games (May 23) he is hitting .277/.365/.495/.860. He has a 14BB/19K's which is real nice rate. I don't know that he can continue that going forward but he has shown a real nice string of games recently and I think he deserves some recognition. If he keeps hitting well over the next month I think trading Morneau becomes much easier to do. -
If this was his first season in low A I would understand better. Harrison and Walker are both putting up very similar numbers; very good but not dominating. On the other hand this is JD's second full season in low A ball. He has shown he corrected whatever mistakes he had last year, at least with his batting. If there are no unknown extenuating circumstances I would think the Twins would want to move him up so he can catch up to his "class" of recruits. If they don't promote him this season he will be 25 years old at AAA, assuming he makes it that far.
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That's why I opened my paragraph with: I tried to be very clear I wasn't calling for him to get moved. Just saying all the available information says he is ready to move.
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It would be interesting to know why some players don't get moved up. Now, JD is on a big hot streak right now which has helped push his numbers higher, but he has been hitting well all season. He is now 22 and repeating low A. He has certainly made a big improvement over last season, .865 OPS vs. .651 OPS. Fort Meyers' only prospect in the OF is Buxton so nobody is blocking him. All of the available information says he is ready to move up. It will be interesting to see if he gets the call shortly.
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What's your point? That is what happens when you have pitchers with little talent or with talent but pitch poorly.
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I can only think of restructuring in terms of a contract extension. An example off the top of my head is Felix Hernandez. He made $2.5m more in 2013-14 after his extension, than he did from his original voided contract. Now $2.5m isn't much but his contract wasn't front loaded so he was already making a considerable amount of money in those last years of his original contract. I'm sure there are more examples I just don't know them off the top of my head.
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Even if they don't/can't hold out they do grumble about restructuring and it does happen. They even demand trades. I could see a player feeling like they were underpaid late in the contract, never mind the fact they just made a boatload at the beginning of the contract. He could then make a big fuss about wanting to sign an extension which means that last year, or more, of cheap pay would be voided and potentially rewritten as a high paying year. They sign back loaded contracts where they are paid less early on. I guess overall we've come to the conclusion that, regardless of who is against front loading contracts, it is probably never going to happen in the risk adverse world of MLB. Anybody else have a creative way the Twins could make use of their $40-80M of unspent payroll over the next few years to improve the team when we are hopefully making a run at a World Series?
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One of Willingham and Morneau need to get moved so that the young bats can all play consistently in the second half. Neither has much trade value currently. Willingham is under contract for 2014 and so has a chance to recoup some of that value. That makes Morneau the obvious trade choice in my mind. Perhaps Morneau would accept a reduced role with the team allowing Parmelee to move to 1B anyway. If he were willing to play backup/team leader/mentor and resign with the Twins that would be OK with me too. I doubt that is acceptable to him however. While it is sad that Morneau's career has taken the turn it has the Twins shouldn't keep him just for a sentimentality reason. He was very well compensated for his efforts. The Twins owe him nothing. The future is forward, not backwards.
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I believe front loading is frowned upon by owners and I think Willihammer and drjim have hit on some big points. The future potential value of money, perhaps raising payroll quicker, and another I just thought of is players wanting to restructure their contracts during the cheap out years. Can MLB players holdout like NFLers? Jim also brought up a good point about just offering to pay some of the salary when making a trade but I am unsure of the specifics of how that would work. Is it a lump sump paid at the time of the deal? Would the Twins actually pay out, let's say Greinke's, 2015 salary in 2015 and his 2016 salary in 2016 to the [insert team Greinke was traded to]? If either of those are true then they aren't feasible for the Twins as long as payroll limitations in the future remain as they have been stated now; 50% revenue, no carry over to future years, yada yada. The reason front loading works so well for the Twins right now is because they have very large amount of payroll unspent currently. That hopefully won't be true in 2016. Thanks for the discussion and clarification. I truly was trying to understand your points but was struggling too.
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If the TR was going to go out and sign impact FA's with the available cash I would completely agree with you. That is a way to add talent to this organization that we are currently lacking without giving up anything needed for our future. But since that seems highly doubtful I agree that it will be perhaps half a decade before we win the division, retro active to 2011 our first terrible year. So 2016+ is when I think things matter. Perkins will be 33 at that point and will be the final year of his contract. That to me means he isn't worth keeping around. Trade him now while he's hot and coveted. Get what you can for him. The "veterans" you speak of will be FA's brought in (unfortunately probably more retreads) and guys like Mauer and Plouffe.
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If our prospects don't pan out it won't matter if the Twins still have Perkins or not. The Twins could keep or even resign Mourneau, Willingham, Perkins and Doumit and it wouldn't matter. All that matters is how many of the prospects pan out and what how many are above average. That is the only way the Twins will return to relevancy. Given that, what is the point of keeping Perkins? We might win 76 games instead of 75?
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I guess I'm just not understanding your point. Front loading doesn't change the value of the contract, it just changes when the money is distributed. For instance if the Twins had signed Greinke (this is just a hypothetical to illustrate my point) they would pay him the same $159M over 6 years. However when he receives that money would be different. [TABLE=width: 500] Team 2013 14 15 16 17 18 Dodgers $19M $26M $25M $26M $25M $26M Twins $40M $60M $20M $13M $13M $13M [/TABLE] The total value of the contracts are the same but when the money is paid is different. If the Twins were looking like non-contenders still they could shop a potential Ace pitcher in 2015 signed at a ridiculously low salary. If they were contenders well now they also have $30-$60 million in payroll they could use to sign other players to push them over the top. It is just maximizing the use of a limited resource.
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Article: International Signing Preview
Oxtung replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
You would be correct sir! My dad was a geography teacher, boy would he be disappointed. Do you think I could claim it was a typo? Didn't PR just vote again this year on whether to apply for statehood? I thought I read that somewhere. -
Why would the union or the players have a problem with front loading? That just means they get their money sooner and can put it away gaining returns a few years earlier. I think front loading would actually favor the player. You're are right that the concept is non existant.
