jokin

I like the idea of Hermann becoming the next Doumit, IMO, the rest of this list is mostly "young non-prospects" rather than the former. Maybe, Benson comes around, I have high hopes for Arcia. I would still argue that the best two potential ML OFers at A- might be Rosario and Sano. Did you intentionally omit Walker from this list (DH only? He stole alot of bases for Jacksonville)?

Double-Wow! Alex this was a jab at Souhan, not you. I thought it was obvious within the context of the discussion. Your analysis is always thoughtful and well-appreciated by me.

Good analysis and good job getting to the root of the problem about the Twins and their lack of dynamic thinkng, they need to really step up to the plate with the clock ticking on the careers of the core veteran's remaining productive time. I've posted on this before. Greinke with his SAD diagnosis and Midwest ties and previous experiences would be the ideal anchor, but they would have to reduce the number or the length of contract to make it work for them. Zambrano's personality and NL background make that one a non-starter for the Twins. Getting Greinke and Sanchez is probably a risky payroll bridge too far for the Pohlads. I've advocated for Bedard in the past and I think he would be a good fit at the #2 spot in the rotation and you might be able to get him for a Willingham-like contract.

Does the general consensus (with which I concur) about the Twins NOT having depth in the OF disclose future intentions of the club? They drafted Buxton and Walker with top picks this week and they have Arcia, Rosario and possibly Sano ready to become ML outfielders as early as 2015 (earlier?). Are they thinking about the post-Willingham and Span lineup and will cast off most of the rest of this list to prepare for an OF anchored by Revere in center and some combination of the aforementioned youngsters. Not saying it is the right or wrong thinking, just wondering if that is what the Twins are thinking. This would mean a rebuilding process with some growing pains, perhaps precluding a winner until 2016 or later.

Mazilli coming up on the Deuce for St Johns in the SuperRegional (JIP) Do we want him to do well this weekened or not? That could either A) Price him out of the Twins plans... and/or convince him to stay for his senior year to try for a higher slot...

Mazilli coming up on the Deuce for St Johns in the SuperRegional (JIP)

Where do you think he stole the idea from?

It's called acknowledging the facts on the table. The Twins and Lohse failed to reach his full potential during his time here, took a disastrous step backward at the end and got nothing in return for the time and money spent on his development. You say he is the same pitcher then as now, the Cardinals say he is worth $11.8 Million and stuck with him during his disastrous 2010 season, the Twins concluded he was worth nothing and got nothing in return.

Facts aren't cigars and I don't smoke.

OK, I'm going back on my comprehension theory back to the original supposition. My point was pretty straightforward about Lohse's improvement as he matured, demonstrated conclusively, adjusting for the AL/NL differences. I did speak with insufficient clarity about the 4% difference in ERA. As I was computing Lohse's stats for the two eras of his career relative to the league he played in, I meant to say that there was a 4% difference between the leagues over the 2002-7 span and also the 2008-12 span. I apologize for my mischaracterization. Here are the actual breakdowns in the year 2007, the difference in ERA that year was only 1.8%: [TABLE=class: tablehead] [TR=class: colhead] [TD=colspan: 2, align: left]LEAGUE AVERAGES[/TD] GP W L ERA SV CG SHO IP QS ER R BB SO BAA[/TR] [TR=class: oddrow] [TD=colspan: 2]American League[/TD] [TD=align: right]162[/TD] [TD=align: right]82[/TD] [TD=align: right]80[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.51[/TD] [TD=align: right]40[/TD] [TD=align: right]5[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [TD=align: right]1441[/TD] [TD=align: right]78[/TD] [TD=align: right]721[/TD] [TD=align: right]781[/TD] [TD=align: right]531[/TD] [TD=align: right]1064[/TD] [TD=align: right].269[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: evenrow] [TD=colspan: 2]National League[/TD] [TD=align: right]162[/TD] [TD=align: right]80[/TD] [TD=align: right]82[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.43[/TD] [TD=align: right]40[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [TD=align: right]8[/TD] [TD=align: right]1453[/TD] [TD=align: right]77[/TD] [TD=align: right]714[/TD] [TD=align: right]774[/TD] [TD=align: right]540[/TD] [TD=align: right]1081[/TD] [TD=align: right].267[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] IMO, your original point was that Lohse is the same pitcher as he was when the Twins dumped him, if that was true, would the Cards trade him for Zach Ward's clone on June 7, 2012? I showed why that isn't categorically true, adjusting for league and park differences he has improved, incrementally to be sure. You also are stubborn in being unwilling to admit that Lohse was dumped at his absolute lowest value possible as a Twin, and that his numbers overwhelmingly suggest he would look pretty good on the Twins staff in 2012.

There is an apparent reading comprehension problem in understanding a fairly straightforward comment. I am coming to the conclusion that this isn't a comprehension problem, as you write quite well, the only conclusion I can come to is you are employed by the Twins or take your loyalty to new levels of extremes.

Hear! Here! Glunn! I think my realist/masochist persona when the Twins go through their down-cycles sometimes rubs some the wrong way. This is a great site and hopefully open to a broad range of thought and opinion, but there have to be boundaries....just don't ever let a Sox troll come on here to gloat or poke fun, especially if the worst happens- and their moribund, unsupported franchise ends up sneaking out a Central Division title.

I didn't call you a Debbie-downer sock puppet, I just asked if you employed one. I trust calling you by your name, one-eyed jack, is not resorting to name-calling. BTW, I'm glad I got you out of your depression with my hockey comment. The league has a history of low-seed teams that have gotten on amazing runs with hot goalies and you know it full well. I never said hockey was "just bounces and deflections". I believe you are also intelligent enough to know that like baseball, there is an element of luck, enough to overcome in the short-term, the Kings' opponents long-term superiority (Cards 2011, Twins 87). I've got a question for you. Who has more short- and long-term influence on his team? A hockey coach or a baseball manager?

In my initial post, I need to point out I plainly stated I wasn't doing a Twins-Cards comparison, I was suggesting that it was a matter of Lohse finding the right franchise and then a comparison vs. all the rest. There are ways to adjust for the league differences and the relative decline in overall scoring ( FYI, as an aside- The difference between the leagues' ERA was 4% from 2002-2007 and it remained 4% from 2008-2012). There are 1.5 years of NL pitching stats embedded in Lohse's 02-07 stats, negating a good chunk of the AL/NL differential. For example, Lohse's ERA in the first half of his career is 7% above league average ERA (4.5 yrs. AL/1.5 yrs. NL), while his second-half career ERA is only 2% above NL averages for the same period- but that's not all. Adjusting and coupling that number with his improved FIP relative to ERA of the NL average (another 1.6% increase relative to his first half career relative ERA/FIP ratio, indicates that Lohse is close to league average in ERA, indicating a just-under 7% improvement in his pitching performance relative to the league he played in, from the first half of his career. Again, this may have just been a matter of maturity, and I think we may be talking past each other. By all accounts, Lohse is very happy in his mid-end starting role in St Louis, in contrast to the Twins and fans giving up on him, followed by the Twins giving him away for nothing, they simply didn't know what they had and dumped him at the EXACT LOW POINT of his career (WHIP: 1.65/ERA: 7.07). I freely admit to being among the frustrated while he was here, but he obviously had a healthy arm that had unappreciated value to a low-budget team replete with a lack of pitching depth. Can we agree that his subsequent career has merited being worth more than Zach Ward?

1) The "explanations are rarely that simple" and then you explain it all away what happened with not one, but two over-simplistic cliches. 2) Hockey has never had an 8 seed win it all, but the explanations for the Kings success are certainly quantitatively definable in a sport based heavily on lucky bounces and deflections and hot goalies at the right time.

Wow, is this the new, "apologetic for his melodramatic juvenile rants" one eyed jack or his own private Debbie-downer sock puppet? I'm not sure there's any basis to start a conversation here. I might recommend a Crisis Intervention Hotline number, though.

On the plus side, Joe Mauer since the start of the Dozier (15-14) Era: (ie, in Twins last 30 games here is his slash)- .322/.445/.478. On the downside, 1) Joe Mauer has only played catcher in 11 of those 30 games and the Twins are 4-7 when he caught them. 2) Cutting back on catching was supposed to immunize Joe from a spate of injuries and illnesses like last season but, meanwhile, the world is waiting on the latest for a decision on his latest injury...

The statistical(ly significant) similar, but definitely improved across-the-board, life of its own: Lohse 2002-2007: OBA: .281/WHIP: 1.45/K-BB 1.91/HR-9: 1.27/GB%: 37/ERA: 4.80/FIP: 4.68 Lohse 2008-2012: OBA: .268/WHIP: 1.32/K-BB 2.34/HR-9: .89/GB%: 44/ERA: 4.16/FIP: 3.99 I think it's fair to say Lohse matured and blossomed in a new setting and would look a lot better in the Twins rotation in 2012 than Zach Ward.

I love the Willingham addition, a veritable bargain at $7 Mil. But, his production dropped off dramatically in May during much of the early part of the run: 220/366/473/839. Fortunately, he is back to April-like numbers thus far in June, so at least partial credit for this little run is his due.

15-14 in the Dozier era is hardly time to break out the champagne and commence with the back-slapping. In the last decade, the Twins have made their living dominating the weak teams (near .700 against the bottom-feeders), particularly in the Central and West. How much of their record thus far, with respect to who is on the schedule, is Killjoy cynicism versus cold reality staring them in the face? I was entertained a year ago in June, but other than a few foolish media types who absurdly suggested it was "happening", we all knew that the boomlet bubble would soon be burst. Given the Twins inadequate efforts at addressing the problems and other woes in major aspects of management and personnel, their is little to suggest any other outcome than something similar to last year. One reason for optimism, Terry Ryan might better be able to pull the trigger and get above-average return as a seller in July (if the Twins finally show their hand and admit the dire position they find themselves in). There are quite a few teams who haven't had a winner in a while that just might be tempted to go all-in to get over the hump in the short-term and some perennial winners who have top-level prospects blocked but are caught short in positions of need.

Right on all counts, except the first, we should read into it that Gardy has shown a distinct penchant in him rather having excess pitchers and catchers than are needed over having impactful day-to-day moves to make off the bench in the late innings.

Doumit's extensive catching duties are going to require more rest as the season unfolds. Willingham can take some breaks DHing, with a possible OF of Span, Revere and Parmelee and/or Plouffe w/ Mastro strictly for PR and late-inning defense.

Almond or Lemon? Record of Twins opponents before May 14 : 238-211 .530 Record of Twins opponents after May 14: 161-177 .476 (KC is listed and tabulated twice) /Cynicism

The feel-good memories and optimism are distorting your concept of Lohse, who was hardly "washed up" at age 27. All it took was a good managerial and coaching staff at the Cardinals for Kyle to realize his full potential. What did the Twins have to show for Lohse? Zach Ward??? Wouldn't Lohse's $11.8 Million salary would look far better in the Twins current payroll structure than Pavano's $9 Mil?

15-14 since Dozier called up. While Dozier has had his ups and downs, his move allowed the infield defense to improve overall (Twins lead the league by far in DPs and are 10th in team UZR @ SS and FIRST in team UZR @ 2B), giving Carroll time at 2B and 3B (Carroll is 3rd overall in FLD ratings @ 3B) and for Plouffe to get sufficient ABs to find his power stroke and find the best option to place his limited defensive skills, also at 3B (he actually hasn't been awful there, like last year's nightmare SS experience). This defensive upgrade obviously helped bolster the rookie starters and the bullpen immensely.