jokin
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Everything posted by jokin
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QEDDDDDDDDDDDDDD...... Bottom line is: "valuable pieces" are only deemed valuable in the eye of the beholder and sometimes the beholder's eyes can see the pennant fly if the glimmer of the fleeting fixation of their potential pennant dreams is acquirable. It is incumbent on teams like the Twins to make their tradeable baubles burn brighly, explore ALL options, to take the short-term PR-and-team-cohesion hit,ultimately strengthening and solidifying the areas of current weakness (pitching!) for the long-term.
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I don't think I proposed that Mauer play half the time. The Twins are well on the way to violating the "Not to Mention Fact" that you mentioned in your last sentence. Mauer has only played at catcher in about one-third of the last 36 games, he's already well under 50% at catcher on the season. You are right that 3B is still open in the intermediate and long-term, Plouffe is getting the chance of a lifetime right now to change the Twins' plans in his favor, but right now his L/R OPS split is .1063/.635, not good. Going into next season, and each season through 2018, an annual assessment of Mauer's health will dictate how much he can be counted on to catch, and right now the trend is not looking for more games at catcher, but less. I hope it isn't imminent, but it looks like the days of Mauer catching 120+ games is just about over. Which of course, necessitates a need to project another position for Mauer to play at least half the time (based on his current trend). If Mauer can catch primarily against left-handers and some right-handers (let's say 60-80 games), and DH and play 3B for another 80-100, the Twins would probably be in best position to maximize their $23 Mil/yr investment out to the end of the contract (2018). Morneau, with Parmelee to succeed him, are the current options at 1B, Mauer could easily end up there if they don't like what they see with Parmelee- and the Twins also need to extend Doumit to make this scenario become a possibility. This would also give the Twins a chance to focus on finding the long-term answer at 2B and/or SS.
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Mental or mechanical last year nothwithstanding, I can pretty much guaran-darn-tee you that no team that got a look at his body of work at SS last season would ever take a chance at this year's mid-season trading deadline to designate Plouffe as their starting SS. On the plus side, lots less mental pressure at 3B than SS, his throwing mechanics have been practically flawless since his insertion at the hot corner.
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Speaking of lazy, why does constructive criticism always elicit the predictable response and attack on the criticizer from the supporters of the writer- merely constructively criticized- a "Hater"?
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Why not all three? Theoretically, with Pavano, Liriano, Capps and Morneau off the books (by trade or FA), that opens up $33 Mil to spend. That gets you awfully close to the number you would need to get Greinke, Lewis and Bedard ($36-$40 Mil combined salary?) and they could still come well under their 2011 payroll of $112 Mil.
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It isn't Ryan's stripes I'm worried about (historically he's done a good job at identifying and acquiring undervalued talent), it's Ryan's strings that ownership has attached to him that are the problem. Imagine the pitch he had to give in order to convince the Pohlad's that they had to make their most expensive FA acquisition ever- Willingham.... love what he's done for the Twins, but it's still just....Willingham, while the real prizes of 2011 were truly franchise-altering: Pujols, Fielder, Reyes, Wilson, Darvish and Buehrle. The Twins already have their two "franchise-alterers" in the M & Ms. In short, Ryan would have to give the pitch of his life to the Pohlad's, times 2.5, to convince them, and Greinke, that him signing puts the Twins over the top. The chances unfortunately, are slim and none, and I think I saw Slim on a milk carton this morning at breakfast.
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I think that qualifies for "damning with faint praise"...
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Agree with most of your reasonable conclusions, but the point of Souhan's article is based on the erroneous assumption that the Twins possess OF depth. It's fairly demonstrable that they do not. Again, Plouffe and Doumit appear destined to be playing large roles elsewhere (and the Twins must re-sign Doumit) and Parmelee is a big question mark, it might take him 2+ seasons to firmly establish himself in RF, and there's a good chance a trade for Morneau occurs, leaving 1B open.
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Your proposed depth chart belies your opening declarative supposition. Leaving the Twins with only one proven full-time ML outfielder (Willingham) and "belief" and "assumptions" about your starting CF and RF usually cost a GM his job, if those beliefs and assumptions don't work out (Revere DOES look better the third time out, but it's probably too soon to dump Span with his team-friendly contract without a great haul in return-of-trade). In addition, it appear the Twins are headed in the direction of using Plouffe and Doumit in other more primary roles, and neither are good defensively in the OF. Mastroianni is a defensive replacement/PR 4th/5th OF, at best and Parmelee might morph into Kubel at some point, but still relies on belief and assumption in the short-term, looking out this and next season. I like fast-tracking Arcia, but you'd still be heavy on belief and assumption.
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7-day DL. Assuming he's healthy, he'd be ready to go after next Wednesday.
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I think you make a lot of good observations, the sense of "deja vu all over" is in the air. However, I do think your optimism got the best of you with Swarzak and Duensing, I think they might be "OK" relative to what the first two months SP stats were, but I think you need to cite evidence that suggests these two are ever going to be more valuable to the team other than in the roles they currently employ.
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A strong case for why the Twins have to stare cold reality in the face and rebuild. In this crazy division, even 87 wins could sneak a team in, but what's the point in even trying? It doesn't make business or competitive team sense to pretend to contend, if it hurts the team's chances in the intermediate and long-term, as was proven last year.
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Swarzak and Duensing have proven their inability to start games. Manship is still unproven, but probably deserves a chance to spot start. Instead of moving up either Guerra or Oliveros, instead of interrupting their development, wouldn't this be the time to bring Slama up? Assuming his injury is minor, he will be off the 7-Day DL next Wednesday. They have to make a decision on him this year, one way or another, now's a good a time as any.
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I'm not sure if you're comment was tongue in cheek or not. But it is striking, and possibly unprecedented, at how truly awful the members of the original Twins starting staff have performed this year. Believe it or not, according to Fangraphs: The Twins original starters are ranked #1(Hendriks 9.00) #2 (Blackburn 7.73) #3 (Marquis 7.65) #5 (Liriano 6.65) and #12 (Pavano 6.00) in worst ERA in all of the SPs in baseball. As of today (before including today's game), the ERA is still the worst in baseball at 6.11, lower even than the lowly Rockies who play in the launching pad that is Coors Field, who check in at 5.85. That Cole DeVries comes in as a breath of fresh air to the rotation is telling at how abysmally bad this staff has been. On a string of positive notes: 1) Blackburn and Liriano are back, showing at least a pulse in Blackie's case and a case for hope in Frankie's. 2)Hendriks, barring one anomalous performance, has been lights out in Rochester 3)Pavano has a history of bouncing back from the brink of extinction 4) Can't say this enough, Marquis is out of his, and our, misery, 5) Diamond appears to be the real deal, completely reversing most of his negative patterns from last year (at or near the top in ERA, BB/9 and GB%). Probably not sustainable, but even a regression to the mean of his two years combined in the majors qualifies for Ace on this staff.
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The RP has been phenomenal with a 1.66 ERA over the last 14 days and 1.25 over the last 7. Probably unsustainable, as their season RP ERA is 3.45 (unless they DFA Gray ).
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Hughes, was a great guy, but a placeholder, at best. Plouffe was a first round pick, still trying to put it all together. The biggest thing I've noticed is how comfortable and professional he looks at 3rd, especially compared to the other places (SS obviously the worst) the Twins have spotted him since his call-up. I think to some degree, that is carrying over to his hitting. Well, that, and teams that keep throwing the ball to him inside-middle in his wheelhouse. Whatever the case, his June production is unreal: .370/.414/.852./.1266
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It seems obvious, Joe Mauer?
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It definitely was a bad deal for the Cubs, but Soriano has a lot of competition for worst player category. If the Cubs are as desperate to get rid of them as the media reports, some team is going to get a pretty good DH option for the last couple years on his contract with the Cubs on the hook and paying most or all of it (like Zambrano). That was two prodigious, Thome-like shots. How many triple-deck-to-left shots have been hit in Target?
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I'm not familiar with what exactly can and can't be discussed between parties pre-draft. There must be a lot of wiggle room if Boras was publicly making the rounds and evidently assigning a non-negotiable figure he wanted while shopping Appel (including Terry Ryan).
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I concur (although Benson and Hicks could very well see some time as "tryout" starters in 2014, depending on who stays and who goes), and posted in this thread at #20 that 2015 is when the Twins think the "new era" will commence. Between then and now, I can guess more of the same status quo, keep-it-palatable-to-the-public, PR games from management.
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Article: R.A. - The One That Got Away
jokin replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Or some others have spent too much...? -
I also like the potential upgrade in athleticism this trio has to offer. For the first two, though, the clock is ticking, and the time for them being in the "development and projection" stage of their careers is coming near the end and the "hoping and wishing" stage is soon upon us- I think both you and I, and the Twins, agree with your last sentiment, right now the big word in that last sentence is not "fruition", it's "IF".
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Article: R.A. - The One That Got Away
jokin replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It's always interesting when both sides of the argument are true. Johan's WAR for 2003-2007: 31.3 (#1 ranking for P) Joahn's WAR for 2008-2012: 12.7 (Scott Baker is 12.2 over the same time frame) Time for the Thrylos breakdown of Dan Warthen and the Mets. -
Amen. Any PR statements that the club is competing, not rebuilding or happy with the status quo, is belied by their repeated over-reach for SPs from the scrap heap.