jokin
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Everything posted by jokin
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Yeah, guys like..., for example, Meyer, who has demonstrated both past and recent dominance at AAA level? Or wait, is Meyer your "NEGATIVE" value guy? It gets confusing...
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- alex meyer
- ricky nolasco
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Twins Minor League Hitter Of The Month - July 2016
jokin replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I did a little Southern League stat research. The numbers suggest that the Twins have a pretty good future tandem in Chattanooga. The SL has produced top-hitting MLB catchers in recent years, including Lucroy, Vogt and Gattis- Garver's comparable numbers in the SL easily exceed all 3 of them in almost all respects. *** (See Below!) Yes, Garver doesn't get the love behind the plate that Turner does, but he passed the eye test when I saw him catch in Ft Myers last year (Eades was wild and didn't have his best stuff, Garver somehow got him into the 7th inning and threw out two runners). And I don't think I'm speaking out of turn by disclosing that in private conversations with our Cedar Rapids correspondent, SD Buhr, that he was emphatic that Garver had MLB-potential defensive tools when he played at the A level in 2014. And it's worth mentioning yet again, he was the runner-up top NCAA catcher two years running- just behind Mike Zunino and Stuart Turner for the Johnny Bench Award. Here are some interesting catcher hitting stats in the Southern League: Top 12 hitting catchers- min. 170 PA (average age- 24.333 years). *** Mitch Garver (age 25.5) (some of these numbers attained as a DH) SLG .452 (1st) OPS .806 (1st) ISO .176 (1st) wOBA .369 (1st) wRC+ 132 (1st) OBP .354 (3rd) BB% 11.1% (4th) Stuart Turner is a year younger, and somewhat surprisingly, his offensive production falls right in the middle of the top 12 SL catchers (and has improved as the season has progressed).- 16 replies
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- zander wiel
- mitch garver
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I've been a fan of Max since I saw him play on two separate occasions in the minors. Someone comped him currently to Plouffe's month of HR unconsciousness a few years back. I don't think there's any comparison. Whereas Plouffe is a plodder and his MLB development has been slow, up and down, and at times downright painful, Kepler has been a joy to watch, even when he has made mistakes. While it's still in doubt if Kepler is likely ever to be an annual 30+ HR guy- assuming he doesn't have a serious injury he has the career trajectory with both the literal look of poetry in motion as well as the figurative look of being unrattleable, both in the field and at the plate.
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Yeah... if only he could just stop hitting all of those Homers
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Agreed on all points. I just originally said it was within the realm of possibility... and why it was yet another reason why this was a good trade for the Twins in not having another potential liability overhanging such a bad trade in the first place.
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- alex meyer
- ricky nolasco
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Let's hope that this continues moving forward. There is evidence there to present caution in making any presumptions. I do hope the Twins have learned from the recent past not to do a Hughes-like extension if his production produces clues that it will be suspect going forward.
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- alex meyer
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Hmmm. I'm not a fan of Nolasco, and as I've previously stated many times, it's a great trade to unload that contract that never should have been signed in the first place. Just saying that Santiago is far from a panacea... Santiago career numbers as a SP: FIP- 4.64 xFIP 4.83 Nolasco career numbers as a SP: FIP- 3.85 xFIP- 3.83 Santiago over recent seasons has been playing for a team in the Top Quintile for team defense. Nolasco over recent seasons has been playing for a team in the Bottom Quintile for team defense.
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- alex meyer
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"Article: Twins Trade Nolasco, Meyer, Cash To Angels For Hector Santiago"
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- alex meyer
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Not sure what their thoughts are on May. But I do know that this shifting of his roles hasn't been good for his pitching and mental health or his development as an effective major league starter. (I would bet that he's still confused to this day as to why he was placed in purgatory for a month last July 1- when he was arguably the Twins 2nd best SP)
- 382 replies
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- alex meyer
- ricky nolasco
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And that was my point... as stated previously, Nolasco has averaged ~7 IP/start in his last 4 games. Nolasco is returning home and in a contract year, and the Angels have the payroll available, and might benefit from playing in Anaheim. 400 IP is certainly within the realm of possibility.
- 382 replies
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- alex meyer
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Very likely on the AA guys. I do fear that with the Twins might be relying on Mejia coming through and supplanting May from one of the 5 SP spots. There's enough concern about Mejia, both externally and internally (after the Twins "develop" him- anyone remember Deolis Guerra?), that it would be foolish to count on him, at least initially. If May is the #4 SP and Santiago the #5 SP, (with [current] AA help on the way by the '17 ASG and Duffey/Wheeler a phone call away, I think I could live with that...)
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- alex meyer
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I'm pretty certain that Boras eased their concerns on that issue. (Scott's going to get his big payday on Meyer yet...)
- 382 replies
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- alex meyer
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Well, it is relevant in any contemplated trades of proven major leaguers (for flyers like Mejia), to put much more thought into the process for developing young SP arms to reach their ceiling as quickly and efficiently as possible (the Twins have a sad history of too many talented guys who waste their best bullets while in their mid-20s in the minors)
- 382 replies
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- alex meyer
- ricky nolasco
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You mean besides Trevor May? How about we reach down to AA for the #5 SP?
- 382 replies
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- alex meyer
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All of these points are accurate. The better question is why didn't Ryan have a better understanding of Meyer's nature and a more reliable developmental plan for his showcase and rebuild-defining trade of his second tenure with the Twins?
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- alex meyer
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Again, not arguing the point. (My Santiago reference was more towards his history of shorter outings and the Angels willingness in giving Nolasco the ball every 5 days and the likelihood of him hitting 400 IP over 2016 and '17). Getting rid of Nolasco was the prime objective at the deadline, Antony accomplished that objective... and paid the going rate in ridding himself of that awful contract. And Boras extracted his pound of flesh as part of that equation.
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- alex meyer
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I'm not arguing the point... I'm just wondering if Santiago is actually an upgrade... the numbers don't necessarily suggest that.
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- alex meyer
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Yep. I'm thinking Santiago shouldn't be doing a lot of house-hunting in the Twins Cities- the Twins are looking for guys who can go deeper into games to keep the pen from being overworked- Santiago over his career has averaged ~5 1/3 IP/gm as a starting pitcher.
- 382 replies
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- alex meyer
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Presumably, since Ryan is no longer part of the equation, the days of granting extensions based on the "loyal soldier " theory are over.
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- alex meyer
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And yet they were trotting out Hector Santiago every 5 days- and he averages 1/2 an inning less per outing than Nolasco (5.45 IP/game vs. Nolasco's 5.94 IP/game) and of course, Santiago has nearly a one-run per game higher FIP than Nolasco.
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- alex meyer
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Viola!.... Nolasco has averaged ~7IP/game over his last 4 starts. (It's amazing what the body can do with a "little extra motivation" from pitching in a contract expiration/optionable year, plus your teammates, managers, coaches, agent and an ex-wife or two can do for your innings production)
- 382 replies
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- alex meyer
- ricky nolasco
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Money isn't really a factor in Anaheim.
- 382 replies
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- alex meyer
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There's an awfully good chance that Nolasco gets to exercise a player option in 2018 @ $13M. (400 IP over 2016 and 17).
- 382 replies
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- alex meyer
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It's a bitter bill to swallow to have to use the "fresh start" lingo when discussing THE defining trade and the key acquisition at the center of the rebuild during Ryan's second tenure with the Twins. Still, that's the going market rate when unloading $20M+ of salary dead-weight.
- 382 replies
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- alex meyer
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