jokin

"Connolly writes that "landing a first baseman or designated hitter with pop is a real possibility." His sense is that the Orioles will make a deal either at the Winter Meetings or within a few days of their conclusion. Executive VP Dan Duquette told reporters on Sunday that a power bat is his biggest target, and that the addition would likely come via trade as opposed to free agency." Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/baltimore_orioles/index.html#hGvCPvj8bWcZ618S.99 The Orioles have a BA Top-10 starting pitcher in Dylan Bundy and have other pitching depth. Are they looking to move salary as well? The answer is "Yes" as both Roberts and Hardy have been speculated about as trade bait. Do the Twins have what the Birds want in Morneau/Willingham/Prospect(s) to make this happen?

That's not what I meant. Everyone and their brother attempted to take an extra base on Revere they wouldn't attempt to take on people with real MLB arms...I'm sure you saw that. What I noticed about his arm this year, he throws better with his feet planted as opposed to getting a running start before throwing. Like taking one off the wall, turning, and throwing. Yup, I saw what you saw, the good, agressive managers had a field day on advancng 1st-3rd. I attribute that mostly to the (proper) decision to keep Span in CF for showcase/future trading value purposes, that would be much less of an issue with Revere in CF or LF. Didn't Revere have a few tag-up put outs, so that going forward and releasing in one smooth motion showed improvement? His arm is weak... No doubt... But I seriously don't know what you guys saw... I watched the majority of games... There were times when the runner went first to third with Revere in RF... And in my opinion... Moments where they may not have attempted that on Francour... But let's not make it sound like it was a first to third party going on. It wasn't... Its the type of statement you make when you know someone has a weak arm but they were not running wild and that is the impression you are leaving. And let's be honest on the other side... He gets to the ball quicker and gets it in quicker... I don't care if a 4th grader is holding the ball in RF... If the ball is in his glove and the runner hasn't rounded second... He ain't going... Serious embellishment going on here... His arm is weak... Got it... No argument... It will cost the Twins a run on occasion... No doubt... He doesn't have the Harper Hose... The problem with these discussions as Puck pointed out. Is that it makes people draw lines in the sand... The pro Revere crowd like me end up losing our objectivity because we end up defending him... the anti or non Revere crowd end up disliking him more and yeah... I think they lose objectivity as well.. I don't want to shove Revere down anyone's throat... I shouldnt have to... hes done well... And Im trying to stop... But c'mon... He gave it and I assume he will continue to give it... He was a first round draft pick and he was a 3rd round projection. No organization is going to reach into the 1st round unless he's knocking the ball around the park... And no team is going to reach for a pick unless they see something and think another squad saw something as well... That is why they reach... To get your guy... If Revere was showing no arm and No power he ain't going in the first round. Can we agree on that... I know some people think Terry Ryan and the front office are idiots... They are not that big of idiots... They are not taking a light hitting fast guy projected in the third round in the first... Jerrod Dyson went in the 50th round... That's where the fast guys who can't hit go... 50th round. Was it a first round mistake? If you look back at 2007... There only a few of that class in the majors right now so I'd say no... With hindsight you could claim Frazier... d'Arnaud or Luebke may have been better choices in that slot... But with that same hindsight... 11 teams that drafted before the Twins did... they would be loving Revere instead of the guy they got. You are also looking at a kid... 1st round pick who was not stalled in the minors for a second... Rookie... A... High A... AA... Majors... Advanced like clockwork... He hasn't failed yet... At any level... including the majors... Whatever is thought to be wrong with him by some on this board... It didn't hold him back for a second cuz... here he is. I,m not sure what measuring stick you are using... But a 1st round pick who advanced thru the farm with no stalling has to have value. So I'm pretty confident we have some undervaluing going on but it's clear that opinions are not going to change... So I'm really gonna try to stop now... But Like the Godfather III... Someone is gonna pull me back in. If people talking him up is bugging you... Even if its embellished... Cheer for a different team please... Talking up White Sox players bugs me... I'm a Twins Fan and Revere is good baseball and he's a Twin... Talk him up all you want. And I would not extend him at this time. RB, I don't know if you were responding to me specifically or not. I was actually on your side in the debate and my position was that it wouldn't be a fatal mistake to consider extending Revere, but a low-risk way to possibly keep a guy cheap and tradeable for a bit longer and avoid an arbitration upside surprise bump somewhere down the road. The vitriol that came out against Revere based on OP/ WilliHammer's suggestion surprised me a little and I just wanted to throw a little love the way of a kid who appears to care about his career and is an asset to the community. I previously boned up on his biography and saw what you saw. His professional numbers to this point are what they are and deserve scrutiny, I just thought for a guy who hasn't embarassed himself or the club in his first two years deserved a little more respect and benefit of the doubt that he still can improve his areas of deficiency. Regarding his arm deficiencies, I watched nearly every game as well, and my perception is the agressive-running teams did take advantage of Revere in 2012 in RF. With that said, we agree that he made major strides in efficiency with balls in front of him or parallel in returning it to the infield. He may have even increased his arm strength some, too. He clearly wasn't guilty of frequently missing cut-off men or throwing rainbows home or to the wrong bases, I guess that makes him coachable, which further suggests he can improve in other areas, as well. Too many on this board consider him a finished product, despite evidence that players can and have improved their numbers significantly heading towards the age of 30. Your numbers regarding his held runner efficiency is good evidence in support of your case, but I would defer to Puck to point out what I'm missing in answer to your case. I like a guy who is easy to like and appears to want to be here, on this trainwreck of a team, for the love of the game. By the same token, when/if the time comes for him to go, I understand that it's a business. Is that so wrong?

Looking at Rosenbaum's numbers and left-handedness, what's not to like? Another "Diamond" in the rough who looks to be a better starting pitching option, now, than most of the guys who had tryouts on the Twins wretched staff in 2012. I didn't look around the web, but is there something else holding him back???, you said 2 years in AA, but he only appeared in 6 AA games in 2011. I hope he is on the Twins radar. I like that 2B man -with the proviso, "if"- he can field his position. Who it is that signs them always says something positive as the Nats have drafted well. But the Twins need pitching. If you want someone with the best chance to stick, 3 relievers: Ryan Pressly RHP reliever, starter previously with mid-90s speed or Josh Fields RHP age 27 K/9 =12.5!! (has reached AAA, originally a Mariners signee) Jon Keck 6'6" LHRP Mid-90s speed with multiple pitches. KC pitcher, so big ?s The high upside guys: Braulio Lara The Rays found him and we all know their scouting pedigree. Lefty SP who throws 98 on the gun. Doesn't turn 24 until the end of the month. If he develops a 2nd "out" pitch, could be huge. Juan Sosa. RHP A little younger (just turned 23 last month) with highly regarded mid-90s stuff waiting to put it together. Has been used primarily in relief. Phillies signee. I'd say take Rosenbaum, Josh Fields or one of the flyers, Sosa or Lara- as it sure would be nice to find another Santana or Liriano languishing in relative obscurity.

Didn't hurt he was our best option at CF either Not sure about that, he was a terrific RF and I would have taken the trade-off at flipping the RF and CF (the new CFer's best position is CF, not right, which was his worst), if it would have mattered in the standings. He was rated as the 3rd best defensive CF in baseball this year. That's darn good. I'm comfortable in saying he was our best option. I know Revere has the speed, but I'm not quite comfortable with him reading the ball of the bat well yet. He misjudges a lot. RF is more forgiving in that regard due to less space to cover. His UZR was very high in RF mostly due to having a lot of bad RFs to compare him to I agree with you- Span is better than Revere in judging the wall and obviously has a better arm. He doesn't nearly cover the ground anymore that Revere does, but I still think with Span being better than Revere at both positions based on experience and arm, it would have been better to have Revere in CF--- but again, only because it would have maximized what Revere does best and minimize all the runners who advanced two bases on him (1st-3rd, 2nd to Home) that would have had much more respect for Span in RF. Again, this only would have mattered in my way of thinking if the Twins had had any chance of competing, and the opposite positioning being employed could have been evaluated within a month and just as easily proven you to be correct. Since you're still here...one more thing...concerning range. Span was rated as having the third best range of any CF and the 4th most plays made outside of zone. Again, the amount of plays might have had to do with the chances, but the range (RZR) was still top notch. Now I'm really out, I swear :-) To me that's one of those eyeball-test-failure stats. Span to this naked eye anyway (perhaps it was my built-in assumption of his concussion-wariness), appeared to be much more conservative in his approach this year, back a step deeper and a little less relentless attacking the wall and he botched his fair share of sure outs into plays ruled as hits or errors, I also perceived some deferral to the RF at times, perhaps that's why both their scores might be a little artificially higher?

Thanks, same goes.

Didn't hurt he was our best option at CF either Not sure about that, he was a terrific RF and I would have taken the trade-off at flipping the RF and CF (the new CFer's best position is CF, not right, which was his worst), if it would have mattered in the standings. He was rated as the 3rd best defensive CF in baseball this year. That's darn good. I'm comfortable in saying he was our best option. I know Revere has the speed, but I'm not quite comfortable with him reading the ball of the bat well yet. He misjudges a lot. RF is more forgiving in that regard due to less space to cover. His UZR was very high in RF mostly due to having a lot of bad RFs to compare him to I agree with you- Span is better than Revere in judging the wall and obviously has a better arm. He doesn't nearly cover the ground anymore that Revere does, but I still think with Span being better than Revere at both positions based on experience and arm, it would have been better to have Revere in CF--- but again, only because it would have maximized what Revere does best and minimize all the runners who advanced two bases on him (1st-3rd, 2nd to Home) that would have had much more respect for Span in RF. Again, this only would have mattered in my way of thinking if the Twins had had any chance of competing, and the opposite positioning being employed could have been evaluated within a month and just as easily proven you to be correct.

If we have to wait till 2014, 2015 (two, three seasons) and he's only a #4 pitcher, we got straight up robbed. You really think there's any chance he debuts in 2013? Especially given the Twins' M.O. of slowly advancing prospects? I think 2014's a pretty good bet but 2015 strikes me as more likely than 2013. Will I be disappointed if Meyer ends up only a #4? Absolutely. But I don't think two years of Span, even with his team-friendly contract, was going to draw a return much larger than that in an MLB-ready player, anyway. Nope, I absolutely don't...I've been saying 2015 myself...but if he makes it, and I absolutely believe he will, I don't think he'll just be a number 4 2015 is the most realistic DOA. Would love to see some combination of Johnson and Verlander from the new Staff Ace. To go with Gibson, Diamond, Wimmers and Berrios on the fast-track in June of that year to replace the latest Jason Marquis flop. We can still hope, can't we?

Didn't hurt he was our best option at CF either Not sure about that, he was a terrific RF and I would have taken the trade-off at flipping the RF and CF (the new CFer's best position is CF, not right, which was his worst), if it would have mattered in the standings.

The last quote belies what certain posters have proffered on TD, ie "that 20 out of 21 times, a player always takes the most money on the table". My guess is that TR's early contacts with agents around even the second-tier SPs have told Ryan that their clients would have to absolutely blown away in an offer to even consider the Twins- and there ain't no way that Ryan is going to ridiculously overbid. I agree with your last paragraph completely. See AsburyJohn's quote for your last comment- Being GM is a very very tough job. Shooting for .500 will be a tall, tall order............ talking out of the side your mouth to agents, the fans and the media about "contending" has to represent a Migraine-inducing level of Cognitive Dissonance.

Hope this hasn't been said yet but I'm rushing. Sorry. Patience fits both sides of the coin in this story. Rizzo was likely reluctant to take Span mid way through the year when he was still a bit more of an unknown vis a vis his concussion recovery status. Denard made it through, as we know, with flying colors, so that question mark for Rizzo goes away. If that's the case, that's good work by both GMs. It didn't hurt his value to remain committed to him CF, as well. Well played by the GM.

That's not what I meant. Everyone and their brother attempted to take an extra base on Revere they wouldn't attempt to take on people with real MLB arms...I'm sure you saw that. What I noticed about his arm this year, he throws better with his feet planted as opposed to getting a running start before throwing. Like taking one off the wall, turning, and throwing. Yup, I saw what you saw, the good, agressive managers had a field day on advancng 1st-3rd. I attribute that mostly to the (proper) decision to keep Span in CF for showcase/future trading value purposes, that would be much less of an issue with Revere in CF or LF. Didn't Revere have a few tag-up put outs, so that going forward and releasing in one smooth motion showed improvement?

No doubt that the Twins pitching staff gave him more chances, just as every other OF had more chances to demonstrate their abilities, a hearty thankyou is in order to our pitchers for listening verrry closely to their coaches about the importance of pitching to contact.

Nobody is tearing him down. Pointing out that he has zero power, no arm and projects more as a 4th OF isn't tearing him down, it's just reality. Nobody will be more happy then me if he proves me wrong, I just don't see it. There was evidence presented that what we have seen thus far from Revere isn't necessarily a finished product. I just hated seeing a guy who has brought his own brand of positivity to 2 dreadful Twins seasons so ripped-upon by his own fan-base. The fact that there might be some other teams out there with interest confirms that I was at least on the right path. Right or wrong, and likely wrong, I imagine a lot of the issues people have with Revere probably stem from the team and our announcers drooling over him...basically forcing him down our throats constantly....severely exaggerating his play. Especially his rookie year. One could argue that with so little to be excited over, they had to focus on him, but still, the constant comparisons to Puckett got old. One of my favorites was the poll on which of 5 plays was his best, failing to mention that 3 of those were clearly due to him misplaying the ball off the bat to begin with causing him to make a great play instead of a mostly routine play. His defense got better this year, but he still lack in OB skills, he still lacks an arm...he needs to be much better to deserve the praise he gets. He's likely never going to be close to Puckett, I think even DicknBert would admit to that. Not only did his defense improve this year, he improved at the plate (admittedly not a quantum leap, to be sure), his arm- or at least his approach at getting rid of the ball more quickly and efficiently- did show great improvement this year, did I read that he led the outfielders in assists? That he showed improvement with his given athletic skill set and off-season work habits, hopefully means he can make another jump at improving his categories of deficiency, which you accurately point out. As an example, Carlos Gomez was a far goofier, vastly more undisciplined player as a Twin. Look at Go-Go's progression from age 22 to age 27: OPS #s: .592/.651/.623/.655/.679/.768 FWIW, Fangraphs valued him at $9M last year and $15.8M in 2012 Look at Revere ages 23 and 24: OPS .619/.675 And he is an immensely better baserunner than Go-Go- again, FWIW with a grain of salt from Fangraphs, they establish his value in 2011 was $9M and this year it was $15.2M. An optimist would say he's ahead of Gomez at the same point of his career. Who wouldn't be thrilled if he could consistently hit .725-.750 OPS and bring what he brings on the basepaths in the #9 slot in the batting order?

You start the free-agency (and arbitration) clock a year, or maybe two, early. While the Twins don't necessarily have to view themselves as bottom feeders, they can't waste the high-talent/low-wage years that the CBA gives them. That, at least to me, is the answer to "why not". You can make the trades you outline, but decent talent for a two-year bridge needs to be found as replacement. That's a fair argument...one could also say nitpicking a player's game to death in the minors or staling him might take away confidence. Yes, it's a balancing act. You can't (and shouldn't) let a player waste productive years in the minors just because it's not his "turn" yet - for one thing you'll find it much more difficult to sign your draftees in years to come. But, if they are not yet productive, i.e. they are brought up and allowed to "struggle", then that side of the argument starts to weigh less, and you have the converse problem of establishing a certain amount of complacency is allowed in the players because 'hey, they don't have someone they can replace me with anyway'. A GMs job is just hard. I keep coming back to that. Point well taken, especially in these parts. Still, the 84-86 kiddie Twins as a model for future success isn't necessarily a bad one for the current GM to emulate. I think you could sell a group of exciting young players to the extended fan-base if they are honestly given the right expectations, not the hemming and hawing propaganda line from St Peter, St Antony and St Ryan. Even now, as Jim Crikket so aptly pointed out, they are using party line subterfuge, all the while going after the Marquis-Plus bargain bin starters to fill out the rotation. It would be refreshing if they would just admit that 2013's going to be a struggle and go from there.

Nobody is tearing him down. Pointing out that he has zero power, no arm and projects more as a 4th OF isn't tearing him down, it's just reality. Nobody will be more happy then me if he proves me wrong, I just don't see it. There was evidence presented that what we have seen thus far from Revere isn't necessarily a finished product. I just hated seeing a guy who has brought his own brand of positivity to 2 dreadful Twins seasons so ripped-upon by his own fan-base. The fact that there might be some other teams out there with interest confirms that I was at least on the right path.

Your point may be moot, Revere apparently is already drawing some interest, if you could you get a C+/B- rated "A level minor league experience SP for Revere, this whole discussion is academic. Or, does "teams with pitchers on the block" mean a Vargas-type from Seattle? from MLB Traderumors: "Although the Twins seem to be looking at plenty of pitching options in free agency, the team has also been more active in trade talks than expected, says Crasnick. Teams with pitchers on the block have approached the Twins about both Ben Revere and Josh Willingham." Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/minnesota_twins/index.html#ty30IECPbULUgyHk.99 If a team offers any SP (or SP prospect) of value for Revere the Twins need to hop on it ASAP. They already have a superior option who is almost MLB ready in Aaron Hicks. I would prefer not to start Hicks clock this early this year, but if it brings back pitching, go for it! Hoo-Rah. We have finally found something that we are in 100% agreement on. I just hope our mutual faith in Hicks being the real deal is realized (even though it's been just one year of the "real deal" so far)- a guy who would bring to the table the BEST traits of both Span and Revere and hopefully those other tools that neither posess.

I would be careful making any judgements using stats. He was a college pitcher with an upper 90's fastball playing in A ball. he could have been missing his spots by a mile but still getting swings because he was flat out better than the competition. It wouldn't surprise me if the walks rose quite a bit as he moves up in the minors. FWIW - I like Meyer more everyday and I'm going to try not to get carried away but I also can't wait to see what he does in AA and hopefully AAA this season. This is shaping up to be that kind of year for Twins fans. Many, if not most nights in 2013, it's going to be far more interesting finding out what's happening in New Britain and Rochester (and even the A level teams for that matter). When is the last time for the Twins that there was a collection of guys with these kinds of high ceilings who are either knocking at the door or are possibly a season or two away? Since the Twins have essentially admitted that 2013 is a throwaway, I am strongly in favor of more trading and signings with an eye focused on 2014-5, heck, it might be worth it to get the MiLB video package

OK. So Good News, on at least one aspect of Alex Meyer's future, Cameron and Dave have reached Common Ground.

Your point may be moot, Revere apparently is already drawing some interest, if you could you get a C+/B- rated "A level minor league experience SP for Revere, this whole discussion is academic. Or, does "teams with pitchers on the block" mean a Vargas-type from Seattle? from MLB Traderumors: "Although the Twins seem to be looking at plenty of pitching options in free agency, the team has also been more active in trade talks than expected, says Crasnick. Teams with pitchers on the block have approached the Twins about both Ben Revere and Josh Willingham." Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/minnesota_twins/index.html#ty30IECPbULUgyHk.99

He did address the MI- Buh-bye- Nishi, Lexi.... Hello- Florimon, Escobar and Field (well, Field for 15 minutes, anyway) There. Fixed. Next?

Or Billy Beane. Or Andrew Frieman. But hey, they're just keyboard GMs. I assume you assume they would always, without fail, strictly take the sabremetric argument to determine player value, and I concur it has merit, especially in a small market team with little leeway for making a personnel error. There is also the fans-in-the-seats and more Neilsen rating points for FSN argument, too. Plus you have an an extremely athletic guy at 23 who clearly has a potential for a significantly higher ceiling. No, I'm saying that they use a surplus to their advantage by trading it off, they don't sit on that surplus and wait for it to lose value. As for Revere, I keep hearing "expected improvement", "significantly higher ceiling", etc. etc. What are all of you basing this on? The fact that he hasn't posted an OPS higher than .741 since low A? That he hasn't been a plus hitter since Beloit? Brian freakin' Dozier dominated AA for almost an entire season. Revere couldn't even do that. Beyond trying to snatch hope and dreams from the skies, what is the basis for this faith in Revere? Because his on-field performance has said very different things for 4+ years now. Revere may be an acceptable centerfielder. I'm not saying there's no hope for him as a player. My argument is that there is no evidence to support that he will be a plus player. He has no power. He has no patience at the plate. He hasn't been a good hitter at any level since 2009. Every skill he has as a baseball player is based around the fact that he can run really, really fast. And baseball is historically unkind to those types of players. This isn't sabermetrics. This is observation through 100+ years of the sport. Guys who have one tool tend to fall on their faces, especially if that power is speed. As for Bourn, his upcoming contract is irrelevant. We should be laughing at whoever Boras hoses into paying that guy big money going into his 30s, just as many of us laughed at Seattle when they did the same for Figgins. How'd that work out for the Mariners? What makes anyone think Bourn is going to hold up as he ages? He's the exact kind of player that doesn't hold up as he hits his 30s. Just because some teams are willing to throw bad money around doesn't mean the Twins should follow suit, particularly when all the cards are in their favor (ie. they have five more years of control of Revere). This is Baseball 101 and pure common sense, folks.[/QUOTE] Your assertion then, is that only you have a monopoly on the "common sense trait" and that at least a half a dozen GMs who actually pull the trigger on multi-million deals are cluelessly in over-their-heads? Which one of those jobs have you been interviewed for yet? Newsflash---the top players always get overpaid, especially in the out years--- and I believe that was the point in how this thread started, this isn't a break the bank, "outyears" deal, yet the guys on your side are lining up to club the baby seal. You've unfairly "Chonesed" poor Ben Revere just as he turns 24 at the start of his career, not 34 at the end of his career, like Figgins. Geez, this topic didn't start out talking about a Michael Bourn contract for Revere, this is about $15-$17M as a 3-year extension bridge to age 30 when the physical breakdowns usually start, the Twins would be mortgaging or risking very little in a deal like this. And if, as you assert, MLB is apparently replete with potential GM "hosees", a deal to "palm Revere off" on one of the many suckers, anywhere along the way, will be a pretty simple task, the Mariners aren't going anywhere.

Exactly. There is a reason why teams aren't going around giving Juan Pierre multi year deals. Except that Michael Bourn, is being pursued by multiple teams offering monster numbers. Here is clearly an exception to your assertion He's obviously a better player than Pierre, but here is the combined for WAR for both: Juan Pierre WAR- 5 seasons, ages 26-30- 16.1 Michael Bourn WAR- 5 seasons, ages 26-30- 20.3 Pierre career batting: .336/.363/.700 Bourn career batting: .344/.363/.707 Thus, a good percentage of the difference in WAR is clearly defensive, an average of .84 WAR/yr during their prime years and yet, Bourn is about to break the bank.

Exactly. There is a reason why teams aren't going around giving Juan Pierre multi year deals. Does that mean Denard Span's deal was a mistake?

I think Pierre is close to Revere's ceiling. But yeah, not a bad comp at all. Revere and Pierre entered the League at approximately the same age. Pierre made $3.7M, $5.8M and $7.5M ($17M) in years 6, 7, 8 of his career (ages 28,29,30). While Pierre ultimately topped out at $ 10M, Michael Bourn is about to get between 5/$85 and 6/$100 on the open market. If Revere got locked up for an additional 3 years past/during arb (ala Span) for $15-$17M (which Bourn will possibly make in 2013 alone), that's a pretty good risk/reward ratio.

If there is, it'd involve Salty, so Ross really doesn't change that. That said, it'd be incredibly surprising for them to make that move after just dumping the long-term deals that they did. The Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, et al, don't rebuild from the ground up. I would be surprised if Boston's 2013 payroll doesn't quickly jump up here during the FA sweeps/ trading season, and then in 2014, quickly returns to historical averages.