jokin

---Really? Detroit had the 7th-best record in the American league last year (playing a much softer schedule than the 6 teams from the other 2 divisions who finished with better records) and needed a late-season collapse from a very mediocre White Sox team to even get to the post season Yes, they have some very talented guys, but they are a stars-and-scrubs team, very top heavy without a lot of depth. Once you get past Verlander, Scherzer, Fielder and Cabrera, what do you really have there? A team with holes in its lineup that is bad defensively and has a suspect bullpen. Certainly, the Tigers would have to be considered the favorite to win the division going into 2013, but they're not some unstoppable powerhouse, the fact that they got hot for a couple of weeks in October notwithstanding. The signing of Torii and V-Mart's return makes them not unstoppable, but certainly prohibitive favorites to not only win the Central but enter as the clear favorite to win it all in 2013: Odds to win the 2013 MLB World Series from BETONLINE: Detroit Tigers 6/1 New York Yankees 7/1 San Francisco Giants 10/1 Texas Rangers 12/1 Washington Nationals 12/1 Los Angeles Angels 12/1 Philadelphia Phillies 14/1 St. Louis Cardinals 14/1 ---Those kinds of odds do not make the Tigers a "clear favorite to win it all." That kind of oddsmaking started immediately after the World Series ended, before any offseason activity took place. http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/eye-on-baseball/20740003/detroit-tigers-favored-to-win-2013-world-series I'm sure they'll change quite a bit between now and opening day. You're right that they'll change and for the record, I hate the Tigers style of play, but given the Yankees currently in freefall and steadfast on holding on a current payroll at ~$180M- and the Rangers still not sure about their lineup for 2013, you've essentially now extended the odds of both of the other 2 AL teams on this list. The Giants are pretty much standing pat. As you point out, the oddsmaking began BEFORE the signing of Hunter, given all of these facts, as painful as it is for me to declare, the Tigers are currently the clear favorites to at least MAKE the World Series, if not take it all.

I think that boat has set sail. Greinke is trying for $25M and anything close to that lifts all the other boats in the water. Haren just signed for $13M and all the guys you mentioned will ask and likely receive at least that much and possibly much more.

If that comment wasn't enough to convince Nick Nelson and the gang that Ryan is punting, the re-signing of Liriano should put it over the top.

---Really? Detroit had the 7th-best record in the American league last year (playing a much softer schedule than the 6 teams from the other 2 divisions who finished with better records) and needed a late-season collapse from a very mediocre White Sox team to even get to the post season Yes, they have some very talented guys, but they are a stars-and-scrubs team, very top heavy without a lot of depth. Once you get past Verlander, Scherzer, Fielder and Cabrera, what do you really have there? A team with holes in its lineup that is bad defensively and has a suspect bullpen. Certainly, the Tigers would have to be considered the favorite to win the division going into 2013, but they're not some unstoppable powerhouse, the fact that they got hot for a couple of weeks in October notwithstanding. The signing of Torii and V-Mart's return makes them not unstoppable, but certainly prohibitive favorites to not only win the Central but enter as the clear favorite to win it all in 2013: Odds to win the 2013 MLB World Series from BETONLINE: Detroit Tigers 6/1 New York Yankees 7/1 San Francisco Giants 10/1 Texas Rangers 12/1 Washington Nationals 12/1 Los Angeles Angels 12/1 Philadelphia Phillies 14/1 St. Louis Cardinals 14/1

As we talked about in another thread, the two pitchers in this draft with a significant chance for impact in 2013 were Josh Fields and Danny Rosenbaum, unfortunately, the Twins were just "good enough" in 2012 W-L to draft one pick after they were taken. They went with the guy who could give possible pen help in 2013. Still, they should have gone after Braulio Lara or Juan Sosa, I'm disappointed, especially considering how they drafted in June and traded for Meyer and May here recently. This was worth the gamble when it was clear they couldn't get Fields or Rosenbaum.

They can not possibly believe Mastro can be a full-timer, even in a transitional season, can they? I don't believe they do, indications are that at best he's some sort of stop-gap for Hicks, Benson or Arcia until May or June. This has probably been stated elsewhere, but Ryan gave his full endorsement to Benson to make a play for the job, so they're likely going to hold back Hicks until at least June- so The Maestro and Benson it is!

Unfortunately, you have to factor the trade into the totality of all the moves thus far, the loss of Span, plus Revere, is crushing to the top of the lineup and to the OF defense. Again, Worley pitches one in five games, Span and Revere played virtually every day of the week. And when he pitches, Worley, like any starter, has about as much power to affect the outcome of the game as the other 9 guys combined. Revere was a fine ballplayer, but any organization that considers the loss of a .330-ish OBP from the top of a lineup "crushing" isn't going anywhere anyway. Given that the Twins entered the offseason with a 2013 rotation with only one certain member, and one with only one year in the majors to boot, it seems to me like they've had their doubts about contending in 2013 before the winter meetings even started. A quick and dirty WAR comparison says Revere/Deduno = Mastro/Worley in 2012, with Mastro playing part time and Worley missing a quarter of the season. I think they have a good chance to equal or exceed what Revere and Deduno might have done/ will do for the Twins in 2013. But you omitted the part of my comment about the crushing blow being the loss of Span and Revere. I'm confident in my belief that Mastro is not going to replace that loss and Revere's WAR will rise as a CF while Deduno getting a WAR rating close to the value of Worley only shows how imperfect WAR is as a tool. Quick check of BR oWAR combined w/ BR pitching WAR shows Revere/Deduno @ 2.3 and Mastro/Worley @ 1.1, quite different than Fangraphs WAR ratings.

The defense is looking pretty shaky, too. All indications in the media are that they will move W, M, whoever- if- the return in trade is acceptable. They're apparently "shopping" them. "Chris Kluwe calling on Line 2"

Gausman is probably unreachable, but what happens to the Nat's Desperation Meter if they lose Adam LaRoche? There are still enough quality prospects in the Nats org to get a good multi-player deal if they really hit the panic button.

I'm a bit worried he said sometimes you can't give your money away. Unrecoverable & sunk costs cause Ryan and Pohlad to lose sleep at night, they simply have to talk up Blackie, to show other teams they think he still has value and to keep their budget numbers intact, as self-delusionary as it is about any hope for a Blackie-Bounceback. Does that mean free agents don't want to play for us? Yes! Is that why a Blanton went to the Angels? Yes. If you had the option of those 2 teams and the Twins offered an extra $1M/yr or so, would it really make you change your mind? I know it's been discussed a lot about playing here and what not, but we are viewed as a losing organization for next year. Is makes me wonder do we really have a shot for Marcum or McCarthy? 2 chances- and Slim's face is currently on milk cartons. Would we even get a Lannon or Saunders? Doubtful. Ryan would have to overbid for a #4-5 starter, with arm issues besides. There's a reason guys like Liriano and Correia are being bandied about as possibilities. Moreover, the Twins must not like Lannon or they could have induced the Nats to throw him into the Span/Meyer trade. One of these somewhat average or semi-okay pitchers has to sign with us, correct??? It will all depend on what they try to sell us is "semi-okay". It's sad, because a year ago they could have easily acquired Maholm and/or Bedard and they would practically be staff aces now.

I think the Twins woudl take it and run (as they should). I cannot see the Sox offering up much, but if they were desparate, I'd start at Boegarts, Barnes and Lavarnway at a minimum. I could see taking Salty as well just to have someoe behind the plate in MN. That said, this is a pipedream...[/QUOTE] Probably so, but there have been a few headscratching, WTF trades made in the last 6 months that tend to say almost anything is possible (And Boston was already one of them). When Edes is clamoring for it, and then joined by Gammons, there's probably fire behind their smoke.

IMO, a Salty or a Wieters (back to the Orioles apparent interest in another bat) would have to be part of the trade. They cannot go through the next couple of bridge years with Butera as the #1A C along with Doumit.

Unfortunately, you have to factor the trade into the totality of all the moves thus far, the loss of Span, plus Revere, is crushing to the top of the lineup and to the OF defense. Again, Worley pitches one in five games, Span and Revere played virtually every day of the week.

Reading this post, I'm not clear how adding just Vance Worley/subtracting your lead-off batting CFer w/ no obvous replacement- and- the premeire defensive RF- makes this team better. One additional mid-back-rotation starter stabilizes and balances the team but one day a week

Honestly, I'd want more than what they have. Willingham gives the team a real masher. Without him, the offense will really struggle next year. They can't trade him for some B-/C+ arms (which is what the Reds have). I think Tony Cingrani will have moved his ranking up considerably from the preseason, likely at least an A- now? You would have to consider a deal with him a part of it. Goes with exactly the strategy they are currently pursuing. Is there a MI to pluck out of the Reds org., too?

The big failure in Philly last year was their bad offense and injuries. Heading into this year Philly has plenty of pitching, but a ton of holes on offense. The Twins have/had a ton of holes pitching wise and quite a bit of CF/O depth. This trade makes both teams better for 2013. And the Twins much better for 2014+[/quote] '14 yes. '13 is still up in the air regarding the Twins. As of today, December 6th, there are now more holes/???s in the roster make-up than last year.

Is that supposed to be an indicative of some change regarding Joe Mauer's status as a Twin?

Great summation, except Gardy could very well be replaced during the 2013 run if the start is as abysmal as the two previous seasons.

What's the line in Vegas on this outcome? Book it!

While I don't entirely disagree with much of your post, I want to focus on this. Dempster and Marcum will hamstring the payroll as bad or worse than Mauer and even when combined, equate to a similar amount of wins (Mauer is roughly a 5 win player, Marcum/Dempster combined are 5 win players). Both are older than Mauer and from 2013-2015 (not getting either for less than three years, probably more with Marcum), will be more expensive and declining more rapidly than Joe due to advanced age (mostly Dempster). To boot, to get both those guys, you're looking at paying at least $25m a year, probably more. Keeping Mauer is a risk. There's no denying that. But considering free agent salaries this offseason, Mauer's production per dollar is actually good compared to what these other clowns are getting on the market. It's absurd to think that BJ Upton is a $15m player or that Jeremy-freakin-Guthrie is an $8m guy. And just LOL at Shane Victorino at $13m. This offseason is bananas. If you even manage to get rid of Mauer, that $23m you spend to replace him is going to bring you less in return than Joe. With that said, I'm not against trading him if a team offers the farm for ol' Joe. The Twins moves are indicating that a chief priority in rebuilding the pitching staff is getting much younger. The days of Pavano signings are over for now. They appear to be aligning a team like the early 80s team, a young group all playing for a pittance and taking their lumps while maturing together to make a strong run like they did from 87-92 and 04-10. This philosophy demands that if the Sox would make an offer something close to Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, Salty and a SP, you have to make that deal for Mauer.

Funny how it works that way, isn't it? The true fans are more excited than ever while casual fans are moping that we "lost" Smiley McGee. Still one more kick in the rear?

But, but....."Revere is a nice-guy, worthless, low-ceiling nobody"....

Barring any acquisitions, my guess is second with Carroll slotting in first (unless Hicks grabs that spot). This is the right order slot for Mauer, but Gardy will never do it. Flori/Esco/Dozier/Carroll gets slotted 1 or 2 until Hicks gets the call-up.

The Twins absolutely have the money to do both. It's just unfortunate that the middle infield class is so weak this offseason. You mean FA MI class, right? Because there were/are certainly MI potentially available in trade. Right now, there are at least half a dozen AAA teams that have a better MI rotation than the Twins do, embarassing, and potentially the prime diaster point for 2013.

Hey Chris, get a Kluwe, Gardy certainly doesn't want them to punt in hopes of keeping his job, but given their likely horrible defense this year, likely regression of certain players, likely continued salary dump trade(s) and the unwillingness/inability to sign/acquire 2 high-yield SPs makes it all but certain that this year will be booted away.