jokin
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Everything posted by jokin
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Deduno has reduced his FB% usage from 42% last year to 27% this year. His much more reliable cutter usage has gone from 17% last year to 33% this year. I'd say it has been Deduno that has made more of an adjustment than his opponents. Keeping that crazy FB around as the joker in his deck of cards, but on a more limited basis, has helped to keep him out of more trouble, kept him in games longer (6.1 IP/gm this year vs. 5.1 IP/gm last year), and still serves to keep his opponent uncomfortably guessing at the plate. I agree that he's always been and always will be a tightrope walker, it just appears that- as evidenced by this year's success, which evidentially can not be attributed to extraneous "luck" anomalies- his improved approach has built him a little better safety net than in years past.
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How can anyone argue against the Twins exploring all potential pitching options that essentially involve zero risk on their part?
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Rich Harden and Rafael Perez are in their 30s, Jurrjens is only 27. Seems like much-less-likely-answered prayers have already been put to use by the Twins FO this season. Jurrjens has a better chance at recovering full effectiveness than Jarred Burton had when the Twins signed him.
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Blackburn had a not-so-good outing tonight in AA. I'm guessing he'll be in the Twins rotation at some point before the season in done. Worley will also be back.
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I think it's fairer to say that he's a pitch to incredibly "weak" contact guy. In looking up his numbers, I see that he leads the league among starters in GB% @ 61.1%. That's a good thing, and the type of GBs he typically gets is even a better thing. He's historically been a strikeout pitcher before this year, I'd say the tradeoff this year is that with far more reliance on his cutter as the better out pitch than the crazy FB, he's cut way down on the walks, with the same weak contact results. His trade value has to be very intriguing to a lot of teams this month - but I'm not so sure that his trade value will never be this high again- he really is a different pitcher this year than at any time in his career.
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Is the Gibson timetable realistic for at least getting back on the mound and returning to competitiveness? Wimmers had his TJ last August 2. Gibson had his TJ on November 7, 2011- he was pitching rehab, Rochester and the AFL, all in 2012. If all goes well through to the end of the regular season, Wimmers could also go to the AFL and then be pitching on opening day in either Rochester or New Britain in 2014 with the Twins by 2015- good news (with fingers crossed).
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Pohlad also said as much. Howie was right in one respect though in his guess, Twins management and ownership appear to be feeling "okay where they are at."
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This appearance by Wimmers would make him a little ahead of the timeframe on Gibson's rehab schedule, I believe. Good news has been hard to come by of late, I welcome your report wholeheartedly.
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Twins' prospect Alex Meyer's return date still unknown
jokin replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Terry Ryan said to get true quality pitching prospects at a reasonable rate of return, you have to reach down to "A" level minor league ball, but then it's still pretty costly when you pull the trigger. OK, since you say we only need 3-5 more "top starting pitching prospects" to overcome any of these "nothing more" than "inconveniences", where are the 3-5 more Denard Span's to get those deals done? -
BR, in the splits.
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The far more compelling roster is at New Britain, and if Trevor May gets the start tonight, it's where I'd be headed. Albers is going for the Wings, so that might float your boat. Pawtucket has the superior ballpark, McCoy Stadium.
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There's a 10-day rule when someone is sent down, but I'm thinking that there could be a trade and/or someone DL'd as part of a mid-season shakeup. It looks like Arcia is going to need some major work on getting back to the approach that was so successful for him until very recently. While his numbers for the whole month of July are red-flag disturbing- his slash is .159/.196/.182 with a 37% K-Rate- his numbers over the last 7 days have spiraled down to Hicks-in-April levels of ineptitude- .042/.080/.042, with a 52% K-Rate. I'm guessing getting him out of this funk will end up requiring more than just a couple days off the field and in the cage with a tee- hope I'm wrong, because I loved his approach at the onset of his call-up- he's far, far away from that guy at the plate now.
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Mauer's slash line w/RISP in 2013: .262/.410/.295/.705 Mauer's career slash line w/RISP: .338/.457/.487/.944
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Twins' prospect Alex Meyer's return date still unknown
jokin replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
On this one, double-secret, extra-cautious works for me. -
It's only 6 active SPs, DeVries is on the DL. Probably go with a 6-man rotation for now.
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A surplus of Starting PItching depth for the Twins? Whoda' thunk it?
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The Red Wings are playing in Pawtucket, at 6PM Saturday night. In a little over 2 hours drivetime from Yankee Stadium by car, Arcia can play Sat., Sun., and Monday with the Wings and then again on Thursday. It would be kind of like a rehab assignment- only missing 2 games and playing 4 "rehab" games. Heck, it's only an hour and a half from Yankee Stadium to New Britain, he could play 6 games with the Rock Cats between Saturday and next Thursday. Chris Colabello can be brought up to play in left field for the Twins, or hit off the bench. The Twins won't do it, but they should consider it- Arcia is an absolute mess right now.
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The "arm situation" should put Revere at a more severe disadvantage in RF vs. CF. Here's what the "defenders" of the metric say about their stat: "DRS uses Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) data in calculating its results. It’s important to note that this data is compiled by human scorers, which means that it likely includes some human error. Until FIELDF/x data gets released to the public, we are never going to have wholly accurate defensive data; human error is impossible to avoid when recording fielding locations by hand, no matter how meticulous the scorers." "● DRS is comparable to UZR in terms of methodology (e.g. the use of “zones” for evaluating defensive success rates) and results. " And yet, Revere's 2011 UZR is wildly different in CF than his DRS. And how did his RngR plummet in CF between 2011 and 2012-13? Was he really a "near Gold Glover" rating, via UZR, in CF in 2011... only to morph into a "below average" CF in 2012-13. His strengths and deficiencies in the OF pretty much have stayed the same, IMO.
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Twins' prospect Alex Meyer's return date still unknown
jokin replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
This. The position players coming through the system make this as exciting a time in expectation of the "turn" as 2000-02 and 1984-86. But even if the Twins get above median performance from 100% of their position players (including filling the gaping hole at SS), pitching is still 70% of the game. So until the starting pitching staff looks more like the Pirates, Tigers, Braves, hec, even the Marlins, who are ranked 11th overall in SP ERA, there is no reason to throw around any guarantees that "the turn" (ie, assured contention status) is right around the corner. To their credit, the Twins have recognized this glaring hole in the long-term plan, now they need to redouble their efforts. -
I'll take the "Over".
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Which certainly almost guarantees a still lower payroll in 2014 and likely 2015. Kicking Gardy upstairs, ala Tom Kelly (which I think is the most likely scenario), gives the club the perfect rationale for doing so. This immediately creates lesser expectations on the W-L side of the equation for the near-term, and a return to the 1990s marketing ploy of : "The Minnesota Twins....Get to Know Em!"
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Per your request, an updated list, with a commensurate change in my assessment of the NL qualifier for the K/9 differential: Jason Marquis 3.28 K/9 Twins 7.6 K/9 Padres Jesse Crain 6.22 K/9 Twins 10.56 K/9 Sox Kyle Lohse 5.01 K/9 Twins 5.60 K/9 Since traded RA Dickey 5.88 K/9 Twins 6.83 K/9 Since traded Kevin Slowey 6.67 K/9 Twins 7.20 K/9 Marlins Matt Guerrier 5.91 K/9 Twins 6.53 K/9 Dodgers Matt Garza 7.11 K/9 Twins 7.68 K/9 Since traded The trends are all negative, but I'm not sure they are statistically significant. What if the question is asked in reverse, how much does a pitcher's K/9 drop after joining the Twins?--- Vance Worley 4.62 K/9 Twins 7.71 K/9 Phillies Kevin Correia 5.04 K/9 Twins 6.04 K/9 before Twins Mike Pelfrey 4.90 K/9 Twins 5.08 K/9 before Twins Josh Roenicke 5.77 K/9 Twins 6.81 K/9 before Twins Matt Capps 5.39 K/9 Twins 6.93 K/9 before Twins Carl Pavano 4.83 K/9 Twins 5.75 K/9 before Twins Probably the National League effect to a certain extent.
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Yes, that is true. His career-high GB rate and 4.21 ERA (career ERA 4.60)- both achieved in 2012 with the Pirates- were why Terry Ryan was able to publicly say that his scouts had assured him that Correia was "better than his career numbers" indicated.
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DRS has to be subjective. How does Revere go from 11 and 8 DRS in 2011 and 2012 to -2 DRS in 2013? Is he really having a turned-on-its-head defensive turnaround from the player he was the 2 years previously? Or is the current "judger" just giving him lower overall scores for his bad arm? His OOZ plays-made is going to easily surpass last year's number- when his defense was supposedly rated at a league elite level (~15 UZR). On defensive rankings in general, how is Hicks rated negatively by Fangraphs and positively by Baseball Reference? Does each rater take into account completely differently how deeply Hicks positions himself? Or how shallow Revere positions himself?
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The Pirates pitching coaches have been incredibly effective in getting results. Getting career-best type numbers from all types of pitchers: journeyman-types (Jason Grilli), more suspect than prospect types (Jeff Locke), broken down and highly expendable -types (Mark Melancon), rookies (Gerrit Cole, Justin Wilson), obscure types (Jeanmar Gomez), and with talented, but historical underperformers (AJ Burnett/Francisco Liriano). Interestingly, while all of the above are having years at or near peak performance, not all of them are showing a peak year in K/9 rates. I've already called for it, hire the pitching coaches.