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jokin

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Everything posted by jokin

  1. jokin
    Maybe he has ths problem out of the stretch, but in this video I see a high kick, a long stride and very little shoulder stress. Pretty muscular-looking thighs and glutes for 6'1" and 160#s. http://talkingbaseball.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/thorpe3.jpg
  2. jokin
    Excellent point on Dozier insurance....but also note, he's the exact same age as Presley (29 in 2014), better plate discipline, obviously more versatile, better base stealer. I'm not sure where his defense rates in CF, but he could replace Presley, too, when Hicks finally sticks for good, followed by Buxton. The only difference being, Ryan evidently likes Presley and especially likes the value he represents at minimum cost and Presley doesn't even become Arb-eligible until 2015- I'm fairly certain paying Bonifacio $3.5M is something Ryan doesn't want to do, if at all possible.
  3. jokin
    You're illustrating the sad plight of the Twins current situation, as I demonstrated in my post, this sub-par utility castoff, is a definite upgrade to the Twins current projected lineup.
  4. jokin
    On Escobar, I'm one of them, given the low-level options that the Twins are currently throwing out there. And just because Florimon is playing, doesn't mean he should be playing, there's a reason why he's scuffled through an 8 year professional career with a major league .602 OPS.
  5. jokin
    Not following you here. The league average in 2013 OBP was .318. If Bonifacio hits that as a Super-UTIL guy, his infusion in various positions in the lineup would still be much better than the current alternatives. With him in the lineup, plus Arcia, you would now have 4 out of 9 guys in the batting order who project at or above, league average in OBP.
  6. jokin
    Yup. Plus those smooth mechanics- which should mitigate some of the health concerns and, with a developing body, portent another incremental velocity uptick eventually to the mid-to-high-90s. All of which is why I think he should be ranked as the #3 Twins overall pitching prospect, behind only Meyer and Stewart.
  7. jokin
    Bonus? Who are we kidding? Bonifacio would be both our #1 option to bat lead off, (especially against LHSP- career .342 OBP) and our prime base-stealing threat until the arrival of Buxton. Both Steamer and ZIPS project an OPS for Bonifacio in the .655 range with 31 steals, in 451 PAs. According to both services, his 2014 OBP of just under .320 would be higher than everyone except Mauer and Willingham.
  8. jokin
    Bad strategy going into the draft, UNLESS, Turner is the BPA. (Levi Michael was a huge 1st round, "draft for need" bust).
  9. jokin
    Nothing like that, at all. This is liking a similar, but younger, Taxi Squad QB over the incumbent third-string QB.
  10. jokin
    Forget any notion of "inheriting", Meyer should be aspiring to taking Hughes' or Pelfrey's spot.
  11. jokin
    Couldn't it work just as well if we just call him "Glen"? (Glegne Amleiv)
  12. jokin
    Therein lies the rub. Color me thoroughly unconvinced with some flawed or problematic assumptions. And ....it also turns out that my own net .825 OPS projection from 1B was very optimistic. I would argue that their projections from .745 OPS/DH and .697 OPS/C are similarly even more optimistic and wildly more conditionally-based....RE- .697 C? unless Pinto moves into the full-time role sooner rather than later....AND....hits like he did last September. This is a very optimistic forecast, that to this point doesn't fully reflect the very potential reality of the team starting out the season with Pinto in AAA and Suzuki as the starter and either/or Fryer/Hermann as the backup(s).... I would argue that my number was more realistic. .745 DH? and Jason Kubel gets 400+ PAs at DH and somehow semi-miraculously beats his average projection from 3 services (Steamer/Oliver/ZIPS) of .706 OPS-----the only way this .745 number is realistic is if Willingham successfully rebounds AND gets significant PAs at DH, AND that Mauer is factored in for far more DH ABs than I project. The DH net number I projected- being closer to .700 OPS, again seems more realistic.
  13. jokin
    Which is precisely what the Twins should do, once they win the claim.
  14. jokin
    Besides pooh-poohing the notion that Guerrier (or Bartlett, for that matter) have any chance of making the Twins opening day roster yesterday evening, Patrick Reusse had this to say about Kubel in his most recent Strib blog, I tend to agree: http://www.startribune.com/sports/blogs/243120681.html
  15. jokin
    The Twins can certainly do both, and that's exactly what I'm advocating for. (Incidentally, both LEN3 and Reusse lampooned the idea of Guerrier having ANY chance of making the club- Bartlett, too- Kubel, slightly better chance, but very negative on his chances for helping the Twins----- how do you conclude that they somehow have the potential to bring a higher ceiling prospect than a 26 year old smoke thrower- one year removed from a terrific year?). I prefer also bringing in guys that have a decent, and more realistic chance at helping the club- for just about the same cost! There also is a current roster spot available, and certainly Villareal can be DFA'd at any point between now and April 1, whenever the timing is right, dependent on how interested the Twins might be at retaining his services, longer term.
  16. jokin
    Beresford is going to be a utility player if he makes it all. I can easily envision a greater sense of urgency on getting Santana up to AAA sooner rather than later, and until Rosario is reinstated, the MI would be pretty thin on legit prospects at New Britain. Why not Aderlin Mejia playing 2nd? With Levi Michael given one last shot at SS? I really want the decks clear for Goodrum to move up to Fort Myers to keep him on the upward trajectory.
  17. jokin
    Velocity being the other?
  18. jokin
    Sounds like the Twins are fading on Yoon, unless they are somehow one of the 2 teams allegedly still talking with Boras: http://www.mykbo.net/KBO_news/february1stsrandomkbonews-1 That statement is slightly contradicted with this three-day earlier statement, that indicates the Twins are one of those teams likely priced out of the hunt: http://www.mykbo.net/KBO_news/january29thsrandomkbonews-1 Boras had made it known a few days ago that Yoon would probably have a deal by the end of this coming week, thus, it's difficult to imagine that the Orioles and Giants were visiting for any reason other than a dog and pony show.
  19. jokin
    I agree, and in this instance, this is why I find Ryan's methodology somewhat flawed in pursuing his quantity theory, particularly when he was seemingly bidding up the price against himself to ink Pelfrey- particularly with so many other better (and sometimes even cheaper) options available- who wouldn't take Garza instead of Pelfrey, if there were that many available excess dollars to be spent in trying to sign both?- it's now pretty obvious that a slightly more agressive stance in pursuit of quality would have strengthened the rotation significantly.
  20. jokin
    MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince says that "platooning and position-sharing is here to stay" http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/anthony-castrovince-platooning-and-position-sharing-in-mlb-here-to-stay?ymd=20140131&content_id=67311170&vkey=news_mlb : Not so surprisingly, the A's were right near the top, with 70.5% of their 2013 PAs under conditions that favored the hitter. More surprisingly, were the Indians, who edged out the A's at 70.6%, and the Twins, who were 5th at 60.4%. I think the Twins number was artificially inflated with all the switch hitters employed, as there wasn't any obvious platooning going on. By contrast, the A's are planning on platooning at 4 positions, and the White Sox, who finished at the bottom of the AL in favorable batting conditions, is now planning on full-time platooning at 3 positions in 2014. Strategic "position sharing" is a concept whose time has apparently arrived: Indians manager, Terry Francona, the 2013 champion of using the platoon advantage, summed up the impediments to successful implementation: Regardless, the Twins could benefit by arming Gardy with consideration of every potential and available platoon option that can possibly upgrade this underpowered 4-cylinder offense to at least a (Not So) Straight 6 engine. (To answer the bullpen-overuse concerns from the loss of ML pitching option, use more pitchers with options remaining as your depth, and shuttle them back and forth from Rochester).
  21. jokin
    Quote from today's MLB Traderumors, hopefully Terry Ryan factors this type of further statistical grist to the mill to the point that he is still considering Capuano as an option: Time to scoop up the bargains as the prices are falling? http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/al-west-notes-garza-ortiz-appel.html
  22. jokin
    I'm on board with you Doc, on all three moves, and Capuano, too- obviously, I want more success on the field sooner, rather than later. I can only surmise that Deron Johnson and the braintrust are convinced that the draft is so deep this year- ie, the 2nd and 3rd round picks in 2014, plus the high-end 1st round pick in 2015 (as the result of yet another 90+ loss season), project to be the better overall value, at a fraction of the initial outlay on each, for the long run.
  23. jokin
    If you re-read my words, I didn't suggest either-or, or specify any one pitcher opposed to signing Guerrier to a minor league deal; and I also agree, that the signing of Guerrier is inocuous, in and of itself. But, the Twins in their current situation should always have their eyes on younger, better upside talent that might be around when the Twins become a contender. Fien and Burton, guys who resurrected themselves from the scrap-heap are the guiding force for this sort of "grand strategy" and it has served the Twins quite well. And unlike both of them, Villareal is 4 years younger than them at the same point of potential acquisition, and unlike Fien and Burton, are only one year removed from a better season than either Fien or Burton ever had previous to their signing with the Twins. So while neither may or may not be likely to be around when the Twins contend, niether are Fien and Burton, but not so curiously, both of the latter two are still around, why not kick the tires on an upside guy like Villareal?
  24. jokin
    I would counter by surmising that his value may never be higher than during Spring Training this year, when the unforseen injury knocks down a pitcher that was being counted on by another team., and Option B (C, D) is less palatable than Correia.
  25. jokin
    Yup. That's why all of the reports in the media that the Twins have continued to pursue Arroyo have been head-scratchers- unless- they have been fairly certain that they can move Correia for a reasonable return.
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