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jokin

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Everything posted by jokin

  1. jokin
    Let me add my "This" to this, as well as acknowledging your "^^^^This" to that. "This" is good commonsense reasoning...... barring major injury, and based on other teams developmental experience in past similar draft position for potential Ace high school arms, many of us have had the reasonable expectation that Stewart ended up being mentally slated on our prospect list for a call-up at some point during 2016, moving up 2 levels per season, with perhaps a short repeat of AAA in the spring/early summer of 2016. Again, James Shields worked his way up through 6 minor league years, including 3 years when his MLB future was in great doubt, but he was a 16th round draft choice: Ranked as #27 Rays prospect after his fiirst season, 2001, age 19. Injured, out all of 2002 season. Ranked as #31 Rays prospect after his third season, 2003, age 21. Ranked as #31 Rays prospect after his fourth season, 2004, age 22. Ranked as #12 Rays prospect after his fifth season, 2005, age 23. Ranked as preseason #10 International League prospect, 2006, age 24. ..... Stewart isn't Shields..... there are much different expectations for a Top 4 overall pick and the #4 prospect in an organization with 2 of the best prospects in baseball ahead of him on the Twins list who deserve having top-flite pitching accompanying their own rise to the majors. If Stewart isn't on the prudently-managed, but still fasttrack developmental curve, with a 2016/2017 objective for his MLB debut, something's wrong here.
  2. jokin
    Except for Jamey Caroll....
  3. jokin
    Everything you said is why ML Baseball is as compelling as life itself, why it's the world's greatest reality show literally played out on a daily basis for 7+ months of the year....full of a few Goliath's yes, but it also allows for a few David's to surface annually (and the David's are coming out on top more often these days!) and a lot of bean-counting teams that are just along for the ride (and the media and revenue-sharing paychecks); and the game's also replete with individual characters of varied virtue and skill that fall somewhere inbetween hero and villain- ie, guys without obvious stuff who somehow pitch effectively until they're 49, and guys with all the stuff in the world who go through their own mini-Shakespearean tragedy and are out of baseball before they hit their prime. In the case of the Twins, success in 2014 has to measured by a return to respectability, which besides the W-L record, would also partly be defined by no more articles and media reports from the punditocracy ridiculing the "Twins Way" as a metaphorical punching bag. Getting up off of the canvas of the last 3 years with a little self-respect shown by a few more of the characters that make up this team will go a long way in my book to making this season a success.
  4. jokin
    I would quibble a bit with this conclusion. We do have an idea of what he can become.....or the Twins wouldn't have taken a shot at him with such a lofty pick...... at this point, what we don't know is if he will become that potential Ace/#2 arm. I can live with that and with what we know about his background/makeup and still fairly anticipate a shorter development process than 6 years. Certainly, our expectations for a quicker return on investment with Stewart are reasonable, compared to say, another high upside arm like Louis Thorpe, with whom we can be far more comfortably patient over a longer time frame.
  5. jokin
    Caution is one thing. What John was alluding to was quite another thing, as he was making Keith Law sound like somehow the Twins getting Stewart to the majors "before this decade is out" is akin to the enormous gamble that this country and John Kennedy took in attempting a landing on the Moon. I do prefer the prospect of a 2016 debut.... so I can come down from the ceiling now?
  6. jokin
    Excellent points, both. You could also look at it from another developmental perspective, the Rays drafted James Shields in the 16th round and it took 6 years for him to debut, which seems about right. Does anyone think they would have to tinker with a higher upside arm like Stewart for anywhere near that long?
  7. jokin
    At this point, I'd settle for splitting the difference, but thanks for something more positive to dwell on.
  8. jokin
    Up to 6 years to begin (to only possibly) getting dividends on a high-end first round pick? For an athlete of this level? The fact that he wasn't a baseball-first guy was sold as a good thing. Something seems askew here with this transaction- definitely not the type of high-end pick in the Twins standard MO. I don't remember any discussion of this "crudeness" in his form leading up to, and right after, draft day- this whole deal now sounds a lot more speculative than last June. And a comp with Trevor May? By Trevor's own admission, he isn't the greatest athlete. Again, a truly great athlete like Stewart should respond more quickly to a training regimen than 6 years to refine and master his motion and strengthen his arm, especially if he already has 4 pitches in his repertiore to varying degrees of success and effectiveness. Let the grumbling begin.....and apparently, start looking for yet another high-upside arm next June
  9. jokin
    Well said Doc, and pretty much where I stand on Turner, but I also think that Goodrum is due for a break out and this could be the year. Hopefully Michael gets pushed up to AA for one last chance and Goodrum and Polanco can start out in Ft Myers and ride the wave together up the organizational ladder pushing each other and inevitably pushing others out of their way.
  10. jokin
    Thanks JC. Let me add this intriguing extra tidbit on Goodrum from your PM to me: "Has some range and decent speed. Gets a good jump (better than Buxton, honestly) when he does try to steal a base." So it appears that the jury is going to be out on all 3 of the top SS prospects for the time being- 2 "tweeners" and one "Florimon +??" Very interesting indeed, both longer-term on who might win out, but also with the draft coming up and Turner available.
  11. jokin
    I am aware of how good Turner is and I'm looking forward to the chance of snagging him in the draft.... and I don't dispute your assessment, whatsoever. But there have been rumblings that he could drop a little in the draft, whether that's primarily because of other players (pitchers besides Rodon?) moving up or if the leverage he has as a junior might be used to force himself onto a team more to his liking and a much-higher-than-slot bonus.
  12. jokin
    Any word on who is agent might be? If he's clearly the BPA, I hope they pick him, but I could see the Twins missing out on signing him if it's someone like Boras representing him, ala Appel.
  13. jokin
    Turner at SS ought to be ineresting. But I think the rest of your prediction is quite likely.
  14. jokin
    Polanco could very well be the guy that takes Dozier's spot away from him- probably not a SS. Santana appears that he will be a slightly better version of Florimon and takes the job away by default. Goodrum spent 3 years in Rookie ball- a red flag?, but he did have a very decent year at Cedar Rapids, Sickels took a liking to him and his athleticism- "2nd only to Buxton". which intrigued me quite a bit when I saw him play and I couldn't argue with Sickels on that point . A 6'4" athletic SS with a strong arm and good plate discipline is well worth keeping an eye on as he moves up to Fort Myers. Call out to Jim Crikket for his more knowledgeable review of Niko.
  15. jokin
    At the plate, I agree, although Arcia had a .245 point difference in his L-R splits in the minors, versus Rosario's .111 point difference. And Rosario did have a .904 at Ft Myers. Let's see if he hits the ground running in late May at New Britain. Plus Arcia projects longer-term as a DH, while Rosario would be a Plus-Glove as a Corner OF.
  16. jokin
    I would think that the Twins would be very hesitant to try Dozier again at Short, given the previous disaster there- although they might act on your logic for doing so- if Rosario can really force the issue. I think with the overhanging suspension issue, this is shaping up to be a huge year for Rosario in terms of the Twins future plans for him (or lack thereof). He's one of the Big 4 who I will be watching for progress reports on a daily basis- I hope this whole bad experience for Eddie puts the world's biggest chip on his shoulder...and come late May....the Eastern League pitchers pay dearly for that chip....followed by a similar experience for the IL hurlers in August....and then a September call-up.
  17. jokin
    End of June, you say? Which year? {Cue "Red Skeleton" theme]
  18. jokin
    Robinson Cano started out his minor league career at the opposite end of the fielding spectrum @ SS, and a little 3B, before moving him full-time to 2B in his 3rd professional year. 2 years and a month more in the minors at the position, he still struggled the first few years, and it's fair to say he grew into the position. Rosario may never have the glove that Cano has, but his career thus far at the plate makes it extra-desirable to see how this experiment plays out, as he could definitely become an MLB top-5 offensive Second Baseman based on the #s below, and Dozier would be the one traded instead. Compare the Minor League numbers of Cano and Rosario, both are 6' and similarly built, and imagine Rosario, when he puts on the 20 additional pounds of muscle that Robbie currently plays with: Cano (5 years Minor League): .278/.337/.425/.756 Rosario (4 years Mi. League): .307/.358/.510/.867
  19. jokin
    From MLB Traderumors: More breakdown on Arroyo and his contract relative to other pitchers out there http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/02/paul-maholm-and-the-starting-pitching-market.html In a nutshell, the theory is, the offseason market has fallen so low for mid-/back-end-rotation starters, that LHSP Chris Capuano might now be available for LHSP Jeff Francis-type guaranteed money ($1.5M in 2013). "If not, though, Maholm's deal doesn't bode well for a pitcher like lefty free agent Chris Capuano. Capuano's value has been similar to Vargas or Maholm the past three seasons (with 4.8 total fWAR)................ Given Capuano's tendency to pitch reasonably strong innings when healthy, though, he could give his next team great value. Maholm's contract could be a bargain for the Dodgers, and the team that picks up Capuano could be in line for a bargain as well."
  20. jokin
    Right on- your comment is right at the heart of the situation. Last year we had a DFA acquistion starting at Shortstop and a guy coming up from AA batting leadoff and playing CF with no major league level back-up option, plus close to half the bullpen and most of the reserve players sprinkled in and out of the daily lineup were DFA/Waiver/minor league-FA acquisitions. Of the 44 players that appeared in a Twins uniform in 2013- 18, or 41%, were picked up off of Waivers, Rule 5 or unheralded Free Agents. As long as we swim in waters with that 41% level of speculative talent inhabiting the roster, the DFA/Waiver Wire discussions will continue- because there's an excellent chance that an upgrade is out there looking for a job. (And on a slightly related note, I'm all in favor of being a buyer in July/August instead of the dumpster diving, getting a quality player or two on 2+ years left on an unexpired contract). But mainly, let's get more of the guys who actually represent the future on the field- that's my low bar for a successful season.
  21. jokin
    This is right about where I'm at with JB, but I still have my doubts about how much propsect stature to give to a potential closer. The Sulbaran comparison to Berrios in 2013 didn't exactly strengthen his case, and 2013, while maybe not a step backward for Berrios, still has to give pause to those still granting him his still-lofty status as a future MLB starter: Both 19 (and within 2 months of each other in age) Both 2nd year of professional baseball Similar in stature 2013 stats in A ball- Sulbaran- 113 IP/2.96 ERA/2.71 FIP/1.26 WHIP/8.1 K*9/3.16 K*BB Berrios- 103 IP/3.99 ERA/3.44 FIP/1.40 WHIP/8.7 K*9/2.50 K*BB It's very early, to be certain (A-ball numbers have to taken with a grain of salt from a 19 year old, I fully acknowledge that), but if a "smallish" 1st Rd. pick expects he's on his way to an MLB starting rotation, he is going to have to start putting up some superior standout numbers in the next 2 years if he's going to stay on the starting track, certainly superior to an unheralded guy who was acquired for Drew Butera. Even maintaining this 4.00ERA/3.44 FIP with K/inning numbers over the next 2 levels has "reliever" written all over it.
  22. jokin
    So we can agree that, the many services that do rank Abreu as a higher prospect are likely correct in their assessment. From your own words, "most rankers would say that Eric Johnson is a tad better or a tad worse than Berrios." This seems to validate why Johnson might voice a dissenting vote, especially since he has already had great success in AAA and already passed his September MLB cameo with flying colors. On Micah Johnson, that was my own wild card, that I threw in for fun. He looks to potentially be the Sox's version of Brian Dozier, both 2B, mid-round college guys that look solid, but whose ceiling is undeterminable, until it isn't. Dozier was 23 playing A level, where he hit .278/.347/.338/.685 and got promoted anyway, and kept improving his numbers. at each successive level. Johnson by contrast, just started his 2013 year out at A level at a year younger, age 22, where he hit .342/.422/.530/.952, got promoted 2 levels in-season, and dominated the AA Southern League playoffs winning the MVP. And he beat out Billy Hamilton as the Stolen Base leader, with 85 SBs. So not a power guy, but potentially a very dynamic player who forces his way onto and up the prospect ranking ladder. Hopefully, Berrios makes the same kind of jump in the next couple of years, but it looks like it's going to take mastery of another pitch for him to realize his current lofty ranking.
  23. jokin
    The Bronson Arroyo=Phil Hughes=Chris Capuano projections from multiple services for 2014 boggles my mind. 60-day DL Deduno, let Worley get a shot in the Pen and see if the Braves want Diamond back.
  24. jokin
    Right. And don't forget 2B if....... God Forbid......What if Dozier or Florimon were to go down for an extended length of time? You could slide Bonifacio right into 2B and move Dozier to SS if Florimon went on the DL. And wowzer points on Clete in CF, RB. I've been blocking that image for my own mental health. We had a AA-level guy who played more than half our games in CF last year, and some of us are balking at the prospect of picking up a legitimate major leaguer for next to nothing with the proposition of getting back-up time at the position.
  25. jokin
    His OBP is projected to be around .330 or higher--- that's a cherry that this team needs to pick. This is well above league average of .318. He has an OPS at .332 over the last 3 years, even with his bad time in Toronto- can you accept the possibility that there might have been underlying issues that contributed to such an outlier of a performance with the Jays? Given that the Royals saw enough positive in 2013 and were very willing to re-sign Bonifacio at $3.5M for 2014 before they found someone better......and that the Twins won't be on the hook for anything close to that number, that it's at least worth a look to find out for certain if it really is "a waste of a roster spot." (I still see close to a dozen guys on this current roster that we would never miss if the Twins parted ways.)
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