Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jokin

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    11,852

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    8

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jokin

  1. jokin
    Therein lies the dilemma... the question comes down to when both sides of the coin, as you listed above, come together. As of now, it's debatable if Escobar and Plouffe will still be relevant when/if? the Twins' pitching and offensive stars finally align. Can the Twins stand pat with their current SP depth and positional lineup, add Meyer to the rotation to start out 2015, and expect to be contenders out of the gate? Will they go all-in to win and get into the FA SP market again and get a Shields? (Which then leaves the next question.... If the decision is made in the offseason that 2015 is to be another 3rd down punt, as they soon will lose starting gigs, when to move them?.... In the offseason.... or by next July.... if either is deemed the prudent course, to maximize the return).
  2. jokin
    Because that statement has been demonstrably shown to be incorrect. By age 28, the average player is already in their decline phase- and I would suspect even moreso- for the 15 players on the Rochester and New Britain rosters. Look at what the 5 older players who were back and forth from Rochester have contributed to the Twins this season (Fryer, Cola, Florimon, Johnson, Pino).
  3. jokin
    I"m not certain why you would assume something like that. Calling up a top prospect in a losing season is really elementary for many teams- look at the Cubs. Further, Ryan has stated that Santana is now the long-term heir apparent at SS, which leaves Polanco possibly looking for a position to play two years from now. And since there is no other full-time playing option available right now, what's the objection to having Polanco up with the Twins, again? Every day, every minute, that Polanco can train and play at this level can be of potential benefit to him for when he finally is ready for the full-time major league gig.
  4. jokin
    And there's no reason that Polanco can not be additional depth at 2nd, 3rd and SS. Dozier and Plouffe can still play at close to their regular schedules, just sneak Polanco into games in the last 3 innings or so, just like in Spring Training. His "struggles" at AA? .281/.323/.342 in 39 games hardly suggest that he needed to be shut down for the season at a risk of losing his swagger. IMO, he is at the age, coupled with the stage of his development, where he would best benefit by getting as many reps at possible, at the highest level available. Once the Twins put him on the major league roster, the clock was now ticking on his career track. Unless, we're now suggesting that he is hereby officially "blocked" by Escobar and Santana for the next 5 years.
  5. jokin
    Lots of other players to evaluate, but let's be honest, not much upside in most of these evaluations. And what's wrong with Polanco getting in games 4-5 times a week at various infield positions to pick up some late-inning reps and PAs, just like in Spring Training? (FWIW, I saw Polanco in Cedar Rapids in 2013 after Buxton was promoted, and he looked like the one "major leaguer" among the position players, so yes, he deserves being on the fast track). As Glunn stated, in any capacity this month, it can only help a kid like Polanco to keep taking it all in at the highest possible level, like a sponge.
  6. jokin
    Yep, the cupboard is pretty barren of anything but very marginal major league quality, at both AA and AAA, The exceptions, a couple sure-fire starter prospects (Meyer and Berrios), a few relievers and maybe a starter or two that show some promise, and very little else, if anything, with the exception of Polanco, and probably still Rosario, if he gets his act together in the AFL, but they now look like 2016 debuts, at best. Meanwhile, AAAA-ness abounds at both levels. A total of 15 players between the two levels that are age 28 or older. (7 of 13 Roc. position players age 28 or more, for a total of 10 in all- by comparison, the Twins major league 25-man roster has 12 players over age 28). Hopefully the wave coming up from Ft Myers in 2015, plus Sano and Buxton, clears away much of the roster detritus at the upper levels.
  7. jokin
    I disagree about Polanco. The guy is absorbing baseball acumen like a sponge and appears major league savvy well beyond his youthful age. They should have kept him playing part-time with the big club, getting a few reps at 2nd, 3rd and SS, while serving notice and challenging the current lineup to not get too complacent about their spots, as Polanco continues assembling the building blocks towards his very bright future.
  8. jokin
    Here, here! It seems a September call-up would have been the natural progression for Polanco based off of his terrific 2014.... setting him up nicely for a possible scenario of starting out in AA, then a bump to AAA in 2015, with a possible call-up before season's end next year. I don't get calling up a guy who will be Thirty-Five Years of Age next year, particularly at the expense of a budding 21-year old, who has already shown major league savvy and aptitude....and may very well be a key building block in the rebuild. Call up Bernier as a reward for loyal and outstanding AAAA-level service, fine, but his time in September should be mostly limited to a front row seat in the dugout.
  9. jokin
    Bernier's reward should be a decent seat in the Twins dugout. Not sure that every pitching option was explored fully. Unless something's physically wrong, why isn't Pryor up?.... and Polanco should have been included.. no question that he's earned, and would benefit from another call-up. Even with a crowded infield, he could have subbed in, in late inning situations, at multiple positions.
  10. jokin
    All true points, spycake. I first posted to counter the suggestion that Plouffe was little more than a horrible option with virtually no value.... and that, if a given random team were to consider the alternatives, they could choose to commit $48-$75M on one of the big 4 FA 3rd baseman (and the attendant risks that each presents), or.... trade a fairly decent prospect perhaps two or three years away and get Plouffe for ~$12-$15M in total for the next 3 years, and then use the excess unspent cash to good use at another spot, or spots, on the roster. It seems that there must be close to at least a dozen teams that might fit those parameters.
  11. jokin
    Not 90% of position players when you take into account the expected production from those 4 positions. Aren't cheap? Look at the available FA 3rd baseman in 2015. Alberto Callaspo (32) Jack Hannahan (35) – $4MM club option with a $2MM buyout Chase Headley (31) Donnie Murphy (32) Nick Punto (37) – $2.75MM club/vesting option with a $250k buyout Aramis Ramirez (37) – $14MM mutual option with a $4MM buyout Hanley Ramirez (31) Pablo Sandoval (28) Ty Wigginton (37) Kevin Youkilis (36) I bolded the cream of the 3rd base crop. Hanley is demonstrating only 2.5 bWAR, and with his WAR value puffed up at SS, and is oft-injured. Aramis has a 2.1 bWAR, even though he's having a decent year, and has barely played in 100 games. Headley's bWAR is 2.4. Sandoval is at 4.4 WAR These guys will all be requesting annual salaries of well-North of $10M/year, most of whom will presumably get multi-year deals (Aramis is due $14M if the Brewers exercise his option), It could be argued that Plouffe, as a clearly cheaper alternative for the next 3 years to similar older, more established, but more likely to either decline or be injured, players, makes it possible for some teams to move those saved payroll dollars to lock up higher-end FA pitchers or different position players.
  12. jokin
    No doubt he's a streaky hitter. But he has produced decent production numbers overall, with a markedly-changed approach at the plate, far less of a one-dimensional pull hitter, the effect of which has slightly lessened the negative impact of his slumps***. And there's no doubt to most, including both top rating services, that he's improved defensively, which makes him a little more palatable to allowing him to play through his slumps. *** With still a month to play, look especially at the huge number of additional balls hit to the RF gaps and corner in 2014 vs. 2013: http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/charts/gen/4618582013040120131005AAAAAspray-chart.png http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/charts/gen/4618582014033120140831AAAAAspray-chart.png
  13. jokin
    I'm not sure why you keep saying Plouffe's a "2 WAR 3rd baseman". As of today, BRef values Plouffe at 3.2 WAR, Fgrphs gives him 3.1 WAR. At this pace, Plouffe would project to a full-season WAR of 3.8. In 2013, only 9 players, in total and listed at 3rd base had fWARs of 3.0 or greater for the entire year. And as his current overall WAR ratings say- he's well above average in WAR..... you keep calling him an "average hitter", as well, but the stats for 2014 say he's at the least, slightly above average. Here's a counting stat to further indicate how productive Plouffe has been, relative to the position, this season (even though he's played significantly fewer games than all of those listed): XBH by 3rd Base 1) Rendon 58 2) Plouffe 53 (ranks third overall in doubles for all position players, behind only Lucroy and Cabrera) 2) Donaldson 53 4) Seager 50 5) Harrison 50 6) Beltre 44 7) Frazier 44 8) Sandoval 42 There are aspects to Plouffe's career and current status that might potentially make him a desired commodity, namely, 3 more years of cheap cost control, relative youth to most of his peers, possible positional flexibility, and that amazing home run streak in 2012 might remain intriguing in the backs of the minds of certain GMs who play in a park and/or are a team built for power.
  14. jokin
    It's August 31, and for the sub-.500 MLB teams now irrelevant to post-season play, they are about to enter the roster-expanded month of September, where many of the remaining games more closely resemble those played in the March exhibition season. With that in mind, and the implication that the games left on the schedule hold less meaning in terms of wins and losses, here's a year-over-year comparison of the entire list of 14 teams that finished with losing records in 2013, and a grade measure- strictly based on number of additional, or fewer, wins- versus the same August 31 date in 2013, to gauge relative improvement in on-field results. (Letter grades partly took into account how the teams performed in September, 2013). Major League year-over-year increase (decrease) in victories, August 31, 2013 vs. August 31, 2014 (Note that the first 7 teams listed below in bold have either already exceeded their win total for all of 2013, or are within 2 games or less of doing so) LA Angels +22 Grade- A+ Miami Marlins +17 Grade- A+ Houston Astros +15 Grade- A San Francisco +14 Grade- A Milwaukee Brewers +14 Grade- A Seattle Mariners +12 Grade A- Chicago White Sox +6 Grade- B Toronto Blue Jays +8 Grade- B- Chicago Cubs +5 Grade- C+ San Diego Padres +4 Grade- D+ New York Mets + 3 Grade- D+ Minnesota Twins +1 Grade- D- Philadelphia Phillies +0 Grade- F Colorado Rockies -10 Grade- F-
  15. jokin
    One word: "Affiliates!"
  16. jokin
    "slightly above" (see post # 17) But yep, no way do you get a Meyer-level potential trade without throwing something else fairly significant into the pot (would Pressly even be enough?).
  17. jokin
    Good call. Based on his promotion to AAA with Berrios to bolster Rochester's playoff hopes, I'm guessing he's held higher on the Twins hierarchical RP chain than Thompson.
  18. jokin
    Stat line averages for MLB 3rd Basemen: OPS .714 wOBA .316 wRC+ 100 ISO .139 fWAR 2.29 vs. Plouffe: OPS .739 wOBA .324 wRC+ 106 ISO .169 fWAR 2.9 As the stats above indicate, Plouffe has had a slightly better year than the average for 3rd Base, and his defensive play has improved based on the metrics. I'm definitely not Plouffie's biggest fan, but I don't see "horrible" in these numbers. He certainly wouldn't generate a Top 100 prospect in trade, but "slightly above league average" still has some value.
  19. jokin
    Mike Berardino @MikeBerardino · 28s Per #mntwins farm director Brad Steil, Alex Meyer "just felt like he couldn't get loose. Precautionary move."
  20. jokin
    Mike Berardino @MikeBerardino · 1m RHP Alex Meyer wasn't even hitting 90 mph on the Rochester stadium radar gun, according to those on-site.
  21. jokin
    Gulp RT @DanJGlickman: @MikeBerardino The trainer is out to check Alex Meyer and he's leaving game.
  22. jokin
    Yep, and if he hasn't learned proper technique to this point, there's really nothing that Rod Carew has to work with.
  23. jokin
    Thanks, Ben. This information is extremely helpful, and that's about where I figured to be at at this point on this situation, especially with your ongoing hints about issues. Sometimes a change of scenery is best for all parties. But it seems extremely presumptuous to extrapolate his line thus far with the Twins to a $2M or $3M reward for 2015, no matter the need in the OF.
  24. jokin
    This makes sense, as the Twins have the upper hand at this point. Have the Twins done anything this anticipatorily clever in the recent past?
  25. jokin
    Thanks, Ben. Now the question is, would the Twins offer close to that amount, risk going to arbitration, or non-tender?.... knowing they didn't claim Bonifacio for less than a $2M commitment in 2014. And more importantly, knowing anything about Shafer, what might be his own preferences? If he's looking for a shot at playing every day, it seems the Twins have a spot available to prove he's an everyday player until Buxton arrives.
×
×
  • Create New...