jokin

Sure, there may be "reasons" why particular moves are made, but more often than not, we still say "huh" when the strategy fails, but even moreso, when after multiple games of using up his RPs haphazardly, Gardy then complained that the bullpen has been overused, and he seemingly lacked the self-awareness to understand that the overuse was largely of his own making.

In another post I acknowledged that the SP has a significant component in the total equation. But factoring in the haphazard wasting of multiple RP arms either warming up or "wasting" an appearance facing one or two batters, plus the lack of defense from playing a position player short- exemplified in the +1 run differential between ERA and FIP for the SPs, these complementary areas of roster management hasn't proven to be very strategically effective.

I hope I'm on to something, but I gotta admit it's just a fact-based hunch and hope. But isn't the Twins luck bound to change back in the other direction regarding injuries to top prospects? Maybe this is the start.

Add the irrational and ill-advised bullpen management over the years- often leading to needing 13- and 14- man staffs, and I think you've pretty much made the case. What else is Nick "looking" for (listening for?) here?

And it isn't just fire-lighting or culture-building (as important as they are), FWIW, Gardy actually has the team playing more competitively this year based on a year-over-year run-differential basis; But.... in addition to the value of an attention-getting, "New Voice", a new manager can bring new in-game-strategies and philosophies, which would ideally include someone who intrepidly embraces a more sabremetric approach, to address the obvious areas of deficiency, such as the pitching woes, and he also can introduce new preparation and training regimens, as what is being done now in these areas has, based on the continued W-L woes, by and large failed on almost all fronts.

He's still only 18. If his growth plates are still open, this may only be a case of "Little League Elbow", which can be remedied with some rest and strength training.

You nailed it Kwak. The way the bullpen is handled is all on Gardy, the overuse of the bullpen is essentially as much of his own doing, as it is of the SPs lack of IPs. When it becomes obvious that his SPs are struggling, can't he change his RP throwing schedules? ie, more guys designated to throw multiple innings means less guys having multiple warm-ups in games they now won't have to throw in. And the resulting annual neurotic "need" for the 13- and 14-man pitching staffs is a continuation of the downward cascade in overall performance. You really made a great point on the short bench and the resulting lack of plus-defense-options. The MN Twins have the greatest negative difference between ERA and FIP, for SPs- a full 1.05 negative run differential, 5.09 vs 4.04, and the greatest negative difference overall, a .65 negative run differential, 4.62 vs. 3.97. And folks wonder if FA pitchers have qualms about signing here.

Well.... now the three teams that have been nearly universally disparaged by our TD community, for varied combinations of gross mismanagement and flagrant insensitivity towards their fanbase, have lapped the Twins on the field. Like the Twins.... the Cubs, Astros and Marlins had three straight seasons from 2011-13 with 90+ losses, and all three are more clearly back on track than the Twins and have demonstrated marked W-L improvement in 2014, the Twins, not so much. I'm hoping that "stay the course" and "help is on the way" won't be the catch-phrases for the 2015 Twins, as they desperately try to avoid a "Five-Peat", but I'm not holding my breath

Add Swarzak to the bad list. Career high BB%, lowest K rates since 2011, batting line slash against with RISP: .384/.420/.575/1.035. That is BAD.

Perkins will be 32 in March. Swarzak turns 29 tomorrow, and it increasingly looks like 2013 was his career year.

I think there's a decent chance that Michael moves on up to Rochester to play 2nd, and possibly some SS if Florimon leaves the organization. Regarding Kepler.....It was really a tale of two seasons for Max at Ft Myers. Perhaps he was (finally) free of injuries, perhaps he altered his approach at the plate, or perhaps he's finally maturing, or maybe all three, as the contrast in these numbers is stark: April 1-July 11: K% 22.5% OPS .622 ISO .099 wRC+ 80 July 13-Sep 8: K% 11.0% OPS .835 ISO .142 wRC+ 140 Max is on the (roster) clock, I'd really like to think that July 13 was the jump-off point to the acceleration phase in his career trajectory. I hope that both he and the club have the sense of urgency to build on these last 2 months and produce a very solid offseason, starting with the AFL, and looking to not be left behind the rest of the Miracle championship crew going into 2015.

It was really a tale of two seasons for Kepler at Ft Myers. Perhaps he was (finally) free of injuries, perhaps he altered his approach at the plate, or perhaps he's finally maturing, or maybe all three, as the contrast in these numbers is stark: April 1-July 11: K% 22.5% OPS .622 ISO .099 wRC+ 80 July 13-Sep 8: K% 11.0% OPS .835 ISO .142 wRC+ 140 Max is on the (roster) clock, I'd really like to think that July 13 was the jump off point to the acceleration phase in his career trajectory. I hope that both he and the club have the sense of urgency to build on these last 2 months and produce a very solid offseason, starting with the AFL, and looking to not be left behind the rest of the Miracle championship crew going into 2015.

His FB velo has collapsed in the months of August and September- something is definitely wrong with Masterson. Meanwhile, a guy with a huge velo upswing and underlying numbers much better than his record indicates is Brandon McCarthy.

And with solid performances from three guys going to the AFL- 1) Max Kepler plays 1B/OF in place of Gonzalez and, 2) Jake Reed joins the six you listed in the relief corps- that is a potentially unreal 7-man relief crew. 3) And I would assume Jason Adam would be the 5th starter?

I've said it before, but it bears repeating.... the core of this Miracle group is due for promotion to AA in 2015, and joining them, at least to start out the season, will likely be Sano, Buxton and Polanco. This promises to be a ridiculously good lineup for AA, with a possible scenario of legit major-league-starter prospects at every position in the field, and a relief pitcher crew that very well may be the best in all of the minor leagues at any level (and you might even see Reed added to this group- he seems way advanced for A-level ball!). And AA is the level where players are literally a phone call away from moving to the Twins, finally! Congratulations, guys.

I originally thought this was an obvious truth, but after looking at the numbers, I think that 75% number is a little high. First the good news, one area that has clearly improved, in some cases dramatically, in all of the various measures- (BsR, Spd, UBR, wSB)- is baserunning, and I believe that is Molitor's domain. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=8,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Presumably, some of the obvious running gaffes we have witnessed are countered by the overall improved team numbers, which indicate that a smarter, and yet more aggressive stance has been taken by the club and been a part of the greater run production in 2014 vs. 2013 (+0.64 runs/game). The means that the offense has produced 4.43 Runs/Game versus 3.79 Runs/Game in 2013 ,with a slight increase in wOBA, from .307 to .317, so a bit of good news there, as well. Back to pitching- and it's slightly counter-intuitive to relate to these numbers based on what we've witnessed this year- but when you compare team stats for SPs and All Pitchers in ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, K%, K/9, BB%, BB/9, HR/9, IP/Start, there are small, to slightly better than small, improvements in every single category but one. And that one is Team ERA, which is 4.62 this year, versus 4.55 in 2013. And yet, the team has given up 4.49 runs per 9 innings, versus only 3.81 runs per 9 innings in 2013. The RPs, on the other hand, have shown small, but not insignificant drops in performance in all of the pertaining categories, with the exception of a slight improvement in HR/9. So, a relative decrease in RP performance, a drop in the LOB% from 70.2% in 2013 to 68.7% in 2014, along with some pretty shaky defense at times (IFs & DHs in the OF, which is largely on Gardy) seems to account for the 0.69 Runs/9 innings increase. So.... Anderson was unable to coax significant improvement from the returning staff of starters and relievers as a whole, while Hughes makes the SP numbers look better than they actually were. If he gets credit for turning Hughes around and making Gibson at least serviceable, he must take the blame for the bad performance and performance reversals from most of the rest of the staff. But maybe not the whole 75% enchilada blame......as meanwhile..... the shaky defense gets a portion of the blame as well, DRS in 2014 is -67... versus DRS of -10 in 2013.... rSB of -7 in 2014 versus rSB of +3 in 2013. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=8,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

This definitely seems more plausible, and sensical, than a March, 2015 Santana demotion..

Assuming Mauer plays almost all of the games remaining in 2014, he will have averaged 115 games per season over the last four years. How many more games should we ask Mauer to "easily sit" @ this number which tells us alot: $23M/yr? I would argue that there is another solution, in that, Arcia could DH more, Mauer could play more OF, Vargas could play more 1B and Pinto could catch more.

There is no way that Santana starts out in AAA to start the 2015 season. The only question is how much time he spends at SS and CF with the Twins.

This "solution" is also incredibly oversimplified. Gardenhire, is the Captain of the ship, which means he is responsible for guiding them from port to port, through his chosen subordinate officers (the only subordinate apparently thrust upon him is Paul Molitor). The job of his subordinates is to execute his vision for "success" (I'd settle for ANY incremental signs of team "improvement"***), and have his players demonstrate measurable increases in performance, relative to their potential capabilities ( while more and more, it seems the only major thing asked of the players is to "get after it" and "like" playing for the Captain ). There is very, very little to show over the last 4 years, of an overarching "Twins' Way" strategy that has been employed that will ultimately lead the team up and out of this bottom-dwelling muddy morass. Gardy chose Anderson originally way back when, and even though the pitching has clearly failed over and over in the last four seasons, he stubbornly won't make a change, even if you are "ready for a change there," Gardy may not have all of the responsibility for four consecutive 95+ loss seasons, but my goodness!, it's equally inaccurate to completely exonerate him from his captaining of 4 consecutive shipwrecks. (Only Connie Mack and TK have done this bad and survived, and Mack couldn't fire himself). *** Year over year won-loss improvement through September 7: Miami + 16 Astros +16 Giants +14 Mwkee + 12 Cubs + 6 Wht Sox + 4 Twins ZERO

Great article, minor nitpick here-> Shafer just turned 28 this last week. Hicks turns 25 on October 2. Whatever the case, given how shorthanded in CF the Twins left themselves going into April last year, a 3-pronged CF approach seems likely to continue for the time being. Santana splits time in CF and SS, it also seems likely that Schafer has played well enough to earn a 25-man spot and split time in CF, and part time in the corners, starting out initially in April, 2015. And given Hicks' reticence about playing winter ball, he hasn't exactly ingratiated himself with management, even with a better approach at the plate in September. He has an option left, I can easily see him starting out next season in Rochester. The other possibility that few have seriously considered beyond a FA acquisition for a corner spot? Either Mauer or Plouffe-> Vargas getting more 1st base reps, Arcia getting more DH reps.

I think this says a lot more about Hick's future with the team- a former 1st round pick, and born CF, is clearly behind a born SS, for CF time- This leaves Hicks now scrambling for reps at any OF position, and likely only in the lineup tonight because Shafer damaged his rib cage yesterday. I see "back-up 4th OF", behind Shafer, in his future, unless he can definitively change some organizational minds to the contrary in the next 3+ weeks.

Concussion symptoms.

You call it a mountain out of nothing..... And I call it maximizing the 162 game schedule to continually try to accomplish something at improving the team for the long run, or why go through the pretense of calling anyone up in September?.... getting Polanco 27 days worth of major league atmosphere and a series of late-inning valuable reps at at least 3 different positions for someone whom the Twins regard as a prized prospect- over a minor league journeyman- seems pretty elementary to me. And don't get me wrong, Bernier earned his call-up, but with a reward paid off primarily by a comfortable seat in the dugout. Polanco, by stark contrast, has shown the aptitude to be a part of the long-term solution- and can directly benefit from continuing his Twins matriculation at the highest level available, and there's little doubt, he possibly could contribute as early as some time next season (and perhaps not at SS). Santana and Vargas now look like they can be part of the solution, why not give Polanco every opportunity to continue his progression and join them as soon as possible?

27 days at most, that definitely shouldn't be the make or break decision on a team en route to another 90+ loss season. I'm not calling for Polanco's immediate promotion- just a continued developmental exercise, as he has clearly shown in his call-ups that he has the moxy to quickly adapt to the highest level, and the willingness to continue the learning process. The SSs on this team have proven to be highly interchangeable anyways, and as in the case of Santana, it might be necessary, maybe likely, to call on one or more of them to play another position. That brings up a potential scenario where Polanco possibly duplicates in 2015 what Santana did this year, and is called up around the ASG to fill in at another position should Santana claim the SS spot, prove useful as a replacement at 3rd Base should Plouffe sustain injury or become trade bait, and always, of course, the possibility of a continued train wreck with the other CF contenders/pretenders. As we've seen the last three nights, there's no reason that Polanco couldn't have been inserted into late game situations, as others have, and benefited from the experience.