jokin

I give up. Wimmers, Boyd or Harrison?

Two case-study, real-time examples about "balls that should be outs"- and who benefits, who suffers- Volquez ERA 3.04 xFIP 4.20 +1.16 differential Nolasco ERA 5.47 xFIP 3.99 -1.48 differential

No doubt the Twins have a flyball staff, but that 5th highest FB% is quite a bit skewed, as it includes the Relievers. The SPs FB% ranks 12th highest, kind of in the middle. But it just doesn't seem a very good combination overall though in terms of hopes for achieving any kind of significant increase in run-prevention,- seems more like the "Perfect Storm"- as in... to have the absolute last-place K-rates for both Relievers and Starters, and coupled that with bad-to-middling FB rates, topped by a bad OF defense. I don't think that's the ideal strategy for pitch to contact.

...and one whom the Twins had absolutely no pressing reason to give away for nothing last March... rather than just a cheap low-risk pick-up... seems more like an absolute steal for the Pirates, as was Volquez (Twins got Pelfrey for $0.5M more!), and as was Liriano the previous year. Vanimal turned just 27 years old, yesterday, and apparently still won't yet be eligible for arbitration. As much as TR has been celebrated for finding bargains in the rubble, the Pirates seem to have learned enough at sabre-researching to become expert at hanging out in the low-rent district and coming up roses- when they say a target acquisition is "better than his numbers indicate", they've got a track record to back up their claim.

There has been a lot of recent debate on Twins Daily about defense, and how it might help out the Twins SPs in limiting run production. While the past debates have centered on the Twins SPs annual finish at the bottom in K-rates and somehow ponying up for an Ace... now fingers have justifiably been pointed at the well-documented substandard play in the OF..... perhaps there's also a case to made for spending more wisely on items such as: a new coaching philosophy- but still maintaining the overall P2C, some SPs in need of a change in scenery and approach,.... and upgrading the IF defensively, as well? Tony Blengino published an article in Fangraphs that might show the way in how this might be accomplished, and in the Twins' case, it might be some painful reading, but well worth it. The prime focus of the article notes that the secret to success for the Pirate pitching staff is GB%- 5 of their 6 starters have a rate in the 90th percentile or better (Worley 94%, Liriano 91%). Moreover, they have MLB League-Highest SP GB% the last two seasons (52.8% and 50.9%), and even more significantly, the 2013 and 2014 results are the highest, two Standard Deviations above League Average, GB%, since 2002. Equally important, the number of weakly-hit ground balls being induced by every one of their top 6 starters is above league average. The author points out the strong correlation to success that these numbers can help produce- between the top 9 teams in highest, two deviation rate from average, for GB% since 2002- as a group, these 9 teams averaged over 90 wins. Blengino summarizes: But Blengino wasn't done with his "schooling" lesson for the MN Twins. How the Pirates coaching staff and management put this group together, and then went out and accomplished these numbers is quite revealing. For starters, the Pirates only home-grown product, Gerrit Cole, had contact management issues dating back to college that needed fixing- he's now at the highest GB% of his career at any level- mission accomplished. And not to be discounted, the Bucs acquired BOTH Charlie Morton and Jeff Locke for....to repeat, in the same trade.... wait for it... Nate McClouth. Edinson Volquez was signed as a FA for $5M in the offseason, after what on the surface looks like a terrible season in 2013, outright released by the Pads, and played out the string with Dodgers (-2.4 bWAR). What did the Pirates see in Volquez (2014 bWAR of 2.4, 3.04 ERA)? Well, it turns out in 2013 he obtained the lowest average grounder velocity in all of baseball. Are you kidding me? I guess somebody was really doing their homework! Seems like Pirates management and their overarching ground-ball-inducing priorities, thought Volquez just might be a fit- he's gone from -2.4 WAR to + 2.4 WAR. (I'm wondering who, if anybody, bid against them for Volquez in the offseason?) We know all too well the turnaround that Francisco Liriano has enjoyed, the Bucs increased his slider and change-up percentages along with some other tinkering in his mechanics, and now his K/9, K%, GB% and GB/FB rates are higher than for any year other than 2006. And just as important, so are his LOB% results the last two seasons; while usually a number attributed to luck, but in this case, it can at least somewhat significantly be attributed to the Pirates stellar infield defense. If I were Liriano (3.0 bWAR in 2013, 1.8 bWAR in 2014) and his agent, I couldn't stop thanking the Pirates enough for turning his career completely around and giving him the upcoming chance he has been given to go on the market this offseason, and look to make an AAV 7-figure, multi-year contract. Unfortunately, the author saved the best/worst, namely the Vanimal, for last. ***Warning, the statistical breakdown, and the stunning "Worley-Dervish" turnaround in his career, thought dead and buried only last spring, is a disturbing lesson for Twins fans***: Further fuel to the fire.... Worley already has spoken out on a simple correction the Pirates made in his delivery that the Twins didn't catch... and to reiterate, look at the amazing improvement in GB%, from previous-best, 53rd percentile to 94th percentile! Oh, the author mentioned that the top 6 starters cost Pittsburgh only an astonishingly low $16.5M.... but it's worth mentioning that they also overcame the adversity of a bad contract, the Pirates accomplished these results and still had to eat a $13M contract with Wandy Rodriguez (-1.0 bWAR in 27 IP). So..... the Twins, at just under $32M for their top 7 SPs, spent slightly more than the Pirates did for their first 7 SPs- at $29.5M. But the Pirates have a team SP ERA of 3.62- while the Twins SP ERA is 5.08, with the two Twins castoffs comfortably beating the Pirates overall ERA average, Liriano- 3.32 ERA... Worley 2.93 ERA. I sure hope that Terry Ryan and staff are taking notes by now, this article presents a trove of lessons on how to have a very successful SP corps without breaking the bank. I've advocated for taking a closer look at bounce-back guys in trade, with unwanted big contracts, like Trevor Cahill. Based on this article, now I'd have to think for every Cahill, there must be at least 2 or 3 Vasquez's, Lirianos or Worleys floating around out there simply in need of a change in scenery and adjustment in approach and pitch selection... and a Twins scout doing his homework and finding potential value in the type of guys they're currently simply getting rid of, as well as a pitching coaching staff finding the right formula to make this a "group staff project" and instilling a new-found emphasis at inducing more GBs. The Twins currently rank 21st in SP GB% (42.7%). And of course, improving the Infield defense a little bit, too.

Beat me to that line... will this thread even reach to 3 pages?

Doesn't the Pinto thing have Gardy's fingerprints all over it (there is a "history" with Latin catchers)? All the way up the organization, Pinto was billed as a hard worker, always eager to improve, and now he's apparently virtually unplayable, and just to make sure he's set up to fail, he was made Deduno's personal caddy. How much of this is really on Steinbach?

I haven't done extensive research, but how many Phil Hughes-types, circa 2013, are out there on bad contracts that might be available at steep discounts? I've mentioned Trevor Cahill as one example, who certainly would command far less than a top prospect in trade for the D-Backs to get out from under his big contract next season. Jon Niese has less upside and a smaller contract, but also a more predictable level of middling-to-possibly-very good performance potential. These are just two of many SPs placed on conditional waivers in August, presumably their current clubs are looking for indications of interest to possibly part ways and presumably are amenable and motivated enough to trading for less than a Buxton or Sano. (The Tigers acquired David Price for 1 and 1/3 years, and they only had to give up Austin Jackson, who has the exact same bWAR in the last 3 years as Denard Span, and Drew Smyly).

It seems like getting assigned to the AFL is a big deal., and even with the boatload of drafted pitching prospects, Jason Adam somewhat quietly got the nod. Any idea on where the Twins think Jason Adam ends up to start out in 2015? And in what role? He's Rule 5 eligible, so the decision to protect him presumably is in the offing

He pulled himself from the starting lineup Saturday night, WELL AFTER what would have been game time if not for the rain delay. But that was an action that he just hasn't earned the right to do, and then he compounded the error by not showing up for a trainer evaluation on time Sunday morning. It seems to me that any doghouse "treatment" Hicks has gotten from management on this issue was well-deserved (and he responded well in the two subsequent games, so give Gardy credit for getting his message across- perhaps he's opened up a line of communication to Hicks after all).

You won't believe this, but Suzuki is back behind the plate today for Hughes. Pinto at DH.

And it's hard to ignore the glaringly obvious fact the "processes" involved in producing quality returns on 2/5ths of their playoff-team SP rotation from guys who were run out of town here from the worst SP staff in baseball.

Garver- 1/15/91 soon turns 24 Navaretto- 12/29/94 soon turns 20 No doubt that Navaretto will have to do better than just a full-time, short-season spot at "Betsy" next year for him to continue being a Twins Top 40 prospect, but at this point, they are almost exactly 4 years difference in age and only 1 level developmental difference within the organization.

The thread I continue to hang on is that the Twins last offseason really made a significant effort to sign another front-end starter, well AFTER they had already done their early offseason shopping for Nolasco, Hughes and Pelfrey. If Pohlad stays true to his statement last year about not going out beyond a 4-year deal and still hope to get the phone ringing at the season ticket renewal desk, he's going to have to bite the bullet and sign a big name guy early when the FA window opens, and then pay out more in AAV. And maybe look to trade for a buy-low candidate like Trevor Cahill, while they dump Nolasco's contract back to the NL.

Except at the end of last season: If he felt that way last September 13th, and then Pohlad opened the purse strings exactly into the 2, 3 and 4 year contracts as he himself desrcribed above, I've got to think he's feeling more "embarrassment in walking the concourse", and worse, feeling more panic when he walks through his own marketing department.

So does the 4 year age difference.

Huh? Since these media guys are with the team on a day-by-day basis from the beginning of March to the end of September, in the ballpark and locker rooms in the pregame and postgame, often travel together, and are in the same hotels between games, this statement is almost certainly not true. They can't help but "hear things" that no one else has access to. And their "babbling" is almost certainly a byproduct of what they pick up, some of which information that is shared to them by management is purposefully intended for mass distribution and consumption by their audience

I don't think there was much mis-hearing from the "Midnight" lyrics: "You won't need no camel … when I take you for a ride"; "Cactus is our friend. He'll point out the way."

I think the Gary Chamber of Conference disagrees: http://www.commercialin-sites.com/images/maps/Gary-Chicago%20Airport.jpg

Based on last night's and tonight's results, thus far, I think Hicks is getting the message.

This is a really good post, especially the bolded part. I'm definitely not a Gardy supporter, but the the thin ice that Hicks has already skated out on, really didn't allow him any margin for disregard, and posters in support of him fail to acknowledge that his irresponsibility didn't go down well with his teammates, not just management. I fully concur, and have for some time, time to go in a new direction.

There's no official policy, but I think it's clear that there is an expectation of personal responsibility and understanding that a day to day injury requires a daily session with trainers and/or the team doctor- a guy who's been around for 2 years really has no excuse. And how is a trainer supposed to do their job and check on Hicks' alleged back injury, assess it, treat it and pronounce him fit, or not fit, to play that day, if he's not there? To reiterate: It's really hard to put much of this on management.

Apparently not.

Glad you asked. The Twins could have drafted Kyle Lobstein in the 2012 Rule 5 draft (or traded for him like Detroit did the same day of the draft from the Mets, the Twins chose yet another reliever in Ryan Pressly, instead, but they could have also contacted someone to draft Lobstein for them in a pre-arranged trade, as the Tigers did***). The Twins had not one, but two chances (in February and again in March of 2013) to claim Todd Redmond, for free. Both of these two aren't super-talented, but would have looked pretty good as candidates for 5th/Spot Starter status (there were some of us that said so at the time of their availability, I never understand why the Twins don't look to bolster their depth options with more of these no-risk moves. Clearly, what they're doing now isn't working, throwing Swarzak out there is an embarrassment). *** The Tigers have pretty good prospect pitching depth, three guys who they might not be able to protect in the Rule 5 are young, hard-throwing RPs, Jose Valdes, Melvin Mercedes and Angel Nesbitt.

This was actually a two-day deal. Gardy expressed his frustration about Hicks pulling himself from the starting lineup during the rain delay on Saturday, which was certainly strange timing for coming up with "back issues" at that point in time. It was only natural for the press to follow up and inquire why he wasn't in the lineup on Sunday, especially after the PP writer in question observed Hicks' absence on Sunday morning at 10:30, and his teammates' reaction to that absence. I think it's fair to say we don't know for sure what sort of "manipulations" are taking place, but I'm fairly certain that the manager and the club have tried different ways, both publicly and privately, to motivate Hicks out of his laid back ways, and help him figure out how to "get it". And it's not too hard to read between the lines about management's level of frustration with Hicks. And, not that he's necessarily turning any corners mind you, but for FWIW, Hicks acquitted himself pretty well tonight against Arizona- reached three times and made a pretty gutsy catch crashing into the wall in the 9th inning with his "back issues".