jokin

+1 Brevity. Soul.... Wit.

Any chance Billy Beane is looking for a new employer if they DO lose tomorrow? There might be an opening...

I think it works well on an individual basis, we have one of the best examples on the Twins of teams scouting both hot zones and overwhelming tendencies, regardless of a pitcher's control. The shift on Joe Mauer is now near-ubiquitous around the league. Night-after-night, DicknBert marvel when Mauer is up to bat.... at how close the LF is to the LF foul line.... and how far away the RF is to the RF foul line. I'd like to see the study for verification, but the spray charts I've seen indicate that Mauer;s production suffered, largely due to the shift this year.

I don't know why you wouldn't use it. Baseball reference doesn't have a problem using it, and it sure seems the best regarded catchers dominate the top names on the list of top active catchers CS%: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/caught_stealing_perc_active.shtml Yadier Molina is # 1 among actives. Mauer is #7. Among the 40 catchers listed, Suzuki ranks #33.

I'm not following your logic, here. If a team shifts, it's with the expectation that the batted ball has a high probability of ending up in the teeth of the shift. I would think the pitcher's game plan is to emphasize at delivering the location and type of pitch that most likely results in that outcome for that particular batter based on spray chart/hit f/x.

I don't see how he can possibly be gone... Jim Pohlad hasn't even given his annual, "It's embarrassing" speech, yet.

Great post. I see you formatted it to be able to put a check mark on each as they start happening, as early as today.

Caleb Joseph had a Caught Stealing rate of 40.4% this year. Only Molina has a higher mark than that for any full-time Catcher. FWIW- ESPN has Suzuki at 24.7% this year, with a career CS rate of 26%. The Twins at the Catcher position, as a team, #30 out of 30 teams in rSB, which is defined by The Fielding Bible as thus: So.... blame for all to share, but Suzuki is right around his career average. And an illustration of yet another mess that needs fixing if the goal in 2015 is increased run prevention.

Orioles Pitching slash: .308/.382/.690 BA: .244 (ranked 5th lowest) Twins Pitching slash: .330/.428/.758 BA: .280 (ranked Worst) Orioles CS%: 28% (ranked 5th) Twins CS%: 18% (ranked Worst) Orioles BABIP: .280 (ranked 3rd lowest) Twins BABIP: .315 (ranked Worst) Orioles DIP%: 115% (ranked 1st) Twins DIP%: 87% (ranked Worst) Regarding pure IF team defensive metrics, based on UZR and DRS, the Orioles graded out vastly superior at 1st, 2nd and SS over the Twins, with the main players contributing to the strong numbers primarily being Pierce (about 1/3 the innings @ 1st), Schoop and Hardy. 3rd Base was basically a wash, as Machado missed all of April and basically the last two months of 2014, as well. Matt Wieters has been out since early May, but no matter, Caleb Joseph easily outgraded Suzuki defensively at Catcher. I would think the "reasonably competent" grading for the Twins IF might be in the ballpark, but nowhere near "above average", let alone "near elite", as the Orioles appear to be (and the O's are probably in the "elite" camp with a healthy Manny Machado) . Looks like plenty of blame to go around here for both the Twins IF defense, as well as the Pitchers/Catchers.

Yep. Unless somebody calls up with a crazy-intriguing bad contract swap, Nolasco isn't going anywhere

Guerra and Salcedo are the 6-year FAs. I gotta think with the really nice bounce-back year that Salcedo had, he gets a spot, and the Twins have a lot invested in Guerra. I would say that with some major league attrition via non-tender, that number could justifiably be higher than 5-7, and might be as many as 8. That would make 6 of the 8 potential spots accounted for, and they would appear to still be short a lefty or two, especially if T-Bar is bye-bye- which opens the way for Gilmartin, Wheeler and an outside shot for O'Rourke, maybe?

Good catch on Wheeler. Team option on Burton @ $3.6 M.. Can't believe the Twins would do anything but buy it out, but wouldn't put it past them to then try to re-sign along with Duensing and Swarzak. We'll have to agree to disagree on Fryer, if Butera could survive for years on end, Fryer wil, as well, he isn't even eligible for arb until 2017 (same with Pino, if healthy, could potentially fill Swarzak role at a big discount), No call-up for K Johnson seems ominous. Seems likely that Pelfrey will be given every chance to come back. .

I'm surprised that Thielbar and Hicks aren't on the Gleeman 19 list bubble, as well. Terry Ryan didn't exactly give Hicks a ringing endorsement on the Twins broadcast on Friday night.... I would think one of the first orders of business next month is, they shop Hicks around for indications of interest. And hey, compared to Howard Sinker's estimate that the "dead weight" on this roster was "at least two dozen players" one year ago at this time, at least it's an incremental move- in terms of more rosterized talent, less rosterized dead weight- in the generally right direction. And the Twins have already shed themselves of their opening day starting SS. By contrast, the Twins first offseason move in October, 2013, was outrighting a grand total all of four players, so I would think they aren't going to go all out on the chopping block. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/8432-twins-outright-four-players/ Of the Gleeman Nineteen, although it's really time to cut bait and move on from virtually the entire list, plus, perhaps, the two players named above, I could see the Twins strongly considering retaining T-Bar and Hicksie, plus these 11: Achter Burton Duensing Fryer Hermann Oliveros Pelfrey * Pino * Pressly Swarzak Schafer * Conceivably, they might consider extending the 60-day DL into 2015 on both Pelfrey and Pino to give a couple of the others an extended tryout or showcase opportunity. It's important to note that, by my count, there is a building backlog of at least 15 guys in the minors of whom a decision on whether or not to add to the 40-man will need to take place- (the 4 roster additions I would think are "locks" are in bold, plus you'd have to think of the 10 pitchers on this list, and are underlined, at least 3-4 will likely be added- for a total around 8?.... threatening some of the guys on the Gleeman Nineteen list)- including: Adam Gilmartin Goodrum Guerra C Johnson T Jones Lee Mejia Meyer Michael Rosario Sano Salcedo Shibuya Tomshaw So, that looks like perhaps maybe a minimum of 8 minor league additions, and 8 deletions, for sure- from the Gleeman 19- possibly these eight?: Bernier Colabello Darnell Johnson Nunez Parmelee Pryor Thompson And somewhat sadly, the 11 + 2 from the first list above looks for the most part, to be safe, for now.

Thanks, Hammer. This really puts the science of the shift into better perspective. It's becoming apparent that the Pirates have put a great deal of thought and man-hours into their overall GB-heavy-inducement strategy, relative to run prevention vis-a-vis payroll dollars committed to pitchers and infielders, as well as to game-planning of opponent hit f/x. And it seems replicable with the Twins existing personnel, it seems that the Pirates IF, defensively, are only better than the Twins at SS.

Terry's mindset and indication of his priorities surrounding his job, was revealed when he inexplicably reflected in an interview on his "proudest moment in a trade" as the Twins GM, which came the year after the 1994 commencement of the dismantlement. That move being, of course, Scott Erickson for Scott Klingenbeck and Kimera Bartee.

Parker, you just blasted a lot of theories on this thread right out of the water in these last two posts. Judging by these numbers, the Twins have actually demonstrated one of the higher competency rates in terms of hits-saved/shift in the whole league. Does the bulk of the credit for this then redound to Paul Molitor? I would conclude that Worley's IFH%, which is well above league average, accounts for much of his higher GB BA- PItt infielders showing more range and keeping more balls in the holes and foul lines that went for hits, in the infield, or more or less, "dumb luck", as the Inside Edge author surmises, due to balls oddly hit while in the shift ? And how much did Worley benefit from double plays on his behalf?

Fuld was never part of the problem while he was here. He gave a net performance level well above his 4th OFer skill level all the time he was here.

FWIW: Twins SP BABIP #1 (.326) ALL P #1 (.316) Pirates SP BABIP # 23 (.288) ALL P # 21 (.289)

Vance Worley does it again tonight, taking another game into the 7th inning against Cincinnati, giving up one run while scattering 9 hits. striking out 4, walking none. He lowered his ERA to 2.85 and his FIP to 3.44. He continued his ground ball ways, with a GB% tonight of exactly 50%. In 17 starts, he now has 11 Quality Starts, in 8 of which he has given up 0 or 1 runs. He improved on his career-high BB/9 number as it's now down to 1.79, which is ~1 BB/9 better than his career mark, as well as his mark with the Twins last year. His BB% is now 4.8%, which would be good enough for the #14 spot for all starters, putting him with the likes of the top control pitchers in baseball, such as Shields, Price, Chen. Worley would be #1 or #2 in virtually every pitching category among starters in Minnesota. Compared to all Twins starters, only Phil Hughes beats out some of Worley's numbers in (*** indicates Worley is #1): ERA+ *** K/9 BB/9 K/BB K% BB% BA *** WHIP ERA *** FIP xFIP SIERA GB% (Worley #2 to Gibson) His GB%, ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, BB/9, BB%, K/BB, WHIP are all at career highs. All of these measures of success and a postseason playoff berth, too? Oh yeah, Vance loves and is excited about being a Pirate allright.

Yep... petty... and in my case at least, bitter. (I scream a little inside, every time I hear about the "prudent" choice of a "safe college arm"...)

The other point was that the Pirates are achieving similar GB numbers with all 6 of their starters, and have done so over two seasons, not one, which presumably removes some of the randomness of the outcomes.

Great points. The IF defense, as the article alludes to without statistical support to back it up, I think, is a huge difference-maker for Worley, as it is for Volquez. The Buc DRS and OOZ ratings are near the top in all of baseball. But the one number cited that stood out was the switch the Pirates made, to using the previously rarely-used 2-seam FB as his new main pitch, and throwing it at a +40% rate... and there's definitely success he's had with the pitch in achieving the bulk of his GB outs, as well as the point they made that he's achieving his highest level ever of weakly hit balls. That's an indication that there is no question that the Pirate coaching staff thought this thing out and devloped a specific plan for success for Worley (as they did for Liriano previously). And no question that Martin is right there in the discussion about #1 defensive catcher, and not just for pitch-framing abilities. My assumption from the article (and I could be wrong), was that Russell Martin was counted as part of the superior Pirate Infield defense. The Pirate C and SS position players (Mercier and Barmes), by the numbers and the eye test, are much, much better than what the Twins can currently put out there.

OK. Thanks Stringer. I wasn't sure if his 2 years service time going in this year, plus June 15-September 28 passes the cutoff for Super 2 or not. Still, they now have revived the value of a still-young arm and have 4 more years of control of a once-deemed-worthless asset only 6 months ago.

Yeah, that comment about what attracted the Pirates to Volquez absolutely jumped off the page for me.