jokin

Meyer?

So much for the argument the Twins have made for years that they "have to pay the market rate", even for #5-level, but experienced, SPs. As in San Diego Pittsburgh, MN and LA, Correia pitched himself out of a starting job, with similar results along his entire track record. I guess the League has finally wised up to what was seemingly pretty obvious for most of this decade.

This is for anyone who has seen him throw this spring..... Is Salcedo going to be that emergent and entirely unexpected sleeper in the pen at some point in 2015?

The return rule is actually only 10 days, and doesn't crush anything when you have multiple options to play with, and in addition, the rule is null and void when someone goes on the DL. There are 22 pitchers on the 40-man, as long as guys have options remaining, it's not very difficult to stash multiple 5th starters as well as multiple 12th and 13th and 14th arms in the minors.

This. I've advocated this for years and am waiting for it's competitive obviousness to match up with its economic obviousness (ie, No more $5M+ contracts to deadweight 5th starter refugees from the NL). It seems the Twins are now really close to having more than enough quality depth, along with a huge amount of pitchers with remaining options to finally make this scenario work. (And it makes your offense and defense better with more situational options available- a guy like Hermann gets more Major League chances to develop and show what he's got).

For some reason, this lineup with these 5 guys, healthy and ready, reminds me of the giddy anticipation in the old Dark Star commercial (@ 0:45 second mark): "Baseball... So close you can taste it!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=HWb7OHloc58#t=45

Not necessarily for the SS position, but still useful as a measurement of raw athleticism.

Mouth watering! You mentioned Addison Russell, the comparable tool set tells me that the Twins could potentially have the option to make a trade for an Ace. (I know, I know, definitely not in Ryan's nature to consider this option, and wildly premature at this point, but at least something that might be possible down the road) In 2014, Crawford was playing High A ball at age 19, Mondesi was playing High A ball at age 18. Considering that they're playing with guys 4-5 years older, their stats are respectable, especially Crawford.

Thanks. That puts this in a better perspective. FWIW, the top 25 All-Time Perfect Game times in the 60 range from 6.11-6.32. Justin Upton is ranked 10th, @ 6.23. Pirate prospect, top 100 prospect rankings, Austin Meadows is ranked 22nd, @ 6.31. Upton hit his time at age 17, Meadows at age 18.

Thanks, NY, that makes some sense. I'm just thinking if you're going to go against all previous tradition by putting out that kind of outlay for a 16 year old, you're supposedly paying for off-the-chart raw athleticism- IOW, you're looking for something in that upper echelon speed tool, at least somewhere just below Buxton/Hamilton (presumably "65-70"-type speed at SS/CF?). If the projection is only a "55" down the road, that would be a red flag, while if there's plenty of room to eventually knock that 60 yd. dash number down to below 6.6 that's something else. (I looked up Mondesi, it was reported he ran a 6.6 60... but at Age 15 ) http://dplbaseball.com/down-on-the-farm/dpl-alumni-adalberto-mondesi-named-kcs-7-prospect/

Below are the Top 12 times for the 60-yard dash for sophomores in Perfect Game events, as of November 2013. The Class of 2016 is the equivalent for Javier. The 7.01 time by Javier seems a bit concerning, but the supposed time of 6.76 would have placed him in 5th place overall for all American and Puerto Ricans who participated in Perfect Game. The average 60 time for all sophomores was 7.56. My first question is- How is the (theoretically) 5th best as a 16 year old graded out as only a "55" for speed? My second question is, since he mentioned him, does anyone know what is Raul Mondesi. rated for speed at his current age of 18? (Mondesis is currently rated #29 by BP amd #38 by MLB.com). Top Performers - 60-Yard Dash - Class of 2016 RK Time Name Event School City State 1 6.62 Vincent Ramos Caribbean Underclass Showcase Colegio Bautista Toa Baja, Levittown PR 2 6.64 Nicholas Rowland Mid Atlantic Underclass Showcase Chestnut Hill Academy Blue Bell PA 3 6.67 Ryan Mejia Sunshine East Showcase Alonso Tampa FL 4 6.72 Matthew Meisner Sunshine Northeast Showcase Salem Salem NH 5 6.78 Christian Moya California Underclass Showcase Bishop Amat Chino Hills CA 6 6.79 Cameron Locklear Atlantic Coast Underclass Showcase Jack Britt Fayetteville NC 7 6.82 Tyrik Jones Southeast Underclass Showcase The Galloway Stone Mountain GA 8 6.83 Corbin Bice Southeast Underclass Showcase Chilton Co. Clanton AL 9 6.83 Aidan Elias Ohio Valley Showcase Sayre Lexington KY 10 6.84 Kace Massner Midwest Underclass Showcase Burlington Community Burlington IA 11 6.85 Isaac Collins Midwest Underclass Showcase Maple Grove Maple Grove MN 11 6.85 Austin Bodrato Sunshine Northeast Showcase St. Joseph Regional Northvale NJ 11 6.85 Ashton King Atlantic Coast Underclass Showcase Christiansburg Christiansburg VA

Yep. I was going to say, Cody couldn't name everyone, but especially Vargas and Sano could capture this town pretty easily with a hot start. Sano's already been under the media spotlight for years, I have a feeling he's capable and will probably be ready for "showtime" ,and become a fan favorite right away. Vargas has the personality and a bit of the underdog that fans can readily identify with. All it will take is a handful of tape measure shots for the kid to gain some instant living legend props from the hometown faithful.

If the Twins were even just middle of the road in the corners, and had a not-great, but solid, stable CF, I'd agree with you completely. Unfortunately, they have a pitching staff that has the worst K-rates, high contact rates, high FB%- which is the worst mix imaginable what with two OFers who grade out at the bottom of the major league heap, and laid even more exposed and barren without a take-charge CFer to cover for them. As others have said, and I agree, the Twins OF is a bad two-fer- they fail both the metrics test and the eye test.

I hope this is how it works out, but I'm not 100%, closer to even money than 100% "no", especially if Torii has a good first half. Extending veterans without solid reasons is what the Twins do (Doumit, Pelfrey, Suzuki, Duensing*).

I hope this is the case, there is Twins precedent for moving fan favorite players to contending teams. But Ryan generally has moved such players much later rather than sooner. And Torii could easily end up platoon DHing in Minnesota. I strongly fear that if Torii gets off to a good start offensively, as Suzuki did last year, I think it could be close to 50-50 that Torii is extended vs. traded. (Obviously, the prospects will have a say in how this works out, as well).

I realize that, but the times both of these players struck out on bunt attempts is likely very minimal, thus doesn't change the numbers much and doesn't affect the overall point\- decent-to-good bunting skills should add great value over another similar player unable to lay them down effectively, With the huge upswing in Ks in the game, and drop in power, creating baserunners is the priority. The threat to get on via the bunt at a high rate should serve to neutralize the shift effect to some degree, and pump up the top priority, OBP. Obviously, a manager wouldn't want a Cabrera to ever bunt much, if ever, but it seems like a solid gold strategy for table setter types and those with non-elite power, pull tendencies and a low BB percentage.

I remember reading that Rod Carew had a bunt-for-a-hit success rate of .722 with the bases empty. Carlos Gomez's career average bunting (all situations) is .452, which obviously, yields a .904 OPS, compared to his career .733 OPS. It seems having a competent bunt tool as a looming weapon to beat the shift would significantly help someone's overall average.

Yes there was, and is, a "mob" to quell... And by mob, I'm referring to the professional media who peppered him with questions at the Hunter presser, and those who followed up with analysis of the Twins' offseason moves. And yeah, whether he cares about them or not, he has to provide answers to the guys who provide the team with daily PR. Which goes right to the point of the article produced by ESPN, this has nothing to do with appeasement, and everything to do with a glimpse into how each of the professional sports teams from the four major sports operate- and asks the question, "are they running their operation, by leaning more 20th Century or 21st Century?" The ESPN analysts have, I think correctly, identified the Twins as one of the teams behind the curve on cutting edge statistical analysis. Terry Ryan's quotes from the Hunter presser bear that out, even if ESPN didn't use it as part of their examples in labeling Ryan and the Twins "skeptics", there was nothing to "read into", just to quote him.

* And Suzuki. And Correia. And Stauffer.... (insert NL pitcher of your choice here) *** Ryan was no doubt in active-defending-his-decision mode in the wake of the Hunter signing. Don't you think if he actually had metric data to help further defend his decision, even expressed in vague terms to keep the company secrets, he would have used it to quell the mob? Ryan said the Twins "had some issues, as far as range", from the corner OFers in 2014. The unbiased measurement for range showed Hunter by far the worst RFer in the game last year- much worse than Arcia, who Ryan acknowledged was "not ideal." Ryan's biased answer was, by his own eye test, Hunter graded out average.

Given Ryan's track record, and his commitment to Torii, it doesn't seem likely that Hunter would be traded until July 31 at the earliest- a lot of Twins favorites weren't even moved until the end of August.

Wow. So are you saying that Ryan weaved that whole story about Hunter being much better than the defensive numbers indicate, the numbers that Ryan holds little respect towards? As they completely ignored the obvious warning signs about Suzuki's defense and signed him to a two-year extension, apparently for his "leadership" qualities, Hunter's 2014 red flags were completely glossed over by Ryan, who apparently was in search of even more "leadership." How eager is he really, to throw $10.5M down a hole? I'm pretty sure that Molitor will be pushing for the transition away from Hunter as the regular starting RFer (and/or Arcia) before Ryan is himself ready to pull that trigger. But it's all interconnected into the great question mark that is CF, which necessarily will have to be addressed first. Who can forget Mr Eye Test, his general dismissal of much significant importance of metrics, and his personal testimonial for Hunter, back at the time of the signing.... (kind of cringeworthy- he says "you should use both", but then offers no metric data to indicate why starting Hunter in RF is a good idea, or for that matter, why moving Arcia to LF won't be a disaster):

This scenario is easy to envision, but with Torii becoming the DH (and presumably continuing his "leadership and mentoring role" for Buxton, Rosario and possibly still Hicks as the 4th OF), and Vargas moved down to Rochester. Ryan seems to have a lot invested in Hunter sticking around in some capacity as his career ebbs. I guess it all comes down to this- at what point in the season do Molitor and Goin win the argument (with or without data) and convince Ryan that the OF defense is disastrous enough to be blown up and replaced with more defensively talented, but untested prospects?

Is first still locked up for certain? I still think my Mauer-to-the-OF possibility is in play at some point this season w/ Hunter getting "days off" in the OF but still DHing- and especially so if Torii proves that he can no longer cut it in the field.full-time. Provided that Torii can still swing the bat, it could prove interesting, as this would come down to a sabre-based-decision on the parts of Molly and executive management, (with Mauer signing off), on ultimately doing what's best for the team.

Paging Brock!

With Mauer all-but-abstaining, this is Hunter's team for now.