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jokin

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Everything posted by jokin

  1. jokin
    Walker had 4 hits today, 3 of which were on the second pitch thrown. In his defense, Walker is averaging 4.17 P/PA, which is ranked 5th in the Southern (Harrison is 4th at 4.18). And he's seeing lots of strikes- 64.2% strike rate. And not enough contact- 62.7% contact rate, which is 2nd worst in the Southern. And not surprisingly, a 17.9% Whiff rate (3rd in Sl), with a KSw rate of 25.7% (also 3rd in SL). And of course, he leads the Southern with a 36.7% K rate with only a 6.5% BB rate. Those are AA numbers that seem very hard to translate to the bigs.
  2. jokin
    For all intents and purposes, on draft day Deron Johnson made it sound like Jay would definitely be undergoing the long process of attempted conversion to a starter. And Terry is definitely not a big fan of the Finnegan Fast Track method for pit?hing prospects, so isn't it unlikely that he'll give him a shot this year in the pen? The other four you mention under Ryan's developmental gameplan are likely quite a long ways off from helping. (Pat Dean's splits are uninspiring). Given all of that track record.. It sure seems like Rogers could be the best option now- and he seems like he'll be a wasted asset sitting in AAA for the next 3 years.
  3. jokin
    That's exactly right. But I'll take a small issue on whether or not it's a big deal. The Twins clearly would have been much better off with Gilmartin's 22.1 innings over Duensing's 13 innings and T-Bar's 5 innings, maybe gotten an extra win.
  4. jokin
    As drivlikjehu noted, Rogers has a long, long way to go against RHB if he's ever going to start in the majors. Rogers vs RHB, 2015: FIP 4.51 GB 49.2% K% 11.6% K/9 4.58 K/BB 1.33 BA .306 OPS .811 In addition to that really bad K/BB rate against RHB, he's giving up 11 hits per 9 innings pitched. The gap in his splits is yawningly wide. I think with added velocity from pitching in a relief role, plus Guardado and Allen tweaking a few things, he can offer more than a pure LOOGY. And who knows, perhaps he can translate back to a possible back-end SP at some point in time. But let's be realistic, as of now,he's close to the #10 option for an SP role going into 2016.
  5. jokin
    Sano hits his 12th HR today to go with a BB and a K. He continues his hot hand and steadily increasing power- his BA for June is .300, with an OPS of .983. (Who's the next guy to suddenly go on the Twins DL that might create an instant opening on the 25-man?)
  6. jokin
    I actually found a prospect service that rated Taylor Rogers the overall #234 prospect: http://top500prospects.com/blog/2015-preseason-top-500-baseball-prospects-rankings/234-Taylor-Rogers/ Just behind Stephen Gonsalves at #136, Trevor May at #147 and Nick Burdi at #177, but ahead of Jake Reed at #265 and JR Graham at #439. Of course, without them adding much comment, I would think Rogers might track a lot lower if his role changes in the long term purely to relief. But at least they value his stuff over or near some highly regarded prospects.
  7. jokin
    And why not? The smartest minds in the game have looked at the data and employed it successfully. Maddon, now with the Cubs, and before him LaRussa. http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/28/tony-la-russa-and-the-logic-behind-the-lineup/
  8. jokin
    I also forgot to mention that the Twins elected to protect Logan Darnell and Jason Wheeler over Gilmartin, along with sticking with Thompson, T-Bar and Duensing. Wheeler hasn't been able to get many Ks from either side of the plate- K/9 5.09. Darnell has been converted to a RP, struggled mightily with his control, and he has managed to "achieve" fairly extreme reverse splits so far: Darnell v. LHB SIERA 4.40 K/9 5.87 K% 13.9% Darnell v RHB SIERA 3.01 K/9 11.68 K% 30.2% I get that baseball is a funny game sometimes, but Darnell is 1.25 years older than Gilmartin and a 5th round pick, Wheeler was an 8th round pick, both definitely not a 1st rounder like Gilmartin. I don't get the Twins assessment process in coming to the conclusions for each of their respective potentialities.
  9. jokin
    Yep, as I wrote in the other thread: "In the wake of the Gilmartin decision, I think the Twins need to think about their LHP prospect options a little more creatively." I still can't understand why you would let a former 1st round pick/LHP prospect just walk away in favor of the others the Twins chose to protect... or in the case of Duensing, re-sign.
  10. jokin
    I've never been a big fan of Rogers as a major league SP. Yesterday's performance was certainly impressive, as the S/WB team leads the IL in BA and OPS. But even with that performance, he's only gotten to the 7th inning 6 times in 13 starts. And one of the prime reasons he did well yesterday was that 7 of his 8 Ks were against LHB, and collectively, the 4 S/WB LHBs went 0 for 14 against him. He practically has had complete domination of lefties, throughout his career. Consider, Rogers v. LHB: FIP 1.71 GB% 57.9% K% 30% K/9 10.22 K/BB 9.6 BA .206 OPS .499 Think I'm padding his stats by including the lower minor league levels? Think again. Rogers vs. LHB in AAA, 2015: FIP 1.18 GB% 55.6% K% 33% K/9 10.05 K/BB 32 BA .170 OPS .367 See that 32? That's right. 32 Ks and 1 BB. Here's your replacement for Duensing. Rogers is bound to pick up at least a couple ticks on his FB in a relief role. Plus he's 6'3" and still only 24 years old. And as Mike and others have noted in the MiLB thread, his chances of getting a starting gig with the Twins any time soon are slim, and as Berrios soon enters the SP equation, growing ever slimmer.
  11. jokin
    I was typing while you were posting, so I included your post to add desk-pounding emphasis to make the point. I'll still make this a separate post because, in the wake of the Gilmartin decision, I think the Twins need to think about their LHP prospect options a little more creatively. I've never been a big fan of Rogers as a major league SP. Yesterday's performance was certainly impressive, as the S/WB team leads the IL in BA and OPS. But even with that performance, he's only gotten to the 7th inning 6 times in 13 starts. And one of the prime reasons he did well yesterday was that 7 of his 8 Ks were against LHB, and collectively, the 4 S/WB LHBs went 0 for 14 against him. He practically has had complete domination of lefties, throughout his career. Consider, Rogers v. LHB: FIP 1.71 GB% 57.9% K% 30% K/9 10.22 K/BB 9.6 BA .206 OPS .499 Think I'm padding his stats by including the lower minor league levels? Think again. Rogers vs. LHB in AAA, 2015: FIP 1.18 GB% 55.6% K% 33% K/9 10.05 K/BB 32 BA 170 OPS ..367 See that 32? That's right. 32 Ks and 1 BB. Here's your replacement for Duensing. Rogers is bound to pick up at least a couple ticks on his FB in a relief role. Plus he's 6'3" and still only 24 years old.
  12. jokin
    Yep. No need for Grassy Knoll theories, common sense management applications of broader depth charts.
  13. jokin
    And applause-worthy
  14. jokin
    And much of Twins nation begins thinking as one: "60 day DL!"
  15. jokin
    Arcia will build value by hitting in AAA like he did in both 2014 and 2015, and then continuing a power surge in the majors like he did last season. For the Twins, it's looking increasingly more likely that thus would be as a DH on the Twins, but should Rosario falter, he still might have a shot at reclaiming LF for the remainder of this season. Teams looking for a cheap LH power bat might be tempted to kick the tires if his bat shows signs of life here in the next few weeks. Heck, Delmon Young still somehow has a job playing for Buck Showalter.
  16. jokin
    Totally agree. It would be foolish to make any kind of "all-in" move. But that has never been TR's style. But think about this. This logjam is going to grow ever more serious both this offseason and next. Even minor decisions already made this season could end up having enough impact to make a difference in the final W-L record. For example, LHRP Sean Gilmartin is currently throwing for the Mets with a 2.01 ERA and a 9.72 K/9 against lefties so far. The Twins decided to go with Duensing, Thompson, T-Bar and Ryan O'Rourke as their primary LHRP depth options. This seemed like a strange move at the time, and still seems to be, what with giving up 6 years of potential control of a former 1st Round LHP draft pick. A couple minor moves that represent clear current upgrades in the pen for team-friendly contracts or a player with extra years of player control in exchange for some of the excess prospects now in the system, might serve both the short-term and the near-future. http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=12781&position=P&season=2015
  17. jokin
    1) They have already dumped Stauffer 2) They have kept Schafer in seemingly permanent limbo 3) They have made the first decisively fast DL move since I don't know when (Hicks) 4) They have called up and stuck with Rosario, despite not "mastering" AA or AAA 5) They have shipped out Nolasco twice to the DL already this year 6) They have been able to call up an actual MLBSP from AAA depth 7) They have called up their very best prospect, despite not "mastering" AA or AAA, missing last season, still only 21, etc. 8) They have signed yet another proven MLBSP, who takes the mound for the Twins for the first time, just 3 weeks from today
  18. jokin
    AAA? ASAP?
  19. jokin
    Good post, especially the call on trading Arcia. I just hope they don't move him when his potential value is at rock bottom, like it is right now. I would demur slightly on your last paragraph. The Twins upped the payroll to nearly $110M for a reason. If they stay respectably enough in the hunt, it seems they have already talked themselves into believing they did what they had to do to have a shot at post-season. That being said, TR in the past has shown a penchant for making a Shannon Stewart type move out of nowhere to bolster a perceived weakness. An offensive-minded catcher or SS would be a boon to this lineup. (Plus, they will have a need and the incentive to make trades going into offseason in order to lighten the logjam of possible prospects needing 2016 roster spots in November. Perhaps they might want to get an early start on that chore.)
  20. jokin
    Probably just a one-day thing. Molitor maybe acting on a hunch or wanting to keep Esco fresh as an option both at SS and LF. More interesting to me was the skipper apparently acting on a hunch to sit Vargas and place Nunez of all people, DHing in the 5 hole. Paid off big time today.
  21. jokin
    Yeah, because non-pitchers come up with a lame elbow 30 minutes before game time ALL the time... after no obvious on-field incident... and in the Twins case, ALL of those guys with sore elbows immediately go on the DL.... Not saying he doesn't have a little pain, or even a lot, but it's just one more piece of evidence, in a series of strange or questionable incidents in Hicks short MLB career. I've never met Occam, so neither he or his Razor can be my friend, but I would think that they would both consider all the evidence. Lots of convictions take place based on convincing/overwhelming circumstantial evidence,, Counselor.
  22. jokin
    Great post. I concur with just about everything, with the exception of : 1) Boyer, who seems like less than 50-50, probably closer to 1 in 3, that he can continue what he's done thus far. 2) Hughes has been an every other year pitcher, and his two seam FB and cutter are lacking in movement and location this year. Historically, he pitches better in the second half than the first, especially later in the season. I'd expect him to settle back up closer to career norms going into the second half and bouncing back next year. 3) I'd also give Meyer a lot better than less than a 1 in 6 chance of becoming a starter. Tall starters can struggle for years before getting down a consistent release point. I just hope it's the Twins he starts for.
  23. jokin
    Having sail all that, I'm not the one who has said that Hicks "sucks". In fact, I think he can still make an excellent 4th OF, as well as possible trade bait sweetener for another team in need. And I think the Twins are on that wavelength, as well.
  24. jokin
    I don't know who else has posted on this, but my opinion is not based on individual character, simply on how the Twins have handled him over the last two years, how he has reacted to what the Twins expect of him, and what information the Twins have chosen to make public about him. I think the Twins back-channel questioning of him began when they let it be known that he refused to got to winter ball in his first off season, and then was asked to leave a winter ball team the next off season. Patrick Reusse has written about the "Father-Son" tug of war as he was growing up. And we know about Hicks' preference for golf. And we all were quickly made aware of Hicks' unilateral decisions last summer to stop switch-hitting, and then start again. Right during his summary dismissal from the major league team, followed by no September call-up. And clearly, the new manager was none too pleased with Hicks' lack of attention to in-game details during Spring Training
  25. jokin
    Far different player than the one in ST. I doubt he's going to set MLB on its ear with his bat any time soon, but he's likely to be one of the top 2-3 CF in short order.
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