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jay

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Everything posted by jay

  1. jay
    You're right and there is no amount of surprise here.
  2. jay
    And yet another thread devolves to payroll and signing free agents... The silly part is that basically every argument here says the Twins should have signed a pitcher with the potential to be better than our current lot this off-season. Every single post I've read wants the Twins to be ready to sign a FA to help us contend. Yet, we still lambast any one who says TR should lay out a multi-year, high-dollar contract in the near future as opposed to 6 months ago. We're working up a lot of dust over some split hairs.
  3. jay
    Okay, I take it back. Putting their offensive stats into this Lineup Analysis and shaving off 10 points from OBP and SLG for missed games (played by replacement players) still results in a projection of 5.410 runs/game. We've scored 358 so far this year, while that lineup would have paced at 465. We're talking 107 runs. It's much more of a guesstimate with the bullpen, but if we shave off 13 runs, we end up with a bullpen ERA that leads the AL. So, we'd have given up 395 runs instead of the 408 we have allowed now. Plug those numbers into Pythagorean and, voila, we'd be on pace for 93-69 instead of 71-91 that our current numbers show. That would be quite the ideal scenario, but it's not quite fair to just pluck out the former Twins that are having career years in several cases. We'd have to consider all the others that have been passed on, how they're doing, and what they would've cost. RA Dickey's $12.5M isn't so hot this year. Johan's $24M wouldn't be getting any production. Matt Guerrier would be another $5M. It's easy to keep going and see how we could have a $200M payroll. We could probably paint a picture from the other end of the spectrum and show how bad we could be if we had kept all the wrong players and have a seriously bloated payroll.
  4. jay
    Rand did a fun little exercise showing that while we'd have a better lineup and (more) elite bullpen today, the kids wouldn't be getting experience. Meanwhile, our payroll would be $130M and the rotation... well, it'd be the exact same. I guesstimate we'd maybe be .500. Rand: "The lineup: If the Twins had all three of those outfielders, they wouldn’t have signed Josh Willingham. Aaron Hicks or Oswaldo Arcia might be here as a fourth outfielder, but not both. Ryan Doumit wouldn’t have a regular spot in the lineup with Ortiz here, so signing him would not have made much sense. And Hardy would be in at short instead of Pedro Florimon. So we’ll go with: 1) Gomez, CF 2) Joe Mauer, C 3) Cuddyer, RF 4) Ortiz, DH 5) Hunter, LF 6) Justin Morneau, 1B 7) Hardy, SS 8) Trevor Plouffe, 3B 9) Brian Dozier, 2B. • The bullpen: A back end of the ’pen featuring Crain, Nathan and Glen Perkins would be mighty nice. • The rotation: Completely unchanged, which is unfortunate. • The money: Here’s where things get tricky. The Twins would be spending almost $100 million on 10 players based on 2013 salaries, per baseball-reference.com: Cuddyer ($10.5 million); Gomez ($4.3 million); Mauer ($23 million); Hunter ($12 million); Hardy ($7 million); Ortiz ($14 million ); Crain ($4.5 million); Nathan ($7 million); Perkins ($2.5 million); Morneau ($14 million). [+$30M for the remaining 15 active roster spots] So Minnesota would have had a $130 million payroll, with the exact same starting rotation."
  5. jay
    The contentious point here is why the Twins FO hasn't engaged in flipping FAs for prospects. A guy who is still injured and will not pitch isn't even tradeable. A guy who has been mediocre yet improving, but perhaps even below replacement level by some metrics, is definitively worth more (but still, not much) should TR try to flip him.
  6. jay
    Richard (Saint Paul, MN): What are the chances that Sano is able to stick at 3b? J.J. Cooper: I think very good. Scouts who have seen him this year say they think the questions about him sticking there are very overblown. He may eventually outgrow the position, but that could be years from now.
  7. jay
    So, you'd be willing to give the completely unproven 29-year-old a starting job and discard the 25-year-old who has a 99 wRC+ (league average) this year with similar domination at AAA? I'm a Colabello guy, but I'm not sure I get the line of reasoning there.
  8. jay
    Hard to see how the Twins can win at this point. If they make a trade, they'll get blasted for dumping salary for a low-end prospect. If they don't make a trade, they'll get blasted for being idiots and not trading away vets on an expring contract. The return for Nolasco should pretty clearly show us the Twins won't be getting prospects of any value unless they move Perkins (please, no) or eat tons of salary (Morneau). The latter should be an option, but I don't actually think they'll trade the Maple Syrup Chugger and he's the only realistic target for that.
  9. jay
    In 140 ABs since April (SSS Alert!!), Hicks is at a .724 OPS. The MLB CF average? .726 It's hard not to envision him as at least a league-average contributor either at CF or even LF when Buxton is ready (MLB LF average - .737). I fully believe that an outfield of Hicks-Buxton-Arcia would be above average both offensively and defensively.
  10. jay
    I couldn't possibly agree more. I'd hope he gets on the roster as a RH option if basically anyone gets traded, but I'd also hope they find a way to get him on there either way. We are extremely lefty heavy.
  11. jay
    Honored again by TD's own Seth Stohs as the June hitter of the month. The June Minnesota Twins Minor League Hitter of the Month is... Rochester Red Wings 1B Chris Colabello (34-94) .362/.451/.660 (1.111) with four doubles, no triples, eight home runs and 26 RBI. I am certain I sound like a broken record, but the Chris Colabello story should be talked about more, and he should be getting even more attention. He debuted with the Twins in May and still was the choice for minor league hitter of that month. This month, he spent the entire time with the Red Wings and still was incredible. He hits for average, takes walks and hits for power. He is the force in the middle of the Red Wings lineup that has helped them get back over .500 again. Overall, in 77 games with the Red Wings this year, he has hit .358/.436/.653 with 22 doubles, 21 homers and 67 RBI. He was recently named to the International League All-Star team, and frankly, he’s been one of the best handful of players at any level of minor league baseball.
  12. jay
    Two of the top 3 and Alex Meyer at 32. I'd have to believe that Rosario might have been up for consideration. May, Berrios, and Kepler would be in the mix for a 100 list, maybe even a few others as well. These guys give me hope that we can contend for titles again soon. Not going to lie, I eat through post-it notes at work on a no less than weekly basis drawing up future lineups.
  13. jay
    I'd be stunned to see two, but I'd be plenty happy with one. I could only realistically envision the Twins moving one guy this summer prior to this and my point was more on what I think they'll do as opposed to what I think they should do.
  14. jay
    Right. And I'm a Cuddy guy. I'm thrilled that Mikey is having a great year, but making a comparison at this particular point in time with one at a career high and the other freshly on the DL only serves the purpose of making the broader picture harder to see.
  15. jay
    Welp, so much for a trade this summer. Harder to see Doumit or Morneau going anywhere with Hammer out. Maybe Willingham comes back healthy in mid-August, tears it up, and builds value for the offseason. The Twins will have some decisions to make at that point. If they want to keep Morneau, one of Willingham or Doumit will likely need to go so the kids can play.
  16. jay
    The system is indeed terrible, but that's not Carl's fault. I think you'd be hard pressed to find a single example of a billionaire who passed without using extensive estate planning. To me, that makes it a bit harder to draw connections to anything else from this. It's really too bad that ol' Carl didn't decide to leave a different legacy. Other teams have been able to privately fund a stadium and Pohlad Field could have been a gift to the people that would have gone a long ways toward changing some perceptions. Then again, given how he got to where he did... we really can't be surprised.
  17. jay
    MLB average at 1B is only .764, so I'd have to agree with Brock. I expected it to be higher than that before looking it up. With the number of strong contributors we project to have in other spots, there's nothing wrong with league average-ish. I certainly think Parm can be that guy.
  18. jay
    Doug Mientkiewicz and Tom Brunansky would probably say it's a possibility. Always enjoyed watching Mikey Baseball play the game and it'd be great to have him back some day.
  19. jay
    Assigning BABIP differences solely to luck is a common fallacy. While Hicks will inevitably improve on his, he wasn't making great contact and was striking out at truly obscene rates. A .340 for Arcia might be a shade high, but it isn't anywhere near unreasonable for a guy who can hit the ball and make hard contact frequently like he can. Even ZIPS projects .330 for the rest of the season. As Oxtung also illustrated here, trying to compare him to players from a different era doesn't work. Of course those previous Twins players had a better K-rate, the league average has increased 30% since just 10 years ago. Oswaldo needs to continue improving, but overly selective data doesn't prove much. 22 year olds that can hold their own tend to turn into solid contributors.
  20. jay
    As you mention in the very last paragraph, defense won't matter (much). The problem is, that's exactly where he's losing his WAR value. Arcia is 2nd in wOBA and 3rd in wRC+, better measures of offensive contributions (and more relevant for this discussion) than WAR.
  21. jay
    Interesting point and the need is currenlty there, but: 1 - Intra-division trades are rare enough to start with. 2 - The Tigers system is incredibly bare (I'd want Castellanos, and that's about it). 3 - Rondon will be up soon for a shot to close. 4 - Leyland wants home advantage in the WS that he expects to be in, so he's taking talent to the ASG. So, I think it's a non-issue.
  22. jay
    I wouldn't call Johnson a lock at all either. The Orioles will have at least Chris Davis representing already. I wouldn't automatically count Addison Reed, but I think it'll be either him or our old friend Jesse Crain to represent the Pale Hoses. Aaron Crow and David Robertson both made it in 2011, so set-up guys can't be ruled out. If 5 is the number of RPs, I'd see Rivera, Nathan, and Reed/Crain with 2 more spots. Perkins would be a great choice for one of those two and would add a much-needed lefty.
  23. jay
    If a corner guy gets moved in a trade, there's no question Colabello should take the roster spot. I'd assume Parmelee would go back to a full time role and Colabello would take over Parmelee's current part-time role. It's even better that Colabello is RH in my mind with all our lefties -- plenty of platoon/PH opportunities.
  24. jay
    Some various links to recent articles: Video clip from MiLB of oppo HR on 6/22 vs Louisville - Video Highlights & Clips - MiLB | Rochester's Chris Colabello homers - Video | Rochester Red Wings Multimedia 'Study In Perserverance', a 2-min video by USATODAY - Wings' Chris Colabello a study in perseverance - USATODAY.com Video Leading 1B vote getter in AAA All-Star Game fan balloting (still ahead as of June 20, voting is closed and rosters will be announced shortly): Colabello, Hawpe ahead in fan voting | MiLB.com News | The Official Site of Minor League Baseball Clubhouse prank or clubhouse mistake? Chris wore the wrong jersey in a MLB game: Y! SPORTS
  25. jay
    Chris came back for 1 AB vs the Nationals on 6/9 and has continued to destroy AAA both before and after. His .369/.437/.663 triple-slash (and 1.100 OPS!!) leads the International League in all three categories. His 18 HRs and 169 TBs are both good for 2nd. The hope is that we'll see Chris on the MLB roster for the rest of the season no later than some time around the trade deadline in late July if someone from the trio of Morneau, Willingham, or Doumit finds a new home.
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