beckmt
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Everything posted by beckmt
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One other note: You can find me online elsewhere, but you would have to know where to look, and I really doubt any of you would ever go there. But the areas I have been in are of the rich and famous.
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Retired, have been in the Twin Cities all my life, though could have moved. Computer person, though known outside of that world more than in, one of the best analysts in various areas, If you want an explaination to that use a PM. Started in baseball fandom young, remembered Jonny Pod and the 55 WS game 7. Was more of a Dodger fan into the 60's until almost 70. Also played over 30 years in a stratomatic baseball league here in town(it still exists). Was in the ballpark for 4 games between 87 and 91 WS, including game 7 in 1991. Have been blogging here for about 3 years, not as often as some, but since I am married and do other things, do not have as much time as I wish. Have met a few members in Ft. Myers 2 years ago, might get there this year, but since we winter in Clearwater, FL, may just see Twins when they come up this way.
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Rays have plenty of pitching, what they lack is a 1B player. Will that work with the Twins, maybe.
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According to LaValle in the morning StarTrib, Twins are about to move on and make plans for Dozier to be a Twin at the start of spring training. I know this could all be a bluff, but also could show the two sides are at an impasse and different plans need to be made moving forward.
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He had shoulder issues last year at the end of the season. Did not expect Urias, but want more than De Leon/Alveras and org filler. Need the third piece to avoid the chance of pitchers burning out. Now the Dodgers may not do that and I might have to look elsewhere. Dodgers do not have a lot of other options at this time. Both Forthsyte and Kinsler have more trade issues than Dozier. Only option would be if Detroit keep a lot of money for trading Kinsler and that still does not handle the extension he want to waive his no trade.
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DeLeon is iffy given his shoulder issues. Would want at least 2 including Alveras lottery tickets to make this work. Dodgers still look like trying to lowball, but may succeed with no other players for Dozier
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Gonsalves and he is rated #4/#5/fringe depending on website you look at.
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I think the Twins were trying to get another club into the bidding for Dozier. That does not seem to be happining, so Twins will have to make a decision to walk away or take the deal. Would like a better third piece, but to move forward, Twins may have to take the deal.
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Can we appoint Doogie as chief shrill for the Twins front office. Notice 1500 ESPN had Falvey on last night after 5 with Patrick. Listened a little, but had other things to do. Dozier was not discussed while I had it on.
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I hope that this moves. According to mlbtraderumors, Yankees are heavy into Quintana and Robertson. Wonder if that will pull Dodgers in that direction, only instead of Robertson, Dodgers just add White Sox 2B man and give the White Sox a better package.
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I also do not see Reyes on the table. But I think St. Louis would have to have him headline the package to be competitive. Mid level starters, Twins have plenty in their system. I want #1, #2 upside starters, even if they are further away, but it would just take more of them to move me. Still think Dozier has to be moved this offseason to move the needle and start the rebuild.
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Cardinals "Very Much In" on Brian Dozier
beckmt replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Tend to agree that the Cardinal offer is still light, no need for Wong. Can move Polanco to second and have Gordon up a year early or use Escobar and Vielma or Dan San for next year. Twins have little need for #3, #4 starter types, we have plenty. So for me to make any deal work would be the upside of the top piece or the inclusion of more than 1 lottery ticket. Lot more to be played. -
Remember Dodgers need a right handed hitting 2nd baseman. There just are not that many good ones that fit this restriction out there.
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This is the Dodgers stance and why this is a waiting game. Dodgers waiting until price drops to level they want and the Twins want extra prospects as the second name is still a long way from the major leagues and the #1 offering had shoulder issues last year. I agree it is best to sell, just do not sell short.
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Have no interest in Wong, but a third or fourth piece(lottery tickets) are certainly interesting.
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Twins position future looks fine to me. It is the pitching that needs a lot of work(or a lot of money). All of the above are in my plans for the future(with the exception of Murphy(possibly)). 2 years from now this will be a very good lineup, hope we have the pitching to match.
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Remember prospects are prospects until they are not. Arm troubles and lack of innings should certainly be a factor about De Leon. Twins need a good second and third piece to make this work. Second piece according to DaveW has been agreed upon. It sounds like the third and fourth piece are the issue between AAAA filler and prospects in the 25-35 range(lottery tickets). Twins cannot afford to miss on this trade, it is the one chance to improve quickly. Could be the Dodgers move on and go elsewhere. White Sox could be a wild card here, with Quintana and their 2nd baseman for a much bigger prospect haul than this deal. Dodgers could afford it, just do not know if they would do it. Line would be like(De Leon, Alverez/Bueller, Calhoun, Stewart and 2 or 3 other major pieces or headlined by Urias). Anything could happen. Losing the Dozier trade would be the worst thing for the Twins. Assumption would be Twins would have to buy a front line starter in 2018, assuming any of them would come here except in a huge overpay.
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You cannot tell Kershaw you have money issues and that will trump winning now. At that point Kershaw walks and probably signs with one of your major competitors. That is a disaster you will not recover from. The current Kershaw is irreplaceable.
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I have seen a lot of comments on why the Dodgers should not give what the Twins are asking. There is an underlying assumption here which may or may not be true. 1. Kershaw has a 2018 opt-out. If you are convinced Kershaw will never leave LA even if he opts out(and you can afford him with buco luxury tax penalited), you stance is correct. If you do not know above is a fact, then failing to set your team up for a late postseason run(be it with Dozier or other viable 2nd base options(this assumes upper tier(Rays, Tigers or Twins)), is asking if you fail to have Kershaw decide to leave for a club that is interested in winning the series(Cubs, Nats, Bosox, Yankees) for starters and you have nothing in return except for what the CBA allows. At that point in time you have a taxcap team without a legitimate chance to win it all(read current Tigers). Rays have no need to deal their 2nd baseman with receiving Bellinger in return. Kinsler would cost too much in tax penalties and extension to be an option. Probably would only cost De Leon, but the added tax issues will cost a lot down the line. Falvey and Levine should be given the benefit of the doubt on this issue. It is not the issue of which prospects you trade, but the context of failure of the Dodgers to be competitive in the postseason. This issue is what is being ignored by a great number of posters.
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Gonsalves and Mejia are both #4 to #5 starting pitchers with a slight upside to a #3. Why would I trade Santana for that? Twins have multiple options like Gonsalves and Mejia for the lower end of the rotation. If I went that route I would rather take 2 High A type lottery tickets. I might lose, but also might come out ahead big time. Remember Falvey has a reputation of finding gems at that level and I would trust that reputation for making that type of a deal work. If it does not, you have not lost a piece of the next very good Twins team, so go for it.
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Dodgers do not have a second piece higher than a #4 or #5 starter outside of Deleon Do not want cheap pieces and either should the Twins. Give me some meat otherwise find another organization that will not buy cheap. However consider De Leon, Alverez and a third piece if a prospect and not org filler to be fair.
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Let's break this down. Is Dozier worth more than a number 3 starter with outside upside to a #2. Is Alverez a sure thing or just a 30% - 50% proposition. I am among the few that seems to think that prospects are prospects until they fail or are proven. Twins need to get more tickets than a mid level rotation piece and at best a 50% prospect who could well turn into something good. I would want more. One reason Rays are not being addressed is that they want Bellinger. He is as close to a sure thing as the Dodgers have and the Dodgers have more starting pitchers and prospects than position players. One other thing Kinsler costs a lot more because of the luxury tax issue, so an extension or big pay raise to waive the no trade is a nonstarter.
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The Brightening Future Of The Twins Rotation
beckmt replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Twins have multiple bullpen options(Duffey, Chaigos, Jay(if he does not make it as a starter), Reed, Melokias(bad spelling I know), and several others. If all fails build the shutdown bullpen, if covers a great number of starting pitcher sins. One other good thing, managers have not figured out yet how to play against it. Look at it this way, how would Madden have to manage if he was looking at a bullpen that would only give up a run 50% of the time after they appeared in the 6th inning. It would change how you managed the game as you would have to be tied, ahead, or at worse 1 run behind starting the 6th inning. -
My read is that the Twins brass is not sold on Aleverz being an almost sure thing. So they want another lower prospect lottery ticket to balance out the risk. Or who they want is hitting a nerve with the Dodgers.
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Where Does The Twins Pitching Come From?
beckmt commented on Ted Schwerzler 's blog entry in Off The Baggy
I also wish May could be a reliever, but his back issue scare me. I see him as a #4-#5 starter with a chance to be a #3. Should be in rotation to start with Duffy moving to the pen(as suggested above). Rest depends on whether Dozier is traded and which close to major league starter comes back. More likely I see that person in the rotation, with Berrios in AAA with the task of learning fastball command(and will several of the rest of the close Twins starters). Otherwise why would you keep Allen as the pitching coach, when his philosophy did not mix with the rest of the orgainization.
