mlhouse

Yep to the last part. THe fact is the 1981 Twins understood they were going to be bad and basically made a commitment to develop a competitive team. They brought just about EVERYONE up in 1982. Gary Gaetti, Kent Hrbek, Tom Brunansky TIm Laudner, Randy Bush, Jim Eisenreich, Lenny Faedo Brad Havens, Frank VIola, Terry Felton, Randy Johnson. Everyone. THey knew they were going to suck and they sucked. That was the first, and until 2016, the only 100 loss team in MInnesota Twins history. But by bringing up an almost complete nucleus of a team and sticking to the rebuild they had an advantage in being able to push that core group aheadm Gaetti, Hrbek, Brunansky, Bush, Viola, weed out the others Faedo,Eisenreich, Havens, Felton, Johnson, and rapidly bring up their replacements, Gaetti, Puckett, Gene Larkin. From that moment they could then make some minor adjustments to fill in the holes that their system could not. Jeff Reardon. Bert Blyleven. I don't advocate the fast track for everyone. For example, a prospect like Kohl Stewart should be moved along carefully because his football time cut into his baseball development. But others should not be held back at all and should move until the find the level that cannot contain them, Stephen Gonslaves, injured right now, would be a prime example of that. As a 21 year old in AA Gonslaves had a 1.82 ERA and almost 11 k/9. I am sure taht the Twins plan on starting him there when he recovers from injury, and while that is probably a necessity I see zero reason not to call him up to the major leagues.

Everything is relative. While the fastball is faster, the hitters are bigger, bat speeds are quicker. Regardless, using a list of players that went directly to MLB as some sort of proof is meaningless. First, any player going directly to the majors in the 1950's, like Harmon Killebrew needs to be discounted because of the "Baby Bonus" rules of the day requiring players receiving bonuses to go directly to the majors. Since then, most of the guys that went directly to MLB without minor league experience were college level players. And no one would argue with most of the results of those players. But everything is relative. For teh TWins, if we drafted a college player with our first overall selection this June I would see no problem with bringing him up directly to the major league team given the right circumstance. I would not do that for every player. The one aspect aspect that I think my approach is the correct one is the fact that the Twins approach, which you are advocating, has not worked. You can make points about "baseball being different" and the like, but we have been bad for 6 years, we have had top of the draft selections, and our roster although spotted with some prospects from teh system, has holes all over the place and some of the better performers are older players like Ervin Santana who do not figure to play prominant roles when this team is finally truly competitive.

You realize that you are pretty much full of crap, right? Hrbek went Rk as 19, A- as 20 and A+ as 21 year old, getting the call up from Visilia in 1981. In 1982 he played the full season with the Twins and never returned to minor league baseball. So, I guess there is a chance that he could have moved up to AA instead of A+. They moved Gaetti, Hrbek's teammate at Wisconsin Rapids in A- ball to AA but he was a college draftee instead of a HS draftee, and regardless, Ulger only played 21 games at 1B at AA in 1981, so, nice try yarni....

Not supposed to be a major step. But these guys have paid their dues through our minor league system, and put up decent numbers at most of their stops. Why not give them a chance instead of all of these wash outs from other teams system? I would prefer to see what Hilderberger performs at the major league level than the crap the management brings up. Give him 30 appearances. See how he does. If he sucks, well, his career has topped out. If he does better than what is expected, then keep giving him the ball. There really isn't much to lose, is there?

Not really. Same minor league structure. I guess what I would say has changed is our system isn't very good. Our players are arriving at teh major league level, despite very conservative movement through the system, not well prepared.

Try Jason Wheeler or Aaron Siegers. Try D.J Baxendale or Trevor Hildenberger. Or David Hurlbut. Every one of those guys, with the exception of SIegers who is 24, is at least 26 years old. Lets see what we got in these guys and maybe one could be a decent long reliever or spot starter or 5th starter.

As I have stated, one of the major issues in rebuilding is finding the 99% and getting the 1% to replace them. If you fiddle fart around without making commitments it just delays the time in finding the player that will work out. I point this out over and over again. IN 1982 the original Twins center fielder was Jim Eisenreich. The Twins promoted Eisenreich from A- baseball with only 1.5 years of minor league experience. Could you imagine if the Twins then would have followed the path they use with their current prospects like Mitch Garver? Instead of debuting at 23, he would have been 25-26. I guess the argument might be maybe he would have overcome his issues, but the real point is that by the time they worked out Eisenreich, it would have been 1987 and Puckett woudl still be waiting his chance behind him, slowly moving through the minors. A guy like Kent Hrbek was brought up to the Twins rfrom A+ ball as a 21 year old. As a 24 year old in 1984 Hrbek finished 2nd in the MVP balloting.....in the modern Twins system he probably would have been bouncing back and forth between AA and AAA at that age.

As well as Santana is pitching I would not have signed him, at least not for baseball reasons. The guy is 34 years old. Maybe they thought the timeline of the team was more advanced but I think that was an illusion. And, while I agree with teh problem of failing to develop talent, especially when the team has lost so many games the past six seasons that they have been picking in the top 5 of the draft, part of the problem is that the Twins management, both the former and the current, seem to shy away from playing their prospects. Two examples are Berrios and Chargois. Maybe they both suck and will never develop as major league pitchers. But, what else do they ahve to prove in AAA? Chargois is already 26 years old and has a career 1.19 ERA in AAA and 2.42 in AA. His AAA K/9 is 10.3 and for every person he walks, he strikes out 4.78. Berrios is younger, just 23, but he already has 3 years of AAA experience with a 2.54 ERA. What more does he ahve to prove at that level? What has been lacking is a committment to the young players on this team to develop them at the major league level.

What, no I just said this metric had Castro as a positive player and now has him as a negative player. That is the very opposite of consistent. And he didn't suddenly lose his catching skills. He jsut changed teams just as Kurt Suzuki changed teams and suddenly he did the opposite. I am virtually certain you do not understand what you are saying.

Yep. Instead of rolling with our own prospects, the old and new management seems enamoured with retreads. I get that Tepesch has previous major league experience, but there are reasons why his previous teams let him go. As I have pointed out, the Twins history over this recent period of disaster is loaded with the Twins management bringing in other teams cast offs and medicorities rather than giving their own minor league prospects a chance. Starting from the first 99 loss season of 2011: Jason Repko, Steve Helm, Jamey Carroll, Josh WIllingham, Matt Carson, Jared Burton, Jeff Grey, Jason Marquis, Ryan Doumit, Clete Thomas, Chris Colabello, Doug Bernier, Eric Fryer, Kevin Correia, Mike Pelfrey, Josh Roenicke, Kurt Suzuki, Sam Fuld, Kendrys Morales, Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolansco, Jordan Schafer, Tori Hunter, Shane Robinson, Juan Centreno, Logan Schafer. And I am probably missing a lot of them. I get trying to bring in Tori Hunter to salvage some respect to from the fans, but what is a 39 year old outfilelder going to do to help a team that has lost an average of 96 baseball games over the previous 4 years. I get that we were bringing up prospects as we went but my argument is we gave too many opportunities to the list of rejects and non-entities above that should have went to the prospect, and they should have went to the prospects even if we were going to lose more ball games. An example I have used is Adam Brett Walker. Now, I am not claiming that he was ever going ot be a major league hitter. His strike out rate probably meant he would flounder. But he had hit 25 or more home runs in each step of the Twins minor league ladder and an OPS of around 800. But we had plate appearances to give Logan Schafer, Jordan Schafer, and Shane Robinson who probably did not combne for 25 home runs combined. Again, Walker is probably not going to work out but why not give him a chance and see what he can do? Maybe he strikes out in every plate appearance and then you just waive him. But, despite 124 minor league home runs in the Twins organization we did not even give him one sniff of the major leagues.

Yeah, I do because I know more about statistics than any baseball executive and most of the guys doing the statistical research. And it isn't even close. What the data shows is that Castro "creates" a net of about 1 extra strike per game for the Astros last season. Not one strike per at bat. Not one strike per inning. One extra strike per game. According to their estimates this saves 12-13 runs per game. I personally believe that is a very high estimate of the number of runs a SINGLE extra strike saves. But, lets assume that this is the upper bound of the stat, that is a negligible .1 runs per game. But again, I think the estimate of runs saved is over estimated because in the course of a game so many "strikes" are meaningless. In an example, with a 3-0 count the pitcher throws a strike, then walks the hitter on the next pitch. Regardless, there is another issue with this data. IT does not control for pitching quality, amongst other things. SO, lets look at Jason Castro's statistics for pitch framing for the past three seasons. In 2014, he created .61 extra strikes/game and that equated to 9 runs saved. 2015 1.04 extra strikes and 12.9 runs saved. 2016 0.92 extra strikes per game and 12.8 runs saved. Assuming the estimate, those are pretty good stats. IN 2016 amongst catchers with at least 3000 innings, he was 5th in the major leagues in runs saved. But, lets look at 2017 now that he is the catcher for the Twins. Suddenly, Castro's numbers are NEGATIVE. He went from a catcher who created about 1 net strike per game to a catcher that loses 0.73 net strikes/game. DId he suddenly get terrible? ANd what about the despised Kurt Suzuki? Last season with the Twins he cost the pitchers 0.40 strikes/game and this translated to an increase of 5 runs over the course of the season. But now, with the Braves Suzuki is in Jason Castro land, increasing the number of strikes by 0.95 strikes/game. Did Suzuki become good and Castro bad? Or does the quality of pitching influence these decisions? A good pitcher is going to be closer to the plate more often and throw with more control. A poor pitching staff is going to miss their target, causing the catcher to move more and not be close enough to the plate to have a chance at a ball being framed a strike. Here is the data so you can look for yourself. http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

1. It doesnt matter what our knowledge of Gimenez v. Garver. We are rebuilding. A 34 year old journeyman is not even a potential piece of our future team. The point is to find out what Garver can do, find out as soon as possible so that we can make a decision on whether he is going to part of it. Successful rebuilds quickly move on from the players that will not work. You move from Eisenreich to Pucket and from Lenny Faedo to Greg Gagne. 2. Pitching staff overperforming? You mean Ervin Santana. Take out Santana's innings at 0.77 ERA, and the rest of the team has an ERA of 4.58. I guess that is an improvement over last season but thinking it is due to the catchers is stretching claims. 3. As far as that, I believe that the research about "pitch framing" is overstated, and that even if it isn't, what a catcher like Castro gives you he more than takes away with his weak hitting. Lets get Garver up to the big leagues. Give him a significant portion of the ABs as a catcher and some other opportunities as DH and maybe even 1B.

But Garver can get ABs in a lot of different scenarios and in a rebuilding franchise he needs to be just given more PAs than what perhaps he has "earned". It would be different if I was arguing about bringing up a 23 year old from AA like the Twins did with Laudner (albeit Launder has 42 HRs that season) instead of a guy who is already 26 years old. When, if ever are they going to give the guy a chance to sink or swim? I get that this team is going to prefer retreads liek Nick Tepesch and Giminiz to giving their prospects a chance. But, then, that is why this team really sucks and have been over an extended period. I get everyone is excited with a 12-11 start and there was the fluke 500 season in 2015, but this team has lost 99, 96, 96, 92, and 103 games in 5/7 seasons and pretending we are contenders versus getting our prospects MLB development is idiotic.

We have a 26 year old catching prospect with a .935 OPS in AAA, and the Twins keep a 34 year old career backup backup on the roster to hit .167.

A few more years of AAA and JJ Berrios will be ready.

Yeah, in 12 years we will get Greene up to the majors.

Why would you be surprised the Twins are bringing up a guy like Tepesch instead of one of their prospects? Seriously, this is how the team operates even with the new people at the top. They would rather have 28+ year old mediocrities to pitch/play mediocre at best than get their young prospects up to MLB and give them development time. They pretend like they have a chance of competing and they are just fooling themselves. It is sad, sad, sad. The 90 loss seasons keep piling up and the is very little signs of it changing.

They arent limited to just one way, surely you jest. As far as the everyday players, yep. But lets look at that a little deeper. Two of the everyday players are 30 years or older: Dozier and Mauer. So, while I agree with you that they are "home grown" neither is really going to play a part of the long term future of the team at a competitive level. Mauer is part of the early 2000 team that was decent and Dozier has wasted most of his career being poorly developed by the Twins and then on their losing, long term rebuild? We agree on that? So, that leaves us with Sano, Polanco, Rosario, Kepler, Buxton, Santana, Vargas. Over the long run we know Danny Santana isn't going to be here. He had a fluke rookie season and since then has followed up performance that isn't MLB standards and he is 26 years old and showing no signs of getting better. The Twins keep him up because they just refuse to bring up prospects and would rather plug a mediocrity at best hitting .100 than take a risk. Vargas, I would put in the same boat. He hit with decent power over a short stint last season but the Twins obviously have zero confidence in him. NOt a total write off yet, but with his defensive limitations it is hard to see him long term. Rosario, I can see him filling a Randy Bush/Gene Larkin like platoon role with better defense. That can make him valuable in the long run and he still has some potential. Buxton? Already covered and it is starting to look like the writing is on the wall to me. I think Kepler, Polanco, and Sano have good potential yet. So, 3.5 guys with a total wild card in Buxton........not much to speak of. And, while I understand it is out of the ordinary, no one has refuted the concept that bringing up Buxton right up from A+ ball when he was at his minor league peak would not have been a good idea. Again, what was the downside? We would have lost more games since 2013? We would not have the opportunity to watch Clete Thomas, Shane Robinson, Sam Fuld, Jordan Schaefer, and Logan Schafer play gloriously in center field? That Buxton would have missed out on the fine development he obviusly had in his last minor league appearances that would have made his major league adjustment so much easier? I think the confidence he had as a player would have carried over and he would have adjusted. After that, he was frustrated because injuries derailed him and he did not hit MLB succesfully, the Twins have changed his swing over and over, and the fact is he is probably never going to develop. Even with that in mind, if we would have brought him up in 2013, and he would have failed, we would be in a solid position knowing he isn't going to work out and would already be developing the next CF while the team was losing. Now, 4 years later, we are still wondering. Like I have said, one reason a rebuilding team should "rush" their prospects is that some, even the most touted, do not work out. If you move them up slowly, that just pushes that recockning down the line when you need the players that can play to get competive (that is unless you are willing to live with many more years of futility).

Wow, not sure if anything can convince you then. I point out that the Twins pitching staff, despite multiple year of futility and high draft picks, has 4 marginal pitchers on the MLB roster? That is shrug? Go back to the last good season the Twins franchis had, 2011. 4 out 5 of their starting rotation was essentially homegrown (counting Liriano). Of their relief pitchers with the most appearances, 3 out of 5 were homegrown and this was before Perkins emerged as the closer. While there are a myriad of ways of building baseball teams, because of many factors (but mostly because our owners have always been too cheap), the Twins are limited to one real way: develop the players in house. The reason why this team hasn't been rebuilt is because they have failed in developing players.

Gibson, and Buxton, represent the total dysfunction of this team in developing their players. If you look at their current pitching staff, just Gibson, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffy, and Mike Tonkin were developed within the Twins organization. That is it. So, in the 6 years of futility and 90+ losses that gave us top of the order draft picks, the Twins have 4 marginal MLB pitchers drafted by the organization on the roster. FOUR. And it aint like any of these guys was rushed to the majors (Gibson was pushed, by the Twins standards a bit but that was because he had injuries). They all moved through the system basically stepwise. Buxton is a different case and it is baffling why he isn't performing even at a replacement level. But, I am going to tell you the mistake the Twins made with Buxton. They should have moved him up to the major leagues when he was 19 years old. The major league team in 2013 was a 96 loss team so bringing up a minor league player wasn't going to cost them anything and they had 322 PA available for a no-body like Clete Thomas. Bringing Buxton up at the height of his confidence would have probably changed this story. I have been saying this all along and Buxton is an exhibit of WHAT IS THE DOWN SIDE. We would have lost more than 96 games? We would have been deprived of the joy of watching Clete Thomas play CF? That Buxton would have shown up ready for the major leagues???? Really. At the MLB level this guy looks like he has never played the game before. What good did those extra games in AA and AAA do for the kid? Not a damn thing.

I am a critic of how the TWins manage their minor league prospects and LeBlanc is just an example. I really do not know what his true upside is as a professional baseball pitcher. He seems like a pitch to contact guy with a 6.40 K/9 through A+ and probably does have a limited future. But, he is a college draft pick and is not 25 years old pitching in A+ ball. The Twins management of him is typical. He pitched short season in Rookie+ in Elizabethton in his draft year. His first full professional season he pitched A- at Cedar Rapids, mainly as a reliever with a 3.03 ERA. Then, in typical Twins style they send him to a "prove it" start in 2016 again at Cedar Rapids before moving to A+ for the remainder with a 2 game coffee stop in AA (with a 0.00 ERA). Now it is back to A+ to start the season with another "prove it" start that he is passing in flying colors. So, if they follow this pattern he will be moved up to AA in midseason. Start 2018 to prove again AA and maybe AAA again. THen prove it in AAA some more. Get called up, notpitch well, bounce up and down. By the time he will even be looking at a chance in the majors he will be 27-28 years old. This process isn't getting the prospects up to the major leagues fast enough and it would be different if the prospects that our system finally gets to the majors was ready, but their arent. So it is obvious that our approach to developing players and rebuilding our major league team is not working yet we continue the same old anyways.

Hague is obviously the only one the Twins would be interested in calling up since he is a magical 31 years old. ANyone under 30 simply hasn't proven enough in the minors.

When I watch him I see Dwight Gooden.

I go to a few Miracle games a season, and sometimes the thought that these kids baseball careers are going to be coming to a close soon. It shows you how high the threshold to becoming a major league baseball player is. Most of these kids were the best players on their teams since Little League, all-conference players, and the best or amongst the best players in their state during their careers. Look at Austin Diemer. He was a 2nd team California All-State, his conference MVP two years running, a D-1 player at a top level baseball school, and a major league baseball draft choice. Luckily for Austin he also was great in the classroom so the end of this career just marks the beginning of another. Good luck to all of our Twins Nation, from Ft Myers through Rochester to the Big Leagues.

I think I take Greene, but then the Twins will have him move one step at a time through the minors, he will walk a couple in his debut, and they will bounce him back and forth until he is 25 years old before he is really given a shot, all the while they bring in worthless 34 year old replacement level players to pitch.