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I have suggested a much better approach than "analytics". Instead of drafting in June based on HS and college performance, invite draft prospects to play in the rookie leagues. Each team would operate a team with its current rookie league managerial staff and specialists, and potentially could have a preliminary draft so they could more closely evaluate the prospects they are most interested in. Each team would be fostered with enough players and pitchers so they could play serveral games a week and double headers, The normal short season lasts around 60 games, so with extra double headers this would give scouts the opportunity to evaluate players over 60-90 games playing against invite players only. After the short season then teams would conduct the player entry draft. They would not be required to draft only players from the invite league, and not all the players in the invite league would be guaranteed to be drafted. THe players would receive a stipend and allowance for playing just like rookie league players today. It might be worked out that teams could bring in their previously drafted players to compete in these leagues, or perhaps they would form additional teams in these leagues for more competition and development. The value to the league is that they get to evaluate the draft able players using wooden bats and facing select competition, with a reasonable sample size and hands on work with the players. There is a lot of value to most of the draftable players too. A hole in the system would be that I believe the top level players in the draft would skip the league, but players that would be non-first round picks and middle round picks could see lots of value proving that they are elite prospects. Think about Justin Mourneau, from a Canadien high school being allowed to show case his skills over 300 plate appearances. Instead of being a 3rd round pick, he would have probably moved up to the first round, and the guy the Twins took 5th overall in that draft, and gave a $1.5 million bonus, B.J. Garbo, would probably have fell a couple of rounds. In the end, it makes a lot of sense because the biggest problem in evaluating players is the differences in the competition level they play in. When there are thousands of high schools, tens of thousands of high school players, hundreds of college programs, and thousands of college players, the independent variables are out of control for a solid analytical approach. But, let's say you invite 600 players and you pay them $1,000 a month stipend, plus living costs for two months. The total cost would be under $2 million, divided between the 30 teams, makes the cost under $70,000 per teams.

But you aren't taking 30 PA of rookie ball. First, you are taking the stats of the DSL, not the Gulf Coast or Appalachian Leagues. Second, you aren't taking the "30 PAs", you are taking the overall statistics of 30 plate appearances. Third, the video in your post showing Javier in the batting cage, which would be recent, demonstrates the same batting mechanics he is showing in the batting cage in the video I posted. In the batting cage he makes pretty good contact because there isn't changes in velocity or plane. He can time his movements. But put him in a real game without the ball coming at the same speed and position, he is way off balance. I am sure that at lower levels, like the DSL, he probably can have some success with these hitting mechanics because he has tremendous bat speed. If the pitcher makes a mistake or he guesses right, he will club the ball. But if he continues this approach he is going to struggle even in the GCL and will consistently have very poor ABs. Unfortunately, these are not minor tweaks. His stance, his initial hand and elbow positions, the leg kick and weight transfer all need to be changed if he is going to be successful at higher and higher levels of ball. Some prospects can do it, some prospects cannot. I think that he has some natural skills that could lend themselves to making these adjustments. He has the bat speed and natural swing power. Also, he is an above average fielder. If he adjusts to coaching and gets better control of the strike zone, I think he is a prospect.

Over 30 pa in the DSL...... Watch this video. His contact is poor. His power is poor. I think if a pitcher is going to make a mistake pitch into his wheelhouse and he times it then with these batting mechanics he might make decent contact. The problem is, even in the Rookie League he is going to fact pitchers that do not make those mistakes except in rare occurances. I stand by my position, unless the Twins successfully change his hitting mechanics he has no chance of being a major league player and he would not have much success past A- ball.

Sorry, if you look at the other Javier video, not just the batting cage one, his swing is completely messed up. While he has very good bad speed, his balance through his swing is very poor. In actual game pitching his contact was mimimal, ticking pitches into the ground, and he lunged without power to make any contact. The lunging means that he is going to have a difficult time against even low level minor league breaking pitches because his "swing commitment" happens very early in his approach. He is going to weakly swing at a lot of breaking balls at least early in his career. Unfortunately the Twins minor league staff is going to have to completely tear apart his swing. They need to balance his intitial weight better and get him to keep more of his weight back at contact. If he maintains that lunging approach with all the foot movement he does not have a chance of being a major league player.

This is a problem within the Twins organization and it has been for a long time. One of the reasons for "logjams" is that the Twins will not trade a minor league prospect. If you analyze trades one thing you will realize is that the trade value of minor league prospects are highly inflated. Look at the trade rumors surrounding Dozier. If the rumors are true, the Dodgers basically would not offer more than DeLeon for him. DeLeon is a pretty good prospect, but 1-1 for Brian Dozier? The Dodgers did trade him for another 2b 1-1 which still shows the inflated value of prospects. Second, the Twins methodical and (overly) conservative approach to minor league development and preference for mediocre waiver wire/offseason signing veterans over their own prospects helps create this logjam. the obvious reason for this is that the Twins organizaiton is too cheap and too conservative, as well as being too frightened to make a bad trade where the prospect we trade develops into a good player. If you want to have a truly successful organization (winning the AL Central is not enough), you have to utilizat all of the value in your organization. This means identifying the good prospects from the bad and trading away the bad but overrated prospects at inflated prices.

I am going to repeat some of the observations I have made on Stewart. 1. The comment about being competitive made above is very true, but he might be too emotional. IF something goes wrong out on the field he comes back to the dugout angry. I remember one time Stewart coming off the mound, talking to Gonsalves and Smith, just totally emotional. Stewart walks away and Smith and Gonslalves were laughing. 2. The problem with his K-rate is his slider. His command of his fastball is excellent, and he has 92-94 velocity. His slider could be a very good out pitch but right now it does not have enough vertical (it doesnt have any) movement so batters are able to get their bats on it. 3. Because of his command of his fast ball and change, hitters do have a very hard time making good contact on him at the A+ level. He can put the ball inside and out, and hit all the zones. A+ hitters struggle to get good timing and the hardest contact these guys make against him are change ups they are way out in front of. 4. His curveball is a secondary pitch in his arsenal and I think it can one day be a plus pitch. Right now it is a flux pitch and he doesnt throw it often. When he is on, the hitters are frozen. The problem is that his mispitch rate on the curve is 50+%. Stewart's upside in a MLB rotation depend on the slider. AS someone above noted, I think a lot of it is his arm slot on delivering the slider. I think he can adjust a bit to give his slider more bite. I also wonder if the Twins are delaying this to try to prevent injury to his elbow in throwing these tighter sliders. If he gets command of his slider to the level of his fastball/change, he can be a #2 pitcher in the majors. If he figures out his curve, he has a chance at a 3-4 spot. His ERA and total production show the command of the basic pitches, but without the slider or even a curve, major league hitters will be able to get much better contact than the low minor league guys he has faced.

Wouldn't it be nice, for once, to be a fan of a team that didn't make their decisions based on $50,000. The best player in the Rule V draft is X, we have the pick, so we take that player rather than play these games. I have a friend whose father in law had a high level position in the organization. His MLB peers made fun of him because almost to the end of his long career he had to share hotel rooms with other staff. The Twins would also make their upper management fly commercial coach. I once sat 2 rows behind Ryan and Bill Smith on a Sun Country flight. Ryan was still the GM. A harbinger of the failure of Bill Smith probably was observed on that flight. Ryan studied computer printouts the entire 3 hour flight, every once in a while waking Smith up from his nap. THe Twins are and always have been a cheap organization.

1. Yeah, the kids would get paid to participate, playing in existing minor league teams. You could end the season in September to let HS players elect to go to college. 2. Just like the current rookie league design, you could have +/- levels. 3. There is mutual benefit for both teams and draftees. My guess is that the highest echelon players expecting to go high in the draft might skip, although that could work to their disadvantage too. 4. The advantage of this league is that the sample size is over many more games against a higher level of competition.

I only go to a couple. Part of the problem in SW Florida is that it rains every late afternoon/early evening during the season. So, about half of the time I think about going the storm moves in and I change my mind (often it is gorgeous at game time though!). I think that the Twins could work on Kohl's slider though. I am not certain but it could be a small change in his angle of attack that could change its movement significantly. I could be wrong on that but one reason the Twins might not want to change his arm motion is the fear of injury. THe other point I made was that I thought Stewarts curve has some chance of being a plus pitch if he can gain consistency, and I think that would help him strike more hitters out and move him up a notch in upside. While I am a big advocate of rushing players through the minors on a rebuilding team like the Twins (understanding that you need coaches at the MLB level patient enough to work with the young players), Stewart is one that I think a more conservative approach is warranted while he develops these secondary pitches. The patience could be enough to make him a #2-3 starter instead of a #5.

I'm not sure. I think it is very difficult to scout baseball draft prospects because the competition is so varied. I dont know if you are old enough to remember B.J. Garbe, the Twins 5th pick in the 1999 draft. Right after he signed, I went to a Elizabethton game to watch him play. Garbe was touted as this great athlete and won the 1999 national HS player of the year award. But looking at him in person he didnt look overly athletic. And, watching him have 4 at bats in Rookie league was enough to convince me he did not have the bat speed to make it to the major leagues. I called my friend whose father in law ran the Twins Minor league system and stated that. While maybe I was lucky with such a small sample size to make that correct determination, it made me think that baseball needs to change how it drafts prospects. My idea is this. Instead of holding the MLB draft in June, wait until October/November and invite eligible players for the draft to play in Rookie leagues. You could create double roster sizes and play double header games until the draft. THen, instead of evaluating B.J. Garbe agaisnt fellow Washington state high school players, you can evaluate him against top level high school and college players. He is going to see 90 mph fastballs and pitchers who can actually throw off speed (Tim Spooneyburger pitched for Danville in that game and fluxomed the Elizabethton hittes with his offspeed pitches). IN those months of double headers you will get nice sample sizes to evaluate. Then, instead of making B.J. Garbe the 5th pick overall and giving him the huge signing bonus, you take Justin Mourneau with that selection instead and give a more deserving player the money, making your investment have a higher ROI. My friend's father in law hated my idea! The reason is each of these teams think they have scouting secrets but MLB draft results indicates otherwise.

Against HS hitters? The guy has a very good fastball, 92/94 with very good placement. He has a very good changeup that keeps hitters off balance. He induces a lot of ground balls. His minor league career ERA demonstrates that he has some solid positives. So, why doesn't he miss bats and have a higher strikeout level in his movement through the lower minor leagues? I gave you the answer from personal observation. His slider. From a velocity standpoint his slider is good, sitting in a midrange between his fastball and offspeed pitches. It has some movement on it too but that movement stays in the same vertical plane. He just doesnt get any downward movement. So, even at the less advanced levels the hitters can make contact with it and rarely miss. If you guess fastball or guess slider, and swing, your bat is going to be in the correct vertical plane to make contact. At the lower levels the hitters often do not make solid contact with these pitches, but advanced hitters will probably be able to adjust and increase the contact level. To get more strikeouts he needs to miss more bats and he needs more vertical movement on his slider or potentially to use his curveball more. His curve isn't a bad pitch but it lacks consistency in placement and movement. Like a lot of young guys he can miss badly with it but when he throws it well it has good movement and lots of deception.

I live in Ft Myers so watching Kohl Stewart in person is something I have done. One of the main criticisms of Stewart is that he does not miss bats. The reason for this is the movement plane of his slider. It stays too much in the same plane. Because of this, even if non-advanced hitters guess wrong between fastball and slider, they are not going to miss. They might not make solid contact all the time, but more advanced hitters will be able to adjust on the pitch. Right now, Stewart is a fastball-changeup pitcher that can spot the ball well with nice change of speeds. His curveball can be an effective pitch but he is very inconsistent with it now. To be a top half of the rotation starter in the big leagues Stewart needs to develop some bite to his slider so that it drops plane and makes hitters miss it.

Ok....the Twins have the 1st, 35th, and 37th pick in the 2017 draft. You get to pick ANY player from this list you want. Then one player ranked 30+ and another ranked 35+. Who are your 3 selections? http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=draft Mine? 1. Jeren Kendall OF Vandy Greene is really tempting but a HS RHP is a tough buy at this spot. I think Kendall is a 5 tool guy that is going to be hitting in the 3rd spot in this lineup very quickly. 35. Shane Baz RHP Texas HS 37. Griffin Canning RHP UCLA

It will, but in some ways 2016 was equivalent to the 1982 Twins season. THe only difference is that the 103 loss season is the 5th out of 6 years of 90+ loss seasons. The rebuilding that happened in 2016 should have started sooner. Here is an example of the problems the Twins management have had. Adam Brett Walker. Now I get it, Walker's problem with making consistent contact in the minor leagues probably indicates that he was never going to be a major league hitter, and a guy with a 33% minor league strikeout rate isn't likely to get better at the major league level. But then, his OBP rate wasn't terrible. He had tremendous power, hitting 25 or more home runs in each of his full professional seasons. His career OPS was almost .800 and he had 5 home runs and a .800+ OPS in 2015 Fall Instructional league. Reasonable speed and probably would have been an adequate corner outfielder. Again, I get the negatives probably far outweigh the positives. But the Twins never gave him a chance, not even a September call up. Before you go on about roster spaces and such, we had roster space and September at bats for Logan Schafer, a guy who hit 32 total minor league home runs in 2444 PA. We had a roster spot for Darin Mastrioanni, a 30 year below replacement level player who had 23 home runs in 3801 minor league PAs. Yet, we didn't extend a September call up to a guy we sent to the Arizona Fall League the year before, who played well at every level of his professional career in the Twins minor league system, and had an unknown upside at the MLB level. That is what has been wrong with this organization for the past 6 years.

As I have pointed out in this forum over and over again, the reason why the Twins have not even come close to following the 1987 Twins road map is that they have played it too safe and too conservative. From a low point in 1982, the Twins went from a 100+ loss team to World Series Champs in 1987, and repeated with the same core players in 1991. As this article points out, the difference between the 1983-1986 teams, and the 1991 from the 1988-1990 temas, was some fine tuning. It takes time to be able to be able to evaluate your prospects at the MLB level. Because some of the prospects, even the highest rated ones, fail for one reason or the other the process is completely dynamic. But the modern Twins management approach has been too conservative. The 1982 team moved players like Hrbek and Laudner from A+ ball directly to the major leagues. College level prospects like Gaetti and Viola jumped levels in the minors and then moved to the Twins lineup from basically AA ball. Not all of the prospects worked out. Jimmy Eisenreich didn't work out because of illness. Brad Havens looked like the best pitching prospect in 1982, but injuries inhibited his effectiveness. Other players, like Lenny Faedo, just were not good enough, But, by moving these guys up quickly, Eisenreich from A- ball at 23 years old, Faedo as basically a 21 year old AA player (who jumped from RK to AA as a 19 year old player) we were able to find their replacements quickly. The current Twins management would have moved the 19 year old Faedo, their 1978 first round pick, one level per year and then bounced him back and forth between MLB and AAA. He would not have even got a September call up until he would have been 24 years old and even considered for a starting position until the next season, which would have been 1985. Then a year or two of evaluating, and the year would have been 1987. But, fortunately for the Twins of that era, they moved Faedo in quickly. FOund he could not play, and by 1985 23 year old Greg Gagne was the starting shortstop and in 1987 he had 3 full years of MLB experience. Kirby Puckett emerged in 1984. The other players: Brunansky, Hrbek, Gaetti, Viola, etc improved and the missing pieces, like veteran Bert Blyleven were added as needed once the team built.

"But this feels like skipping a step. Chargois still only has 25 major-league appearances. Throwing him into the fire so quickly could prove detrimental. Why not take it a bit slower and let him work his way up?" Because they could have done that ALL SEASON in 2016, but decided they preferred mediocrity over the unknown. I am sure that wiull be the plan for 2017. Use Chargois in a set up role and Kintzler as the closer. Of course, what value using a 33 year old closer will have over the future is debatable and you really cannot tell how a guy is going to hadle the closer role until, well, you make him the closer. Everything else is just simulation to a degree. One of the problems with the Twins is that they seem to pretend that some of these guys are 19 year olds. JT CHargois will be 26 years old before the start of the 2017 season. How much more "seasoning" does he need before he is going to contribute? I realize that injuries have delayed his progression through the minors, but there comes a time thta a "prospect" needs to either sink or swim.

I doubt you read those comments from me. This "rebuild" is so far from being done.

Help them win 61 games instead of 59? Right now this is a total rebuild. There aint no "helping". If the Twins would have recognized this 3 or 4 years ago it might be different now. But they stubbornly clung to the "lets push a mediocre product" out on the field, pretended they could continue the conservative minor league promotion system, and have lost 90+ games 5 out of the last 6 years (with the 2015 season remaining a total fluke), have more losing to do, and despite their methodical minor league approach have young guys at the major league level lacking fundamentals. Instead of continuing these errors, the time to totally commit to rebuild is now. This past season was the start and hopefully equivalent to the 1982 season. Get the rest of the prospects up now or sooner rather than later and see what happens.

1. We already have done the "acquire" the players and that has been a disaster. IT put the development timeframe completely off because the relatively expensive players they signed: Hughes, Nolanso, and Santana were put in with a bunch of mediocrities and/or developing players that are not effective yet. Bad move and should not be repeated. 2. The 1985 move to get Blyleven certainly was a move by a competitive team. The Twins had competed in 1984 and they had been radically improving from 1982 - 1984. 3. I would say essentially the same about 1991. While they were in last place, the entire core of the team was present. This wasn't a team filled with unproven rookies. Hrbek, Puckett, Harper, Gagne, Gladden, Mack, Larkin, Bush, Tapani, Aguilera, and others were on the 1990 team which had a bad year. Scott Erickson made his debut that year and Chuck Knoblauch would in 1991. Adding Morris was a good move to add to that group and probably was enough to get them over the edge. 4. So, it is obvious that the best move this season and perhaps the next is to get the young players up and player. Lets call the 2016 season equivalent to the 1982 season. Let some growth happen in 2017 and perhaps 2018. THen see were you need to add pieces. 5. LOL at your claims I am calling the Twins prospects busts. The problem is that it takes time to develop and evaluate prospects. The Twins approach has been too methodical and that is why we have lost 90+ games 5 out of the last six years, with the 6th year being a 100+ loss season, and there are at least one if not two expected losing seasons to go. 6. And, as I have stated in other responses, the sad thing about the Twins methodical approach is that even as they move their prospects slowly one level at a time at best, they still arrive at the major league level unprepared and lacking in fundamentals. That is a huge indictment against the management of the organization.

Nope. The Twins need to follow a standard course in their rebuilding of their pitching staff. Two steps. First, get their young prospects up and throwing at teh MLB level. Weed out the bad and develop the good. Second, use their existing assets to acquire pitching prospects. When the team has played all of their chips and hopefully have a competitive team, they can fill their holes with veteran acquisitions. Blyleven was the guy (added in 1985) that helped fill otu the rotation in 1987. Morris was the guy in 1991.

And if they did "force" the employers hand then they might need to adjust. To acquire talent that they need the teams dole out millions of dollars in signing bonuses. Once those bonuses are exhausted, the remaining draft picks need to make the decision, their own objective decision, whether they want to continue to play baseball. The decision is based on many factors and each individual weighs them in their own way. Some might believe they truly have a chance of making the big leagues. Others might just want to bum around for a while continuing to play the game. Others might not have other economic alternatives. The other side of the economic equation is that minor league baseball is not a hugely profitable activity. IF you look at the Ft Myers MIracle, their total season attendance is only 125,000. My guess is that the entire profit margin of teh operations comes from the money they get from their major league affiliation. THe truth is, the minor league baseball could probably pay a salary of $0 and they would still fill their rosters.

The problem with this argument is economic. If you do not pay enough in wages you will have a shortage of workers or a lack of quality. Minor league baseball does not have that problem. If anything, they have too many applicants for the available jobs. Maybe someday in the future the teams will notice that they are not getting enough of their draft picks or even undrafted players to sign contracts to field all of their minor league teams. If that situation arose, then the teams would have to consider raising the minor league compensation to address such a shortage.

Well, the problem with your argument is that neither Garver or Turner are 21. Garver will be 26 years old before the start of next season. Turner will be 25. So, if you push off their major league debuts for a couple of years then you have missed their window.. The awful aspect about the catching position from a Twins perspective is Garver and Turner are the only reasonable prospects above rookie level baseball. So, the "blueprint" for the catching perspective is to get Garver and Turner up, develop and evaluate them, and find what roles they can play going forward. If one or both do not work out, then the catching position is going to have to be filled by catchers from outside the organization for several years. Since these players would almost certainly be marginal level players at best, lets hope one or both of Garver and Turner can demonstrate they are MLB level players.

And, I think that the probabilities are that he will not be a good MLB starting pitcher. But, in the rebuild you just don't assume. Put him out there every 5th day with the ball. If he sucks, like he probably will, then that will be very apparent. One of the main things in a rebuild is you have to find the failures too. Give him a chance. He already has some expereince at MLB level, so you can move on from him quickly. AS far as teh young catchers, I think what you are saying demonstrates why this rebuilding process has been so long and so frustrating. IN a rebuild that is what the coaches are for. The previous and current managers and coaching staff want and expect their players to know stuff they don't know, and since they expect that they would rather play a replacement level player and not have to manage/coach than develop a player by teaching him the intricacies of the game. In any event, the Twins need to commit to their young catchers and teach them the game. In 1982 the team handed the job to Laudner. Sure they had Sal Butera around and maybe that is what you do next season; hand the job to Garver and keep some low level veteran around. But why not make the full commitement, work with the catchers and pitchers, and hopefully one or both of these guys develops into a servicable catchers into the future.

But you don't know, either, do you. One of the main things a rebuilding team needs to do is find out, one way or the other, if a guy is going to make it. YOu put Brad Havens and Frank VIola in the lineup. One made it, the other didn't. AS far as "one guy in the majors before", for what reason? Turner and Garver are the potential backstops of the future. Put them in the game and find out how it works.