mlhouse

Ditto…but I am glad I was wrong. The problem was the critical need for pitching.

I have to admit that I did not think that the Twins would make these moves and I am not certain that they are the right ones. We simply are not a good team even adding these two guys. IS there value in searching for mediocrity? Would we be better off being BAD for another year or two, putting in our young players to develop together, AND THEN filling in the blanks with a couple of free agent signings like this? Sorry, but it is really sad that our ownership has made it really exciting that we just might, if everything goes well, win 75-80 games.

The biggest problem that the Twins have in "rushing" their prospects to the major league level is management. They simply do not have a manager and coaching staff that is good at developing players. In fact, the current Twins staff appears to me to be uncomfortable with having young players in the lineup. They are intolerant of their mistakes and their behaviours. To rebuild a team you need to put the ball in the hands of young pitchers and place young hitters in the lineup that will simply exasperate you. They will make mistakes. But, you have to accept those mistakes as learning opportunities, find ways to correct them, and find out which players cannot improve upon their mistakes. You will lose ball games by the batches. It is investment for the future. The problem with the Twins team going forward, however, is that they have lost all of those ball game without gaining any future value of etting young players experience and weeding out the players that cannot make it. We have lost 95+ game for three consecutive seasons without developing a single player that is a sure bet to help us going into a winning future. That is the saddest commentary possible for the past three years.

The Cubs would laugh at such an offer.

Like I said, mine is lame too. The problem is that the Twins management has not created many opportunities for themselves. Despite losing 95+ games for 3 consecutive seasons we really have not been in any type of rebuild mode. ANd the other part is just pure realism. IT is highly doubtful that the Twins are going to suddenly open up their pocketbook. Decades of history have set their course. I think you missed the fact that I project the Twins signing some low end free agent to play first. Doumit is only "penciled" in from what is on the roster now. And, in the case of Alex Meyer, again, if he is not ready now, when will he be ready? Seriously, Meyer will turn 24 in Jan 2014. When Frank Viola was 24 he pitched 257 innings, went 18-12, and had a 3.21 ERA. The fact is, even Frank Viola was not ready for the major leagues when he first came up. But, they let him develop even though that meant he got battered around a bit. Viola's first two seasons with the big league team he had an ERA above 5. But, he took his lumps and it paid off. THe point with Meyer is put him on the mound. Get him major league innings. Let him take his beatings and probably, like Viola, occasionally show glimpses of his upside. His ERA will probably be 5+, but we might as well get these development years out of the way NOW. He is already two years behind Viola in development which means Meyer will lose two years of his baseball prime. What does this team have to lose? The Twins world series core was brought up together in 1982 (including Viola) with several of these guys getting their first taste of big league action in 1981. Unfortunately for Twins fans, I think we are in the 1981 year and that will be another losing season. I believe 2015 will be equivalent to the 1982 season with most of our new rebuilding prospects making their full season MLB debut. That year could be another 95+ loss year but just like in 1982 it might be somewhat entertaining because we will be able to see what these guys are capable of. It is a long road back. It took the Twins 5 years to put together a team that could contend. But the sooner we get it started, the better.

Lame.... here is my blueprint. It is probably as lame, but then I have not run the Twins to 3 consecutive 95+ loss seasons with very little to show for it. Lets start with about the only solid position on the team, catching. Joe Mauer is still a quality player, but injury concerns and career longetvity are a factor. Mauer is going to play 50% of the games at catcher, with Josimil Pinto playing the other 50%. Mauer will play catcher 100% of the time against LHP with Pinto being the DH in those situations. Mauer will then play another 55 games at DH and 1B. Outfield. Arcia is about the only young player that has been "developed" in this gloomy three year stretch. It is highly doubtful that hte Twins will trade him and he is penciled in as the everyday RF. Aaron Hicks needs to start the season in the majors as the starting CF. THey need to take this season to prove if he can make it in the majors. When you rebuild a team, some of the options work and some fail. BUT YOU HAVE TO PUT EFFORT INTO THE FAILURE. The Twins 1980's rebuilding process did not find a solution to CF until midway in 1984 with Kirby Puckett. But Hicks needs to prove he belongs or not by playing in the majors, not being evaluated in the minors. Josh WIllingham is penciled in as the starting LF. Obviously he is not part of the rebuilding program, but what he is auditioning for is a spot on anotehr team. Hopefully a healthy Willingham will hit the ball and we can move him before the trade deadline. Alex Presley should be the 4th OF. In the infield, unfortunately the Twins are set at all four positions. Brian Dozier is at second hoping to prove that last year's season wasn't a fluke. If he can continue to hit at that pace he will have a solid MLB career. WIthout any other options, Pedro Florimon is the SS. In a team without many other options he is the least of their problems because he is a reasonable fielder and has a little pop in his bat. At 3B the Twins will stick with Trevor Plouffe at least for a half a season. But if Sano has any early success in the minors he is being brought up. Development can and should happen at the major league level and this is an opportunity to get a jump start on Sano's career. At the utility infield positon the Twins really do not have many options. Over the long run I think that the utility guy should be Brian Dozier and I would give him 16 games over the first half of the year playing 3B platooning with Plouffe at the position. I doubt the Twins will promote Santana or Rosario in 2014, and they will most likely find some low end veteran like Jamey Carroll or stick with Escobar or Bernier as the extra infielder. At 1B the Twins really have few options. Ryan Doumit would be the player that is penciled in from the group of players already on the roster. This is the place were they go find a low end free agent of dubious quality to demonstrate more futile play in a major losing season. In the 2nd half, I can see Plouffe and Mauer/Doumit platooning at the position. The starting pitching is even more of a problem. Kevin Correia will be the "ace". If he remains injury free he should be good for 185 innings at 4.00-4.75 ERA. Not a bad 4th starter but we just have him at the top of the pile. If I am the Twins and he is healthy, Alex Meyer is my 2nd starter. There is no reason why (again, if healthy) for him to pitch in the minor leagues. He will be 24 years old next season. He is either ready or he is not. By comparison, when Frank Viola was the age of Alex Meyer he had already pitched 593 major league innings and as a 24 year old had a 18-12 year with a 3.21 ERA. What are they waiting for? But then, this is the Twins so Meyer will probably start the season in AA, then move to AAA and at best a late September callup that really means nothing. This isn't rushing some high school guy, this is a college drafted pitcher. My guess is the Twins will attempt to find another Kevin Correia here, but the problem for them is that in their perrenial search for Kevin Correia they have struck out 5 times for every Keving Correia they have found and their biggest target is probably bringing back Mike Pelfrey. The 3rd, 4th, and 5th starters will probably be an up and down escalator that features the names of Scott Diamond, Samuel Deduno, Andrew Albers, Liam Hendricks, Kyle Gibson, and Vance Worley. But, in my opinion, the 3rd starter on this existing staff should be handed to Anthony Swarzak. For some reason, this guy pitched 96 innings in last seasons debacle at a 2.91 ERA. It is baffling that they gave the ball in the first inning to start the game to Hendricks (8 starts), PJ Walters (8), Cole DeVries (2), and Pedro Hernandez (12) without ever once putting Anthony Swarzak in the rotation to see what he can do. Stupid is, as stupid does. THis was stupid. Kyle Gibson is my 4th starter, sinkerball or swim. In a way, Gibson reminds me of Scott Erickson. Erickson had such a tremendous start to his career with his sinking fastball. As a 22 year old he went 8-4 with a 2.87 ERA in the latter part of the 1990 season, then went 20-8 in the World Series 1991 season as a 23 year old (again, why are we moving these top prospects along so slowly???). But, after that, Erickson was not as successful and one reason for that is hitters learned not to chase the sinking fastball. Gibson needs to incorporate his sinker with his other pitches, including a 4-seamer that he can throw to get ahead of the hitters. If he can do that, he could develop into a very nasty pitcher. THIS IS THE YEAR TO SEE IF HE CAN. Give him the ball and let him throw innings. As far as the relief crew, that is the 2nd strength of the team. The entire bullpen should be brought back. In my blueprint we need a replacement long reliever for Swarzak, but that is not a difficult player to replace. The real work starts after this season. Sano might make his MLB debut in 2014 (probably not knowing the Twins) and Rosario, and maybe even Buxton might get a cup of coffee. But in 2015 almost all of these prospects shoudl be at the major league level. That year might be a bad season, just as 2014 projects to be. But by then we should have most of the pieces put together for a true contending team.

Normally this would be a signing I would not consider, but the first question is for how much? If Kubel could be signed for a very, very reasonable contract no more than two years in length he should be considered. The reason for this is "investment". If Kubel comes back healthy and hits well, then he can be moved to a contending team for value. In the end, my guess is that is what some contending team will consider and will sign him to be a bat on the bench with the hopes they are getting a bargain.

He is a candidate, and probably a no-brainer candidate because the Twins have so much dead weight on their 40 man roster.

What eggs? Seriously? Maybe this is the year!!!! We have only been waiting for the Twins to spend on free agency for 50 years. I highly doubt the Twins will seriously compete for any free agents that command a salary above $5 million and they probabliy figure that keeping Kevin Correia is more than enough "investment".

No matter how much they talk now, when the real negotiations start I doubt the Twins sign any free agent.

Parmalee is probably an example of a failed prospect. That is one aspect of rebuilding that is often ignored and why it takes time. Not every prospect works and you need to give them a chance before moving on. But the Twins simply have not done enough of this elimination and have definetly not found any keeps.

I think that the answer to the question is obvious and thus knowable, because of the results. We have had three consecutive 95+ loss seasons. This is the worse three year stretch in Twins history, with only 1981-1983 being comparable. But the significant difference between this miserable losing period and 1981-83 is that the has been almost a void in player development throughout. IT HAS NOT BEEN A REBUILDING PERIOD AT ALL. By 1983, Kent Hrbek, Gary Gaetti, Tom Brunansky, Greg Gagne, Frank Viola, Randy Bush, and Tim Laudner all had extensive major league experience. Other young players like Jim Eisenreich and Lenny Faedo had been tried and failed. The core of the team was melding together and by 1984 the wheat and chaff separated, allowing replacements to come in and replace the prospects that have failed. Thirty years later, I would argue we are no where close. We got glimpses of Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks, Kyle Gibson, and Josmil Pinto but those glimpses reflect the beginning of the rebuilding cycle rather than the middle/end (more like 1981 than 1983). We certainly cannot tell if any of them along with Brian Dozier/Trevor Plouffe will be able to contribute to a winning team. Not all of the problems are Gardenhire's alone. The management and ownership have failed him too. But, it is clear that Gardenhire does not have the patience to work with the younger players and that this has impacted our lineup as we went forward from 2010. Instead of having a rebuilding team, we just put out a cheap, less than mediocre team that had no chance to win and had not chance to get better.

The Twins need a manager that can develop young players. The proof is not just the 3 consecutive 95+ loss seasons, but rather, throughout those miserable years we have not developed a single player that we can count as a true rebuilding piece going forward. Although the Twins upper management needs to share in this problem, Ron Gardenhire simply is not the development manager we need. In 1982 you could see that players like Kent Hrbek, Tom Brunansky, and Gary Gaetti were going to be good hitters. I don't see the equivalent on the Twins roster today except for perhaps a very small glimpse of Oswaldo Arcia. I have been "preaching" for 3 years now that the Twins need to abandon the "Twins Way" and accelerate the movement of their minor league talent. They need to get the players to the major league level and develop them into major league players. They need to take their lumps. THey need to find the players that can play and the ones that cannot. It takes time, even with talent, to fully develop a winning team and the Twins have essentially wasted three years. Lastly, I don't think that the Twins ownership really cares. They get 2.5 million fans to the stadium paying very high ticket prices while fielding a essentially a AAA team of non-entities around the injured Joe Mauer. I was at game 162 in a $53 seat to watch Clete Thomas, Alex Pressley, Chris Herrman, Chris Parmalee, Eric Fryer, and Scott Diamond play some of the worst baseball I have ever seen. When Ryan Doumit, Trevor Plouffe, and Brian Dozier, all three at best marginal major league baseball players, are by far the best players you are putting in the lineup, ownership and management have completely failed the fans.

1. Not really. "Overpaying" relative to the mean does not mean much. In almost every type of economic events there is a diminishing marginal return. Because the Twins have been so cheap in most of these "categories" we would expect that their sparse utllization of free agent dollars to do much better. If we were "mean" spenders in these categories liek "trades" and "free agency", your statement would have been more impressive. 2. I don't disgree with you about the division titles, but most of that was an illusion. First, several of those titles were based on the geography of the league, not having a top record. Here is the data: 2002 Place in AL: 4th Games behind Wild Card: 5 2003 5th 5 2004 4th 6 2006 2nd -1 2009 5th 8 2010 3rd 1 Only in 2006 and 2010 did we have a team that had a top 3 record in the AL, and only once did we finish with a record better than the AL wild card team. Second, our playoff record exposes the fact. In the total of 6 playoff series, this team has won a total of 6 games and just one series back in 2002. They were swept the last the consecutive series, and outside of a 3-2 series win in 2002, they won only one game in the other three. The point is, the ownership of this team has let the fans down by not doing what it takes to create a winning team.

Obviously, the costs of a win over replacement is not on a linear scale and 18 wins above replacement is not much of a success. Remember, REPLACEMENT is not "average", and in fact is far, far below average. The Twins have spent $400 million or so to field a team far below average, much of that subsidized by their move to a new stadium that was financed by the tax payers. The truth of the matter is clear: the fans have not received much back from the Twins ownership who have only fielded a team that is good enough to line their pockets with taxpayer dollars.

This means that the Twins, over this 17 year period, averaged just 18.98 wins more than what a team full of replacement level (and minimum contracts) players would have done. Using the MLB minimum salary from 1996-2013, to fill the team with replacement players would have cost $133.075 million while the Twins spend $562.731 million on salaries. The net difference of $429.656 million represents $1.33 million spent per win above replacement. Based on this, the Twins should have just stayed in the Metrodome and not wasted the taxpayers money.

As far as future position, I have always thought that Mauer should move to the outfield, specifically RF. He would have a tremendous arm and I have to believe his baseball instincts would really be valuable there. He might not be the fastest guy out there, but at 6-6 he would have lots of range and his arm would reduce bases against. If Chris Parmalee, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel, and Josh Willingham were sent out into the outfield, often with comical results, there is almost no way possible for Joe Mauer to do any worse.

Although this does not have to do specifically with Mauer's concussion, baseball needs to outlaw the collision with the catcher at home plate. Since Pete Rose ruined Ray Fosse's career in a meaningless game, for some reason it is considered cool to run over the catcher at the plate. This causes injuries, and has been pushed down to lower and lower levels of baseball. Watching my 15 year old nephew get run over routinely at home plate is disgusting and not baseball. The same needs to be done with the reckless slides at second on double play balls. A legitimate slide is disruptive to the double play pivot enough. Any further contact needs to automatically cause the runner's at a force out base to be out.

And, the improvement in Dozier is just another example of letting things play out. Why designate him for assignment even when he was struggling? We need to let these guys get at bats at the major league level and let them sort themselves out. If one guy, lets say Chris Parmalee simply does not work out you move on to another. The point is that we do not want to be going through this process when the team is rebuilt. That is how the 87 team was built and how we should look going forward. Take the losses now. Find the winners. Shed the losers.

This points to one of the problems with the Twins way. They will not trade prospects. We miss out on maximizing the value of many of these prospects, particularly when many if not most of them will never be quality MLB players.

The Twins should drop Diamond from the starting rotation and give Anthony Swarzak a chance.

Did not mean to picky, but it is a good point. He did not pitch well in the first start. The opponents made very good contact. With respect to Anderlin Mejia, he is not a major league shortstop. He has very poor footwork and his arm is not strong, in fact he has a little bit of a lollipop arc to his throw. Levi Michaels is a much better shortstop. Mejia is also very slightly built and I doubt he will develop enough to advance much further to tell you the truth. You never know how a player will develop and he could build up enough skills to be a utility type guy, but with zero pop in his bat and no real position I do not seeit.

" Manuel Soliman made his first start in Ft. Myers in over a year" Not true. He made his first start last Monday, 6/17.

I forgot that Kennys was the DH in the game. But, I think that he is only a step above marginal prospect. He is big and powerful, but his swing is very long and I am not sure if he will be able to make consistent contact above the A+ level. He is also a DH prospect only with almost no mobility on the field. You never know though. I am glad I am not the one that makes decisions on these young guy's dreams. And, it is fun to watch them play.

Not really convinced that Aderlin Mejia is much of a prospect. There is no way he projects to a MLB level shortstop. He has very poor footwork in the field and a below average arm. At the plaer, he will never hit for power. I was at this game, and frankly, there isn't a single player that played in it other than Zach Jones that is even a marginal major league prospect.