mlhouse

We are not a competitive team so this is really not a problem.

2011 Cape Cod League Pitcher of the Year. Ranked #29 on MLB.com top 100. Fastball 6/7......this is a good pick.

My cousin is a big Texas AM football fan and he believes Stewart will sign for the slotted value of the 4th overall pick.

One thing I would like to see out of Rosario is more patience at the plate. He swings at a lot of bad pitches early in the count and if he does not adjust this he is not going to be as effective moving up the minor league ladder. On the other hand, I thought he was very good in the field. The most recent game I observed he made a very nice running catch in short right field, handled every ball very cleanly, and made two nice pivots on double plays that showed great footwork and very good arm strength. I have not seen Morales play in over two years at Ft Myers. WIth players like Morales I think the Twins should be very aggressive in moving him up. He is 23 years old but has been in the A-/A+ level for 5 years now. Either he can do it, or he cannot. Move him to AA now, and maybe even AAA by the end of the season. If he does well, then he is back on track for his career and probably a reasonable choice for the 40 man roster. If he cannot handle the higher level of competition, then the opposite choice is the obvious one to make. Maybe he can continue to plod up the minor leagues, with the Twins or some other organization. But, the time most likely has already passed for him.

No way the Twins pass on Gray if he falls to #4. I seriously doubt that happens. The Law Mock was some sort of idiosyncratic type of mock not based on any logic. The only possibility of Gray or Appel falling to the Twins is if somehow Stewart got in the mix with the top selection. As it is, I have long advocated a college arm with the #4, but after talking with my cousin who is a Texas A&M grad, he thinks the slotted bonus amount for #4 is enough to get Stewart signed. And, the fact that the Twins would be protected with a #5 pick next year helps mitigate any signability risk.

Since talking to my cousin who is very in tune with A&M football, I have come around on drafting Kohl Stewart. He said that the normal bonus slot of the 4th overall pick is probably more than adequate to get him out of his football commitment. If the college arms like Shipley were just a notch better they would be no-brainer picks, but I have come around to drafting Stewart's upside. WIth that in mind, this organization needs to continue to stock up its pitching staff. I would use the next three picks on college arms like Aaron Blair (Marshall) at @43, Carlos Salazar (Fresno St.) at @78, and AJ Vanegas (Stanford) at @110.

It is premature to make any claims about Buxton being the right choice, although he is playing well in Low-A. The benefits though of drafting a college pitcher like Gausman last year is that Buxton is about 4 years from even tasting the major league level and the college arm could have been in the rotation last season if we really wanted to fast track them. I really think that this year we need to go with a college starter, either the left hander Manaea or the right hander Bredan Shipley. Manaea has more upside but the injury issue really scares me given some of the problems we have had with Gibson and WImmer. I think Shipley could be a very good #2-3 starter and could be moved along quickly.

I think it should be either Manaea or Braden Shipley. I think Manaea has the higher upside. I have to admit the injury problems concern me a bit on him as we have been burned on them in the past. Shipley is a nice pitcher but does not project to be a top of the rotation guy. Kohl Stewart is intriguing, but probably expensive, and high school pitchers carry significant risk.

Went to the Miracle game Tuesday night. Here are some observations: 1. Matt Summers has a nice lively fastball that sits between 91-93, touched 94 by the Hammonds field radar gun. His secondary pitches are average. But, his consistency melted in five innings and he certainly projects as a reliever and the Twins would be smart to move him to the bullpen fulltime as soon as possible. And, from there he should be rushed to the major league level to either swim, or sink and make way for some of the arms following him. 2. Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano need to work on patience at the plate. Rosario in particular I was disappointed in because he swung at some bad pitches early in the count (twice on the first pitch) and made easy outs. 3. On the other hand, I was impressed with Rosario in the field. He made an amazing running catch in short right field, handled a couple of pretty good plays at second, and made two very strong pivots on double plays. 4. Matt Koch had a decent looking swing. He made good contact in every at bat. 5. Was not impressed with Levi Michael, even though I think he ended up with 2 hits. The boot he made in the field was a routine ground ball and was a very costly error. 5. Of the players I saw, only Sano, Rosario, Vargas, Koch, and Summers warrant advancement to AA. But they are all young guys and I hope the best for all of them. The weather was beautiful, as perfect of a night as you can have, and it was Tuesday 2-1......and it was cool to see Molitor in the Miracle dougout wearing #4. My guess is he could have been put in the lineup and been the best player on the field.

I think Shipley will be the pick and I agree with you that the fastball-changeup mix will be what interests the Twins. I think they will see Manaea as a higher upside player, but they have been burned now with injured college arms that they will pass on him. The Georgia outfielders are intriguing, but the would prefer Meadows and I see a little bit of Joe Benson in him myself.

The reason he is in the lineup TODAY is so he does not make the same mistakes two years from now when it matters. One problem with a young player is that the problems at the plate often needlessly cause problems in the field. WE NEED PATIENCE WITH THESE YOUNG PLAYERS. PATIENCE. PATIENCE. PATIENCE. They need to be in the game every day. Their mistakes need to be corrected but in a way that makes them feel that they can improve upon them. I like Gardenhire as a person. But, he is not the manager for a rebuilding team.

I was too. Not going to say I was totally wrong because the need for pitching, particularly pitching we can bring along quickly, is still there. But, Buxton's play has certainly made up for that.

THe fantasy scenario is for Appel to fall to the Twins. I think the chances of Appel falling are a little greater than the 5% cited above because the top couple of teams just might prefer to pass on the financial demands. I would put the probability more in the range of 25%, but even with that would the Twins be the team to pull the trigger on the financial commitment? I think they would be fools to pass on Appel even with a $5 million trigger. Look at it this way. The probability of Appel being a better pitcher than the 4th-5h veteran starters we have been signing is very significant. Then, compare the cost of that prorated $5 million over 2-4 years and you see that this is the right financial move. If Appel is not there, then I think the left hander Manaea needs to be the pick. I don't think he projects to be a top of the rotation guy, but he could be a very good left handed 2-3 starter, and if he can get his slider moving again have some upside over that. I would pass on the Stewart because I think he will have financial leverage and he is just too far away, and the HS outfielders would just saturate the system.

Good reporting on the Cedar Rapids game Seth!

Seriously? Jim Thome? How does Thome help your team rebuild? Every at bat and every inning for the 2013 season needs to be focused on rebuilding the team, not scratching out meaningless wins today. This should have been the focus for 2012 too, which we virtually wasted. Instead of Thome getting major league plate appearances, give them to Joe Benson. Benson is 25 years old this month. If he can't hit major league pitching now, he never will be able to. Keep him on the roster as the 4th or 5th OF, give him at least 150 plate appearances in the first 81 games and see what he can do over an extended course of real major league competition. If Benson fails, he fails, and we find a replacement just as Jim Eisenreich failed initially for the Twins. We found out that he could not handle the pressure in his home state and then found a replacement, Kirby Puckett. The lesson is that if the Twins would have sent Eisenreich back down to the minors in 1982 for more seasoning he would have still been standing in Puckett's way in 1984. But if Benson plays well, then there is something to build on going forward. It is win-win all the way.

Infielders (6): Justin Morneau, Trevor Plouffe, Jamey Carroll, Pedro Florimon, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar Parmalee, Mauer, and Doumit can all play 1B behind Morneau. Carroll, Esocbar and Dozier can all play utility IF. Outfielders (4): Josh Willingham, Chris Parmelee, Aaron Hicks, Joe Benson There is no reason to wait on Aaron Hicks. And, likewise Joe Benson who will be 25 years old before the season starts. Give Benson a shot as the 4th OF at the major league level. If Benson falters, then recall Mastroianni. Catchers (2): Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit No reason to have Butera on the roster at all. Mauer can get significant rest from catching with Doumit behind the plate either with a scheduled day off or playing 1B. This allows the team to carry an extra IF. Starting Pitchers (5): Scott Diamond, Kevin Correia, Vance Worley, Mike Pelfrey(IR), Liam Hendriks, Kyle Gibson Even on an innings restriction Gibson must be in the rotation. When Pelfrey comes back from DL, Hendriks is odd man out. Relief Pitchers (8): Glen Perkins, Jared Burton, Brian Duensing, Alex Burnett, Casey Fien, Josh Roenicke, Tyler Robertson, Cole DeVries

He is one guy that I am willing to be patient on. I would like to see him start in AA and then see what happens.

One reason for the drop in extra base hits last year was the fact he only played in 100 games. IN 449 total plate appearances he had 35 doubles, 4 triples, and 13 homre runs. If you look at that in a 600 plate appearance terms, that projects to 46 doubles and 17 home runs. If he can continue to develop as a second baseman and his hitting stays on this path he could easily be considered the TOP prospect in our system.

And, if they are overmatched, they are overmatched. Again, look back to a historical precedent and the 1982 Twins. When they broke camp that year, they inserted Lenny Faedo as their starting shortstop. He was a former first round draft pick and was just 22 years old. Guess what? He wasn't good enough so during the rebuilding process they had to find someone else that was, And, that meant that in 1983 they brought up a 21 year old Greg Gagne and installed him as their starter in 1985. True evaluation is critical in the rebuild process. Is it a case of being overmatched? Is it a case of further development? We are not committed to Brian Dozier at all, but by bringing him up NOW we can make some true observations, rather than waiting another year or more into the future. And, I will reiterate. This team needs to commit to the concept of developing players at the major league level. We already have had two consecutive 95+ loss season, and if we continue on the one step at a time minor league development process we are going to have several more. It worked in 1982, as the young players they essentially plugged into that lineup became the nucleaus of two World Series teams. Some of the players worked, some of them did not. But, again, THE CRITICAL FACTOR WAS that by the time these players all hit their peak performance we had dumped all of the failures and had an opportunity to find replacements, such as the aforementioned Gagne, and Kirby Puckett who replaced Jimmy Eisenreich when he could not handle the majors. Lenny Faedo could not hit, and after 1984 he never had another major league at bat. Brian Dozier may be following hte same path, but we NEED TO FIND OUT, just as we found out about Faedo.

Again, I am going to bring up my central thesis: WHO CARES IF HE STRUGGLED. We were a 95 loss team without any other real alternatives. Let a guy like Dozier struggle at the major league level. Let him work out his problems and errors. Use a coaching staff and manager that will work with him to improve. To quote Hilary Clinton, what difference does it make. Sure, he was not "ready". Very few major league players are in their first year of exposure to that level. But, then, the guy is 26 years old. What is the Twins real plan with him? Bring him up when he is 30? Rebuilding takes patience. It takes dealing with losses. I question if the current Twins leadership really knows what htey are doing at times because they cannot seem to understand where this team stands.

Aaron Hicks must be the starting CF and Joe Benson the 4th OF. Kyle Gibson must be in the starting rotation, even if he is on innings restriction. For Benson and Gibson, the clock is ticking. Gibson is 25 and Benson will turn 25 in May. If they are not able to establish themselves now, they probably never will. For Hicks, it is the chance to develop at the major league level, and for a player with his skills I think that is the best approach. He has already spent five years in the minors, he has all of the physical tools, let him take the last step in development at the major league level. THiS IS A REBUILDING YEAR. Wins-losses, who cares. This should all be about player development. If our manager does not have the patience or skills to work with young players, then we simply need a new manager. It is that simple, and frankly, we have already wasted two years of 95+ losses that should have been dedicated to establishing a new core group of young players.

Thought I would include my own top fifteen (parens is Seth's ranking) 1. Byron Buxton (2) He probably was the real #1 player in last year's draft and has at least 2 max tools. If he develops his mid-level power potential and some pitch selectivity someday we will have an all-star CF in Minnesota. 2. Miguel Sano (1) Huge power potential, but some holes in his game drops him to the #2 slot behind Buxton. He needs to reduce his 33% strikeout rate as he moves up to higher levels of competition. His cooling off after a torrid start may have revealed something, but he should also be able to make adjustments. 3. Aaron Hicks (5) I move him ahead of Arcia because I think he is much more likely to contribute at the major league level even if his upside is not as great. 4. Orlando Arcia (3) As a hitter, he could have a higher upside than the three solid prospects above him. 5. Alex Meyer (4) Nice power pitching prospect that the Twins desperately need. He can miss bats and at A level had reasonable control. Can he maintain a high strikeout level as he advances up the minors will define his upside potential. He just turned 23, so the Twins need to rush develop him the the majors. 6. JT Berrios (8) One of the most solid starts for a high drafted high school pitcher in a long time. For a young pitcher to have the BB/K ratio that he had,even though it was only rookie ball, was incredible. He has the stuff and the Twins can take their time with him. 7. Eddie Rosario (7) If he can actually develop as a 2B he might have to be considered to be the #1 prospect in the minors because infielders simply do not hit like he does. In Rookie ball he hit 21 home runs, but in the bigger A park that power shifted more to a doubles type hitter. In just 429 PAs he hit 32 doubles, 4 triples, and 12 home runs in a year he had an injury which sidelined him. Adjusting these totals for 600 PAs projects to 45 doubles, 6 triples and 17 HRs. If he can improve slighlty on his OBP of .345 he could become a solid #2 hitter. 8. Kyle Gibson (6) The injury problem really has cut into his upside. Projected as a #2 type starter, I was really impressed watching him in Ft. Myers because of his ability to get ground balls. But, with his second major arm injury of his career, he is 25 years old and has only pitched 276 innings of minor league ball. Any setback to his career effectively removes him as a premium prospect, and the arm injury has reduced his upside to a #3/4 guy you probably cannot count on to eat many innings. 9. Trevor May (9) This is totally based on upside. I don't know if the guy will be able to generate enough control to be an effective major league pitcher. He became available in trade because moving from A to AA ball, his K rate dropped from 12+/9 to 9.08 while his BB/9 increased to 4.69/9, and he gave up 22 HR in 149.2 innings. That is a step back and he will have to return to form to stay in the top 10. 10. Luke Bard (20) Twins 3rd selection, #42 overall, in the 2012 draft. He has the stuff but has been a reliever. This ranking is based more on his draft position than the 7 innings he pitched in the minors 11. Mason Melotakis (22) Hard throwing reliever that I think needs to move quickly up the minors. 12. Max Kepler (10) Still a long ways to go, but he isnt far from Europe. Lots of natural potential. 13. Kenny Vargas (12) Nice power potential, but most likely a DH only player. 14. Travis Harrison (14) A 3B prospect with upside, the Twins can be patient. 15. BJ Hermsen (18) Probably a limited player like Liam Hendricks or Cole Devries, but he has to rank somewhere because of output. HE gets it done and there are lots of major league pitchers who have been succesful with his type of tools.

The reason why rebuilds need to happen sooner rather than later is that it does take time to fill in all of the holes. Look at the Twins World Series rebuild that began, essentially, in 1982. It took 5 years to completely rebuild. THe reason for this is that some of the prospects and other additions fail: like closer Ron Davis and you then have to find another plug. We are already 2 years behind in the rebuild mode. Lets get the Aaron Hicks and Kyle Gibson's on the roster and see what we got.

Very good prospect, particularly if he can grow into a 2nd baseman. I expect the slugging percentage to decline, but I want to see the OBP go up the .370 range. Rosario projects to be a top of the order hitter and the ability to be more selective needs to be developed.

The January draft was a very limited draft. Most of the "talent" was selected in the June-Regular phase of the draft. The Twins selected Bryan Oelkers 4th overall in the June-Regular, one spot ahead of the Mets who selected someone named Dwight Gooden.