mlhouse

It will, but in some ways 2016 was equivalent to the 1982 Twins season. THe only difference is that the 103 loss season is the 5th out of 6 years of 90+ loss seasons. The rebuilding that happened in 2016 should have started sooner. Here is an example of the problems the Twins management have had. Adam Brett Walker. Now I get it, Walker's problem with making consistent contact in the minor leagues probably indicates that he was never going to be a major league hitter, and a guy with a 33% minor league strikeout rate isn't likely to get better at the major league level. But then, his OBP rate wasn't terrible. He had tremendous power, hitting 25 or more home runs in each of his full professional seasons. His career OPS was almost .800 and he had 5 home runs and a .800+ OPS in 2015 Fall Instructional league. Reasonable speed and probably would have been an adequate corner outfielder. Again, I get the negatives probably far outweigh the positives. But the Twins never gave him a chance, not even a September call up. Before you go on about roster spaces and such, we had roster space and September at bats for Logan Schafer, a guy who hit 32 total minor league home runs in 2444 PA. We had a roster spot for Darin Mastrioanni, a 30 year below replacement level player who had 23 home runs in 3801 minor league PAs. Yet, we didn't extend a September call up to a guy we sent to the Arizona Fall League the year before, who played well at every level of his professional career in the Twins minor league system, and had an unknown upside at the MLB level. That is what has been wrong with this organization for the past 6 years.

As I have pointed out in this forum over and over again, the reason why the Twins have not even come close to following the 1987 Twins road map is that they have played it too safe and too conservative. From a low point in 1982, the Twins went from a 100+ loss team to World Series Champs in 1987, and repeated with the same core players in 1991. As this article points out, the difference between the 1983-1986 teams, and the 1991 from the 1988-1990 temas, was some fine tuning. It takes time to be able to be able to evaluate your prospects at the MLB level. Because some of the prospects, even the highest rated ones, fail for one reason or the other the process is completely dynamic. But the modern Twins management approach has been too conservative. The 1982 team moved players like Hrbek and Laudner from A+ ball directly to the major leagues. College level prospects like Gaetti and Viola jumped levels in the minors and then moved to the Twins lineup from basically AA ball. Not all of the prospects worked out. Jimmy Eisenreich didn't work out because of illness. Brad Havens looked like the best pitching prospect in 1982, but injuries inhibited his effectiveness. Other players, like Lenny Faedo, just were not good enough, But, by moving these guys up quickly, Eisenreich from A- ball at 23 years old, Faedo as basically a 21 year old AA player (who jumped from RK to AA as a 19 year old player) we were able to find their replacements quickly. The current Twins management would have moved the 19 year old Faedo, their 1978 first round pick, one level per year and then bounced him back and forth between MLB and AAA. He would not have even got a September call up until he would have been 24 years old and even considered for a starting position until the next season, which would have been 1985. Then a year or two of evaluating, and the year would have been 1987. But, fortunately for the Twins of that era, they moved Faedo in quickly. FOund he could not play, and by 1985 23 year old Greg Gagne was the starting shortstop and in 1987 he had 3 full years of MLB experience. Kirby Puckett emerged in 1984. The other players: Brunansky, Hrbek, Gaetti, Viola, etc improved and the missing pieces, like veteran Bert Blyleven were added as needed once the team built.

"But this feels like skipping a step. Chargois still only has 25 major-league appearances. Throwing him into the fire so quickly could prove detrimental. Why not take it a bit slower and let him work his way up?" Because they could have done that ALL SEASON in 2016, but decided they preferred mediocrity over the unknown. I am sure that wiull be the plan for 2017. Use Chargois in a set up role and Kintzler as the closer. Of course, what value using a 33 year old closer will have over the future is debatable and you really cannot tell how a guy is going to hadle the closer role until, well, you make him the closer. Everything else is just simulation to a degree. One of the problems with the Twins is that they seem to pretend that some of these guys are 19 year olds. JT CHargois will be 26 years old before the start of the 2017 season. How much more "seasoning" does he need before he is going to contribute? I realize that injuries have delayed his progression through the minors, but there comes a time thta a "prospect" needs to either sink or swim.

I doubt you read those comments from me. This "rebuild" is so far from being done.

Help them win 61 games instead of 59? Right now this is a total rebuild. There aint no "helping". If the Twins would have recognized this 3 or 4 years ago it might be different now. But they stubbornly clung to the "lets push a mediocre product" out on the field, pretended they could continue the conservative minor league promotion system, and have lost 90+ games 5 out of the last 6 years (with the 2015 season remaining a total fluke), have more losing to do, and despite their methodical minor league approach have young guys at the major league level lacking fundamentals. Instead of continuing these errors, the time to totally commit to rebuild is now. This past season was the start and hopefully equivalent to the 1982 season. Get the rest of the prospects up now or sooner rather than later and see what happens.

1. We already have done the "acquire" the players and that has been a disaster. IT put the development timeframe completely off because the relatively expensive players they signed: Hughes, Nolanso, and Santana were put in with a bunch of mediocrities and/or developing players that are not effective yet. Bad move and should not be repeated. 2. The 1985 move to get Blyleven certainly was a move by a competitive team. The Twins had competed in 1984 and they had been radically improving from 1982 - 1984. 3. I would say essentially the same about 1991. While they were in last place, the entire core of the team was present. This wasn't a team filled with unproven rookies. Hrbek, Puckett, Harper, Gagne, Gladden, Mack, Larkin, Bush, Tapani, Aguilera, and others were on the 1990 team which had a bad year. Scott Erickson made his debut that year and Chuck Knoblauch would in 1991. Adding Morris was a good move to add to that group and probably was enough to get them over the edge. 4. So, it is obvious that the best move this season and perhaps the next is to get the young players up and player. Lets call the 2016 season equivalent to the 1982 season. Let some growth happen in 2017 and perhaps 2018. THen see were you need to add pieces. 5. LOL at your claims I am calling the Twins prospects busts. The problem is that it takes time to develop and evaluate prospects. The Twins approach has been too methodical and that is why we have lost 90+ games 5 out of the last six years, with the 6th year being a 100+ loss season, and there are at least one if not two expected losing seasons to go. 6. And, as I have stated in other responses, the sad thing about the Twins methodical approach is that even as they move their prospects slowly one level at a time at best, they still arrive at the major league level unprepared and lacking in fundamentals. That is a huge indictment against the management of the organization.

Nope. The Twins need to follow a standard course in their rebuilding of their pitching staff. Two steps. First, get their young prospects up and throwing at teh MLB level. Weed out the bad and develop the good. Second, use their existing assets to acquire pitching prospects. When the team has played all of their chips and hopefully have a competitive team, they can fill their holes with veteran acquisitions. Blyleven was the guy (added in 1985) that helped fill otu the rotation in 1987. Morris was the guy in 1991.

Questions that have been answered. 1. The Twins strategy of drafting college relievers and turning them into starters has been a huge failure. 2. The Twins do not have the right management, both on-field and front office, in place to rebuild the team. 3. Although the Twins are "patient" and methodical with their prospects, this does not translate into the minor league system developing the prospects, and despite this conservative approach Twins players are arriving at the major league level lacking fundamentals. These are really bad answers for a team that has lost more than 90 games 5 out of the past 6 seasons.

Of course it does. WHile I looked at the hitters, this weird preference for mediocrity at best is even more prevalent with the pitching staff. What the Twins management seemingly refuses to understand is that you need to play the players that will make mistakes, errors, and some bad play in order to develop it. They have proven they have zero patience with their young players. WHile, if the team was winning 90 games that might be a reasonable position. But this team is losing 90+ games and it aint because we are only playing young players. We are just playing BAD players. As I have stated above, and in other posts in this forum, the Twins MUST get a manager and coaching staff that can work with and develop the young players. Gardenhire clearly could not but they stuck with him losing 90+ game four seasons in a row. I think it is clear that Molitor also does not have the patience to work with the young players as exhibited by the yo-yoing of our prospects up and down. WHen JT Chargois was first called up to the big leagues he was given exactly one chance, did not do well, and then was sent back down. HE has already proven he can get minor league hitters out. But the Twins just will not work with their prospects to get them able to have major league success. If you look at the roster, the proof is in the pudding. Since the team has went 63-99 under Gardenhire in 2011, losing 96, 96, and 92 games following that season, they have exactly two positional player that came up through their minor league system, Brian Dozier and Trevor Ploufe and one pitcher, Kyle Gibson (with Glen Perkins probably being done). That isn't much to account for such a long period of ineptitude.

One of the worst jobs of development they have done is with Jorge Polanco. In 2014 the young 20 year old kid has a .754 OPS in A+ and AA ball, while being -4.7 years below the AA average. He is called up for a few games with the Twins, hits .333 with a 1.333 OPS (albeit in limited 8 PA's) so the 92 loss team does the logical thing, send him back down to the minors. In 2015, the 21 year old kid has a .725 OPS between AA and AAA while being 6 years younger than AAA average and hits 300 in a limited stretch with the Twins. Twins, still not interested. Finally in 2016 the team that is trending for 100 losses waits 75 games before they bring him up to play. WHat more did they think he was going to show in the minors? When he came up the first time they should have just handed him a job and let him develop into it. What, would we have lost 94 games instead of 92?

The fact is this team is probably hopeless going forward with the same management team. Huge changes need to be made in how they develop their young talent and they need to have a manager that is willing to work with those young players. Looking back, the team has consistently sabatoged its rebuilding by relying on what is at best mediocrity. They seem to prefer to sign some other teams castoffs than giving their own prospects chances. Look at this list: Logan Schafer Shane Robinson Eric Fryer Doug Bernier Chris Colabello Kendrys Morales Sam Fuld Ryan Doumit Clete Thomas Jamey Carroll Giving at bats to these guys served no purpose except to delay the development of players that could help in the long run.

"Earning" each promotion is a concept that is outdated for the condition of this team. That is why Garver is already 25 and does not have a single major league AB. Winning is not even something that is important right now. Evaluation and development are. What the Twins need to do at all levels of management is say, screw it. We are going to lose 100 games this season and perhaps 100 more next season. BUT, from these ashes we are going to develop a competitive team. What they need to do at the management level of the major league team is bring in a guy that can work with and develop these players. It is obvious that we have not had that type of management with the Twins. One reason why this is obvious is how difficult it is for even the TOP prospects of this team to move up to the major league level with any type of success. We had the #1 overall prospect in major league baseball in Byron Buxton, and so far in 326 ABs at the major league level he is hitting .199. His ..567 OPS is pathetic. Send him back to AAA and he is a .956 OPS guy. We know that young guys will struggle but some of these struggles have been totally unexpected, at least in magnitude (did you think Buxton would be a sub-.200 hitter?????). If you don't liek the Buxton example, what about Berrios or Chargois? I think the evidence suggests that there might be something wrong with how the Twins staff works with and prepares these young players. And this must be remedied.

I think that is part of the issue. The Twins are so reluctant to take risks with their prospects taht they are more willing to have them linger in the minor leagues (and extremely successful at those levels) than to have them struggle at the major league level. This risk adversness is demonstrated by both the methodical way they advance minor league prospects and how quickly they decide to send a prospect back to the minor at any sight of struggle. I also think that the Twins have a weird idea about competitiveness too, especially for a team that has lost more than 90 games five out of the past six seasons. Their upper management/ownerhship believes if we just plug a Jamey Carroll or a Shane Robinson that will get us to a level of competitiveness acceptable to the fans. Of course, these players were not good enough to create that competitiveness so the team loses both ways. I have pointed out, many times in these forums, that one aspect of rebuilding a baseball team is time. And one thing you need to do during rebuilding time is FAIL. Obviously, no team is perfect. But you have to get the players up quickly to make that determination. I use the 1982 rebuilding as the model, and in 1982 the best Twins prospects at SS was Lenny Faedo and in CF Jim Eisenreich. Faedo was a 22 year old in 1982 with very limited minor league experience. He was a first round pick out of high school in 1978 and played in Elizabethton Rookie league as a 18 year old. The next season, the Twins moved him up to AA. He played one full season and part of the next, and was a late season call up by the Twins in 1980. AS a 21 year old he played most of the year in AAA and in 1982 he was the starting SS for the TWins. Eisenreich was a 16th round pick in 1980 out of St Cloud St. Played Rookie and A- ball in 1980, then a full season of A- in 1981. In 1982 he jumped directly from low A to starting CF for the Twins as 23 year old with just 901 PA of minor league experience. Could you imagine the current Twins management doing this? But here is the point. Eisenreich and Faedo were failed prospects (at least for the Twins). If they would have waited until they had more minor league experience, conservatively advancing them one level at a time, their failure would have just occured several years later and pushed back were teh team could field more solid players like Greg Gagne and Kirby Puckett. The point made about some of the more mid-level prospects is a good one. NOW is the time to see if Jason Wheeler, Mitch Garver, and others like them can play at the MLB level. They have proven they can pitch or hit in the minors. More "seasoning" isn't going to improve their skills. There isn't a plethora of more talented players ahead of them. And, in Wheeler and Garver's case, they are already 25 years old. Why wait? Why not take the chance, lose the games in a 100 loss year without any hope, and get solid evauluations on these players? The real story is that this approach should have happened 5 years ago. But it didn't. And the sad fact is that there is good liklihood of more losing down the road.

And Centeno is an example of another weird idiosyncrasy of this organization. We seem to prefer other teams cast offs to developing our own prospects. WHile sometimes these waiver wire acquisitions make sense, a guy like RObbie Grossman is the type of castoff that has some talent but needed more opportunity, the stream of Jordan Schaefers, Shane Robinsons, Doug Berniers, Eric Fryers, Sam Fulds, Chris Colabellos, Clete Thomass, and Jamey Carrols seems to keep this team peddling in low level, "proven" replacement level play. And that list of players doesnt even address the ptiching staff, which would rather put waiver wire guys on the mound than their prized prospects. I get it. They just refuse to hire a management team that has the patience to play and lose with the young guys while developing them into major league players at the major league level. Sticking all of those years with Gardenhire pretty much is evidence to that. But these are the choices that have kept this team locked into 90+ loss seasons. ' While the argument might get old, the 1981-82 rebuidlign should be the model. Players like Hrbek, Laudner, Viola, and Gaetti were brought up to the major leagues with very little minor league experience. Hrbek's highest minor league level was A+ in 1981 when he a September call up and handed the starting job in 1982. Using the Twins approach of today would have meant that Hrbek would have still been in the minors in 1984 when he finished 2nd in the AL MVP balloting. WHat Twins management did in 1982 was commit to the young prospects. They knew they would lose lots of games, 102 of them in 1982, but they developed the core of the 1987 and 1991 World Series champs from that roster. Some of the prospects, like Brad Havens, Dave Engle,Eisenreich and Lenny Faedo did not work out. But while the team was develping this gave them time to find alternatives, like Kirby Puckett and Greg Gagne.

Whatever. Based on your logic every team in major league baseball is the same. But they aren't. A team that has lost more than 90 games 5 out of the past 6 years should have a different way of developing minor league prospects than other teams. And, the question that a team that is in such a rebuilding "phase" needs to ask the question about 25 year old prospects as quickly as possible: can they hit or can they pitch in the major leagues. As I stated (and you obviously did not comprehend), it would be different if there were established players or better prospects ahead of Garver. If we had a good, young catcher established at the MLB level Garver would be a secondary prospect at best. But we don't. And, while the acquisition of John Ryan Murphy at the beginning of the season may have slipped Garver down to the #2 guy in line, durign the course of the season Garver has passed him by. What value do the Twins get while playing Kurt Suzuki, a 32 year old journeyman or Juan Centeno, a 26 year old discard from another team? Lets get our prospects up to the MLB level and let their play be evaluated. Don't yo-yo them around. Take their mistakes when they happen and lose the games now. Maybe Garver isn't the guy, but we clearly do not know that. Lets find out and take the losses this year (and what very clearly appears to be next year too).

Do we know if Mitch Garver can hit major league pitching? The answer, obviously, is no, we do not know. And, with that answer shows that the Twins have mishandled Mitch Garver. Garver isn't a 20 year old kid being "rushed" to the big leagues. He is 25 years old already. Why wait until the guy is 26-27 years old before we get him up to the big leagues. It might be different if a) the Twins had quality catching prospects ahead of him or the team has been playing for something these past 5 years. Especially in this situation it is important to "rush" him to the majors as soon as possible. THe reason for this is that the Twins need to be able to evaluate players as quickly as possible. If we wait for Garver the "Twins Way" and let him play a full year at AAA, he will be a 27 year old rookie before we even start to evaluate.

This is part of the rebuilding process. Some prospects make it and even highly touted ones will not. IT takes time to figure this out and that is the reason why you "rush" prospects. YOu get the player in, evaluate them against real MLB pitching, and see if they can play or not. If they can, that is one spot you have "rebuilt". If they don't, then you move in a replacement. In 1982 the center fielder for the Twins was Jim Eisenreich. Unfortunately he did not work out for the Twins. In 1984 they found his replacement. Eisenreich went from A to MLB. If they would have used the current Twins approach he would not have made the majors until 1984 and Puckett's appearance might have been similarly delayed. But, I don't think Buxton is a total write off. There is something unusual about this situation. I think that some of it is mechanical so hopefully that can be fixed. I also think some of it is physical with the injuries hurting his approach to the game. But usually players with his level of success don't struggle this badly. And, if he is a write off, the Twins have other options that they can try to plug in.

Rotate Polanco between 2B, 3B, and SS. I think you can enhance his value if you can get him some OF reps, but we already have a lot of young guys out there I would rather play everyday. I would play him at 2B if they keep Dozier. When he plays eitehr 2B or 3B they can move Dozier or Sano to DH respectively. Polanco would play 75% of the games and you can manuever his off day to coincide with any platoon matchups you want. If they move Dozier either at deadline or offseason then obviously Polanco is the everyday 2B.

You could very easily improve this study by findng an index WAR value for each pick in the first round, or the whole draft for that matter, and then comparing the teams drafted results to that index. You can also take into account time from draft pick by using a cumulative WAR to date index for each of the years. So, in 2008 the Twins drafted Aaron Hicks with the 14th pick. The average MLB 14th pick 8 years out has an average WAR of X. Hicks has a WAR of Y. The ratio of X to Y would demonstrate how well the GM did to date. One would be average.

Terry Ryan had a very good talent of finding marginal talent in the scrap heap of the league.

The time was weeks ago. Berrios and Chargois are no brainers. So is Hildenberger to tell you the truth because he is already 25 years old. Polanco is a no-brainer but you need to have a plan on how to play him. I would use him as a utility guy that plays almost every day. His future is 2B, but give him time at SS and 3B too. That experience might pay dividends down the road. Mitch Garver needs to be brought up right now. Make whatever roster moves need to be done and install him as the starting catcher. Like Hildenberger, he is already 25 years old. Bringing him up aint rushing anything. At the same time, I would bring up Stuart Turner. He might not be able to hit much but his defense should be more than adequate as the backup catcher. I would play Garver 2/3 of the time as the catcher and give him games as the DH if he is hitting and play Turner the remainder of the games. Let these guys play and get experience at the big league level. We might not win a game the rest of the year, but what is the big deal. Why continue to lose playing replacement level journeymen and delay the rebuilding process. Then, next season, a total committment needs to be made to youth like the Twins did in 1982. We might lose another 100 games but if we can get these guys the expereince in the ML lineup they might develop like the 87 Twins squad. Takes time, but the time is now.

The need to go outside the organization for the GM is about the most obvious answer to a question out there. If this were Jeopardy it would be a $100 question. The entire organization needs to be revamped because the incumbents, led by Terry Ryan, are not equipped to rebuild a baseball franchise. We need a GM and maybe a manager that can work with and develop young players. I don't know if we have people in the management structure up and down the minors and major leagues that can do that because they have all been ingrained in the very conservative approach that Ryan had. This team is on a a 58-104 record pace yet we only have one pitcher under the age of 28 in our starting rotation, Of the remaining pitchers, 3 are marginal prospects 25/26 years of age (Rodgers, Mays, Tonkin), two are 27 (Pressley, Ramirez), and two journeymen over the age of 30. But we leave Berrios, JT Chargois, and Hildenberger in the minor leagues. HOw much worse can they be? And the answer to that unasked question is why Terry Ryan is out of a job.

The problem with Terry Ryan is that the type of team he was pretty succesful being the GM of is different than this team. Ryan GMed a marginal playoff team on a limited budget. That meant you built around the young talent that the Twins had with "money-ball" type of role players on cheap contracts. You were patient with the young prospects and moved them up slowly. That is why the rebuilding Twins, a team that has lost or is going to lose 90 or more games 5 out of the last six seasons does not solve its pitching problems by signing marginal starters like Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolansco, and Ervin Santana to mid-level, multi-year free agent contracts. Maybe that would have improved the 2001-2010 Minnesota Twins substantially, but not this group. It was wasted money. We need a front office and on the field management team that can work with and develop young talent. That talent is going to make mistakes. They are going to perform poorly in many cases. We are going to recognize that we will lose ball games. But those are the steps we need to take to get back to competitive baseball. This has been obvious for 5 years now.

RIght now is the most important time to get mid-level prospects like Hildenberger up to the big leagues. He is 25. He has averaged more than 1 strikeout/inning. His minor league ERA is under 2. What more does he have to prove moving up one level at a time. Get him up to the major leagues. Give him some setup situations. If he does well in that, give him some save situations. IF he doesn't do well, keep trying him. Then move him to long relief. If he fails at that, then we know he isn't a prospect at all.\ Rebuilding baseball teams need to be dynamic in throwing their guys against the wall. Some of them will stick, and others will crumble. But keeping them in the minors just makes the rebuild longer, and longer, and longer.

Yeah with that type of ERA and success, Hildenberger only has about 14 more years of minor league service before the Twins will give him a chance.