Jim H

Another good article with interesting speculation. I think that Revere is the more likely of the 2 to be traded before the start of the season. While I doubt if Hicks is ready to play in the majors, Mastroianni could be used as a placeholder. It is certainly possible that some team could value Revere as highly as Span, meaning he could yield a high end pitching prospect or a pretty accomplished big league starter. Trading Morneau is harder. There is no bat remotely ready to replace him or move Parmelee to first. Guessing his trade value is also hard. His combination of high salary, one year to free agency and injury history make me think that his trade value is likely lower than Revere. Trading him for a back of rotation pitcher makes little sense. Getting a very high end prospect seems unlikely. Assuming that Ryan believes that there is some reasonable chance of contending in 2013, I doubt if either one gets traded unless the return is pretty spectacular.

I think the signings to this point reflect 2 things. Many teams aren't interested in long term committments. Too many of those don't work out that well, and unless you are the Yankees or a few other teams, it can be pretty hard to work around a lot of money tied up in useless talent. A 2nd part of that is that some of the perceived top talent might be asking for a lot more than most teams are willing to pay. Some of those talents might have to readjust their asking price. Or perhaps as you suggest, some team will decide to overpay. In any case, part of the Twins problem is that they need more than one free agent pitcher. If you only need one, you target a couple of guys, the one that comes closest to what you are willing to pay, go for it. When you need 3 or 4 guys, like the Twins do, it is a bit harder to follow that approach.

I think that the oft repeated refrain that there is no pitching in the Twins system, is overstating the case. Pitching, even starting pitching, can move quickly through the system. There are several interesting guys beyond those you mentioned. I think it is a bit early to be sure that Hermsen can't add both velocity and "stuff" to his toolbox. Salcedo and some of the more recent draftees and international signing have some promise.

I don't believe Mack was any kind of clubhouse cancer. He may of been sort of a high maintainence kind of guy. I remember a comment by Tom Kelly or perhaps it was some other Twins offical. When Mack signed with the Japanese team, it was suggested Mack better take the Twins hitting coach with him if he expected to have any success after he left the Twins. I also agree that he was very good with the Twins. He could hit and was actually good enough defensively to be part of the reason Puckett moved to right field.

I think there is a fair chance Meyer dominates at AA and gets to AAA in 2013. Garza dominated at those levels throwing nothing but fastballs. That was actually a point of contention. Even if he does, I still don't think we see Meyer in the majors until 2014. The Twins are going to have a hard time pushing a kid that young close to 200 innings. Or even 180. I suspect that it would take a special situation to see him with the Twins in 2013.

I don't really agree with any of this. Revere value may be as high as it going to get, but I doubt it. He has always shown an ability to hit. I believe he can contend for batting titles and if he does his value goes up, big time. Nothing about Hicks' year at AA suggest that he is close to ready to play in the majors. I suspect he will be very good when he is ready, but letting him struggle in the majors right now is unlikely to do him much good. Finally, just because Buxton might be ready by 2016 is no reason to put Hicks in the majors now. They could play side by side, Hicks might be more tradeable with a lower salary, and just because Buxton might replace Hicks that soon is no good reason to let Hicks struggle in the majors if he is not ready.

Just because somebody says the Twins are shopping Morneau does not make it so. I wouldn't be surprised, however, if his name might of come up in talks between the 2 teams. I think the Twins would have to be kind of blown away to deal Morneau at this time. It would clearly signal a rebuilding point of view, which I not sure the Twins are really at. Also, since there is no one clearly ready to replace his bat, it would likely force the Twins to go after a free agent to replace the bat, at least until some prospects are ready. That would likely mitigate the value of the return in the trade, to some degree. My thought would be that the Twins would have to get a very high end pitching prospect to actually trade Morneau at this time. That doesn't seem very likely.

My guess is that the Twins have somewhere around $25 mill. to spent on pitching for 2013, whether it comes from free agent spending or in a trade. They may be willing to spend say another $20 million in 2014 if that is what it takes in multi year contracts to get what they want. Spending that kind of money might get a staff that will be as good as 2010 or it could closer resemble what happened in 2012. The problem is, most of the guys signed are going to have a question or 3 surrounding them in terms of health, consistency, or just plain talent. So yes, I agree that Ryan plans/hopes to have a competitive team in 2013. He understands that a lot of things have to go right for that to happen. Which it can if you want to use Oakland and Baltimore as examples from 2012. An extra problem here is that even if the starters he assembles, perform to near a best case scenario, other things will have to go well to be competitve. Good health by the vets, and some growth and consistency by the young guys will have to happen. So, I don't see the Twins dumping Willingham or Morneau this off season. There is no replacements ready, really for either one, and going to the free agent market to replace them will likely offset what you get in return for them. The Twins could conceivably trade someone else, but there would have to be a very high return, which seems a bit unlikely at this time. I think that 2013 is sort of a pivotable year for the Twins. Whether they contend or not in 2013, they will want to see growth by their key prospects. Pitching, throughout the system, needs to be healthy so that the Twins can actually evaluate what they have and what they need. They really need the current core of everyday players to be healthy. Then you can make decisions about whether to trade or keep them. 2013 would seem to be the key to whether the last 2 years were just down years or the beginning of a long rebuilding process.

"During six seasons in the minor leagues, Revere showed the ability to get on base at a very good rate (.383). Most of this was driven by a very high batting average of .326, which is a number that he most likely won't be able to duplicate at the big league level" Quote from above article. I don't really agree with this. People talk like Revere's only skill is his speed, but really, he has always been able to hit. If he becomes a bit more selective, and perhaps improves his bunting, I really think he can challenge for batting titles. A great many speed guys are slap and run guys. I think Revere is a better hitter than that. I also think that playing him too shallow is a double edged sword. Anything that gets by a shallow playing outfielder can easier turn into a triple or perhaps an inside the park home run.

The problem with this question for me is what are other options and what really is the budget? It is hard to say what amount of money should be committed to a pretty risky guy like McCarthy when you really don't know how much the Twins are willing to spend for 2013 and for future years. I would likely rather have McCarthy then Edwin Jackson but that depends on money and years. Maybe the best stragedy here, is find 4 reasonable risk starters for 1 year each for $20-25 mil. It gives you some depth, it would allow to address other areas and may save some be spent during the season if the Twins happened to be better than expected. Investing money in a McCarthy is a large gamble if you have to go multiple years. A guy like Jackson might have ace stuff, but generally pitches like a back of rotation guy, plus no team seems to want him after watching pitch for a year. So maybe you sign 4 moderate risk, moderate reward guys to 1 year deals and see what your team looks like in July.

I dsagree entirely. I don't think trading Mauer is a good idea, at all. You are going to struggle to get comparable talent back. There is nothing in the system that can replace what he does, even if he is only catching half the games. Finally, I don't really see that his contract is big obstacle to being competitive. The issues are making good decisions and being healthy. Having more money to spent but having less talent to work with, because you have traded Mauer, isn't likely to make you a better team.

Lots of interesting speculation on this. I doubt if we ever know if one side "caved" on this trade or not. It is hardly in anyone's interest to reveal that. What is true, is that it will be years before this trade can be fairly evalulated. There is a pretty chance Span will continue to be largely what he has been. Meyer could turn into an ace, a good starting pitcher, a closer, a decent reliever or never reach the majors at all.

. I suppose this is possible. It is also possible/likely that the umpire has decided what to call before the reaction sets in. You do bring up something that hasn't really been discussed on this thread. There are 4 people involved in any strike/ball call. The pitcher, catcher, batter and umpire. If we use for example a pitch on the black(as Bert might say) trying to determine what actually inflluenced the umpire to make the "wrong" call is pretty difficult to determine. First you have to determine if it actually was the wrong call. Pitch f/x might not be right because of camera angles and the depth of the plate. If the pitcher has consistently hit the "corner" of the plate throughout the game, maybe the umpire gives him the benefit of the doubt. Maybe if the batter leans away from what he thinks is going to be an inside pitch, that could influence the call. Maybe the ump misses the call because he just didn't see it clearly. Maybe count influences the ump as John referenced earlier. There do seem to be umps that don't like to call a batter out on an extremely close pitch. And finally maybe framing could influence the ump. The problem is assigning a possibility like framing to every close pitch that is "missed" by the umpire doesn't seem like very good "science". It clearly misses all the possible interplays between all of the participants in the umps dicision.

Where a catcher catches the ball doesn't tell where/if the ball crosses the plate. The idea that how a catcher catches the ball has much of an infuence on the umpire's call is pretty weak. The umpire is focused on where/if the ball crosses the plate, not where it is caught. Can a catcher steal a strike once in awhile- I am sure it happens. Can you take what is a minor skill by a catcher, and elevate to the point that it saves 50 runs in less than half the games by the back up catcher? That is the problem with this "metric". It is not remotely believable and takes away from what should be the central argument, the value of a good defensive catcher. There is no doubt that Molina is a good defensive catcher. He calls good games, works well with his pitchers, throws out runners, probably has a good relationship with most umps and probably is good at number of other things including "framing a pitch". But by doing a sloppy job of constructing this "metric" it obscures what should be the central point. It also shows why most fans should be a lot sceptical of most new metrics.

I have no idea whether the Twins should lockup Revere to a long term contract. What I like about Revere is that he is a natural hitter. Some players, Span is a good example, have to learn how to hit in the minors. Revere has always been able to hit. I don't think he will ever be a 4th outfielder. I do think he could contend for batting titles. I also think that he can refine his hitting stroke to the point where he develops a bit more gap power. It is hard to play a guy with that kind of speed too shallow, if the ball gets past you it is a triple or a home run. Revere has things to learn, but he was also brought up to the majors a year too early. A little more plate discipline, learn how to bunt a little better, a little more consistency with the swing. I expect some pretty good years from Revere as long as he is healthy.

I suspect the quality of the pitching is the key here. Neither the Pirates or the Twins had very good pitching in those years. Tampa certainly did. That is the problem with some of these new metrics, they actually corolate better with something else than what they are trying to measure. I remember when everyone was excited because Jeter's UZR improved one year over the previous year. The real reason was a number of better starting pitchers. Nobody ever really considered that. Finally, I don't doubt that Molina is good at framing pitches. The question is, what is the impact of that rather limited skill. I suspect that Molina has a large impact on a game because of his all around defensive skills. Including working with his pitcher, calling a game, blocking pitches and throwing out runners. While I don't doubt that stealing a pitch here and there is useful, the idea that it is a 5 win skill over 80 games, is pretty unbelievable, and pretty much ruins this metric as anything to pay attention to.

The problem with this metric is that you are giving the catcher credit for something he has no control over. First of all, on close pitches you can't sure that Pitch f/x is any more accurate than the umpire. Camera angles and the inability of Pitch f/x to show the depth of the plate mean that often the umpire could be right and Pitch f/x could be wrong. 2nd, the umpire usualy doesn't see the "framing of the pitches" he is focused on where/if the ball crosses the plate not where the ball is caught. When an umpire misses a call it can be for a variety of reasons. Maybe the catcher blocked the umpires view, maybe the umpire was expecting the pitch to move different than it did, maybe because the pitcher is getting credit for an extra inch because his control has been so good, maybe he missed it because he is human. The idea that a catcher can steal enough pitches for his pitcher to save 50 runs in 80 games isn't just an exaggeration, it is an insult to umpires. They aren't so bad at their jobs that how a catcher catches the ball is going to have much of an effect. I also find it strange that it ok to give exaggerated credit for Molina being a good catcher, but not to Butera.

"If the metric is accurate, Molina saved his team 50 runs in 80 games. Doumit cost the Twins 21 runs in 59 games. Molina's value is all defense but those 50 runs saved represent 5 wins. Doumits -21 represents a loss of 2 wins and completely wipes out his contribution to the team as a hitter" Quote from above article. I used to think most fans underrated defense. Some of these new "metrics" distort it. You really think that how a catcher catches the ball can save his team 50 runs in 80 games? I suspect that most good umps don't even see where the catcher catches the ball. They are focused on the strike zone above the plate. One of the problems with that nice little box that most TV broadcasts use to show whether a ball or a strike, is that it doesn't show the depth of the strike zone. All of this isn't to say that Doumit is a good catcher. He is not. Molina is a lot more valuable than his offensive numbers suggest. Just like Butera is. But saying that Molina won 7 more games than Doumit by how he frames pitches-I don't think that is remotely true.

Guerra probably has a chance to be a useful big league reliever. Unfortunately for him, every big league team has a few guys like him hanging around the edges of the 40 man roster. I think he has a fair chance to pitch for the Twins sometime in 2013, if he can stay healthy. I also think that is likely true for nearly every guy that ends up pitching at Rochester this year.

I don't think Willingham gets traded this offseason. The thing that would of made such a trade possible, is that if Joe Benson would have continued progressing. He had moved through the system with Parmelee, putting up better numbers most of way, until 2012 crapped out on him. He is just about about the only power, right handed bat in the upper minors. He could be the logical successor to Willingham. It would be very good for the Twins if Benson, Hicks and Arcia can all settle in at AAA this coming year and put together dominating seasons, all of a sudden the Twins have all sorts of trade possibilities. Assuming, of course, that Willingham, Morneau and Parmelee are all healthy and productive. I don't imagine all of those things will happen. Still, the Twins really need some guys to show they are ready before they move Willingham or anybody else.

I would assume Ryan talking to Liriano's agent is more or less in the category of "leaving no stone unturned". That doesn't mean they wouldn't offer Liriano a contract, just that it would likely take place after most of the rotation is in place. It would also likely mean a very reasonable contract, likely in the Marquis area. At this point it would be hard for me to see anyone offering Liriano more than $3-4 million. Maybe plus incentives. These type of stories usually come from agents. They are trying to show teams that there is interest in their guy. Personally, I am not particularly excited about bringing Liriano back. He can't manage his mechanics, he hasn't learned how to pitch, and I think somewhere in his head he thinks that it will be 2006 again with the high 90's fastball and the unhitable slider. If he does come back to the Twins, I hope Parker is right, and Cuellar can work some magic with him.

Largely, I agree with this. I doubt if what the Cubs paid Feldman and Baker should have much effect on the Twins. If we go by what the Twins paid their starters last year, it is easy to suggest that there should be $20 million to perhaps as much as $30 million available for pitching this year. I would think that there should be room for multiple year contracts as well. I have no idea exactly how Ryan will do it, but it would be nice to see 3 or 4 pitchers acquired. Keep in mind that if Span, Willingham or Morneau is traded, it also sheds salary, possibly freeing up more for pitching. I do think that there should be room for a $12 million per year contract. It should be possible to spent around that much more for 2 or 3 more pitchers. Ryan maybe be able to acquire what he wants for less than that. He may spend a little more depending on what contract goes away in a trade. But, assuming that is what he has to work with, I don't think the Baker/Feldman contracts should have a huge impact on what Ryan can do.

Baker's past history suggests a certain level of effectiveness. Whether he will regain that level immediately coming off TJ surgery is one question. It is also rather questionable that he will be able to pitch more than 120-140 innings at the major league level. As far as Feldman goes, he has been a slightlly more effective Swarzak to this point of his career. As to the last part of your statement, it is likely that a great many of the guys commanding a lot more than $6 million and probably for multiple years, aren't going to be very effective. It happens every time guys are signed to long term or high paying contracts, that a large per cent don't perform to their contracts. That is one reason GM's look for free agent bargains. Despite that, Ryan is going to have sign or trade for a couple of guys with large and probably multi year contracts. He will likely try to sign at least one more probably 2, "bargains" as well. I think he has the money to do that. That doesn't mean people won't complain about his choices, or what we have to give up to get whoever he choose.

I also feel like Dozier still could be the answer (well, medium term answer anyway) at shortstop. Certainly, Bartlett struggled in his first opportunity with the Twins and it wasn't like they had rushed him. There seems like there maybe an answer to the shortstop question in the minors, but since none of the possible answers have played above A ball, it would be nice to settle on somebody for the next few years. We should see how the Twins feel about Florimon/Dozier by spring. If they don't bring in a real shortstop, likely through trade, they probably feel like one of the above 2 can handle the job for awhile.

I will be a little disappointed if the Twins add that many minor league free agents. You should lose about 15 minor league free agents a year near the top of the minor leagues just to make room for younger players moving up. If you have to replace all the minor league free agents you lost, with more minor league free agents, well then your young guys just aren't developing. That is pretty much what happened last year. It seems like a lot of kids in the lower minors had pretty good years. I hope that means they are developing and ready to move up a level. What you hope happens is that there is a few players at AAA every year who move up to the majors. Ideally there should be around 10 AA players ready to move to AAA. The same all the way down the system. Of course it doesn't work that way in real life. There are mid-year promotions and injuries and often promising prospects stall out at higher levels. Still, if a minor league system is real healthy, it should be able to replace most of the minor league free agents and other dropouts from within the system.