Jim H

I am not the minor league guy most of you are. Given that, I kind of think the minor league breakout pitcher could come from a group of young 20's starters like Atherton, Duffy, Melotakis, Summers, Baxendale and Lee. That is pretty big group, and I don't know which one will figure it out. But these guys have had some success and I expect one of them will jump up a couple of levels this year and maintain success as they or he moves up. Among the position players I like D. J. Hicks, Goodrum, J.D Williams,and Kvasnicka. This the year for these guys. They have all been in pro ball for awhile, none have had sustained success, all have certain recognized talents amd it is about time for them to turn their talent into skills that can be sustained. If it doesn't happen soon for these guys, it probably won't. Still, if they all take that next step forward, the Twins system would look even better.

I wasn't very clear in my last post. What I trying to say is that Hughes hasn't been good for 3 years. During those 3 years Deduno, Worley and Diamond have all had stretches, nearly a full year in Damond's case, where they have been much better than Hughes during this 3 year period. And lets face it, even in his best year starting, Hughes was no top of the rotation pitcher. Does he have upside, of course. Is he likely to reach it? Well that is the question. As I have said, I can see why the Twins might try to sign him. If you can get him for a 2 year deal, in the $7 mil per year area, well that might be worth the gamble. The problem is, I don't know that he is all that likely to pitch better than at least one of Diamond, Worley and Deduno. Hughes probably could be better than any of them but if he couldn't do it with a good team behind him, will a change of scenery to what will likely be a much poorer team, at least the first year, really going to help him? It might be interesting to find out, but I guess I would rather expect him to struggle. I could be wrong, because he seems to have the talent.

Worley, Diamond and Deduno have all pitched better than Hughes in the majors, more recently. It doesn't mean they will in the future, but Hughes is a gamble as well. He will also be a more expensive gamble. Again, I can see why the Twins might sign him, I just won't be very surprised if he isn't very good. He hasn't been for 3 years.

I don't really have anything against signing Hughes, especially if its only one or two years. I do think the advantage of having Target Field over Yankee Stadium as your home field is overblown. Hughes may be able to put up slightly better numbers by switching home fields, but that advantage goes to his opposing pitchers as well who are also pitching in Target Field instead of Yankee Stadium. The bottom line is Hughes will have to pitch better than he has the last couple years if he is going to be any bargain. That could happen, he is still young, throws hard and has pretty good stuff. But it is no guarantee either, which why he is available and probably not going to be offered a big contract. Maybe getting out of New York which has all sort of pressures not found in Minnesota would help. He seems a little less likely than many of the available free agents to be an injury risk. That is something. I wouldn't expect him to be a big contributor, but I would of said the same about Liriano last year.

Nolasco seems to be a pretty good choice. Since what is available is mid rotation starters, it is nice they picked one who has been pretty consistently good. I would rather see 3 years, but I doubt if they had much choice in that. I expect another decent starter, then it is up to the holdovers and kids coming up to make a good rotation. Which it always was, there was never enough talent out there to buy a post season rotation.

While I expect this is a different view than most of the people frequenting this site hold, I don't really care which free agent pitchers the Twins sign this offseason. I expect the Twins to sign 2 free agent pitchers, and perhaps even a 3rd "flyer" of some sort. I have no favorites and really don't think it matters who the Twins sign or necessarily, for how long. First of all, I don't think there are any difference makers out there(With the possible exception of Tanaka). Many could possibly give you a very good season, but are clearly unlikely to do that for the length of a multi-year contract. A very good season in 2014 from any free agent pitcher, isn't by itself going to turn the Twins into a contender in 2014. Even 2 free agent pitchers having such seasons won't. The Twins pitching staff needs some immediate help. John Bonnes wrote recently that the Twins Daily crew had identified 16 free agent pitchers better "than Correia". Beyond the fact that this is a rather low bar, he didn't set out their criteria. My guess is they are including guys who were better than Correia but haven't pitched much recently due to injuries. He could also be including guys who should be better than Correia but haven't been (like Hughes). In any case this is a pretty small pool, when you consider the fact the at least 25 major league teams are likely looking for starting pitching help. The odds of the Twins actually being able to get any of the guys they really want with that much competition, isn't very good. The only way for the Twins to get significantly better is through internal improvement. The young former prospects like Hicks, Arcia, Plouffe, Dozier, etc. have to get better. The youngish starting pitchers(Diamond, Worley, Deduno) need to be able to pitch to their fairly recent major league success. The near ready prospects like Gibson, Darnell, Pinto need to perform like we think they can. And finally, and most significantly, the true impact prospects(Sano and Buxton) need to get to the majors and be something of an impact, almost immediately. The potential free agent pitchers the Twins could sign and will sign, don't really matter very much. Unless some of the above begins to happen, the Twins won't get better. Not in any meaningful way. That doesn't mean the Twins shouldn't sign any free agent pitchers. They should and will. It doesn't mean they shouldn't sort through the available free agents, carefully and throughly. They need some immediate help and should get it. But, no matter who they get, the pitching help won't be that impactful. Also, the longer the contract the Twins are forced to give, it becomes extremely doubtful that pitcher will provide any help the last year of that contract. I hope that the Twins get a bit lucky in their free agent signings. I hope whoever they sign stays healthy. That isn't all that likely with most of these guys. I actually hope the Twins can sign whoever they really want to fairly short contracts. When the Twins start getting good again, well there is no way to know what they really will need and how much it will cost to get it. I don't want to see resources tied up in long term pitching contracts or least not to any of the guys available in this free agent class.

My guess is that Johnson has no real chance to make the team out of spring training, but that Ryan thought one more near ready starter at AAA might be useful. Given history over the last couple years, he could be right. Still, I expect Albers to be given a chance to make the team as a long reliever. That would make Diamond as first in line(likely competing with righties, Worley, Deduno, and Gibson for maybe 2 spots that could be available). That would leave 2 lefty starters at AAA, Johnson and Darnell. That's not so many. Any could be candidates, eventually for long relief as well.

My thought is you protect the guys you think are likely to become the best players. Trying to guess what 29 other teams might or might not do is a bit of a fool's game. I was a bit surprised by Vargas, I have always thought he was one of those guys who could hit in the minors and has great power, but has too many holes in his swing, not enough bat speed, and no position he can play in the majors. Apparently, the Twins think he can better than that, and likely they are right. Or at least more right than I am likely to be.

I am sorry, but I don't pay much attention to what Neal says about things like this. While I am sure he has lots of Twins sources, there has never been much indication that any of them reach into the GM's office. I doubt if he has any more idea of what Ryan might do this off season than what has been said to the rest of the media.

I understand the talent part concerning Liriano and Garza for that matter. But the real fact is that the only thing Liriano has done better(since his TJ surgery) in his career, than say a mediorce talent like Correia, is strike people out. And that doesn't/hasn't translated to be being more effective. I personally feel the Twins deserve more blame for the way they handled Kyle Loisch than Liriano. There was clearly a good pitcher hiding in Loisch, to this point, I don't think we can say that about Liriano. That despite the fact that Liriano can be much more dominating for stretches than Loisch ever was. So yeah, I don't begrudge the Twins not resigning Liriano. There were certainly those who wanted to resign Lliriano. Some wanted the Twins to sign Liriano to a long term contract after the 2010 season. Given how he pitched in 2011-2012, that would have looked silly. Right now, a 2 year contract during the last offseason for $14 million looks pretty good. Unfortunately, pitchers are so inconsistent due to injuries and other factors, that almost any long term contract and most short term ones, can look pretty good or darn bad depending at what point you are looking at it.

You do remember how Liriano pitched since his TJ surgery, don't you? It possible that he finally past all that, but it more likely that 2013 was a blip, sort of like 2010 was. In any case I find it hard to fault the Twins for not matching or exceeding the 2 year $14 mill contract the Pirates originally offered Liriano last year. Hindsight, is always 20-20 vision.

Explain to me again why the Twins should of kept a guy who was pitching poorly for them, continued to pitch poorly for the White Sox and wasn't likely to resign with the Twins anyway?

If you are referring to the free agents signed after the 2012 season, Jackson, Haren, and many others. If you are referring to the upcoming free agents, Hughes, Volques and others. Strikeout rates are fine to look at. But if you are going to spend a lot of money on someone as free agent, I would think you would look at the total picture. ERA, innings pitched, innings per start, BB rate, and probably several other things as well.

Fair enough, but 2008-2010 are examples of what you can do without any top of the rotation starters. If all of your starters are pretty good, you can end up with a 95 win season like 2010. Of course the rest of team has to be better than pretty good and your defense and bullpen better be darn good as well. I just think that having a bunch of c/c+ pitching prospects is a good thing. Some could jump up and be better than that and if they do, they will move fast.

What you say here is true, most top pitchers have good strikeout rates. What you are replying to is also true, most of those guys with good strikeout rates that are being targeted in free agency weren't very good pitchers in 2013. There is no contradiction, it is easy to get in trouble with these kind of projections if you only focus on one criteria. Hughes, Liriano, Edwin Jackson and many others have managed good strikeout rates throughout their careers. What they haven't done is been consistently good throughout their careers. While it is true that most top pitchers have good strikeouts rates, the reverse is not true, not all pitchers with good strikeout rates are top pitchers.

I am not going to submit a ranking. Largely I don't know enough, plus I don't think exact rankings matter much since so much of the rankings are based on projection and certain personal biases. That doesn't mean I don't find them interesting and I do have a few observations based on Seth's rankings. Although many people consider starting pitching a weakness in the Twins system, I am not so sure that is true. Among the top 20 prospects(according to Seth) are 9 starting pitchers. There are 8 more pitchers in the next ten. A lot of these guys, if they make the majors at all, will end up in relief. Still, if we agree that position players are a strength of the system, it is interesting that so many pitchers are that high. It is even more interesting that 2 guys ranked very high just a couple of years ago(Wimmers and Salcedo) are now ranked 40 and below. Although both have had serious injuries, they are only 24 and 22 respectively, and there is reason to believe that both could regain their former effectiveness. That both are so low, speaks to the perceived strength of the organization's pitching. People also suggest that though some of the pitching could be very good, it also very young and very far away from the majors. I believe that is partly true. Very good pitchers can and usually do, move up a system and to the majors quicker than comparable position players. Or at least that is often true. Baker, Slowey, and Henricks all moved to the majors quickly, even though I would hesitate to call any of them very good. If some of these young pitchers have the kind of stuff that many suggest they do, they could move very quickly. There are also some guys without the dominant stuff, who were pitching at A Ball this year, who could move quickly because they know how to pitch and their secondary pitches are pretty refined. One of the interesting things about lists like this, is that it all about upside. There are guys not on this list or near the bottom of this list, who will make the majors and perhaps perform significant roles for their teams. Guys in the Twins system like that could include Beresford, Ibarra, Turner, Kvasnicka and few more pitchers who likely will end up in relief. I do like the position players in the top half of this list. I am rather encouraged that a number of them are middle infielders, another area that is often considered a weakness in the Twins system. Finally, thanks again Seth, for your list. I appreciate your work.

I expect the Twins to sign a couple of free agent pitchers this year, but for them to have much of an impact, the Twins players that are coming back have to play better than they did this year. Hell, the pitchers the Twins sign will probably have to pitch better than they did this year, to have any positive impact. That is if we are talking about guys like Hughes and Baker and actually a large part of the free agent class. That is the point of the no shortcuts comment. The current Twins have to play better, or be replaced by minor leaguers who play better. The free agent pitchers who are available have either been bad, hurt or (because there are so few of them) will be insanely expensive. You might get lucky in the free agent market, but since the top of the market as profiled by Nick, had 3 guys who pitched no better than Corrieia this year, you probably won't. Again, I expect the Twins to sign a couple of guys. I actually hope they are short term contracts, unless the Twins actually manage to snag a Tanaka or maybe E. Santana. If they happen to be good, or recovered from their injuries, well then resign them. Most of the long term contracts will be bad investments like they always have been.

Seth, I really appreciate your top fifty lists. More the comments than the actual ratings, you put a lot of work into them. I am rather excited about this year's list. When guys like Wimmers and Salcedo are near the bottom, it speaks to a certain amount of depth. I am not a huge fan of Santana, I am not sure why. He has produced the last few years, and errors are often cleaned up as players mature. Right now, I am a bigger fan of Goodrum and Polanco as future big league middle infielders, though unlike you, I have never seen any of them play. I like Pinto too, and think he will get better defensively. He didn't look that bad defensively this fall, the strong arm and hard work will likely compensate for some of his weaknesses. I am pretty hopeful about May. I think he should be a pretty good starter someday, and I hope the Twins don't move him to reliever unless he acually fails as a major league starter. While I like guys who don't walk many, big guys like May often take a long time to harness their stuff.

It seems many feel the way this thread is going, the Twins should draft a college pitcher with the no. 5 pick in 2014. I don't feel strongly that way, in part because I think the Twins have a lot of starter type arms in the system right now. Most won't stay as starters, and many will never make the majors, but some have top of the rotation potential. If they stay healthy and develop, they will reach the majors quickly. Pitchers with top of the rotation stuff, get to the majors quickly and they will likely perform at high level pretty quickly as well. They should actually (if they make the majors as starters at all) match up pretty well with when the Twins position player prospects start performing at a high level(if they ever do). What I hope happens is this, the sign at least a couple of free agents this winter. I don't mind if they are "make a wish" types, that is guys who are recovering from injuries and are one year contract guys. As far as the draft goes, just find the best players available, some will be pitchers in the early rounds. If any turn out to have top of the rotation potential, they will get to the majors soon enough. When the Twins position player prospects start getting good at the major league level, there should be some starting pitching prospects getting good as well. Who knows how all this will actually work out, but I am not too excited about overpaying guys like Hughes(who was a great deal worse than Corriea this year) or not drafting the highest ceiling prospect in the first round in order get a college pitcher who might contribute sooner.

I really don't pay that much attention to what other teams do in the draft. I have no idea who the Twins should/could/might take in the 2014 draft. I do think the breakdown of college kids versus high school kids is interesting. It seems to me that over the years there have been some patterns to how the Twins draft. During the first 3 rounds they seem to employ "the best player available" stragedy. They may draft high school or college players and there doesn't seem to be a particular leaning toward either pitchers or position players. After the first 100 players are selected it seems the Twins will still go after the best player available but with a greater focus on college guys, through about round 10. There are guys drafted in this part of the draft every year who turn into very good major league players. This is where the Twins found Kubel, Crain, Valencia and others. Kubel was a high school player but the Twins don't seem to take a lot of high school guys in this area of the draft. From about round 10 to about round 20 the focus is still largely on college guys but it seems the Twins focus more on organizational needs. Some years middle infield, maybe catcher some years, or often pitchers though a lot pitchers are taken every year. They might take a shot at a high school player in this range if he has fallen a bit in the draft and the Twins think he might be signable. Some of the new draft money rules may make this tougher. The back half in the draft is interesting to me. Often the Twins will draft high school players they don't necessarily expect to sign, but once in a while they will. Like a Brock Peterson or more often some toolsy kid not really interested in college. The rest of the signees can be a mixed bag. Often 4 year college guys from smaller colleges who had nice stats against poorer competition or major college guys who didn't put up great stats but may have some tool that makes them interesting. I think some organizations don't really put much effort into this part of the draft. I think the Twins do, but they still occasionally will draft, oh say the manager's son, or perhaps the nephew of one the coaches who is blind in one eye. As far as the 2014 draft goes, I kind of expect that the Twins will draft "the best player available". They might like to get a pitcher at number 5 but I think they will go for another toolsy high school position player if they think he is likely to turn into a superstar and they don't think any of the college pitchers available at that point will. Just a guess.

You are aware that in the last 2 drafts the A's have taken high school players with their first round draft picks? Whatever the A's thought was the correct way to draft in 2002 isn't apparently what they go by now. That isn't to say that the Twins shouldn't take a college pitcher with the first pick in the 2014 draft. But, I don't think your premise that taking a college player is always a better idea than a high school player is something most organizations follow. Including the A's.

Wasn't Achter a 10th or 11th round choice? The Marlins and Rays must be really slipping to let him fall that low.

I don't really want to involve myself in this debate, largely because nobody is going to change their mind on what they believe about the Twins organization, anyway. There are however, a few things thrown out there, here and other threads that aren't really all that true, but seem to be accepted as fact. First, the Twins have made changes in their scouting over the last five years or so. They have a new scouting director, changes in assignments and I believe, new scouts. They have also made changes in how they evaluate, according to reports. 2nd, in development, that is coaching and managing in the minors, they have made significant changes in this area over the last 5 years. In fact most of the minor league managers from 5 years ago are gone and so are many of the coaches. Some of these people are new to the organization, Glynn and Brunansky(who afterall had not been part of the Twins organization for over 20 years). There are few others who are new to the organization as well as a number of younger guys(former players) such as Jake Mauer and Watkins. Now, it is true that the top of the organization is pretty intrenched with people who have been with the organization a long time. But, there does seem to be some changing of the guard at other levels. Whether this is enough change for you, is a personal opinion. But to suggest there is no change and that no people from outside the organization are ever brought in, is a bit of an exageration.

Actually, I tend to agree with this statement. There are however, 2 problems associated with this. The first is that, there are only a few guys who have the kind of production that really justifies interest, and that really drives up the price. The 2nd is that the next tier really gets expensive as well and sometimes the production doesn't really match with the price. Clearly, the Twins will likely end up spending in this area this coming off-season and while I won't complain if they do, it is very likely the Twins will end up with someone whose production will probably be no better than Correia was this year. A good potential example of this is Hughes from the Yankees. Even though he was really no better and perhaps worse than Correia was this year, he is going to command much more than Correia did. Hughes has a big fastball, some good stuff, is relatively young and has a bit of a track record of success. Still, except for one year, his record as a starter is that of a back of the rotation guy. I really don't know don't know what he will get, perhaps 3 years at $12 mil per year, but it could be more than that. I would be surprised if it is less. The problem is while he has flashed the stuff of a top of rotation guy, the most likely outcome is Correia like production. Because, that is actually what he has done through most of his career. Again, I won't be upset if the Twins get him or someone like him, but expecting something really good out of someone who has seldom produced at that level, is setting yourself up for disappointment.

What I got out of this summary is that of all the free agent pitchers signed last year Correia was among the top six. This despite the fact that at least a dozen of these guys got more money per year than he did. This tends to highlight the problem with free agents. Most really aren't very good, whether it is injuries, age or other reasons. But because everyone needs pitchers GM's are willing to gamble money and years even though good results aren't all that likely. The best results for the money, were Colon and Liriano and even Liriano had a 2 year offer for $7 mil a year till he hurt himself over the winter. It almost looks like you have just as good a chance of getting a good pitcher(if you do your research and get lucky) of digging around in the bargain bin as spending $10 mil a year on multiple year contracts for "2nd tier" free agents.