stringer bell
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Everything posted by stringer bell
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Gardy's re-signing was the height of my discontent, not because he had done a good job or bad job, because to me it signaled more of the same. I think Ryan has demonstrated that more of the same is relative and perhaps this is about continuity. I am still not convinced that Gardenhire will be the right guy for this wave of talent. However, with the signing of three pitchers to multi-year contracts, I am sure Ryan is not saying "all is well". -
While I probably agree that Florimon wouldn't be a starter on a pennant contender, but I don't think going for a 30 y.o.-plus free agent SS is the answer. If the Twins don't think they've got a regular SS in their system, they would be well advised to trade for one, a la Segura and Iglesias. Age and injuries take away the skills that make the guys special unless you are Derek Jeter and it appears that time has finally caught up with him.
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While Florimon's defense improved, on balance, as the season wore on, his offense diminished as the season progressed. I would say that he had a hard time staying focused in his first full season, especially with all the losing. After experiencing last year, perhaps he'll be better equipped to sustain more consistent performance, both offensively and defensively, for an entire season.
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Polanco looked to be a little short in the arm strength department to be a really good major league shortstop. I saw him play two games at short and he showed decent range but a couple of routine plays seemed pretty close and he wasn't able to make a couple of plays from the shortstop hole. I see Polanco as the most likely replacement for Dozier. Florimon is a nice defensive SS. He struggled early but, man, it was really cold outside. I don't know if Pedro's replacement is in the system. I'm certainly not sold on Santana. I like that Florimon can occasionally get a hold of one, and if he can be patient and make more frequent contact and maybe beat out a few more bunts, he can be an asset.
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I've weighed in on this before. How many switch hitters have gone exclusively RH? I can think of precious few and if Hicks is helpless against RH pitching, he is worthless or close to it. His history suggests it takes longer to adjust LH, but that he eventually does. If he wants to remain a prospect to be a major league regular, it will be as a switch hitter IMHO.
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I think it is safe to say that the acquisition of three free agent starters this winter has raised the floor considerably for starting pitching in 2014. None of the four acquired in the last two years profiles as an ace or even a number 2. With about five candidates to fill out the rotation out of Spring Training and a top prospect (Meyer) getting close, I think it can be reasonably expected that the Twins starting numbers will be quite a bit better, but quite a bit better might still land the Twins in the bottom quadrant of starting pitchers. How much value does one give for going from 29th to 22nd? Meanwhile, most of the offensive issues haven't been addressed. The Twins are hoping for young and youngish players to establish themselves and for veterans to bounce back. Yes, help in on the horizon, but 2014 looks a lot like the year I foresaw for 2013--transition with a bright future probably a year away--and it doesn't look promising that the Twins will contend in the coming year.
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I like Dozier a lot. He signed a baseball for me two straight years in Spring Training. He seems to have found a home at second and it makes Polanco and perhaps Rosario expendible. My worry is that the power just isn't going to be sustained. I do believe he'll get on more and will continue to be a fine fielding 2B. I think it might be wise to have a little bit older guy when all of the really young guys show up, so it might be very wise to keep Dozier and cashier one of the up and coming second sackers.
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Misinformed Alex Meyer substitute teacher story/Teachers' pay
stringer bell replied to Thrylos's topic in Other Baseball
I saw Meyer last year in Spring Training. While his height would be intimidating, the fact that he looks about 19 would take a lot of the intimidation factor away. -
Albers didn't sustain his success very long, and he is older. I don't think he will have much luck going forward, but he'll get his chance this year in Spring Training.
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That was a really good post above, Doc Bauer. I like your comment about the rotation, but I see a real parallel with Aaron Hicks. The thought is that if the young high-potential guy wins out, he then and only then should get the reps. Aaron Hicks needs to show he's ready to play in the majors and he will have to do that in Rochester, I think. I hope that he shows he's ready by sometime in May, but that is up to him. Best wishes to both Gibson and Hicks. The season is incredibly long and if both those guys are big contributors by midseason, we'll all have forgotten the guys who they displaced.
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I agree with much of your solution. However, since he is left handed and breathing, I think Diamond deserves a chance to win a starting spot. Certainly, Diamond was not highly regarded before 2012, but he put together a quality season just last year, including a 116 ERA+. That ERA+ has been exceeded in a full season (150 IP+) by the four free agent starters signed by the Twins exactly one time (Ricky Nolasco in 2008). I'm still amazed how we fans can go ga-ga over Jeff Johnson, Tim Lincecum or Hughes, but be so sour on Worley or Diamond. Of all the free agent pitchers available the last two years, most have been dreadful at least one year, and if they haven't been dreadful they've been injured. Reliable, durable, high quality starting pitching is indeed a rare commodity. Rare commodities cost a lot to acquire and retain which is why real aces make great money.
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I think Parm gets the 25th spot, but I think I do agree with you about the limits to his ability because he hasn't been able to hit the high fastball. I wonder if somebody like the Brewers might take a flyer on him (they need a 1B and Parm has some positional flexibility).
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I think the evaluation period for the two players hasn't or shouldn't have been the same. Parmelee is in his mid-20s and can capably defend at two positions. Colabello is 30 and might be passable at first base (a position now manned by Joe Mauer). Any platoon would favor the left handed hitter.
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Pelfrey did strike out 6.0 batters per nine innings in 2013, probably reflective of the elevated K trend in mlb. IIRC, Pelf had the highest K rate of Twins starters--probably the ultimate "damning with faint praise".
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I do agree that things usually do work out and it is premature to speculate on transactions so early. However, it is problematic that there likely isn't more than one open spot in the rotation with four or five candidates, including three that are out of options. It makes sense to address the "problem" when it really is a problem, but holding on the one or more of those guys and getting little or no return for letting them go might be another example of selling low.
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Article: Can Terry Ryan Truly Change His Stripes?
stringer bell replied to Jim Crikket's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think Drew is a big risk of being a bust. He is a good player at a position where there aren't many good players, but he will be 31 and has a long injury history. -
Article: Can Terry Ryan Truly Change His Stripes?
stringer bell replied to Jim Crikket's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
In regard to acquiring Morales, could there be a mechanism where the Mariners re-sign Morales to terms that the Twins negotiate and then send him to the Twins for either a C prospect or money? This would be something like the sign-and-trade deals that the NBA teams make. -
I think it is nearly a given that at least one guy in the Opening Day 2014 bullpen is viewed as a starter who lost out in the competition in Spring Training. I think that is healthy for the ball club and won't hurt the player or players long term. What such a move will do is limit the bullpen to six pitchers (counting Duensing and Swarzak) who are considered relievers. It may open up the possibility of a trade for an outfielder or perhaps an LH hitting infielder who could take at-bats from Plouffe or Dozier.
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How big is the pitching staff?
stringer bell replied to diehardtwinsfan's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Twelve now seems to be the minimum. With a healthy starting staff full of innings eaters, I don't think there will be a need to go beyond that number. -
He IS left handed. We haven't had a major league LH catcher since I've been alive and I'm old. I don't think Kepler was ever a catcher.
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Spring Training will be important for Parmelee. I think he has a chance to win a spot on the team and if he's moderately promising more teams would be interested in him as a low-cost lottery ticket. He's younger, a better fielder, and more versatile than either Colabello or Kubel. Mauer, Hammer, and Arcia all figure to be ahead of Parm, for sure. Kubel will probably have the inside track to be the DH and he has a track record of as a good hitter until the last year and a half. It is pretty likely that somebody will suffer an injury and there is a pretty good likelihood that Willingham will be traded by the deadline. Parmelee needs to win a spot and then perform or he won't be with the Twins much longer.
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If Hicks spends a month at Rochester, he will not go to Super 2 status two years hence, increasing his value. I am in Blackjack's camp that the team has no rationale to start Hicks as the CF this April. Unlike Dozier, there is an incumbent in center field who wasn't born during the Nixon administration. While I think this will straighten out before the All-Star game, Presley starts in center and Hicks starts in Rochester.
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If you recall last spring, the official (and unofficial) word from the Twins was that Hicks was showing the maturity of a 10-year veteran and doing all of the things he needed to do to earn the starting CF gig. He didn't hit and some "little things" popped up that apparently were unacceptable to the team. I personally think that the "little things" would have been swept under the rug if Aaron was hitting 100 points higher.
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I don't. Hicks' stock was raised by a strong 2012 and enhanced some more by a very good spring training. Now he's coming off a very disappointing 2013 and I don't think any performance in the spring can play him onto the Twins squad as the center fielder. With success at AAA, I expect him to be a regular in Minnesota by midseason, with Presley assuming the more natural role of 4th outfielder.
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I don't think outrighting Mastro means that he won't be the fourth OF to start the season. It simply means that he was expendable enough to get through waivers. Mastroianni needs to prove that he is all the way back from his injury. this move does mean they won't designate a pitcher who may or may not get through waivers, so most likely all the guys on the 40-man will get a chance to compete for a spot on the Twins' staff.
