stringer bell

While I think Mauer's resume should give him the starting job at first out of spring training, it isn't fair or right for him to be guaranteed playing time because of what he was. If, for the third straight season, Mauer doesn't hit anything like the Mauer we knew, he could be a part-time player despite his contract.

I agree with this. IMHO, Dozier should have been the team MVP for the last three years. That said, it is unlikely that he'll be the team MVP again with the duo of Buxton and Sano likely to dominate the award for the next decade. There is a lot to admire about Brian Dozier, and it is more than his hair. He made adjustments to become an outstanding player and it appears he will have to continue to adjust if he wants to remain in that class.

What the Twins have done is not sold off everyone. The Mauer contract precluded him being traded. Ryan signed relatively low-budget guys like Doumit and Willingham to bridge the gap until the prospects were ready to step up. More recently middle money was spent on spec for Pelfrey and Suzuki and decent-to-big money spent on Hughes, Nolasco and ESantana. If I'm finding fault, I would think that maybe the Twins could have spent bigger on higher-quality arms. The collection of Pelfrey, Nolasco, Hughes and Santana isn't awe-inspiring especially compared to front line starting pitchers on other teams.

But Milone wasn't a 7th or 8th best starter. I think overall he was second best. He may have the seventh or eighth best upside, but his performance is good enough to be in the rotation of almost every team. In a rose-colored world where every player hits that upside he wouldn't have a place, but that isn't going to happen. If I'm the GM of a team that expects to contend I don't want PJ Walters, Scott Diamond and Andrew Albers starting games in August because I saved a couple million by trading a quality starter for pennies on the dollar.

Eye test: Hicks is decent in center field, but not exceptional. He goes side-to-side and in very well, but isn't that good going back. I know he has a strong arm, but I wouldn't classify that part of his game as exceptional either. Hitting: He looked like a big leaguer this year, still not an offensive asset. Certainly he's the most improved position player.

This runs afoul of the common suggestions on several threads to trade (in order) Nolasco, Milone and Gibson. I'm going to keep saying it, there appear to me to be only eight guys who look ready to take regular turns in the rotation. That really isn't enough.

Respectfully disagree with your panel. Sano was awesome at the plate, but that is only one facet of the game (albeit a large one). Rosario filled up the stat sheet over 80% of the season, as compared to 50% for Sano. I give the Rookie of the Year to Eddie Rosario.

After the back-slapping is done at Twins Way, the general manager should have time to take a long, hard look at the season that just played out. The Twins won 83 games and were competitive. The season was highlighted by one fine month (May) and a pluckiness that kept them from sinking too far when times got tough. The Twins pitching improved more than their metrics indicated while offensively the team scored more runs than their numbers indicated. The Twins scored 695 runs, while the league averaged 710. In 2014, the club scored 715 runs, ranking in the top half of most offensive statistics except for home runs. What changed? Plenty. In 2014, the Twins had better than average performance from a player at all nine positions. In 2015, they managed to have players with an OPS+ above 100 at three positions, and only one player (Miguel Sano) whose numbers could be classified as well above average. The team was dead last in on-base percentage and their top hitter had a batting average of .265. The 2014 had more than 100 more walks than the 2015 team, while accumulating 65 more strikeouts. Somehow the 2015 group finished in the middle of the pack in runs scored, but overall offense took a severe downturn. Part of that can be explained by personnel--the Twins got more than 450 at-bats from Eddie Rosario, who provided first-rate defense in the outfield corners instead of playing lumbering DHs and first basemen in the outfield. Regression hit the Twins hard as well. 2014 newcomers Santana and Vargas along with Oswaldo Arcia all struggled and were banished to the minor leagues, with Arcia not even being recalled when rosters were expanded. Full-time regulars Dozier and Plouffe saw their seasons fall off after seeing career bests in 2014. 2014 All-Star Kurt Suzuki came back to earth with a BA 40 points lower and his OPS+ falling from 104 to 67. Pitching was more of a mixed bag. The Twins' rotation wasn't great, but wasn't the embarrassment that previous editions had been. Only Kyle Gibson made it through the season without missing a start, but every starter had good moments. The bullpen, which all along seemed to be a weak link, was aided by the addition of a couple of guys via trade and one guy via demotion from the starting rotation. Also assisting in the staff's improvement was better, more athletic defense, particularly in the outfield. Still, the Twins still ranked last in strikeouts and first in hits allowed while yielding the second-fewest walks, a continuation of the much-maligned "pitch-to-contact" meme from previous seasons. Looking at the roster, it is a combination of veterans and young players with a couple (Dozier and Plouffe) in between. Suzuki, Mauer, and Hunter are all in the second half of their careers, while youngsters handle the other positions. The pitching staff had many over-30 guys pitching, including almost all of the bullpen. In general, the offense needs to improve by getting on base more. Too much of the team's power is concentrated in right handed hitters, and more speed would help. On the mound, more power arms are needed. There are specific questions that need to be answered, as well. Here are five questions that need to be answered in the off-season and my takes on each one: 1) What will Trevor May's role be for the 2016 Twins? May is one of the top arms on the Twins. While he wants to start and profiles to be a good one, I think he should be in the bullpen as the eighth inning guy, and perhaps as the closer. His stuff "played up" in the bullpen and he had several outings that were dominant. 2) How can the Twins augment the catcher position? Kurt Suzuki had a 67 OPS+ and his backups were dreadful at the plate. Suzuki was among the worst at throwing out base stealers (his pitchers didn't help much) and there were too many unblocked pitches. I think there are two options--acquire a backup from outside the organization or get a starting replacement also from outside the organization. I don't know who that player is, but I think a lefty hitter who is respectable defensively. Ideally, Suzuki should either share time or be the backup. 3) What of Torii Hunter? Hunter was a valuable presence who provided 22 homers, but he hit .242 with a .701 OPS at a premium offensive position. Hunter has stated that he doesn't want to be a part-time player and the Twins have top prospect Byron Buxton and minor league Player of the Year Max Kepler perhaps ready to help next year. Oswaldo Arcia also figures in here. 4) Is it time for Trevor Plouffe to be traded? He has led the club in RBIs the last two years, provided steady and improved defense and has become a team leader. However, Miguel Sano looks the part of a superstar and shouldn't be a DH at 22 years of age. I think that it is in fact time. Plouffe is a good player, but he shouldn't stand in the way of Sano. The Twins could perhaps fill the catcher gap by trading Plouffe. 5) Rick Nolasco is still under contract for two more years. He's been a total disappointment for the first two years of his contract. Can the Twins get out from under his contract? It would be great if Terry Ryan could slough off the contract, but I doubt it. I think Nolasco enters the 2016 season as one of the guys in the Twins rotation. That, in my opinion, seals the deal that May starts in the bullpen. It also indicates that JO Berrios and Tyler Duffey will have a mountain to climb in order to make the rotation to start the season. While it seems silly not to have the best arms starting the season, every rotation goes through changes over the course of the season. I see only eight guys on the short list of starters in the Twins' organization, including May. That isn't too much depth and might not be enough.

Milone is a whole bunch more than just a "depth guy". He doesn't throw hard, but he's effective, and has been since he was called up to the majors. Further, he's 28 IIRC, less than a year older than Gibson. Teams need a lot more than five pitchers. This year only Gibson made it through the entire season without missing a start. The younger guys will get their chance and really that is two or three guys--Duffey, Berrios and perhaps May if you count him as a rotation arm.

I thought Gibson's troubles stemmed almost totally from command issues. When he was sharp, he threw a lot of "good strikes", when not sharp, he got behind on a lot of batters and threw too many ball down the middle. I like Gibson a lot and think he'll be better next season.

I want to say that Hicks looked like a major leaguer this season. He made real progress. However, it leaves the club a bit thin in the power department if Hicks and Rosario are the corner OFs. That said, I think Hicks is the logical outfielder to trade. He's shown himself capable defensively for parts of three seasons (about a season and a half of playing time) and hit well enough last year to be a center fielder. He just turned 26, so he should get better, but his star isn't as bright of Buxton's. I don't think Hicks will ever hit enough to be a regular corner outfielder. If the Twins are relatively sure that Buck will be what he's projected to be, trade Hicks this offseason.

I have him as the starting right fielder next year, making Torii all the more expendable. If Plouffe were to be traded, it would leave an opportunity for Arcia and Vargas to compete for DH at-bats. I'd like to know what happened last season. I also wonder if the shift from right to left had anything to do with his problems.

I think Nunez is a "tweener". He's not a starter, but not an ideal bench player either, particularly for the Twins, because he hits right handed. He will get a raise this year, if he is tendered. I would hope the Twins could deal him, perhaps for another utility type. However, it wouldn't surprise me if he were non-tendered, despite his nice year this year.

Right off the bat the five free agents should be subtracted. That makes 37. Several candidates for non-tender: Fien, Boyer, Nunez, Robinson. DFA candidates: Darnell, Achter, O'Rourke, Thompson, one of Pinto, Fryer, Herrmann. My SWAG (guess) is that four or five will be subtracted in that manner. That will allow seven or eight to be added before the Rule V draft.

I don't think it's fair to judge Nolasco in a meaningless game. He hasn't been healthy for most of his two seasons. Also, I'll admit that he's made it damn tough to like him. He has at times seemed arrogant, disinterested and unhappy, all while making maximum money for his resumé. He's been a decent pitcher in the past and he hasn't put many innings on his arm for two years. It isn't out of the realm for him to come back and be effective next year.

Many considerations here: 1) Torii will be 41 a midseason of 2016. Is it possible he could fall off a cliff sometime. I suspect that a longer deeper drought and a lower high would both be possible. Hunter's overall numbers were below average, thanks mostly to a long slump sometime after the All-Star break running until late August. 2) Are there adequate backups in case one of the projected starters struggles or is injured? I'm projecting an outfield of Hicks flanked by Arcia and Rosario to start the season. That leaves Kepler and Buxton in AAA as likely replacements, both with a chance to force their way into the lineup before the All-Star break. 3) How much would Hunter's absence mean in the clubhouse? He had a positive effect noted by almost everyone connected to the club. Can others step up? My final take is that the club could and should let Torii go, hopefully into retirement. It was a good signing by Ryan (albeit expensive), but one year is enough.

If Plouffe isn't traded or if Hunter returns, it will be tough to shoehorn Vargas onto the roster. I'm not sure on his number of options remaining, but I'm pretty sure he can be optioned, so he could go down to Rochester again replaced by someone like Hunter.

OK and good luck to all. The eight least-used players since 9/1 plus Escobar playing second. I hope the Blue Jays don't get too bent out of shape over the lineup, but heck the Twins couldn't beat the Royals with their backs to the wall, why not try the freshest lineup they could come up with?

I hope he rides into the sunset after his success in 2015. With the Twins eliminated, the best possible scenario is for Hunter to say that he helped take the club to the verge of the promised land, but like Moses, he can't go himself. Hunter has helped this team this year, but IMHO, but that is no guarantee for the same in 2016. If he would want to be a coach, I would think that would be wonderful. If he just wants to go to Dallas and retire, so be it. I appreciate what he's done, but (again) IMHO, it is time for him to move on.

Rather than editing, I'll comment on my own blog entry. I wrote this about two weeks ago and didn't publish until the last day of the regular season when the Twins' fate had been determined. No real changes to make, but I'm more in favor of new blood for a left handed reliever, rather than re-signing one of Cotts/Duensing. Also, with the struggles of Dozier and Plouffe noted, perhaps it would be good to have a true utility guy to fill in for them throughout the season. I guess Santana could fill that bill. I understand he has played second in winter ball. I'm pretty sure both Dozier and Plouffe would have benefited from a few more days off over the course of the season.

The Twins will enter 2016 after recording their best record since 2010. They have added several young players, most of whom are here to stay. As of today, they have some gaps, but overall have a decent team returning for next year. Four players are slated to be free agents--Mike Pelfrey, Torii Hunter, Brian Duensing, and Neal Cotts. Perhaps a player or two will be non-tendered. Candidates would be Casey Fien, Eduardo Nuñez, and Blane Boyer. Here is my current projection for the Opening Day 2016 Twins. It will have no rookies making their debuts and no trade acquisitions and I will assume that only one free agent is re-signed, either Cotts or Duensing. Pitchers: (12)--Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, Tommy Milone, Kyle Gibson, Ervin Santana, Tyler Duffey, Ryan Pressly, Alex Meyer, Cotts or Duensing, Trevor May, Kevin Jepsen, and Glen Perkins. Catchers: (2)--Kurt Suzuki and Chris Herrmann. Infielders: (8)--Kennys Vargas, Danny Santana, Eduardo Nuñez, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Trevor Plouffe and Miguel Sano Outfielders: (3)--Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks, and Eddie Rosario Some of these predictions will look pretty silly, I'm sure. I expect Oswaldo Arcia to get a last chance to be a productive player. This along with Byron Buxton's poor offensive showing at the close of 2015 will be enough to get Buxton more AAA time. I would expect he will be patrolling center field before Memorial Day. Another candidate to make the team would be Max Kepler, who probably needs some time in AAA, but before 2016 is over will have a regular spot on the club. The backup outfielders would be the backup infielders and perhaps Escobar and I think it won't be long before an outfielder is promoted. I have Nuñez surviving another spring. He has had a good year in 2015. He's a pretty good hitter, has some speed and defensive versatility. It is very possible the Twins will choose to go another way with that roster spot. I have youngsters Vargas and Santana as bench players. I'm pretty sure Vargas has an option, so he could easily not make the team, but if Trevor Plouffe is traded, current DH Sano becomes the third baseman and Vargas could be the primary DH. Backup catcher is a problem. The usual suspects from this season appear, but perhaps Stuart Turner will hit enough to bring his strong defense to the majors. I don't expect it on Opening Day, but I think it will happen sometime in 2016. Three starting pitchers have long-term contracts. Until and unless they are shown to be ineffective beyond repair when healthy, they are in the rotation. The best starters then are Milone and Gibson. That leaves the heralded JO Berrios to spend some more time in AAA, which would also be a smart business decision. I have listed Duffey as a bullpen option, despite his good work in the last quarter of the 2015 season and Trevor May as a big bullpen arm. Taylor Rogers could convert to to relief and take a spot I've given to Duensing/Cotts. The Twins also could go with O'Rourke, more of a pure LOOGy. I think Ryan Pressly had an underrated season before getting injured and my hope is that Alex Meyer has found it as a relief pitcher--he's been effective for the last several weeks. Meyer, May, Jepsen, and Perkins could be a very effective game-closing combination. I didn't list Casey Fien or Blane Boyer, veterans who have performed quite well this season, and in Fien's case for several seasons. Unfortuanately for them, their stuff doesn't play as well in this high-velocity, high strikeout bullpen era.

I certainly want to see Kepler and Buxton out there today. Beyond that, I suppose Santana deserves a start after his first pinch hit this year. Mauer and Hunter? Well, if Torii isn't coming back, I suppose it would be nice for him to get an at-bat, hopefully get on and be pinch-run for. I don't know how many people come to see Mauer play any more, but he still probably leads the team in jersey sales.

On Boyer's throw: He was next to the line and still moving that way when trying to throw. He had no path to throw the ball unless he got it over Cain's shoulder or head. Bloopers, nubbers, line drives, hit by pitch or walk--the Twins couldn't get Cain out.

Worst two throws I've seen Rosario make.

I'll say it now. The Twins can't get Cain out when it matters.