stringer bell

Walker will be able to win a job this spring, pretty much as Dozier did in 2013.

I don't have any stats to back it u, but i have seen some incremental change in Rosario's selectivity. He has gotten ahead more and thus gotten better pitches to hit. I doubt Rosario will ever walk much, but if he forces the pitcher to throw strikes, he will improve. As far as the ill-advised throw, Eddie has done that several times. At what point is it too many poor decisions? Perhaps Rosario crossed that threshold last night.

I mentioned errors and then discounted them, more or less. I agree they aren't the true measure of a defender (a couple of statues at first have enjoyed errorless or nearly so seasons) but OTOH, a player with a really high number of errors is almost certainly not a good defender. The breakdown for Polanco is 5 errors at short, 3 at third, and 1 at second.

I though Soriano hit 42 that year. Well, maybe a few were as a PH, DH or outfielder. Two of Dozier's 39 came in one of the two or three games where he DHed, so his total as a 2B is 37. I'd love to see him set that record.

I haven't seen a red flag either. I just saw that he had committed nine errors already, but that is only a small measure of overall performance. He's not an embarrassment, for sure IMHO, but he might settle in to be below average. It looks to me like he has enough arm to play short, I didn't believe that was the case when he was called up this time.

Technically, he won't go on the DL, but 2016 has been injury-filled. His injury record should be something to consider when deciding to tender Plouffe or not.

As I said earlier, take a look at Robbie Cano from mid 2014 until July 1st 2015. I can't be sure on the exact interval, but he was lousy for most of a year (doing this from memory). Bad slumps happen to good players. For a long time, the longest position player hitless streak by a Twin belonged to a pretty good hitter-Butch Wynegar. I think minor injuries figure into diminished performance, as well. I don't believe Dozier was completely healthy at the conclusion of last year.

Let me preface what will undoubtedly be a long entry by saying I am a Dozier fan. I have spoken to him at spring training a couple of times and like the young man. I believe he has been the Twins MVP for each of the last four seasons, including this one, and I have no doubt that he is the team's best player at this point. Certainly he isn't flawless, but the Twins need more players like Brian Dozier, not fewer. Over the course of this long, horrible season, Brian Dozier has often been a hot topic of conversation in Twins Territory. He isn't shy about stepping up to a microphone, my wife and daughters think he's good-looking and he's been a regular with the club as their second baseman for four years. If someone casually follows the Twins, he knows who Dozier is, so it figures that he would be a topic of conversation. Let's see why Dozier has been discussed so much and what I think should be the conclusion of the topic: First of all, when the season started, Dozier couldn't get it going. After a bad second half in 2015, Dozier came out of the gate slow in 2016. Through all of April and May, Dozier barely reached .200 and the signature power was lacking. Had the league figured him out? Was the 28 year old (turned 29 in mid-May) regressing already? Should he be benched or put at the bottom of the order? My thought, then and now, was that it is a long season. If a guy is a good player, he'll come out of a funk. Robbie Cano had a similar stretch at the end of 2014 and beginning of 2015 and Cano might be a Hall-of-Famer. Along for the ride early in the season were the questions of whether BD was too pull-happy and if he used the whole field, would he be a more consistent and productive hitter. My thought was that Dozier needed to be able to hit the ball with authority when he was pitched away and as the season has progressed, he has accumulated some oppo hits and several to the middle of the field, the key being that he hit the ball hard, not lazy popups or routine fly balls. Moving on, Dozier has spent most of the season hitting #1 or #2. Many have thought it wasn't ideal for a guy whose calling card is big power to hit first or second. My thought then was that the Twins simply didn't have a better option. Dozier takes some of the longest at-bats on the team, he's walked a fair amount since arriving in the majors and he's a good base runner who doesn't clog the bases for those behind him. Ideally, he should have hit lower in the order to make a few more of his homers multi-run shots and I think that where Dozier hits in the lineup in 2017 will be a hot controversial topic if he is in a Twins' uniform next year. As the season rolled toward the All-Star break, the calls to sell and rebuild the Twins included Dozier's name prominently. He had some value and the club is/was going nowhere in '16, so cashier him for a prospect or two and let Jorge Polanco handle second base. In June and July, Dozier recovered from his slow start. He put up a great line in June, posting an OPS for the month in excess of 1.000. He slowed in July, hitting only .240 but still putting up an OPS of .824. Trade Dozier at the deadline? Didn't happen and IMHO shouldn't have happened. He hasn't slowed down much since his monster June and with a team-friendly contract and relative youth, his value should only be higher in the off-season or at next year's trade deadline. Another topic that has emerged is defense. After a truly stout year in 2013, Dozier's defense has been categorized as below average by most metrics. While I don't believe Dozier is elite defensively, my eyes tell me he is in the average range. He makes a few outstanding plays (probably more than any other Twins player) and doesn't get to some balls he should, perhaps because of shifting, maybe because the position of shortstop has been in flux since he became a second baseman, maybe because in three of the last four years, the team never had a shot at contention. I don't know. In checking BB Ref, Dozier lags in zone rating but is above average in runs saved. I see it as a wash, making Dozier average in the field. I'm waiting for someone to refute this, but in the final analysis, defense probably is an "eyes of the beholder" topic. Since the All-Star break, Brian Dozier has been en fuego. He's hitting .320, with an OPS of 1.091 and an MLB-leading 21 homers. I guess that puts to rest the "first half player" meme that was circulating among the diehard fans who remained. The question that stems from his performance in both the cold April and May and his elite performance since is what to expect going forward. I have turned over in my mind what the most likely trajectory of Dozier's career figures to be. One extreme is Dan Uggla, who like Dozier wasn't highly regarded, got a chance in his mid-twenties and became a star in large part because of his power numbers. Uggla fell off a cliff in his early thirties. An opposing example is Jeff Kent. Kent was an okay player, but not even a full-time regular until he was 29. Starting from age 30, Kent won an MVP, was an All-Star five times with three different teams and posted OPS+ numbers over 119 every year until he was 39. These seem to be the extremes for power-hitting second basemen. Is Dozier going to be productive for most of another decade or is regression going to meet him around his 30th birthday? My answer is that no one knows for sure. It appears to me that Dozier has made adjustments to become a more complete hitter without diminishing his best asset--home run power. This makes him a candidate to sustain high-end performance, although his work from mid-2015 through May of this year give a good argument that he could turn into a pumpkin at any time. In the last few weeks as the tumult in my life has moved Twins baseball onto the back burner, I've managed to check the box scores, cluck over the disastrous pitching and watch highlights of games. Dozier has been front and center continuing his power surge. He now projects to exceed 40 homers and if he hits just one more long ball, he will have hit more in a single season than any Twin since Harmon in 1970. 40 homers would be a Top Ten season in franchise history dating back to the Senators who started playing at the turn of the 20th century. Only Harmon and Roy Sievers (once) have ever hit 40 homers in a single season in franchise history. Dozier is projected to score and drive in over 100 runs, also a rare feat, especially for a guy who has hit first or second most of the season. He may or may not make 40 homers, 100 RBIs or 100 runs, but on such a bad team those numbers stand out big and bold. Although I'm not a big fan of WAR, it does represent a quick and dirty assessment of value and Dozier's 5.6 WAR for this season is in the Top Ten in the league. Because the season has been so bad, I don't think Dozier has gotten the attention he deserves for his huge season. He won't win a Silver Slugger or MVP, he won't win the HR championship or set any other records, so there hasn't been any national coverage, but his overall season and particularly his production since June have been off the charts. Now in the season's final month, most Twins fans are thinking about the future (with good reason). Augmenting a terrible rotation is Priority One and trading Brian Dozier to get pitching help makes sense, since his value should be at an all-time high. This argument is buttressed by the play of Polanco, who has hit over .300, showed good on-base skills, but a questionable glove at short or third. I believe Jorge Polanco is best suited to second base and I believe adding him for Dozier wouldn't be all bad since Polanco is a switch hitter and wouldn't be prone to long slumps with his swing and approach. However, unless the payoff is monumental, Brian Dozier should be the Twins second baseman next year. He has had a season for the ages despite the wreckage around him, he's only 29 and if the last 100 days are an indication, he might get even better. Finally, he's been a solid citizen off the field. If the club wants somebody as the face of the franchise, they could do worse than Mr. Dozier. Just a couple more thoughts before I summarize--Dozier has been durable. Since becoming the team's second baseman, he hasn't been disabled and has missed only a handful of games with injuries. Secondly, my observation is that he is a good teammate. He doesn't sulk, cheers for his mates, appears to like their company off the field (loved the State Fair video) and despite having strong religious views, doesn't put that in the face of his teammates or the media. I have mentioned many of these thoughts in previous threads on the forums of Twins Daily. I find this player to be fascinating, especially in light of his minor league career and low status when drafted. I think Brian Dozier is a fine player who hasn't gotten the appreciation he deserves for this, his best season. I will continue to be a Dozier fan, even if he is traded, but hopefully he continues as a Minnesota Twin. In the event that he is traded, I will be pulling for the players acquired in return and hope they make the Twins better. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson- USAToday. image of brian Dozier View full article

Dozier's homers are official. Time to take care of some pressing matters. Nice hanging with TD denizens for a spell!

Here's something for Rosario to remember--you get a lot better pitches to hit when you don't swing at pitches out of the zone.

Actually blue gave a pretty high strike there.

Had to protect those first two by getting the game to the fifth.

I said in my blog entry that he wouldn't win a Silver Slugger, maybe I should reconsider.

I'm concerned about Dozier's 36th homer. We've been hearing lots of thunder and seeing some rain. Is there foul weather headed towards Target Field?

Not part of the problem.

I wholeheartedly agree Chief. I wrote a blog on Dozier, for those who can't get enough about the Twins #2.

It is fun to see youngsters Sano and Buxton both hitting. IMHO, success in 2016 was predicated on All-Star performance from these two a la Lindor and Correa, but they struggled as 23 year olds often do. Add to that the complete meltdown of the pitching staff and you have a disaster. I do think the 2017 Twins will score plenty of runs and hit a large number of homers. They absolutely need to get to the middle of pitching stats. They have allowed more than 100 runs more than the next worst staff. No one should be safe on the pitching staff.

Let me preface what will undoubtedly be a long entry by saying I am a Dozier fan. I have spoken to him at Spring Training a couple of times and like the young man. I believe he has been the Twins MVP for each of the last four seasons (counting this one) and I have no doubt that he is the team's best player at this point. Certainly, he isn't flawless, but the Twins need more players like Brian Dozier, not less. Over the course of this long, horrible season, Brian Dozier has often been a hot topic of conversation in Twins Territory. He isn't shy about stepping up to a microphone, my wife and daughters think he's good-looking and he's been a regular with the club as their second baseman for four years. If someone casually follows the Twins, they know who Dozier is, so it figures that he would be a topic of conversation. Let's see why Dozier has been discussed so much and what I think should be the conclusion for the topic: First of all, as the Twins started the season, Dozier couldn't get it going. After a bad second half in 2015, Dozier came out of the gate slow in 2016. Through all of April and May, Dozier barely reached .200 and the signature power was lacking. Had the league figured him out? Was the 28 year old (turned 29 in mid-May) regressing already? Should he be benched or put at the bottom of the order? My thought, then and now, was that it is a long season. If a guy is a good player, he'll come out of a funk. Robbie Cano had a similar stretch at the end of 2014 and beginning of 2015 and Cano might be a Hall-of-Famer. Along for the ride early in the season was the question whether BD was too pull-happy and if he used the whole field, he would be a more consistent and productive hitter. My thought was that Dozier needed to be able to hit the ball with authority when he was pitched away and as the season has progressed, he has accumulated some oppo hits and several to the middle of the field, the key being that he hit the ball hard, not a lazy popup or routine fly ball. Moving on, Dozier has spent most of the season hitting #1 or #2. Many have thought it wasn't ideal for a guy whose calling card is big power for his position to hit first or second. My thought then was that the Twins simply didn't have a better option. Dozier takes some of the longest at-bats on the team, he's walked a fair amount since arriving in the majors and he's a good base runner who doesn't clog the bases for those behind him. Ideally, he should have hit lower in the order to make a few more of his homers multi-run shots and I think that where Dozier hits in the lineup in 2017 will be a hot controversial topic if he is in a Twins' uniform next year. As the season rolled toward the All-Star break, the call to sell and rebuild the Twins included Dozier's name prominently. He had some value and the club is/was going nowhere in '16, so cashier him for a prospect or two and let Jorge Polanco handle second base. In June and July, Dozier recovered from his slow start. He put up a great line in June, posting an OPS for the month in excess of 1.000, he slowed in July, hitting only .240 but still putting up an OPS of .824. Trade Dozier at the deadline? Didn't happen and IMHO shouldn't have happened. He hasn't slowed down much since his monster June and with a team-friendly contract and relative youth, his value should only be higher in the off-season or at next year's trade deadline. Another topic that has emerged is defense. After a truly stout year in 2013, Dozier's defense has been categorized as below average by most metrics. While I don't believe Dozier is elite defensively, my eyes tell me he is in the average range. He makes a few outstanding plays (probably more than any other Twins player) and doesn't get to some balls he should, perhaps because of shifting, maybe because the position of shortstop has been in flux since he became a second baseman, maybe because in three of the last four years, the team never had a shot at contention. I don't know. In checking BB Ref, Dozier lags in zone rating, but is above average in runs saved. I see it as a wash, making Dozier average in the field. I'm waiting for someone to refute this, but in the final analysis, defense probably is an "eyes of the beholder" topic. Since the All-Star break, Brian Dozier has been en fuego. He's hitting .320, with an OPS of 1.091 and a mlb-leading 21 homers. I guess that puts to rest the "first half player" meme that was circulating among the diehard fans remaining. The question that stems from his performance both the cold April and May and his elite performance since is what to expect going forward. I have turned over in my mind what the most likely trajectory of Dozier's career figures to be. One extreme is Dan Uggla, who like Dozier wasn't highly regarded, got a chance in his mid-twenties and became a star in large part because of his power numbers. Uggla fell off a cliff in his early thirties. An opposing example is Jeff Kent. Kent was an okay player, but not even a full-time regular until he was 29. Starting from age 30, Kent won an MVP, was an All-Star five times with three different teams and posted OPS+ numbers over 119 every year until he was 39. This seems to be the extremes for power-hitting second basemen. Is Dozier going to be productive for most of another decade or is regression going to meet him around his 30th birthday? My answer is that no one knows for sure. It appears to me that Dozier has made adjustments to become a more complete hitter without diminishing his best asset--home run power. IMHO, it makes him a candidate to sustain high-end performance, although the end of 2015 and April-May of this year give a good argument that he could turn into a pumpkin at any time. In the last few weeks as the tumult in my life has moved Twins baseball on the back burner, I've managed to check the box scores, cluck over the disastrous pitching and watch highlights of games. Dozier has been front and center continuing his power surge. He now projects to exceed 40 homers and if he hits just one more long ball, he will have hit more in a single season than any Twin since Harmon in 1970. 40 homers would be a Top Ten season in franchise history dating back to the Senators who started playing at the turn of the 20th century. Only Harmon and Roy Sievers (once) have ever hit 40 homers in a single season in franchise history. Dozier is projected to score and drive in over 100 runs, also a rare feat, especially for guy who has hit first or second most of the season. He may or may not make 40 homers, 100 RBI or 100 runs, but on such a bad team those numbers stand out big and bold. Although I'm not a big fan of WAR, it does represent a quick and dirty assessment of value and Dozier's 5.6 WAR for this season is in the Top Ten in the league. Because the season has been so bad, I don't think Dozier has gotten the attention he deserves for his huge season. He won't win a Silver Slugger or MVP, he won't win the HR championship or set any other records, so there hasn't been any national coverage, but his overall season and particularly his production since June has been off the charts. Now in the season's final month, most Twins fans are thinking about the future (with good reason). Augmenting a terrible rotation is Priority One and trading Brian Dozier to get pitching help makes sense, since his value should be at an all-time high. This argument is buttressed by the play of Polanco, who has hit over .300, showing good on-base skills, but a questionable glove at short or third. I believe Jorge Polanco is best suited to second base and I believe adding him for Dozier wouldn't be all bad since Polanco is a switch hitter and wouldn't be prone to long slumps with his swing and approach. However, unless the payoff is monumental, Brian Dozier should be the Twins second baseman next year. He has had a season for the ages despite the wreckage around him, he's only 29 and if the last 100 days are an indication, he might get even better. Finally, he's been a solid citizen off the field. If the club wants somebody as the face of the franchise, they could do worse than Mr. Dozier. Just a couple more thoughts before I summarize--Dozier has been durable. Since becoming the team's second baseman, he hasn't been disabled and has missed only a handful of games with injuries. Secondly, my observation is that he is a good teammate. He doesn't sulk, cheers for his mates, appears to like their company off the field (loved the State Fair video) and despite having strong religious views, doesn't put that in the face of his teammates or the media. I have mentioned many of these thoughts in previous threads on the forums of Twins Daily. I find this player to be fascinating, especially in light of his minor league career and low status when drafted. I think Brian Dozier is a fine player who hasn't gotten the appreciation he deserves for this, his best season. I will continue to be a Dozier fan, hopefully as he continues to be a Minnesota Twin, but even if he's traded. In the event that he is traded, I will be pulling for the players acquired in return and hope they make the Twins better.

Just for a little perspective, I checked espn's baseball site after today's game. Their end of the year projection for Dozier is 40 HR, 101 RBI and 103 Runs. How many Twins have ever had that kind of season? Since the only one to hit 40 homers is Harmon, he has to be the only one. Dozier is having a monster season and even if he doesn't get to those round numbers, fans should realize what kind of hitter he has been this season. I checked. Harmon did it twice-'67 and '69 (MVP year)

Red Wings just lost, so we will see how many the Twins call up.

I'll submit this now--I think Gibson has been pitching hurt or injured most of the second half of the year. The velocity, command and movement are all less than they were last year. i was going to say this before his CG effort against Atlanta, but that shut me up 'til now.

OK, I've made it clear I'm skeptical of defensive metrics, but I'll cite a couple here. According to Baseball Reference, this season Dozier is -3 in Total Zone Fielding Runs above average, but is +3 in Defensive Runs Saved. I understand this to be two different metrics and the net result would be he's an average fielder. IMHO, that is about right. I admit I could be wrong about what the metrics say, but this agrees with my eyeball assessment of the Twins best player. I'm also not a big believer in WAR, but Dozier is at 5.3 at last check. That isn't a "good player", that is much better than that.

Without question, this year's Twins team is a great disappointment. Looking at the record since 2010, it is obvious that something is wrong, or more likely many things are wrong. It is surprising, but true, that the Twins would let the two components of run suppression, pitching and defense, slide so far. They were able to stay in the middle of the pack in runs allowed with good defense and a walk-limiting pitch-to-contact pitching staff. As the tide has shifted to 95+ mph fastballs and swing and miss stuff, the Twins have been behind for years. To couple with that, they have regularly used far too many poor defenders. The second pitching factor is that acquisitions just haven't panned out. Ervin Santana has been pretty good for a year and a half, but he missed half a season and is looking at middle-aged regression in the second half of his contract. Phil Hughes had an outstanding first season, but since signing an extension, he's been pedestrian or worse and now out for most of this season. Mike Pelfrey was bad for two years and fifth starterish for one season. Ricky Nolasco was alternately hurt and poor, with an occasional decent start thrown in just so that we know he shouldn't be this bad. Other guys acquired like Tommy Milone and Vance Worley haven't lived up to their billings either. Finally, there has been a lack of development of great prospects. The Twins have had three much-heralded prospects debut in 2015 and 2016 and while the hope is all three will be perennial All-Stars, so far the results haven't been very good. JO Berrios has dominated AAA, but he's been brutal as a major leaguer. Byron Buxton has been rated the top prospect in all of baseball, but hasn't managed to provide enough offense to stay with the Twins. Finally, it looked last year like Miguel Sano might go directly from AA to superstardom, but since September of last year, he hasn't hit enough and he's been found wanting at two defensive positions. There have been other misfires by the front office. Byung-ho Park seems to be a really bad fit with the Twins. Earlier in the bad run, the Twins were counting on Nishi to play middle infield. It is also glaring how few pitchers have developed to make a contribution to the Twins. As I said earlier, something is wrong somewhere.

Thoughts on a few potential call ups: Beresford is a nice AAA player, but all he is is a younger version of Doug Bernier. John Ryan Murphy is younger than Mitch Garver and Garver has just reached AAA. Berrios is blocking Berrios.