stringer bell
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Everything posted by stringer bell
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Not exactly right Jimmer. 50+ Pence will confirm a nominee. Clarence Thomas received less than 60 votes when he was confirmed, for example. However, to halt debate requires 60 votes. I believe 8 or 9 Democrats have said that they will vote to halt debate (unless things change), so the filibuster will not hold.
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Hence the GOP moves to make it harder to vote--Photo ID, registration scrubbing, limiting polling places and hours.
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I thought it should be the issue for endangered Republican incumbents, but it really didn't hit home with the undecided I guess. As someone who likely was going to vote blue, I thought this was the biggest outrage of the outrageous behavior of Republicans in Congress, but it seemed to motivate the Republican base most of all. I don't usually do this but I think the media soft-peddled this and several other instances of obstruction by sitting Republicans. I would think it should have been featured repeatedly that a perfectly moderate Supreme Court choice was not even given the opportunity for a hearing because.....Republicans viewed that Supreme Court as theirs.
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Call me cynical, but except for a few principled conservatives, right wingers only hate executive actions when a Democrat does it. I suspect a large majority of people who consider themselves Tea Party are delighted with Trump's actions.
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Currently watching Bremer with Tori's, Cuddy and the Hawk. Great stuff.
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Let me tell you about my work. I worked with and now supervise 12 employees. We don't talk about politics much and never have. However, having been around most of these people for more than a decade, I know where almost all of them stand. Barack Obama probably got a majority of our votes. I don't think Clinton got a single one. This is a group that, if only voting for economic self-interest, should have all voted for the Democrat, but the 3 Gs (God, guns and gays) work against that. There is some fear and loathing of Muslim immigrants (one employee is a Somali immigrant) and distaste for those "on the dole" (welfare, disability etc). The thing these employees have in common is lack of education-my replacement has a college degree, but no one else does. They lapped up much of Trump's BS without question and seemed entranced by Trump's celebrity, holding Hillary to a much higher standard for some reason. My best friend at work retired about a year ago. She made it known that she supported Obama in '08 and '12, but for the last week has been posting things in support of Trump on social media. Sandy (my friend) would be classified as a labor Democrat (her husband is a retired union guy) and she too was suspicious of immigrants, especially non-whites. To summarize, I think for reasons that have been discussed upthread, it seems Republicans and Trump in particular have taken the white working-class demographic, despite ample evidence that conservatives really offer them no better alternatives.
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Cuddyer, MacPhail Named To Twins Hall of Fame
stringer bell replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Cuddyer is my all-time favorite Twin, so I'm glad he's in the team Hall of Fame. However, I think there are some "classic" Twins like Cesar Tovar who should be inducted and hey, Cuddy could have waited a couple years. -
Republicans have fewer member and bigger fractures in their party, when when it is time to vote, it's "my party right or wrong" and they show up. I think that Citizens United has helped them a lot (it empowered corporations and unions-notice what they have been doing to unions) and the timing worked perfectly for them when they swept everything in 2010 because it gave them control of so much redistricting.
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One factor that I can guarantee is that Trump will continue to provide fuel to sustain the distaste for him. He is so thin-skinned and narcissistic that he will continue to insult people and tell gigantic untruths (alternate facts, lies).
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The dance between the Rs and Trump is going to be very interesting. While there are huge differences in their views on trade and "the little guy", there is much agreement on slashing regulations, limiting abortion and putting a hard-line right-winger on the Supreme Court, to name a few. The isolationism that Trump emphasized in his inauguration speech isn't standard Republicanism. On a different tangent, from my cave in SE Minnesota where I didn't see the news and catch up on social media until later, was this "Women's Day March" thing as big a deal as it looks like? From what I've seen, it hit all the right notes and millions participated. Where was this enthusiasm and fervor before the election?
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If the shoe were on the other foot, what would Republicans be doing if the winner of the presidential election had almost three million fewer votes, there was evidence of foreign government(s) influencing the election and the victor was as ungracious as Donald Trump? I think there would be rioting in the streets for sure.
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Running Down The Hall (Of Fame Ballot)
stringer bell replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Comments about those that didn't make it: Mussina-He'll probably go the "Blyleven route" and eventually get in the Hall. Qualified? IDK, he bet the Twins all the time. His numbers are very good. I think he's more qualified than some who have made it, but I can't say he absolutely belongs. Guerrero-Not a huge fan. As noted above there are several people in Vlad's range who haven't been treated kindly, but as close as he was this year, he is a shoo-in. I confess I probably saw the "old Vlad" and mostly remember an aging DH more than seeing Guerrero in his prime. Hoffman-I guess he'll get in next year, as well. He pretty quietly put up great numbers as a closer. I'm wondering what standard for relief pitchers there is as far as magic numbers (like 3000 hits and 500 homers for hitters). -
Running Down The Hall (Of Fame Ballot)
stringer bell replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I agree on the three selections. I think all three deserved admission and it took longer than it should have for both Raines and Bagwell. Yes, there are plenty of jerks that get to vote on Hall induction, but there were enough that made the right choices. Clemens and Bonds have sullied their records. They certainly performed at HOF level. I shed no tears that they were not included. -
Here's my take. According to polls, about half of the 46% that voted for Trump believed what he said--that Hillary belonged in jail, that Muslims should be kept out of the country and a wall built to keep out the Mexicans, that Obama was a Kenyan (and probably a Muslim) etc. The other 23% held their noses and voted for him, some to express their displeasure with "politics as usual", some to express their misgivings about where the country was headed, some because Trump was on the ballot as a Republican and some because they hated Hillary Clinton so much that they would vote for Donald Trump instead of her. Trump is going to disappoint many of those that aren't true believers. He seems to have no impulse control and his stew of opinions don't make any kind of ideological policy. Most of the Republicans in Congress weren't in Trump's base, but they are going along because they have all the power if they can get Trump's signature on bills. The coalition is fragile and neither the Republican establishment nor Donald Trump have anything close to support of half of the people. I expect Republicans will get a good share of their agenda codified in law. I also expect fireworks at some point, with President Trump in the middle of the fray.
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Didn't the Gophs destroy Shabazz & Co? I thought they won easily, but got killed in the next game.
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Stop By, Say Hi (Get To Know Us)
stringer bell replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I'm 62 years old and recently widowed, which is why I've contributed less in the last six months than before. I've been a Twins fan since they moved from DC and I've had favorites from every era. My all-time favorite is Michael Cuddyer, probably more for his off-field persona than his good career. The '87 and '91 seasons were special-the crowd waiting for the team after they beat Detroit in '87 has to be the pinnacle, even more than the events on the field. As I've grown older, my appreciation for the game has increased, as has my respect for the men and women who put organizations together. It's hard to put together a great organization, and even harder to sustain it. I grew up in the tiny town of Minnesota Lake, went to Southwest State for college and lived in and around Rochester for over 40 years. I used my Psychology degree in working with chemical dependency and adolescents with behavioral problems, but for the last 36 years I've worked with mail-25 years with the Postal Service and 11 years with the Mayo Clinic, where I manage their Mail Center. Outside of the Twins, I enjoy all sports, but I never consider another team as "we" or "us". I love to play golf and follow politics pretty closely. I have met several contributors to TD , including several mods and have enjoyed their company. I have gone to Spring Training four times and hope to make it again, but probably not in 2017. I would advise a trip to Fort Myers for any Twins fan.- 242 replies
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Basically what I'm saying is the structure of Trump's win is pretty unlikely and a hacked election would look much like this one does. It is remote that the Democrats can find both evidence of misdeeds and the votes to overturn Trump's election. However, a first step would be to uncover something in Wisconsin or Michigan, two states where the official margin was less than one percent.
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Agree 100%. It's extremely unlikely (I think I said .1%), but it is pretty unlikely to lose the popular vote by >2M, be consistently behind in all the polling in three states and be behind in the exit polls and win all three states. BTW, routine canvassing reduced Trump's margin by almost 5000 votes. The current difference stands at about 22,000.
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I guess they will proceed with a recount in Wisconsin. On balance, I say "good deal". I suppose there is less than a .1% chance that the state will be flipped, but Trump already has defied the odds. Clinton will win the popular vote and yet Trump has comfortably won the Electoral College. IMHO, that is akin to a guy hitting .220, but driving in 100 runs. It could happen, but a lot of things have to align for it to be so. Secondly, polling. I don't believe a single poll had Trump ahead in the three states after the first debate, and most of the leads were comfortable >5%. Thirdly, exit polling. IIRC as the polls closed in each of the states in question, Clinton has a lead in exit polling and yet she lost all three. For all of these things to line up and give Trump a clear victory seems about as unlikely as overturning a 20,000 vote deficit. If there is an outside force that caused this-hacking, some other computer manipulation-I darn sure want it discovered. If something is found in Wisconsin, maybe it occurred in other states.
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Leidner is probably a less-gifted Tim Tebow and Tebow got meaningful snaps almost entirely because of his physical gifts. Some NFL suspects have become solid pros, but developing accuracy this late in the game is a real long shot for Leidner.
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It isn't enough to be "not-Trump" and "we're not as crazy as Republicans". The party needs to really stand for something and have policies to back it up. Democrats have led the way on gay rights, reproductive rights, and are leading us towards marijuana legalization, but the economic programs could have been agreed to by Ronald Reagan.
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Greens are saying they will challenge. Some are urging Clinton to join.
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From the Democratic party perspective, I think Levi and Chief are right on the mark. As a believer in our democracy and a follower of elections, I'd like to see some guarantee that the will of the people was carried out. If there is something that demonstrates some fishy results, then take a look at it. It makes no sense to me that votes cannot be verified and if that is the case, something needs to be done to make sure that every vote is counted and counted accurately. I don't want to see this election stolen. The bar is set extremely high to undo the results and I think that is good, but if there is a pattern that shows wrongdoing, let's get to the bottom of it.
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With the Republicans in charge of everything, what are the chances that any election irregularities are investigated?
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Clinton is now more than 2M ahead in the popular vote. The margin of popular voting gives me pause as do the state results. Who had Trump ahead 5 in NC, 8 or 9 in Ohio and Iowa and with any kind of lead in PA, MI, or Wisconsin? Move those results to the polling average in the states and I bet Clinton's margin is about the 3.5% that most of the pollsters seemed to coalesce around in the last days.
