stringer bell

Okay, Celestino now has 137 career plate appearances, with 75 of them this year. His lifetime BABip is now .319, better than the league average of .299, but not really out of line. Having just seen him, I think Celestino is similar to a Whit Merrifield (right handed, doesn't fan much, uses the whole field, not much power). Merrifield's lifetime BABip is .324. My theory is that the 75 PAs is "normalized" by his poor performance on batted balls last year and that he should probably project at a pace similar to his lifetime stats--.252 BA, .676 OPS, 96 OPS+. Projecting those numbers forward for the remaining three-quarters of the season would give a .277 BA, 727 OPS and an OPS+ of about 106. Obviously this projection has a lot of variables, but those numbers out of Celestino this year (at age 23) would be pretty good. BBRef already has Celestino with 1.0 WAR. Not bad.

Miranda's value to the Twins at this moment is that he is an acceptable option at third base and first base. It is not like you hand a guy a first baseman's mitt and say "you're a first baseman". Other infield positions have some commonality, probably most is third base, but there is stuff to learn at each position and there have to be some skills. Kirilloff, for example, has long been projected as a good or better first baseman, while someone like Brent Rooker wasn't (despite that being his primary position in college). The Twins have identified Arraez as an infielder and rather than have him in left field, they have decided they would rather have him being an undersized first baseman. The word is that Gary Sanchez is taking grounders at first. Maybe this is a "break glass in case of emergency" thing or maybe they'll roll with it in games. I also noticed that, rather than move utilityman Nick Gordon to third base when Correa pinch hit for Miranda, the Twins used their last bench move and put Urshela in the game. That tells me that, in their minds, Nick Gordon isn't a third baseman. It would figure that if Miranda is sent back to the minors, there would have to be defensive flexibility both at third and first base. This kind of stuff fascinates me, like the fact that Kepler hasn't played left field, and the pecking order between Larnach and Kirilloff between left and right field (if both are manning a corner OF spot, it is Larnach is left and AK in right). Nick Gordon is now deemed an acceptable option at short and second and left and center, but has only played a few innings in right. The other day in Oakland, they brought Miranda in to play first base and moved Arraez to second rather than giving Miranda a couple innings at second. Circling back to the OP, Royce has gotten to stand at third and in left, hurray. Hopefully, he is working on alternate positions before the games. He's a great talent and I'd love to see him back in Minneapolis without another Correa injury.

Jorge Polanco isn’t hitting much either. Today was his first multi-hit in over a week and his overall numbers have suffered. It is pretty impressive that the Twins have won seven of nine with so little production from two of their best players.

Second guessing is fun. The results usually back up whatever assertion you are making. The fact of the matter is that there aren’t any certainties. A manager can go against every percentage and tendency and still succeed or on the flip side, they can have boatloads of stats favoring a move and fail. I’m sure Royals fans are second guessing their manager, but I don’t think he made a strategic error

I don’t think any professional concedes, but it’s a question of how many resources to commit. Duran, Pagán, Jax, Thielbar and Smith weren’t going to come in, leaving Canó and Megill in the sixth. Baldelli probably was planning to split the sixth, seventh and eighth between Canó and Megill. When the Twins cut the gap to one run, a higher leverage arm (Duffey) was put in.

What makes Duran special to me is that he is so often in the zone. Today he threw 17 pitches and 14 were strikes. ESPN had the Royals having a 99.5% chance of winning going into the eighth.

I didn't think he swung, but replay says.....maybe.

As they should.

Duran will have to get Benintendi out. Nice to get Merrifield out!

Bailey Ober and Yennier Cano are quite relieved right now.

Doubt it.

Hate to say this, but the Twins lose this 6-5.

Three called strikes that were outside the box.

Welcome back Trevor (unfortunately it was 2021 Trevor).

Going into this series, Santana, a switch hitter, had been basically helpless as a left handed hitter (he was the hitter up with the bases loaded). Secondly, the Twins currently only have one lefty in the 'pen.

I think Cano probably will be in St. Paul, maybe as soon as tomorrow. He's got to throw more strikes. Hitters can afford to be more selective when they're ahead on the count. Megill certainly throws hard enough. He needs to throw enough strikes and get more than the fastball over. Still, he has a chance, I think.

I've spent about two weeks in Austin this year. We walked into a couple of hole-in-the-wall barbeques walking around downtown and the food was excellent.

100 mph on one fastball. We've seen opponents make boneheaded plays. It's apparently the Twins' turn. I just saw Megill bend a breaking ball over the plate. If he can do that and throw 98-100 he might have a future.

Megill's brother started out hot for the Mets. I believe he's hit the injured list.

Can add Black's BBQ to the recommended list.

I don't think it will stay 1-0 for long.

Nice play be Miranda.

Sánchez has been pretty good lately, but I’d trade him in a heartbeat for Melendez.

Gar-ree does not have good speed.

One run shouldn’t be too much to overcome, but so far the baseball gods are favoring the Royals today.