stringer bell

Given the qualifications for the “title”, I think it will be Chacín. I’m pulling for someone to stake a claim to a bullpen spot. Thielbar and Hardy have the clearest path.

I don't see "ample time" for whover is the 13th position player. With the versatile switch-hitters (Gonzalez and Adrianza) on board, it will be tough to get substantial playing time for the last guy. Niether Astudillo nor Cave would provide a platoon advantage to many situations, unless Cave replaced Buxton in the lineup. Cave was very good last year versus same-handed pitching, but pretty bad in 2018. Unless he can put up reverse splits again this year, I don't see opportunities for him to get much time.

I agree with the comments above. For the role of 13th position player, Astudillo is the better fit, although he's not the better player. Most likely, both guys will be in the majors more than the minors due to injuries.

I think what happened with Arraez is indicative of what could happen if a starting outfielder goes down. I assume that Cave and the recalled player would share at bats for a week or so and if someone emerges (as Arraez did) they will continue to get regular at bats. I think the question will be how long the leash is before Plan B is invoked. What I'm saying is that if for example Wade were recalled for a Kepler injury, that both Cave and Wade would get more than half the starts for a couple weeks. If Cave flashed some power and hit well, he might ascend to being in the regular mix (same for Wade), but it might only be for a week or ten days. If Cave performed as he did through August 1st of last year, then the team might consider someone else for regular or near regular duty.

I'm not biased against Cave. I think he's a major league player, for sure. As I've said before, I see him as redundant to the 2020 Twins. Of course, that could change over the course of the season, but he's a bit of a hit-first corner outfielder. He doesn't offer game-changing speed or power and he's not an on-base machine, but he's not absent of any of those skills. If the Twins keep a fifth outfielder (counting Gonzalez as the fourth), I'd like to see a right handed hitter who handles lefties very well and/or really good speed and defense and trading Cave to get such a guy would make sense. I do know the Twins were negotiating to trade Cave in the off season and I think it makes sense given the current outfield situation combined with the prospects in the high minors.

This is a hypothetical. First of all, if Kirilloff were recalled for a Cave injury, it would infer that he is hitting very, very well, given that he'd get the call over Wade, Astudillo, Rooker and Larnach. Wade and Astudillo have big league experience and both Larnach and Rooker are older (Rooker by two years). It would also necessitate a 40-man roster move. I would think that Kirilloff would and should get at least four starts a week. That could be done by resting all the outfielders and occasionally Sanó/Cruz. It wouldn't make sense to sit a Top 50 prospect on the bench using service time. We really don't know if there will be a platoon or other advantage (for example AK might feast on fastballs) but if Kirilloff were recalled, he really would need to be in the lineup more often than not. All players are not created equal. It is the job of field staff and front office to weigh the various factors, including potential when making roster and playing time decisions. 40-man status, service time, contract, options all fit in somewhere and it complicates decisions for promotion and demotion. Getting back to Kirilloff, if the club decides to promote him early and start his service time clock, they definitely need to have him on the field a lot, if not every day.

I come down somewhere between you two (Chief and RB). I think every member of the team is important and each has a role to play. Beyond that, I recall many people giving credit to Tom Kelly for "putting players in a spot where they can succeed". The 2020 Twins appear to have a position player roster where there are nine regulars and will have a deep and versatile bench with Gonzalez and Adrianza adept at multiple positions and a pretty close to ideal platoon partner for Garver, in Avila. Baldelli's challenge will be to get the maximum out of the players he has. In order to get the maximum, he needs to get the bench players enough reps that they can help the team win games and he needs to give the "regulars" enough rest that they stay as fresh as possible throughout the season. What is the right number of games for each player? Difficult to answer in a vacuum, but it would seem that less than 150 is desirable for most. Another consideration is when to rest guys. It would make sense to rest them when the bench player has as good or better of a chance than the so-called regular. In the Garver/Avila scenario, it would make sense to give Avila at-bats against right handers, since he is stronger against them and Garver is weaker versus same-handed throwers. Switch hitters Adrianza and Gonzalez can also provide a platoon advantage in certain spots. Both Arraez and Polanco were weaker against left handed pitching and Ehire had a higher OPS against lefties than either player. Meanwhile Gonzalez hit lefties better than Rosario did. So a case could be made in those cases that against left handers, Adrianza and Gonzalez should get many, if not most starts. Right handed hitters Sanó and Donaldson will also need some days off, which would give either Adrianza and Gonzalez more at bats. I see no such edge for Cave over either corner outfielder and Jake isn't really a center fielder, so I'm still not convinced he will even get a spot on the roster. Beyond that, I really don't see him as an ideal fit for the 2020 Twins, even though he has put up satisfactory numbers so far in his career.

If Cave's role this year is "fourth outfielder", he needs to be able to help the club win if he is getting a start or two a week. Last year he did not do that. When Cave got more regular play (from August on when Buxton got 0 plate appearances) he did quite well. Based on that admittedly small sample (and his 2018 season) I see him as not that valuable to the 2020 Twins. If the Twins had two right handed hitting regular corner outfielders, I would see a decent role as something of a platoon with Cave getting plenty of starts versus right handers, but that is not the case.

Twins' "starting pitching depth" is for this year only. Odorizzi, Bailey, Hill and Chacín are all on one year contracts. No matter what happens to the team this year, there will be turnover next year. So, if any of these three guys has a good year, they will have a very good chance to be with the big club sometime in 2021. Beyond that, we all know that every club deals with injuries and ineffectiveness. Last year, the Twins used 30 pitchers. It is not unreasonable that they will use in excess of 20 again this year, so all three guys might at least get a shot this season.

Chacín technically is on a minor league contract, which means he could be sent to Rochester without optioning him. Most likely, he has an opt-out clause, which would mean either he's on the team or let go altogether. I think Chacín has the inside track on the fifth starter competition. If he doesn't perform, the Twins still have Dobnak, Smeltzer, and Thorpe available, along with the return of Pineda and Hill.

Jake Cave has had a nice year plus for the Twins. He has a total of 537 plate appearances, so basically full-time play for a year. Last year, he picked up his OBP and played the outfield corners much more frequently than center. in 2018, Cave was basically a regular from the point he was recalled and in 2019, Cave spent quite a bit of time on the bench until Buxton was injured and basically lost for the rest of the season. My problems with Cave are 1) it is my impression that he does far better when starting consistently, rather than getting a start or two per week. I don't have any stats to support this, but my memory is that he was unproductive until he get his shot at regular playing time in 2019. 2) Cave is redundant. He is a corner outfielder who hit left handed, not a superior defender and doesn't offer explosive speed. I really can't see that would favor Cave over Kepler or Rosario.

Between the lines, I had become a big fan of Marwin Gonzalez. I like the way he goes about his business on the field, never complained about moving around the diamond and was a good defender at multiple positions. Of course, I was also hoping he could have an encore of his career season in 2017. Off the field, I never heard much either positive or negative. Now we have verification that he participated in the scandal and he has expressed his regret. I guess I try to put myself in his situation and wonder if I'd do the same thing, particularly if everyone else was doing it. I'd love to say I would do the right thing, but I really don't know. I don't know what else Gonzalez can do, particularly when it wasn't just him. Also, he's no longer an Astro. I said earlier that the small price Gonzalez pays will be on his next contract. With career season nullified and also three years ago (four when he is a free agent), and with this scandal in the public, it is possible Gonzalez' career will be over after this contract or he will make considerably less money than he might have. Is it enough? Probably not. I suspect that cheating, in one form or another, is far more widespread than the general public knows. I guess those that get caught and express remorse do what most would do, no more no less. While I will forgive Gonzalez for what he did, I won't forget and I doubt I will continue to be a big fan of Marwin for his (most likely) final season with my favorite team. I will, however, hope that he helps the Twins win. I happen to believe the things Marwin provides will help the Minnesota Twins win games.

I doubt Chacín spends a day ay Rochester. Either he makes the rotation or they cut him loose, much like a young player who is out of options. That situation means he likely has the inside track for what is slated as the fifth spot in the rotation. He will have to show that 2019 is an outlier and that he isn't finished. I will predict here that one of the last two guys last in the rotation even when Pineda and later Hill are added to the available starters. Things happen and injuries or ineffectiveness from the three guys slated to front this year's rotation. As far as the last guy on the bench, I think it will be the versatile Astudillo over the redundant Cave and/or Wade. I expect that if one of Astudillo or Cave has a clearly superior spring, they will win the last spot, but I'll pick the Turtle.

Hamilton signed a couple of days ago with the Giants. I wanted him as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement for last year's postseason run. If the Twins are in a similar position this year, I think that would be a good move on or about August 31.

I don't want to sound all "sour grapes" on Graterol, but it is not a guarantee that he'll will be elite, even if he does stay healthy. The wipeout slider a triple-digit fastball are great, but we were saying the same thing about Fernando Romero. I wish Brusdar the best and hope he's real effective until the Dodgers play the Twins in the World Series. I wish that if the club was going to cashier a top prospect, they would have gotten top value, but Maeda is an intriguing arm and I think he will help this club this year.

Absolutely no reason to add Chacín until the last day before the Twins play their first regular season game. They now have a spot to claim someone who might help them, and with Hill going on the 60-day they'll essentially have two spots. Raley is an OF/1B. The Twins have higher rated prospects that play outfield corners and first base. I think Raley will reach the majors this year and he might be a pretty good player, but the Twins have Rooker, Larnach and Kirilloff.

The other thing on Maeda is that he's under contract for four more years, with minimal financial risk. At best he makes $13M a year and earns it by being a functional part of the rotation for the next four years. At worst, he costs just north of $12M and the Dodgers gave the Twins that much money anyway. Yes, the Twins traded the potential of Graterol, but they get a surer bet in Maeda.

I have to disagree. This club is firmly on a win-now path. They have added depth in their rotation and versatility with Maeda. With both Pineda and Hill out for more than the first month, they have veteran options and it is entirely possible that some of the veteran options they have acquired will stay in the rotation when (first) Pineda and (then) Hill become available. For the first two-thirds of 2019, the Twins had the five-man rotation start more than 90% of their games. I doubt they will have the same fortune this year. I don't want to dump on prospects, but Dobnak, Thorpe and Smeltzer are not top prospects. They did each have moments last year and I think it wouldn't be a disaster if any of them made the rotation to start the season. However, to count on them and need them to be positive contributors is not the blueprint of a team that is trying to win a championship.

Even though Graterol is younger, has MLB experience and throws harder, I believe the Twins think that Balazovic has more value because his arm can stand up to the rigors of starting long-term. I am not convinced that Graterol is going to be great this year and I am also not convinced he'll stay healthy even as a bullpen pitcher. He might be special and there is no guarantee that he won't be a starter. Time will tell.

Well Chacín will now have to be better than Smeltzer, Dobnak and Thorpe. Now there will be a bullpen opening for either Stashak or Romero, or one of the non-roster left handers.

Bobby Kielty was one of the guys I had an irrational affection for. He never amounted to more than a platoon guy and never became the five tool slugger I envisioned. I hated it when they traded Kielty for noodle-armed Shannon Stewart (and I was totally wrong).

Reading the MLB Trade Rumors writeup, it appears that Maeda could earn an additional $10M in incentives based on starts and innings. $13M per year is hefty, but it also provides protection in the event of injury or ineffectiveness. $13M is not too much to pay for a reliable 1-3 starter. He is under contract through his age 35 season. I really hope this trade pans out as the Twins could be looking to restock their rotation in 2021 no matter what the results for 2020 are.

I've also wondered about Graterol's body. type He's not tall and he weighs 265 according to the Twins web site. I'm not calling him out for conditioning etc., but questioning whether a guy with that type of body can be durable while throwing triple digits.

We shall see.I have not been as high on Graterol as most here. I just looked up Maeda on BBRef--he's a pretty solid arm in his early 30s. This club needs starters most of all and getting a guy for four years might to worth it.

First and foremost, it isn't fair to judge a pitcher from just 27 innings, as you said. Secondly, IMHO, the swing and miss rate negates the low spin rate. He's getting swings and misses and Ks. If I recall correctly, Thorpe seemed to be a victim of nerves leading to to crooked numbers. The other thing I remember is sailing along and then encountering an inning where he couldn't get anyone out. Bad luck? Different stuff out of the stretch? Lack of trust in his stuff? Regarding FIP and xFIP, some pitchers never can pitch to what would be predicted for them--Ricky Nolasco comes to mind--but usually ERA tends to normalize near those indicators. If Thorpe could pitch close to those marks, I think he'll be an asset for this year and years to come.