stringer bell

I thought Mauer was shaky early at first, mostly on popups and ground balls hit to him (to flip or not flip) and he was unsure of himself positioning and cutting off balls. As the season wore on, he got more and more comfortable. He's pretty athletic and has a really long reach. He's probably more prone to win a Gold Glove than a Silver Slugger IMHO.

I shared the fear when the ball was hit to Plouffe, but by mid-season I was confident when the ball was hit to him by mid-season. I think we have seen Plouffe mature as a ballplayer after seeing Plouffe come into the league with major issues in his game.

I'm with Brock on this and have learned to appreciate Plouffe for what he has done to become, by almost all measures, an above-average third baseman. In the Dozier thread there were comments about having 3-4 good players capable of having a great year. I would put both Plouffe and Dozier in that category. Their floors have gone up to capable or average and in good seasons could be in the top quartile at their position. Regarding the comments above, Plouffe isn't one to make many highlight film plays, but that shouldn't sully his defensive reputation. Making the plays that should be made is much more important than having Manny Machado throw out a guy from beyond the coaches box. Plouffe's (and Dozier's) improvement didn't make the Twins a contender in 2014, but having guys that can be counted on makes the climb to respectability and contention that much easier.

To expand on that story, the leadoff HR was much more than "baseball is back". It came after the off-season of uncertainty as to whether the Twins would be contracted. It was an all-caps "BASEBALL IS BACK AND THE TWINS ARE PART OF IT!".

I'm in!

Tempest in a teapot further complicated (to us) by language issues. I hope this is the case. Winter ball intrigues me and I don't really know how to consider performances in these leagues. I know many of the players are living at home and playing abbreviated schedules, I know that there are good crowds and good players when they are in the playoffs. I don't know how seriously the players are taking the competitions and I don't know if strong (or weak) performance shoud be an indication of future performance.

Hicks' history in the lower minors was to struggle early, repeat and succeed. He has basically skipped AAA, or at least not mastered that level. If Buxton or Rosario need playing time at AAA, move Hicks to a corner. It is his projected place when Buxton arrives if he stays with the Twins anyway. IMHO, Hicks fundamentals and psyche can't stand up to the challenge of big league pitching. It is possible that success at Rochester (if not domination) might build his confidence to the point that he would come back to the major and hit well from both sides of the plate. In answer to Dante above, I believe the ship has sailed on switch hitting. Despite the talk about how fundamentally poor some of Hicks' PAs have been, the biggest thing he is lacking is confidence. However the club can build Aaron Hicks' confidence is the way it should proceed. I firmly believe that a trip to Rochester the best and perhaps only answer.

Based on what? HIs lifetime .609 OPS, the total lack of power he displayed in 2014? His nice smile? My point all offseason has been that in nearly a full year's major league at-bats Aaron Hicks has not shown himslef to be a major league hitter. He has shown that his spring training performance can't be counted on, so based on those two factors and still considering him a prospect who can get better, the only destination for Hicks should be Rochester, New York. Schafer's month of August was superior to any month Hicks has performed in the majors, by a lot. In my book, he should get the at-bats versus right handed pitchers and since I firmly believe Hicks should work on his hitting in the minors, the only RH choice to play center field to start the season is Shane Robinson.

The problem with a Hicks/Schafer platoon is that the guy with the tools and (perhaps) unreached potential won't get many at-bats. If Hicks only starts against left handers, then he starts less than 50 games. That is not the way to develop a player still regarded as a prospect. I have advocated long and hard for Hicks to be optioned to Rochester and see if he can master AAA pitching and perhaps become an acceptable big-league hitter. I really think that is the only way to go for Hicks. If the Twins want their best players on the field, Escobar should be out there, even if it means that Santana is in center. Personally, I want to see how long the acceptable hitting for Schafer will play out. Even with his much improved performance in Minnesota, his numbers screamed "platoon". Still, if he can perform close to last year, he is an asset who provides speed and base-stealing ability, two things the club lacks. Since I've called for Hicks to be optioned, the logical backup outfielder would be Robinson, not really an All-Star setup, but again the RH half of a platoon doesn't get that much time on the field. To me, making Aaron Hicks into a platoon player lowers his value and closes the book on him becoming much more than a career fourth outfielder. While I have been critical of his performance and doubtful of his future, I do believe he still has a chance to be much more than a platoon player/fourth OF.

Since Hicks has a lower OPS and the same OPS+ in approximately the same number of plate appearances, I guess neither of them belong in the majors. Seriously, what is best for Hicks is to go to Rochester and master that level. If it means that Robinson gets some play for a month or two, so be it. The Cards have made the playoffs almost every year and he's managed to get 2.141 years of service, so I guess Robinson fits on a good team as the 25th man.

Hicks-Gomez? Not me. Gomez was overly aggressive and Hicks is overly passive, so as players they are really opposite sides of the coin. In the sense that they started in the majors before they were ready there are similarities. Further, we have only seen glimpses of Hicks that were capable major league players. We saw more sustained stretches from Gomez paired with slumps where he looked like he couldn't hit the ball if it was on a tee. Regarding Rasmus, I don't want to see the Twins bring in someone that would only be acceptable in the outfield and I think that is all we would get with Rasmus. He also has an injury history and has trouble with LH pitching. If the Twins were to add Rasmus, they would have four players with severe platoon splits--Mauer, Arcia, Vargas in addition to Rasmus. I also get the feeling that Santana is going to struggle more against LH pitching just from his ABs last year.

According to ESPN, Dozier had the fifth highest WAR amongst second basemen. Plouffe was tenth amongst third sackers. With a serf salary, Dozier is a tremendous bargain. Meanwhile, Plouffe was underpaid for his value, but not nearly as much as Dozier. If they both maintain their production, they would continue to be great values. The waiting replacement for Plouffe has a very high ceiling, but is probably half a season away. Not now but later, Plouffe is a prime trade candidate. Dozier would appear to be a Twins' regular for next year and two arb years. He would be 30 at that point, with one more year prior to free agency. There is still time to get a an extension done, if Dozier continues to improve his performance.

I am by no means certain that Polanco is going to be a capable big league player. Despite his cup of coffee with the Twins last year, I see him as both further away and less certain than Sano. On the larger question of extending either Plouffe or Dozier (or both), I see no reason to make such a move. Rewarding them for past and current performance is fine, but it has been pointed out repeatedly that the decline phases of similar players begins during the terms of the suggested extension.

I'll quibble with that answer. The clubs have the hammer of renewing a contract, but a contract is negotiated. IIRC, Trout received a few hundred K extra after his near-MVP season I believe Dozier got a little extra after assuming a regular position in 2013. I checked--Trout received a million after his rookie year, and Dozier got 540K. Escobar, with similar seniority got $507,500. It is peanuts, but there can be a negotiation. These guys are human beings and I think a little sweetener for guys who figure to be regulars is probably a good thing. For instance, Escobar probably should get an extra 50K or more than a simple renewal, giving Dozier a million this year won't break the bank and probably gives him a bit more incentive. Treating guys well who make serf wages is smart and not that costly.

IMHO, if that is the case, they are throwing good money after bad. I've said many times that I still consider Hicks a prospect, but even if he becomes a mid-range outfielder, I don't see much future for him with the Twins. Buxton will start in AA, and other players have made that jump. Buxton is a prospect in a different galaxy than Hicks ever was, so at best Hicks a) builds a little trade value or slides over to a corner where his bat will have to make another quantum leap to be league average. I don't believe Torii Hunter was signed to specifically mentor Aaron Hicks. He may have been acquired to provide an example for young players, but in the end Hicks will have to stand or fall on his own.

For goodness sakes, that option should be used. Turning a first round choice into a right handed Sam Fuld is not really a positive. Let the kid master AAA and come up when he's ready. If Rosario or Buxton is ready first, so be it.

I pretty much agree with the above post. I want to emphasize that the difference between being in major league camp and minor league camp is literally a few hundred feet. If Walker somehow shows he is "too good" for the Rochester group in camp, it is a short walk to the Twins' camp. I've seen him in the spring and at Cedar Rapids and he is an impressive physical specimen with both good speed and strength. Probably the player he reminds me of most is Michael Restovitch, who had a brief career in the majors but never established himself. Walker's resumé includes impressive counting numbers and championships. That is good, but can't totally be attributed to his performance alone. He's been on a succession of good teams and he's stayed on one team for an entire year.

I find this thread very interesting and I also see quite a divergence of opinion about Aaron Hicks. First of all, as usual, an absolutely wonderful analysis of Hicks by Parker. I think it is important to note that he isn't Miguel Cabrera from the right side either. Let's also acknowledge that there are definite advantages to switch hitting and definite advantages to batting left handed. At 25 years of age, one would have to be a really lousy left handed hitter to give up those advantages. Also a word about Hicks' tools--he is regarded as a fast runner, but he isn't off-the-charts fast. He had one good stolen base season, but otherwise hasn't been a huge threat on the bases. The power hasn't developed either and last year I was truly disappointed with the lack of power he showed, he just didn't hit many balls hard--on a line, fly balls or grounders. I agree that a prospect (and I still consider Hicks to be one) should not be platooned, especially as the RH half of a job share. I wholeheartedly agree that for the player and the team, Hicks must be sent to Rochester to start the season. Let him master a level he hasn't yet mastered, build his confidence, and if he is the best outfield option by sometime in May, bring him up. Regarding the lack of a Plan B, perhaps that is Danny Santana. It could happen either way, if the current candidates can't perform at replacement level or if Santana struggles as a shortstop, then he could return to the outfield where he made real strides and hit very well. I wouldn't rule out Rosario either. It is still a long shot for him to make the club out of ST, but in my mind he should be rated on a par with Hicks, since Aaron has not proven very much as a major leaguer.

I promised myself that I was done commenting about Aaron Hicks, but I just can't help myself. Being charitable, Hicks was a failure in 2013 and a disappointment in 2014. He displays commendable tools, but so far his performance has not been of major league quality. Hicks is 25 years old, and I still consider him a prospect, but after his performances of the past two years, Hicks needs to go back to the minor leagues. His pattern had been to struggle at a level, return and master that level. Hicks skipped Triple A and twice has failed to master big league pitching. He has performed well in the spring, only to struggle when the games count. It makes no sense to start him with the Twins in 2015, both for the team and the player and spring training can't serve as a measuring stick of his readiness, as evidenced by the last two years. As mentioned, Hicks has nice tools, but none of them are game-changing and his hit tool hasn't developed to play at the highest level. He isn't going to change many games with his speed and his defense isn't as good as advertised. Nick is certainly closer to the Twins' decision makers than I am and perhaps he has indications that Hicks will be the starting center fielder. I can't imagine that they would keep Hicks in the majors to be a RH half of a platoon, starting less than 30% of games.

Don't forget All-Star Kurt Suzuki!

I have a generally favorable opinion of the Santana signing because I really believe you can't have too much pitching. It pretty much takes care of spending for other needs (outfielder w/ above average defense), but the position player side of the equation is in much better shape than the pitching side. It seems to me that something always happens and guys who weren't in the top six or seven to start the season make multiple starts. The trick is what to do with all of the starters until the inevitable breakdowns occur. Terry Ryan is a good GM (IMHO), so I think he can find a way to get all of the guys innings and work either in the starting rotation, the bullpen or Rochester. Also, I think having a tradable commodity isn't a bad thing.

I'm not a fan of the Hunter signing and I am skeptical of him providing intangibles to make the Twins a winner. Hunter serves as a great example and he does compete, but the key is performing on the field. I disagree with the veiled reference that the Twins don't try or that they give up. Just because they are, by and large, "nice guys" doesn't mean they want to win more or less than vocal, emotional players. I don't think that judging by spring training appearances is a good idea.

I am not sure if Pinto might be moved or if he simply loses out to another catcher acquired in the next month. If the Twins acquire a better complement to Suzuki, Pinto could end up in Rochester waiting to be traded or for an injury. I guess it won't be Masterson according to media reports (of course according to media reports, Torii would not have signed in Minnesota), but getting someone in the rotation that has a chance to be as good as Hughes was in 2014 is something that should be done.

The signing of Torii Hunter has brought off-the-field issues back to the fore for the Twins. Part of the reason for signing Hunter has been for clubhouse leadership, mentoring of young players, and also bring back fans to the park. Hunter's pros and cons in these areas have been analyzed more than the break on Phil Hughes' spike curve. I weighed in on several threads saying that it wasn't possible to measure if there would be any effect and I doubted there would be much effect anyway. This commentary does bring up questions about the Twins' clubhouse and whether a lack of leadership has been at the root of the Twins' struggles for the last four years. I am of the opinion that talent and winning are much more a component than whether Torii Hunter or Kirby Puckett are a positive clubhouse influence. I think that some of the guys who have been looked at as clubhouse leaders are more likely just the gregarious guys who give good quotes to the media. The Twins have had a succession of nice guys who are accessible such as Dozier, Cuddyer, Hunter and Puckett. I don't know if all of them were truly leaders or just media darlings. Guys like Joe Mauer have never been vocal, but they might be leaders just as well. To me, it is still much more about talent than it is about attitude.

Before the Arizona Fall League began I started beating the drum for Eddie Rosario to make the Twins out of spring training in 2015. The signing of Torii Hunter as a free agent makes an already long shot into a near impossibility, barring injury. That is all right because we can project and predict all we want on Twins Daily and only highlight when we are right! Since Hunter's acquisition has occurred, I decided I would try to project again who will come north with the 2015 Twins. Here's my latest take: Pitchers: (12) Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Rickie Nolasco, Alex Meyer, Justin Masterson, Mike Pelfrey, Lester Oliveros, Brian Duensing, Caleb Thielbar, Michael Tonkin, Casey Fien, Glen Perkins. Catchers: (2) Kurt Suzuki, unknown backup catcher acquired in Pinto trade Infielders: (7) Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Danny Santana, Trevor Plouffe, Kennys Vargas, Eduardo Escobar, Eduardo Nuñez. Outfielders: (4) Oswaldo Arcia, Jordan Schafer, Shane Robinson, Torii Hunter I originally was going to include Milone in the starting rotation and Meyer or May in the bullpen. Milone has an option remaining and I think the Twins will want to see what they have with Meyer, who has still not thrown his first major league pitch at age 25. They've seen a bit of May and both he and Milone will get a shot. I also believe the Twins will sign one veteran for the starting rotation. I have been calling for Masterson since before the '14 season was over. He's my pick to have a Hughes-like breakout. In the bullpen, two hard throwers are in line to get a real shot this year--Tonkin and Oliveros. Pelfrey succeeds Swarzak as the long man, hopefully getting little work in the first month or so. It wouldn't surprise me to see Big Mike get another shot at starting. If he's fully healthy, Pelfrey can be more than serviceable. That just hasn't happened in his two-year tenure with the Twins. Young reinforcements are on the doorstep for the bullpen. I hope the Twins are willing to transition to younger, harder throwers as the season progresses. I have not named a backup catcher to Suzuki. I think the Twins will be looking to trade Pinto or trade for a backup catcher that fits with Suzuki--that would be a youngish defense-first LH hitter. I don't know if such a guy exists, but if the Twins can find such a player, they can and should snap him up. Barring a trade, the starting infield is set. Santana gets the nod at short, although other factors could move him back to the outfield. Escobar is the utility guy, who gets starts at second, short and third. Nuñez is the 25th man, capable of starting at short, third, and left, also right and second in a pinch. I have stated that Aaron Hicks must have AAA time to prove himself, rebuild his confidence and master the next level that he hadn't handled up to now. That means a platoon of minor league signing Shane Robinson and waiver claim Jordan Schafer are my center fielders. I expect Rosario or Hicks to claim the job from Schafer by Memorial Day, but when the Twins open in Comerica Park on Bert Blyleven's birthday, I'm going with the non-prospects to start the season. I expect much better performance from the back end of the rotation, enough the negate any regression Hughes might suffer and enough to lift the Twins close to contention and with a surprise or two, above .500. Here's my opening day lineup assuming Verlander gets the nod for the Tigers: SS Danny Santana RF Torii Hunter 1B Joe Mauer 3B Trevor Plouffe LF Oswaldo Arcia 2B Brian Dozier DH Kennys Vargas C Kurt Suzuki CF Jordan Schafer P Phil Hughes