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stringer bell

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Everything posted by stringer bell

  1. Agree Brock. Skubal is a candidate to start the All-Star game. He has been terrific. This will be a test to see how good the right handed platoon really is. Flaherty has also been really good this year, but I would expect some regression to the mean from him. Detroit has been pesky for the Twins in 2023 and 2024. I hope they can win another series and it would be nice to knock off Skubal tonight.
  2. If Buxton's health (I guess that means his knee at this point) remains good, I don't think he will slump as long or as badly as he did in 2023. For one thing, there are scratch singles to beat out as he has done several times this year. On a related note, while he hasn't stolen many bases, he has shown his elite speed in the field and on the bases, which is fun to watch and separates him from most random "fast guys".
  3. K percentage is based on plate appearances, not official at-bats. Buxton has 233 plate appearances and as noted has struck out 64 times.
  4. Jax has been very good and IMHO the best pitcher for the Twins in the first half. Ryan has been second best (again IMHO) and while he has really good numbers, I don't think a guy with a .500 record and ERA in the low to mid-threes will be an All-Star. despite the K/BB ratio and WHIP. Jax doesn't have big numbers in either holds or saves, so I don't expect him to be named either.
  5. The Twins hit their high water mark this season with their victory over Seattle in the rubber game of a three game series in Emerald City. They are 10 games over for the first time this year. Baseball Reference gives them a 77.7% chance to make the playoffs at this point. That chance is better than Seattle, slightly better than Kansas City and much better than either Houston or Boston. The Twins have the fourth best record in the AL, but are six games worse than the best--Cleveland, New York and Baltimore are all 22 games over .500. Starting the second half of the season, those three teams would appear to be locks, while the Twins head up the second tier of likely playoff teams. The Twins have enjoyed excellent health since an early spate of injuries. Only Alex Kirilloff and Chris Paddack have gone on ther IL in the last two months. Kirilloff had been struggling for weeks and Paddack had more poor starts than good ones. Perhaps both were affected by the injuries that put them on the IL, but neither was helping the team much before they were placed on IL. Looking ahead to the second half of the season, the Twins need to get their best bullpen arms in the major league bullpen. We are waiting for Brock Stewart to return and for Justin Topa to debut. Good performance from either is a risky bet due to their injuries. The supposed low-leverage bullpen arms just aren't very trustworthy. Steven Okert is LOOGy when the rules force him to face right handed hitters. Caleb Thielbar has been just bad. He can't get anyone out easily, it seems. Josh Sands is alternately pretty good and pretty bad, getting behind on counts and getting pitches mashed. If he's ahead in counts, he looks pretty good, but there have been way too many 2-0, 3-0 and 3-1 counts where the hitter gets a middle-middle fastball. The Twins need to augment their middle relief and hopefully add a capable left hander. The bottom of the position player roster has endured justified criticism. Manuel Margot has performed better, but his overall performance is subpar. He was viewed as a Michael A Taylor replacement--good defense, less power, more contact--but has settled in to be a platoon corner OF with little power and speed and only adequate defense. Kyle Farmer has struggled mightily. His utility value is diminished by having Willi Castro around and healthy left side guys Lewis, Miranda and Correa. Farmer hasn't crushed lefties and the power has waned (zero HRs in 141 PAs) and finally Christian Vázquez is playing every other day while compiling an OPS+ of 31. Most connected with the team are predicting that Brooks Lee will be promoted in the next month or so. An injury could make the move happen sooner and a slump could delay such a move. Adding Lee, presumably at second base adds another everyday player and a switch hitter, perhaps balancing the lineup a bit. Austin Martin or Farmer would be in the crosshairs for demotion/DFA, with Martin being the likely victim. Thielbar's struggles allow Funderburk some rope as a lefty reliever. When used properly, Okert is functional. Jorge Alcalá has been terrific and would figure for more high-leverage work and I think the Twins need to see what they have in Josh Staumont--he's been handled with kid gloves in terms of workload and leverage--since he is still carrying a 0.00 ERA. With good health, the Twins are a good pick to make postseason, although they have a steep hill to climb to catch Cleveland this year. Their self-imposed salary limitations make a splashy trade at the deadline pretty unlikely, but there is enough talent on board to see October baseball again in 2024. It is a long season and there will be ups and downs, but right now the remainder of the season looks exciting and worthwhile.
  6. Actually, the MiLB baseball box score says he struck out four times, with a walk in his fifth PA.
  7. I agree that Vázquez is really the only proven option to catch along with Jeffers. Given his salary, he isn't going anywhere anytime soon. I don't agree with using him 50% of the time. Jeffers should be able to catch the odd game, something between 55 and 60 percent of games.
  8. Staumont was optioned earlier this year (from April 19 to May 8). He is close to five years of service time, but currently short of it, so he could be optioned.
  9. Matt Bowman may rival Niko Goodrum before the season is over--he's pitched in the majors for three teams and is now a free agent after opting out of a minor league contract with the Mariners. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/matt-bowman-opts-out-of-deal-with-mariners.html
  10. The Twins are undoubtedly a contender. They aren't going to trade Santana, full stop. I can imagine Miranda, Julien or Kirilloff going reps at first base if Smooth starts to slump, but Carlos S is as certain to be on this team for the rest of the year as Carlos C is.
  11. I don’t like Okert matching up against any right handed hitter. He’s a LOOGy in the three-hitter minimum era.
  12. Both guys have come back from "no chance to make the club" in Spring Training to prominent roles on a good offense. Larnach is platooned, probably for good reason, but Miranda has done well against both right and left handed pitching and is a choice to start every game. Neither guy is a future Gold Glove winner, but aren't defensive black holes. With the disappointing seasons so far from Kirilloff, Wallner and Julien, having Miranda and Larnach thrive has been a season saver.
  13. The DH wasn’t injured. The catcher was injured and the DH was put on the field to replace the injured catcher. Essentially, allowing the DH to take the field in the event of an injury would open a can of worms IMHO. MLB has made rules so Ohtani could hit and DH, so I suppose it is not impossible, but I think it is changing the usage of a DH that has been in place in the AL for over 50 years.
  14. I have been thinking about this for a couple weeks. Wallner and Kirilloff disappointed for the Twins this year and Larnach has stepped up. I'm not willing to say he's "figured it out", but he has sustained decent performance for 40% of a season, but then again Wallner did that too. In shorter stretches Kirilloff has also looked like an accomplished major league hitter. The Twins absolutely need decent production from one of the three players this year and might need two guys to establish themselves in 2025 with the probable exit of Max Kepler. The three guys are an interesting compare and contrast. Wallner has big power and the best speed along with an elite throwing arm, but he seems to have the most problems making contact consistently. Kirilloff was the highest draft choice and seemed to possess the best bat-to-ball skill. He's left handed and has been regarded as a potential first baseman since he was drafted. Larnach doesn't have the arm, power or speed that Wallner has, but he's a capable outfielder who excelled in college and presents as a decent power hitter. Larnach is getting big league time and hasn't squandered it. He's reduced his chase rate and his strikeouts and has hit the ball hard. He's done well the last two years in RBI situations and seems to have modified his approach enough to be a decent major league hitter. Wallner probably and Kirilloff possibly will get another chance this year. Maybe they'll make the jump, maybe not. The Twins don't have enough left handed hitting upside to just give up on any of these three. Emma Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins are in the pipeline. One would think they are surer bets than Larnach, AK or Wallner, but there's room for two or three to thrive and help the Twins.
  15. I disagree. Seattle didn't have to put their DH in play, but chose to because....catchers. Seattle had been carrying two catchers plus Garver, but decided they should go with two catchers and risk what happened today.
  16. Okay, it wasn't a one-run win, but this was high anxiety from the fifth inning on. Nice job the last two innings by the bullpen guys. Big hit from Larnach and after screwing up multiple makeable plays, good defense in the late innings.
  17. The last four innings have been like walking through fire followed by walking on broken glass and now snakes. Let's go Durán!!
  18. Canzone and Haniger can pinch hit for the pitcher and Provus still doesn't have it right.
  19. I honestly don't know what they're saving him for.
  20. C'mon Cory. He's batting for the pitcher, not the pinch hitter.
  21. The only move that is unusual is giving Correa a day off. Actually, I think it has a lot more to do with Austin Martin. He is probably on the brink of being sent down IMHO, and giving him a chance to impress, today at second base.
  22. After everything that happened in the fifth, I was holding my breath on the hopper to Lewis.
  23. Probably the craziest inning I've seen in this Twins' season. They are rid of Castillo for the pinch hitter, but Ryan probably has only one inning left at best. Old mo (mentum) seems to have switched sides.
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