Luis Arráez is the favorite to win his third consecutive batting championship in the 2024 season. To my knowledge, he would be the first to win three batting championships for three different teams. He is, far and away, the best contact hitter in the game at this time, posting a tiny 5.7% K rate. For these reasons alone, Arráez should be considered a unique player--a unicorn.
After the Twins were rained out yesterday, I checked some baseball pages and noted that Arraez has moved close to the top in batting average after being below .300 for the Marlins early this year. I also noted a WAR of 1.1 and I looked down the list of batting qualifiers to find someone with the same (or lower) number. The answer was Josh Smith, who is hitting .294 in about 70 fewer plate appearances. I'll comment here that I'm not a huge fan of WAR, but it is a way to sort overall value among position players. Next, I checked another "overall stat" and found that Arráez currently ranks 66th in MLB with a .745 mark. The .745 posted by Arráez is significantly lower than he put up in each of his two batting championship years. Why would Arráez' OPS number be down over 100 points and why would his WAR project to about 2.4 for a full season? I thought I had a couple answers and decided to check some other stats for this one-of-a-kind player.
First, Arraez isn't a slugger. He has only one home run along with thirteen doubles and a triple. His iso power number will never be that high, but so far this season, it is a career low. It stands at .061 while major league average is .166. Luis' lifetime iso power number is .096. Secondly, and probably most telling is that his walk rate is low this year--3.8%, less than half of his lifetime mark of 7.4% and far below the major league average of 8.5%. If a guy has limited power and isn't a base running threat, why nibble? Finally, Arraez leads the National League in GDPs, which projects to the high 20s over a full season. Arraez' career exit velocity numbers have always been pedestrian but this year's 85.8 MPH number is also the lowest in his career.
Arráez has been moved, more or less permanently to first base and DH by the Padres. He and Jake Cronenworth switched positions a couple weeks ago. His value as an alleged 5'10" first baseman is capped by his size (IMHO). As a base runner, Luis isn't gifted with good speed, but as often as he gets on base, he should be a pretty smart base runner.
There aren't many players like Luis Arráez. He's a good day away from assuming the MLB lead in average, but he has to be head and shoulders above average in hitting because of factors like power, speed, and defensive ability and he is an above average player. I think the league has figured him out to some extent--throw him strikes and live with a lot of singles. IMHO, Arráez is the finishing touch, putting him on top of a good lineup will yield a lot of runs scored, but he isn't the kind of guy that can change a so-so team into a champion. Tony Gwynn and Rod Carew won a lot of batting championships and Arráez might join them by the time he is through, but he does have to hit like that to be an asset to his team.