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Dodecahedron

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Everything posted by Dodecahedron

  1. Dodecahedron
    Good write up. My opinion since Sano moved to first base: He is a pricier version of Kennys Vargas. We never saw a full season of Vargas, but if we had his floor would probably be higher than Sano's floor, both offensively and defensively. Remember when the fanbase had visceral reactions to putting a poor defender like Vargas at first? Now the team has a worse defender at first. Of course, if Sano ever fires on all cylinders, great things can happen when he hits the ball. Hopefully no one is holding their breath on that occurring for a full year on a regular basis, since it has yet to happen once.
  2. Dodecahedron
    Yes, I was being snarky.
  3. Dodecahedron
    Yes I am happy, thank you. For Kepler, I think we saw his floor in 2018 and his ceiling in 2019. He will reliably perform between 97 OPS+ and 123 OPS+ for the bulk of his career. This isn't bad by any means, and he's an asset to the team, but the Twins need other better players on the roster if they want to get anywhere.
  4. Dodecahedron
    I'm not convinced that offensive stats are what make a good catcher, though it's certainly a "nice to have." I'm also not convinced Garver still has to prove himself offensively. He performed well through the minors, last year was goofball, and it's unlikely he will suddenly forget how to hit for the rest of his career. Was Garver fighting a nagging injury last year?
  5. Dodecahedron
    Not trying to be contrarian for sure, but I don't think any of these players are underrated. We know Kepler can play; if anything the Twins fanbase overrates him. We know Taylor Rogers can pitch, and at this point none of us know much about what Jeffers will do in the majors.
  6. Dodecahedron
    They spent far more cash than I expected. I'm not too proud to admit that I was way off on their budget and plans for the year. I am pleased but not blown away by their moves, but I will say this has been a very atypical Twins offseason. Most of us did not expect most of these guys to be signed, and I think at the same time most of us don't know what the end result will be.
  7. Dodecahedron
    Park Factors jumps all over the place, year over year, when it comes to Target Field. But so did the Metrodome in the later years, so I think it's a fair argument that Park Factors is swayed heavily by the offensive prowess of the home team. However, for TF, Park Factors tends to swing much further to the hitter's side than it ever does to the pitcher's side. I would call TF a hitter's park for that reason alone. In year's where TF is rated a pitcher's park, it's still rated very close to the median.
  8. Dodecahedron
    I think there's no question there were too many home runs in 2018 and 2019. To see who will be most affected, look at BABIP. Of the people listed, Kepler will be affected the most. Garver and Polanco should be fine, or at least their performance should not dip more than league average.
  9. Dodecahedron
    His wife is named Ms. Garlick-Bread.
  10. Dodecahedron
    OPS+ takes eras into consideration as it compares players to other players who played the same year. So does WAR. There is a reason I suggested looking at those metrics. And, to be clear, I did as I suggested before I wrote my post. I wasn't going to go and do it a second time to respond to someone who seemed to be unreasonably angry at the assertion that Astudillo would not have been the worst player on the 87 and 91 teams. And really, what would have been the point? Why play ball with someone who is unreasonably angry?
  11. Dodecahedron
    I don't see the problem. Astudillo will probably play 30 games too. Y'all keep thinking you are making zingers or something, but you're just confirming his place on the team.
  12. Dodecahedron
    Except that Astudillo is a major league player, not a prospect. As you say, he should have performed very well against this competition -- and he did.
  13. Dodecahedron
    You have the same access to the data that I do. 1) Go to baseball-reference.com. 2) Look up Astudillo. The good macro stats to look at for comparison to others are OPS+, WAR, dWAR (i.e., no cherry picking specific stats). 3) Pull up the 87 and 91 teams and look at the same macro stats. It's a 5 minute exercise, or less.
  14. Dodecahedron
    Though this is true that he would not be claimed, I wonder if he truly has options left. The minors did not exist last year, which should have been his last option year. He was certainly not with the MLB team all year.
  15. Dodecahedron
    Superstar, no. Place on a contending team? Why not? He is a good guy. He pushes himself hard. He is popular with fans. He hits and fields better than you describe. Astudillo is a better player than 4 starters on the 87 Twins roster and the entire bench. Astudillo is also better hitter than 4 starters on the 91 Twins roster. I think the Twins can find a place for him. You could argue that Astudillo had no place on the legendary 65 Twins, but they did not win a championship. Maybe they should have had an Astudillo.
  16. Dodecahedron
    Garver is better than he showed last year, that's for sure.
  17. Dodecahedron
    Seems OK.
  18. Dodecahedron
    I'm shocked Colome was even available. I'm also surprised the Twins got him at half his salary from last year. Crazy times.
  19. Dodecahedron
    I can't say I disagree with your premises, they are solid. I still believe the Twins will miss Rosario.
  20. Dodecahedron
    There are two fielding positions that are considered acceptable to place poor fielding players when you want their bats in the lineup: 1B and LF. Eddie was at one of those two positions. Left fielders have the worst defensive stats in the game, since first basemen get all those putouts. Even the best defensive left fielders rank near the bottom of leaguewide defense. In most years, Rosario had a positive dWAR. I'll take that any day from a left fielder.
  21. Dodecahedron
    Eddie's OPS+ in "High Leverage Situations" last year was 99, which is right at average. I have not looked, but I imagine this places around the top 3 of the players on the team. When you lose your #2/#3 player, you feel it.
  22. Dodecahedron
    Good reality check. With the way last season went down, I would imagine the distance between ranking 20th in a stat and ranking 15th isn't very large, etc. The Twins have a solid chance to regress toward the mean in many of these categories. I think it's folly to believe that Rosario's absence will not be felt as he was a top-3 contributor to almost all of these categories, if not the leader. The situation is far from hopeless, but yeah we're probably not looking at many top-5 or top-10 finishes at the team level next year.
  23. Dodecahedron
    Good move. With a 1-year deal, the Twins can trade him if they stumble this year.
  24. Dodecahedron
    I tried a few times to figure out PECOTA. It always seems way off. Heck, it seems almost random with some players. There's a reason no one uses it. If it works at all, it's incredibly complicated. While the rest of the baseball world searches in vain for an uberstat, Baseball Prospectus settled on a bizarrostat.
  25. Dodecahedron
    Very funny ... but worth pointing out that Tesla makes a profit due to selling offsets, not from selling cars. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9208443/Teslas-2020-car-sales-resulted-LOSS-car-maker-did-not-sell-zero-emission-credits.html When another company mass produces electric cars at the same pace, not only do the offsets go away but Tesla will also lose market share. That's a 1-2 punch if I ever saw one.
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