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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    You have too much free time. But, I LOLed. Would LOL again.
  2. ashbury
    Build around, like you would for a Sano or a Buxton? No, probably not. But Dozier's defense at second base has been above average, and the batting ability he brings (you left out his power) does not grow on trees in that combination. Were we to trade him to fill some other hole, replacing him becomes a pressing task.
  3. ashbury
    Byron Buxton legs out an intentional walk. (Just kidding, he's on his way to third, demonstrating how to score from first base on a short double if I recall correctly. Guy's fast. Photo courtesy Ash Jr.)
  4. ashbury
    What they lack in manpower they make up in stanchions.
  5. ashbury
    Most donuts cost more than a dollar these days, not sure which way you're saying the smart money bets.
  6. ashbury
    Vavra? Why?
  7. ashbury
    That's the thing I like about the AFL. You call up and ask what time the game is, they ask what time can you be there.
  8. ashbury
    Byron and Eddie on deck, about to start the game against the Peoria Javelinas, October 10.
  9. ashbury

    IMG 1259

    ashbury posted a gallery image in Members Albums Category

    IMG 1259

    From the album: AFL October 2014

    Buxton and Rosario on deck
  10. ashbury
    I'd lean toward a FA option for LF, with the idea of trading that guy if someone else (Rosario is the flavor of the month right now) forces the issue in 2016 or even in 2015. There's money in the budget to get someone Pretty Darn GoodTM, for 3 years say, and somebody like that should be tradable even if not for seemingly equivalent value - we still come out ahead unless he pulls a NolascoTM. For CF I'd try for a smaller FA signing or a small trade - somebody with a skillset like Fuld's for instance, or a little better, preferably with minor league options so he can be stashed in Rochester. CF is a premium position but TR is pretty good at working at this end of the spectrum - I'm not a big Schafer fan but he and Fuld were good gets.
  11. ashbury
  12. ashbury
    It happened some. I don't know if it was a "lot". But even a few of these tends to raise the run total from below average to above average. But... it happens to other teams too. Someone with 'leet stats skills needs to define some things, and then run the numbers for me.
  13. ashbury
    Moderator's Note: ftfy Folks, when in disagreement with someone, please stick to the facts as you see them, and don't try to characterize the people with whom you disagree. When in doubt, choose to not make it personal. (I chose to be concrete this time by providing an alternate version of someone's post, not to limit the observation to that one person, or to this particular thread. It's been cropping up lately. And please don't divert this thread to the tangent of moderation, instead take it to the appropriate part of the forum if you feel the need to discuss.)
  14. ashbury
    It depends on the makeup of the team around him. Picture a team with a lot of low-OBP sluggers (doubles and home runs); replace the worst one with a crafty guy who can get on base but has absolutely no power at the top of the order, and scoring may take a big jump upward, seemingly out of proportion to that one guy. But on a team that already has a lot of guys getting on base with scratch singles and walks, getting another guy like that to replace the worst guy might not improve matters a whole lot, with 3 or even 4 baserunners per inning still needed to score one measly run. On an average team with average OPS made up of some on-base guys and some sluggers, I'd guess that you want to look at OPS or other "runs created" kinds of numbers for the new guy too, and not just OBP.Rules of thumb like adding up OPS work in middle of the road scenarios, but I think there are some non-linearities that crop up when you get away from the median. Extreme outliers, either of a team or (particularly) of a player, make the analysis harder. I would guess that a team can handle having two high-OBP but empty-SLG hitters. Adding a third starts to be a problem in lineup construction, having more is bad. If you already have two, find someone else.
  15. ashbury
    I rambled. Let me say it again this way. I would not like to take the offense we had in 2014 in to the post-season, had we been so lucky. It would have gotten shut down by the caliber of pitching seen in October, to a greater degree than the offenses we do see competing now. Game 162, a shutout against Price, sealed that emerging opinion for me.
  16. ashbury
    In addition to the other responses to this, it seemed to me that the offense was more feast-and-famine. Anecdotally, they could score runs against starters who didn't have it that day, or once the bullpen was reached. What is needed is not just the mean (runs/game) but the standard deviation, which would be easy to calculate if anyone (me included) took the time; I don't know what the league average for this would be but it wouldn't surprise me if ours was high, due to the total runs being padded in several laughers. Of course every team has laughers, which is why I wish a number was handy. Our offense scored some runs, better than I expected back in March, but still overall seemed soft to me, and it wouldn't take much to have a dropoff. It could also solidify in 2015, or even improve, as the youngsters have a chance to improve. I don't feel confident predicting which way things go. We're near some kind of turning point but things right now are in a big state of flux.
  17. ashbury
    The '87 Twins were a magnificently crafted roster including two stud starters to carry you through short series and a catcher who will nail runners at third base at the drop of a hat.
  18. ashbury
    I once attended a talk given by Benoit Mandelbrot, the dude who is associated with Fractals. A point he made that has stuck with me through the years is that we deal with random numbers when we don't yet have a good enough grasp of the underlying process. I'm fine with viewing playoffs as a crapshoot, but at the same time I wouldn't want to discourage someone from trying to identify characteristics that make for a World Series winner, even if it remains somewhat probabilistic.
  19. ashbury
    ....nah, never mind, you're right, carry on.
  20. ashbury
    http://media.hotair.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/facepalm-triple.jpg "NONE of you guys brought the pizza rolls?" cf. Parker's "Mom made pizza rolls" meme some time back...
  21. ashbury
    Hicks just completed his age-24 season. Schafer today at age 28 and Fuld at 30+ aren't comparables for such discussions. OPS gains of .100 from one season to the next are not uncommon at Hicks's age. Going again without a legitimate Plan B on the 40-man roster would be foolish of course - this is true no matter how good your starter is. But I would lean toward Hicks as my starting CF in 2015 unless he flounders during spring training, and if he needs to be sent down to AAA I still wouldn't flush him from the organizational depth chart unless he failed again in 2016 (when he would then have no minor league options left).
  22. ashbury
    And getting thrown out going for two would still net you your single for the AB and PA.
  23. ashbury
    I vote for this. Setting a major league record that is highly unlikely to ever be broken is always fun.
  24. ashbury
    Rogers had a large icepack on his left wrist before the game on Friday, and after the game on Friday and then on Saturday it looked like a small cast, probably a removable one. I didn't think his shoulder was involved.
  25. ashbury
    I believe it was the final two batters of the game, and here is what AFL's website "Gameday" page for them shows: Hector Gomez: ball, foul, swinging strike, called strike Nick ("You Killed Kenny You") Basto: foul, swinging strike, ball, out to CF That doesn't pin it down, unless I'm correct in remembering that on the first guy it wasn't the first pitch where it happened. That would rule out it being called a ball. Don't know if a foul or swinging strike would be the one. Too bad the brains of my family wasn't keeping his scorebook that evening.
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