Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

ashbury

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    40,838

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    463

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Explains why it was so easy getting a front-pew seat at church, and also why they skipped the sermon.
  2. ashbury
    Quite the novelty, having a Spanish-speaking player on our team. (I've gone to that well myself plenty of times.)
  3. ashbury
    You may rely on it. It is decidedly so.
  4. ashbury
    Unless... their judgement was that a player is more likely to slide through waivers a few days after Opening Day, when other teams are making their first adjustments just like we are. There are probably numbers that tell, one way versus the other; I don't know where to look up transaction records that show historical waiver claims.
  5. ashbury
    i know, and yet I see other teams' catchers pull the same stuff and get the calls. I think the good umps, of which there are many, filter that mitt stuff out.
  6. ashbury
    I'd also start bunting more and otherwise playing for one run, after a certain point.
  7. ashbury
    Fun With Numbers: This is the first time since 2016 that Ben Rortvedt has gotten a base hit in his first game of the season. OK, that's not so unusual, but I'm happier to see a good start to his season than a slow one.
  8. ashbury
    I find this link useful for some purposes too: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/affiliate.cgi?id=MIN
  9. ashbury
    It could be that the lack of chances goes deeper than that. For example, as I've said before, the one game I saw of him in person, at AAA last year, I believe I've never witnessed a player make his way out to left field to start an inning slooooower than he did. He didn't happen to get tested there in any meaningful way during the game, so I had only that one small impression to stick with me, and an assumption we'd be dealing with a Josh Willingham-level of skill out there*. There could be other things like that with Willians, I have no idea. Scouts have a deeper repository of views of a player, than my one little observation time, but still little things could stick with a player if seen at the wrong time. Maybe a scout has been burned by players who chose to turn on the effort only at certain times. Vague observations lumped together with a lethal comment like "questions about makeup" could stall a guy's chances in an organization. I don't give much credit to charley hustle types, but I really was perplexed when I saw him, considering what I had heard. The reality, after seeing him several more times on teevee, seems to be a ballplayer with a nose for the ball on defense. I would actually love to see him faced with a challenging play in LF. He may just have had terrible luck in when the people who matter saw him. * I always rush to add, Josh's spine was badly damaged by the time we got him, and I don't hold his lack of an all-out effort against him in the slightest. He just was who he was, by that point, and is my benchmark for substandard left field performance that you choose to live with anyway.
  10. ashbury
    Byron Buxton: Reckless or Aggressive? Yes.
  11. ashbury
    La tortuga dorada.
  12. ashbury
    I like it when posters say nice things.
  13. ashbury
    http://www.quickmeme.com/img/08/0848cba1a97180c12eb83fc7f228d6c535ddb1e5994d198a0b8eae2d602a25fa.jpg
  14. ashbury
    I love his bat, but does Jorge Polanco have a major league shortstop's arm?
  15. ashbury
    Longer than I thought. Three more seasons to try to make the selection work.
  16. ashbury
    Eventually, and I think not too far down the road, he can elect free agency.
  17. ashbury
    FanGraphs has taken a crack at this. I'm not sure how successfully. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/introducing-the-batter-specific-run-expectancy-tool/ I agree that we're a long way away from using actual RE tables to make game decisions. They're just (IMO) interesting as a way of setting a baseline for discussion. Fast/slow runner on second, a good/bad hitter at the plate, a good bunter on the bench... all these will adjust the numbers, at the risk of cutting down the numbers to Small Sample Size, meaning that the manager using his noodle to decide is still probably for the best.
  18. ashbury
    I don't think "formula" or "equation" is an accurate representation of run expectancy. In its basic form, it's historical data, sorted (and averaged) into 24 spots in a matrix that comes from there being 3 numbers of outs (0,1 and 2) and each of the three bases might either be occupied or not (2x2x2=8 configurations). Here is an example compilation from game data 1950-2015: http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html Now, I think FanGraphs goes to another level, and has some proprietary formulas that they use to adjust the real-world data for various purposes, such as to speculate on an era where offense is higher across the board. But those aren't formulas that people like us need, when putting the RE table to use. I guess you can say there is a "formula", of sorts, on how to use the table. When a plate appearance is finished, take the RA value of the new situation, subtract the RA value before the play started, and of course add any actual runs that were scored. That's the result, from either the batter's or the pitcher's perspective. Also, there are two main variations of the table: expected number of runs to score the rest of the inning, or the probability of scoring at least one run. In late innings, particularly the bottom of the ninth (which was the discussion point), the latter may be more important. But the numbers you crank, through this process, are at heart real life data, even if sliced and diced a few ways.
  19. ashbury
    Yeah, Rocco ought to grab a ball and bat sometime, and go out on the field to try out his theories. It's not so easy out there, compared to just sitting in the recliner chair in the dugout and pushing some buttons. / edit - April Fool?
  20. ashbury
    Not clear if anyone on the roster qualifies as a sure thing who is just waiting for an opening on the big club. Quite a number of question marks who, if they pan out, could contribute. The Red Wings' visits to Pawtucket are marked on my calendar, to get a look in person when the time comes.
  21. ashbury
    Apparently not, though.
  22. ashbury
    Max better be ready to run hard, if he has Byron behind him on the basepath.
  23. ashbury
    When he came in it was only 3-0, and I wasn't too wowed with his command or movement on the ball in that inning. "Effectively wild" at best.
  24. ashbury
    Oh, by far, that was the only negative to Astudillo's day. He keeps having these coming out parties like today's game - eventually we're going to figure out he's not a debutante anymore.
  25. ashbury
    We're probably looking at the same video, and it might be the only one available, and I agree it's hard to tell exactly when the coach stopped/started to signal to run hard. The coach came into view just a millisecond too late for our purpose. With none out, the instinct probably was to be conservative. If instead it was indecision, due to not completely thinking through in advance that you had an eager runner on second and a very fast one on first, then that's a place for some fine tuning and discussion. But if the indecision was on the part of Astudillo, and/or he wasn't on the same page with Buxton, then that's something else to work out. Wasn't costly this time. Next time it might be. Astudillo was clearly upset even though he had scored. Since I don't know his demeanor that well yet, he looked almost on the verge of tears. That could have been anger at himself (my interpretation), or coach Diaz(?), or Buxton. Wonder if it came up in the postgame interviews.
×
×
  • Create New...