The other thing to consider is that the HOF has a very small # of third basemen. The voters have been very picky with the position, and guys that have been voted in recently have had the big counting stats (3000 hits like Boggs, Molitor, Brett). Chipper Jones should be a lock, but I would not be shocked if even he was not a 1st ballot guy. Beltre has been great for a long time (I really REALLY wanted the Twins to sign him the last time he was Free Agent) and if he can keep it up until he turns 40, I think he'll be sitting closer to the top 5 WAR at his position. That should make it an easier vote for most.