ThejacKmp

I like how the author asked very positive questions and then the first reply is negative about Brian dozier. Love me some twins daily but too large of a percentage of people here are only happy wehn it's raining. :-)

I think that's what I said? Maybe it was confusingly worded? Also I wouldn't even begin to pick the pitching staff. That pen could go 1000 ways and so many rotation questions. May? Berrios? Nolasco still around? Milone? That's going to be super interesting to see what the Twins do.

1) The Twins will only have four guys on their bench. We may like them to not take 12 pitchers but with an inconsistent bullpen, you'll see them keeping an extra guy. It's what they like to do anyways. 2) Hard to see Buxton starting the year in the minors. He hasn't been amazing but there are no service time advantages and Arcia is not an upgrade over Buxton. Arcia will likely be a backup OF/DH/bench bat type. If he isn't dealt. 3) That bit ties into why Morneau makes little to no sense for this team. Arcia is Morneau except younger, cheaper and with upside. In addition, though Kepler will be in the minors to start the season for service time reasons, he will be coming back up early in the season and provides another left handed bat. When he comes up, someone needs to be cut and it's not going to be Justin Morneau. You're likely to see a placeholder guy like a Robinson/Nunez type or a Reynaldo Rodriguez to start the season - a guy you can cut or send back to the minors. Justin Morneau only makes sense if he's going to be on the team the whole year, which seems unlikely with the young guys continuing to come up and the backlog of DH/1B types. This is your opening day position players IMO. I'm assuming the Twins move Plouffe (not a given of course!): RF Hicks 2B Dozier 1B Mauer 3B Sano DH Vargas LF Rosario SS Escobar C Catcher* CF Buxton (if Buxton goes supernova next year, this lineup gets insane!) Bench: Arcia (4th OF/DH) Santana (utility, ability to play the OF is why I think he beats Polanco) Catcher2 Nunez (has the ability to play 3B and can be an emergency OF if need be)** When Kepler comes up, then I could see Nunez being cut/traded or a bullpen arm being sent down. * Biggest question this offseason is can the Twins trade Plouffe for a 3-4 year solution at catcher. I hope so because the free agent market is slim pickings and Plouffe is the Twins' greatest area of surplus that I can actually see them trade (no way the prospect conscious Twins are going to trade Kepler/Rosario/Buxton/Hicks - they're risk adverse ). ** The one issue when you bring up Kepler (assuming there is no injury) is who backs up 2B/3B. Sano isn't a Brian Dozier I-play-everyday kind of guy and is going to need some DH days. Escobar/Santana/Polanco have some experience in the minors at 2B and to a lesser extent, 3B but it is pretty minimal. I wonder if the Twins will have Mauer and/or Kepler take some time at 3B this spring? Kepler never played there in the minors and Joe obviously hasn't but it would be useful if one of them could do an adequate job.

Allow me to retort: (1) If the delay in training over the winter was effecting his preparation, you would expect him to be struggling in April. This is not the case: 2015: .804 OPS 2014: .725 OPS He's not having disastrous starts to the year so that's not it. He just is having period where he struggles (May in 2015, May and June of 2014 - with the caveat that months are a super arbitrary way of delineating time.) (2) Saying he should be over his concussion is foolish. We know so very little about head injuries. It took Morneau three years to get back to being 3/4 of the player he was before. To say that concussions are nothing because Mauer said "I feel good" to a reporter is insane. It would be the equivalent of getting upset that the Lions didn't win the Super Bowl when Matthew Stafford said they would in a preseason interview. Mauer could have no effects from concussions or he could still be dealing with it. We don't know and he doesn't know - suggesting that the potential for concussion issues is some sort of hogwash is pretty indefensible. (3) Blaming Mauer for excuses by the press is ridiculous. The press just want to hit a deadline and have a topic that gets people interested. "we don't know" while accurate, is unlikely to satisfy readers. So they come up with something definite. You're building a case on puff pieces. It's equally disingenuous to say that Mauer is making those excuses. Joe has never been amazing with the media ("pour it on twins fans, pour it on.") and so if they ask him a question, him saying "oh yeah, it's been tough with shifts" does not mean he's blaming shifts. ----- I love me some Mauer and have been distressed by his last two years. But I'm not ready to give up on him because he's not that far removed from being his old self. To me, next year becomes a year where if Mauer isn't the same, he's maybe not coming back but until then, I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Robinson is not much of an upgrade defensively over anyone but Hunter and they have Buxton already for that. I imagine that Santana or even Fryer would make it over Robinson - the Twins will be pinch hitting for SS/C and will thus be looking for people who can subsequently play those positions. Also, Nunez and Escobar have played OF if it comes down to something like that in extras. I also would not be surprised to see the Twins keep Pelfrey over Milone. They did it to start the season. My three would be Duensing, Santana and Vargas with the caveat the Milone is off and Pelfrey is on. (Note that this is not what I want, just what I'd expect).

Not sure what being in shape really matters for a pitcher, especially a relief pitcher. http://multimedia.mmc.com.do/multimedia/cdn_uploads/2015/06/Bartolo-Col%C3%B3n.jpg

But at the end he had Kepler, ABW, Polanco - it's not like he had no elite prospects. I think the main issue I have with this is not what you're saying (Dougie seems like a fine manager and the Twins should worry about losing him if Molitor blocks his way) but the proof you use. I'm not so sure that win loss record means anything for ML managers, let alone minor league managers with the constant roster changes and the focus on development over winning (e.g. Tim Hudson wan't allowed to throw his ML-ready splitter in the minors because they wanted him to work on his change up - it's not about winning really). A better argument for Dougie would center around players he had got better under him, that elite players moved up quickly and struggling prospects improved their trade and their stock. Or that he is maximizing bullpen performance with smart moves and has clear strategies for who to play. Wins and losses mean nothing. We also haven't seen Dougie manage the media, a big part of the ML job. I also am not sure that the best solution is moving Dougie to the majors on the staff. If you want to keep other teams from noticing him, keep him in the minors. I can't remember another team raiding another's minor league system for a manager (I'm sure it happens but very rarely) but they go after ML coaches all the time. Obviously you run the risk of Doug leaving the organization if he feels slighted but barring that, he seems more useful in the minors. The Twins need to let Dougie know he is next in line and have a clear concept of what Molitor's long term outlook is.

Santana pitching game 163 would be great. I guess this idea has been around for a few weeks: http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2015/09/08/twinsights-should-the-twins-line-up-ervin-santana-for-potential-game-163/

That doesn't change the way the Twins would evaluate the effectiveness of their starters. All of them are known entities with the possible exception of Hughes and those guys will all be getting regular work, just an extra day of rest. This is really just about maximizing the value you get from Santana (who has only pitched half a season) and using it to rest guys you might need in the postseason.

True. Maybe they should take it one day at a time. Send him out there on three days for the Tigers start and then see how he's feeling. Not much risked but a lot to gain. If he feels okay have him do the Indians start and then you can play Game 162 by ear.

Unless Hughes pitches well today. Then the only to skip is Pelfrey but I might just want everyone else to get an extra day's rest.

Gibson is currently lined up to pitch Game 162. If the Twins somehow had it wrapped up (hard to see how that happens but who knows?) they could start Nolasco in a meaningless game. You may be correct in not messing with Santana. Then again, this seems like time to throw the kitchen sink - you might have to gamble on Santana's effectiveness and hope that any ill-effect is balanced by skipping guys or having other guys more rested.

So as it stands, Santana would pitch twice more this season, Sunday at the Tigers and the first game of the KC series. That seems sad for a guy who is pitching lights out for the Twins right now. So here's a thought. What if the Twins sought to maximize Santana by starting him on three days rest the remainder of the season? That would get him pitching Saturday against the Tiggers, Wednesday at Cleveland and then the last game of the season against the Royals - the closest to a playoff game he might get. As an added bonus, if the Twins didn't skip anyone that would shift Kyle Gibson's slot into a potential Wild Card game or Game 163. He's the eligible pitcher I most want to pitch that game so that could be huge. Alternatively, it would allow the Twins to skip any ineffective starters in that last week (e.g. Pelfrey, Hughes) if they felt the need. There’s also the bonus of giving some of your younger guys (Gibson, Duffey) and a recently injured Hughes an extra days rest between starts, potentially making them more effective for the regular season or playoffs. Santana has only pitched on three days rest once in his life, way back in 2011, so there’s no track record to lean on. He should be well rested though, as he didn’t pitch the first half of the season. With a clear end of his season, he can leave it all on the field these last three starts so physically, it doesn’t seem too daunting to ask of him. Anywho, just an idear. Thoughts?

Naw, a sweep would be nice. Two out of three is needed. If they can then go 5-2 on that road trip (tall order of course but we are at a time of the year where greatness is needed) then they should come into that KC series in very good shape. You can't control other teams but the Astros don't seem like a team that is going to go streaking, especially given six road games and their dismal road performance.

I’m fine with Hunter coming back as long as it is very clear that it is as a 5th OF/right handed bench bat. I don’t cotton to the people saying the Twins need a lefty bench bat – between Vargas and Arcia they have the left hand side covered. A right handed bat off the bench is actually more vital since they don’t have that readily available (especially since Nunez is likely gone after this year and he’s been the primary right handed option off the bench - though Vargas can do some RH pinch hitting too). So I’m okay with Hunter back with one of two caveats: (1) Not at the expense of Arcia. If the Twins include Arcia in an offseason deal, I’m good with Hunter taking his place as 5th OF (I go under the assumption that Kepler is up by mid-May to be a 4th OF – there’s always a Shane Robinson type until then). If Arcia doesn’t get traded, there is no reason for Hunter since Arcia is 5th OF and Kepler is up soon to be the 4th OF. If Kepler is the 4th OF, he can get enough starts filling in for Buxton/Arcia/Hicks once a week (and spelling guys at 1B and DH) to make it work. If Arcia and Torii are both there and Kepler becomes only a DH/1B guy, I’m not behind it. (2) If they keep Arcia but trade Plouffe, I can also be okay with it. Arcia and Kepler and Vargas split the backup 1B/DH/4th OF role while Sano moves to third. Kepler can grab the odd OF start too, though Arcia would be the primary backup. In this scenario I would like to see Mauer/Kepler taking some grounders at third so that the Twins aren’t starting a SS at 3B on Sano off days/injured time. I hope/think both could be passable there. So it comes down to whether or not Hunter is willing to take on that role. The money doesn’t matter to me. They can pay him $10 million a year for all I care if the role is right. The Twins aren’t going to be hampered by money this year. They likely won’t be making huge free agent signings: their only positions of need are C and pitching. There are no catchers of note on the free agent market (I can’t see Wieters leaving Baltimore and there is a lot of risk with his recovery and your other guys are Dioner Navarro, Alex Avila, Brayan Pena etc. None of those guys are all that exciting or are going to break the bank if it’s the direction the Twins go.) The Twins are likely going to have to trade for a C (and Plouffe or Arcia could be part of that deal). The Twins are also unlikely to go after a free agent #1 starter (and outside of the top few you can argue they have better internal options unless they do radical things with Hughes/Santana) and the Twins approach to relief pitching never costs much. So the money is not the big deal. It’s really would Torii take on that limited role? I think he might not be adverse if he’s not already set on retirement. He’s not going to get a starting job in MLB anymore and he seems happy being back where he started. He might like the idea of one or two more years mentoring the young guys with the understanding that he then becomes a minor league instructor (I shudder to think of him as a hitting coach but maybe a bench coach? I don’t think he’s an x’s and o’s manager kind of guy but he’d be great in a clubhouse and working as a base coach or outfield coach). He’s 55 hits from 2500 and 4 2B from 500 – he may relish a chance to hit some landmarks too. He’s not a hall of famer but he’ll be on that ballot a few years before falling off. This just adds to his resume. Conclusion (this got long): Under the right circumstances and in the right role, Torii Hunter would be an excellent addition to the 2016 team. But those conditions have to be there (a lot depends on how the Twins attack catcher).

Molitor likes to pinch run too much but Duensing isn't on Molitor. Someone has to pitch and he used his other options. It was a crapshoot and he lost.

What is interesting about this is not that he's had a bad second half this year but that you think he had a bad one last year. His splits before and after the break last year: .242 .340 .436 .776 .244 .352 .387 .739 There's a fall off in slugging but an increase in OBP. Overall this is not much of a drop off. The narrative is almost entirely driven by the differences in his home runs, which we focus on too much. Dozier had 18 HR to 5 HR between the two halves but also had 16 doubles and no triples vs 17 doubles and one triple. As the first half has 100 more at bats than the second half, the real story is a little less pop with some home runs turning into doubles. This myth of Dozier falling apart in the second half last year colors the way we look at Dozier this year. He's slumping but a strong finish here could change that entirely. As for trading him, that's ludicrous. He's on a fairly team friendly deal and the Twins cupboard is bare other than him. You'd be starting Nunez at 2B or transitioning an unproven Polanco to 2B at the major league level. I don't have to look up his numbers to know that isn't an improvement. Did we all forget the Alexi Casilla/Luis Rivas years? The Twins haven't had a competent 2B since Knoblauch. We should enjoy Dozier, not trade him away. This is just another reactionary Twins Daily post. Why can't we ever focus on the positives? In the most amazingly fun year of Twins baseball this decade, most articles, posts and comments descend into ripping into TR/Mauer/TR/Molitor/TR/Pelfrey/TR/Boyer/TR/Fien/TR. We get that the Twins aren't perfect and that we're all smarter than TR but lets keep things a bit more positive? This is supposed to be fun.

Yeah, the NBA has this issue too. The minute both LCS's are over, they should take a day and start the World Series. You have to trust that your product is good enough that people will tune in no matter the day of the week.

I disagree here. I love that there is less of an incentive to move players at the deadline. It's always made me a bit uncomfortable that teams can add significant pieces at the deadline. Hopefully the wild card makes it so teams just add some small pieces and there are less huge transformations.

Agreed, I love that teams have to fight so hard for the division because it's worth it. The Wild Card has become a true Wild Card - totally random.

The only thing I could see doing it is hitting into a shift with guys on - there may be an argument for hitting away from the shift with a guy on first. That's not the case in this one since Plouffe is not overwhelmingly shifted but if a guy who gets shifted has double play numbers that went up the last two years, I imagine that would help explain.

Underrated moment from last night that you may have only seen if you were at the game: after Josephius Mauer hit his double in the ninth, there was a long delay before they brought in Nunez to run. When Nunez belatedly popped out of the dugout to run, Joe pounded one fist into his palm to express his sadness at not getting to run. Love seeing the guy want to run there. JMP

No that was the year they changed the rules. The first tiebreaker was a coin flip, it was totally insane. The Twins had handled the White Sox that year. Total BS. That's why they changed it the next year.

Ver intrigued by what the Twins will do long term with a guy like Pat Dean (and to a lesser extent Logan Darnell or Taylor Rogers). With a ML squad that has trouble getting May and Berrios slots in the rotation and a lot of talent pushing its way up the organization, it's tough to see a starting opportunity for Dean. I know its always good to have too much starting pitching but Dean seem too buried in the depth charts to even be useful as depth. Would he have value on the trade market? Hard to see as he doesn't profile as a top of the rotation starter and doesn't have an elite minor league record. Will the Twins try to turn him into a reliever? He doesn't have the K rate to profile as anything more than a middle reliever. At 26, there isn't much room left for growth and it seems time to make a decision on Dean.

Why did the Twins not call up Reynaldo Rodriguez in September. They lack a right handed pinch hit weapon off the bench on days when Torii is playing. Seems like a nothing-to-lose and everything-to-gain proposition. Also surprised that Beresford didn't get a call up. Wouldn't want to see him play a ton but he would be useful as a pinch runner/hitter in an extra innings game. If it gets too crowded in the dugout, have some of those guys watch from the clubhouse until they're needed. And finally, agree with Jeremy. I might have ranked ABW a bit higher but he has a right to his opinion and its not based on nothing. The K's for ABW are an issue which will prevent him from being anything more than a 4th OF in the majors UNLESS he can get them under control. He is only 23 so that's a strong possibility but he hasn't so far and if you look at this year, he didn't do it yet. That's an issue.