ThejacKmp

Yeah, that's why I said longer inning rather than long inning (the Swarzak four inning guy). I imagine Tonkin won't go above two innings but we might see him stretched out to that more often, especially in a game that isn't particularly close. He seems like the first guy into a game that a starter Nolasco gets shelled in.

sad to see Duffy go but there is perhaps a silver lining or five: 1) Duffey likely needs a third pitch to have long term success as a ML starter (there are exceptions but those usually aren't fastball, curve pitchers). AAA is a great place for him to work on making his changeup more viable. 2) Nolasco will have a significantly shorter leash than Duffey might have had with a strong spring. That means that if Berrios has a great first month, the Twins will have a much easier time moving Ricky to the pen/trading him and bringing up Berrios. That’s a good thing. 3) Unless another starter is needed, Duffy probably will be overlooked because of Berrios. But he will be the 7th starter and we will likely see him again (pretty rare to get even four starters going the entire year). He's a very nice 7th starter. 4) Milone is likely not going to be with the Twins next year - he makes sense at $4.5 million but next year that should jump to $7 millionish and I can’t see the Twins keeping him – he’ll be dealt if he’s a back-of-the-rotation starter or he won’t be offered arbitration if he’s not. Duffey moves nicely into that spot next year even if he never gets a shot this year. That of course assumes Nolasco will be out of the competition over the offseason which doesn't seem a bad bet. If he’s bad this year, the Twins will pen/cut him next year and if he’s a back-of-the–rotation pitcher, Pelfrey showed us that teams will take on that kind of player in the short term. Only way Nolasco is firmly in the Twins plans next year would be if he really has a very good year. Yeah, that's not happening. So longest-wait outcome for Duff is next year. 5) It does free up a bullpen spot that Nolasco would have been wasted in. Tonkin becomes your longer relief guy (a good role for him to adjust to the majors in low leverage situations) and Pressly makes the team. Pressly is a much better bullpen piece than Nolasco would have been and Tonkin gets a final chance to show he belongs. Still sad to see Duff in the minors but it might help his development, shouldn't be for too long, might make it easier to bring up Berrios and improves the pen.

Agreed. The trade was terrible because of the level of prospect and the return received (not because of Capps performance but because you got a non-elite reliever) but Ramos has never turned into more than an oft-injured catcher.

My wife is Filipino and they do insane things with spam.

I dunno, that's pretty big planning considering all that can effect games and schedules (rain even in FL, a guy needing a few days off because of soreness, another pitcher getting hurt and everyone moving around etc.) It really feels like Duffey had a pretty close-to-guaranteed spot (quotes from Molly seem more concrete than the order in which guys pitched in short stints a month before the season) and shot himself in the foot with a terrible spring. If it means that he can go back to AAA and develop that changeup, maybe it's a good thing in the end? Especially if Ricky is easier to replace than Duffey when Berrios is ready? I can't see Ricky blowing teams out of the water, it seems like the best we can ask for from him is league average pitching. If Berrios is hot, Ricky would be an easy candidate to replace. It also opens up another spot in the pen, assuming Duffey is in AAA like he should be if he's not gonna start.

What's wrong with spam for that matter?

1) no way Santana gets a shot before Kepler unless service time is involved. Santana is a utility guy whose best shot at an everyday role is in the middle infield. 2) it would be really insane if no one outside of catching and the middle infield gets hurt this year. After service time considerations are no longer an issue, he's the first guy up if park/Arcia/mauer/plouffe/Sano/Buxton/Rosario goes down. I would love if everyone stayed healthy but that's just not very realistic. He may not play every single day but molitor would find a way to get him out there 3 or 4 times a week (like he will hopefully do for Arcia). 3) even if that happens, if Kepler is tearing it up at aaa, you'll see someone moved in June or July (likely plouffe?) the twins love Kepler and he can absolutely force his way to the majors. Particularly if it's in conjunction with Sano moving to third if his rf defense is unplayable.

I really disagree that it's worth mentioning. It has happened one year, not multiple years. There's no thread to show that this is anything but a random occurrence. His GB% didn't change in any meaningful manner that suggests some new approach at the plate - this is the definition of a random occurrence. There were more guys on base with less than 2 outs when he hit his ground balls this year. That is not something worth mentioning when considering Plouffe's future. If it happens again this year, then we have something to talk about. For example: Pedro Alvarez is a 29 year old corner infielder (1B) who is not known for his speed. His 2015 batting and games played numbers are very similar to Plouffe's. He has a much higher GB to FB ratio (1.16 to 0.69) and a similar LD%. So you would expect Pedro to have hit into more DPs that Plouffe. Yet he grounded into 6 DPs (7% of his 91 opportunities) while Trevor Plouffe grounded into 28 DPs (22% of his 126 opportunities).* They both hit into 12 in 2014 and have generally maintained percentages around 10%-12%. Pedro Alvarez is as unlikely to hit into 6 DPs in 2016 as Plouffe is to repeat his 28. They will both almost certainly regress to the mean. It's really not worth worrying about Plouffe's supposed double play propensity or taking it into consideration when thinking about Plouffe's upcoming year. This "propensity" is based on one flukey year and has no statistical basis for recurrence. I wouldn't value Alvarez any more because he has a newfound ability to avoid double plays nor would I value Plouffe any less because he is suddenly prone to double plays. It has nothing to do with my projections for the two in the upcoming year. * I understand there are other ways to make a DP but I think we can call them all grounded for brevity's sake.

Yeah, I think the larger point would be that these lists are largely variable year to year - Plouffe would never get credit for "only" hitting into 12 DPs the year before so there's no reason to constantly mention his 28 DPs last year. There's not much rhyme or reason to the thing (exception: Tejada, Miguel). At some point you're assigning numbers for things that are largely beyond a guy's control. We all had caution last year about Danny Santana's BABIP and should do the same here. Plouffe is unlikely to see that spike in DP% again. Interestingly, in 1997 Craig Biggio had 619 at bats without grounding into a double play. And in 1935 Augie Glen batted 646 times without grounding into a double play. Those are kind of amazing feats.

Thank you for addressing the idiocy of focusing on double plays hit into. it's a variable stat based on opportunity - basically rbi and babip in the same stat. Time to stop obsessing about mauer and plouffe on this front.

I think the other issue is that there are two managers. A manager could set up a guy to face the heart of the other team's order only for the other team to start subbing in different guys. It seems like an interesting tool for some insight but not something to make a call on?

Agreed. I hope the Twins give him days off for Nunez/Santana/Polanco so he isn't gassed down the stretch like last year.

This doesn't seem like the dire situation everyone is saying. Ricky's agent answered a question and said he wanted to start. There's no indication that guys in the clubhouse are upset or that Ricky is sulking or anything. He's out competing for a job and this seems like one of those bridges one crosses when one gets to it.

In his defense he busted his butt off to get back for the end of next year when he could easily have shut it down. This seems more like agent posturing than some fundamental flaw in Ricky.

I'd like to see him do well because I'd like to see him establish some trade value - injuries before the season or as an added bonus out of the pen. I just don't see how he can make the starting rotation. May and Berrios may be out of the running but Hughes, Santana, Duffey and Gibson are all locks or near locks and I can't see the Twins giving up having left-handed Tommy Milone in that 5th spot. Nolasco seems like a long-reliever/spot-starter, which is not a bad spot for him. So I want to see him do well because I think it would take an injury to get him into the rotation and if that happens, I'd like to see him pitch well for a few months before giving way to Berrios.

I dunno, maybe I'm just 2014 Dozier obsessed but I heard so much talk using raw numbers from half to half on FSN broadcasts and on the Twins Daily site. I don't think people have such a clear concept of the difference. In fact, I think you seized on a big part of that in showing that the Twins played 83 and 79 games in 1991 and 89 and 73 last year. That's a 12 game swing in a shot period of time - maybe people are used to a more equal halves thing which is no longer true?

Yeah I was referring to people (this site and in the media at large) saying that Dozier has a pattern of bad second halves, as they mistakenly use raw numbers and the difference in games played to characterize 2014 as a Dozier fade. My bad for not making that clearer.

Yeah, I should have been more clear. Last year was no good. But people (here and in the media at large) regularly cite a recurring pattern of second half fades in Dozier. This is based on a view of 2014 which is heavily skewed by an obsession with raw stats (particularly HRs) and a lack of understanding of the differing lengths of the two halves. Dozier does not have a pattern of second half fades: he has one fade last year*, a 2014 mistakenly called a fade and a 2013 where he was significantly better in the second half. Sorry for not explaining that better! * Which I in part tie to the fact he was banged up but never got a day off - one great thing about Polanco coming up is that we should see the Twins have a viable alternative to Dozier so he can get some rest and stay fresh for the stretch run.

I had always thought he tailed off badly that season, since he had 19 homers at the All-Star break but finished with "just" 29. It's really time for us to find some other nomenclature besides "first half" and "second half" of the MLB season. The two "halves" are not the same, as the first one is significantly longer than the second one. When we take raw numbers and halves into consideration, we always end up mistakenly disappointed by the second half (see Dozier, Brian).

Yeah, I'm very surprised he hasn't been able to get into a platoon somewhere - I figured he would fit perfectly with the annual Tampa Bay Rays aging veteran first base platoon but the Rays already have James Loney signed for the rest of the year. It still seems like somebody somewhere might like him in a specific role like that. Only thing I can think is that he doesn't want to be part of a platoon or is holding out for a bigger salary?

Yeah, I more wonder if he'll accept a AAA assignment. There might be some room for him at DH if Park and Arcia struggle (not totally out-of-this-world) but even then Kepler would need to not be ready since Sano to DH and Kepler to RF would make more sense. The Twins just don't seem like the right place for him - it's curious why he chose the Twins. I would think that Tampa would have made more sense with their love of a 1B/DH platoon.

I think the issue with May isn't so much that he moved to the pen last year but that he seems bound there. So I'd disagree that May to the pen was illogical - it may not be what I'd do or you’d do but you can see the rational at the time. To wit: (1) May arguably had the best stuff for transitioning to the pen. He throws hard and dropping the frequency one of his off-speed pitches allowed him to really become a more dominant pitcher. Other starters might be 6th or 7th inning guys in the pen but May seemed like a late-inning option. That’s more valuable and something the Twins really needed at the time. (2) May was also in his first year in the majors and limiting his innings isn't the worst thing in the world. In essence, the Twins could ride arms they didn't have much future investment in and keep May fresher for the future. That’s good economics. (3) May wasn't pitching particularly well as a starter. He had a mid-4.00s ERA and got shelled some. I think we all saw glimpses of a bright future so that’s not to say he was awful, just that he didn’t make a great case to be the best guy for right that moment. (4) The main part though is that there wasn’t another obvious candidate. While Hughes has experience, he got Cy Young votes the year before and was your opening day starter so he didn’t make sense. Gibson was pitching better and doesn’t profile as well out of the pen. You signed Santana to big money to start so he wasn’t going to the pen (plus you’ll never get another free agent starter if you force a guy who did sign to the pen). Milone gave you a lefty in the rotation, doesn’t profile well in the pen and was the better pitcher at the time. And that leaves Pelfrey. It’s easy to use hindsight to say that Pelfrey sucked late in the season but at the time the Twins made the change, he was pitching better than May. In fact, early in the season Pelfrey carried the Twins and was kind of the staff ace the first two months of the season (as bizarre as that sounds now). It’s hard to throw that guy in the pen. And even with his struggles he still finished with a better ERA as a starter than May (too lazy to look up FIP etc. Sorry!). So really, May made the most sense for a team that was surprisingly in contention (if they had been 15 games out it would be a totally different story). Now hindsight is 20-20 and I think we all wish that the Twins had moved Pelfrey to the pen and left May in the rotation. May could have improved as the season went on and certainly couldn’t be as rough as Pelfrey was down the stretch. But to say that moving May to the pen had no rational is a bit much – he wasn’t pitching well and was really the best candidate for being an impact arm in the pen. The thing that is worrisome now is that May seems stuck in the pen this year, where he is likely seventh in line for a starting spot (behind Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Duffey, Milone and Berrios – I think he beats out Nolasco). That’s not the worst thing in the world for this year since the Twins do have a lot of good options and some of the logic from last year holds true this year. But long-term, we want the Twins to see what May looks like in the rotation. Milone and Nolasco will likely be out of May’s way next year and you have to hope that the glut of good young relievers will make May expendable in the pen but there will still be five guys ahead of him along with some young arms (Thorpe, Gonsalves etc.) hopefully pushing the majors soon. It’s concerning to think that May might not get back to the rotation after this year. He doesn’t seem like an ace but a good #3 pitcher is exceedingly valuable and he would be wasted in the pen long term. P.S. One hidden aspect of this that doesn’t get talked about is the Carlos Gomez factor. We all saw the Twins push Carlos Gomez because he was the main guy in the Santana trade and the Twins wanted to show fans some tangible results. That desire to showcase the positive results of a trade doesn’t seem to be a factor for Mays and Meyer. Both of those guys were billed as potential top of the rotation starters but the Twins seem comfortable moving both of them to the pen. I understand that Span/Revere is not the same as Santana as far as showcasing goes but the Twins are handling these Mays and Meyer very differently. They aren’t being pushed to be starters so as to show that the trades were good. It’s kind of refreshing on one level but also kind of odd since both of these guys should be starters long term (I still believe in Meyer! Randy Johnson comparisons are the best!). It’s a source of hope for me that the Twins will eventually want May to be a starter (and hopefully will keep working with Meyer in that role as well). P.P.S. Back to Pelfrey. If I’d been in charge of the “who goes to the pen” decision, I would have ignored what I said above and moved Pelf to the pen. Not because I expected him to be bad but because I’ve always thought that he would make a pretty good reliever. He really only throws two pitches and while he doesn’t have the strikeout numbers to become a true 8th/9th inning guy, his tendency to get groundballs would play well in a 6th – 8th inning “get out of a jam” role and you’d expect that his K rate would spike as he was able to air it out a bit. That’s why I always thought Pelfrey was a bit loopy to insist on being a starter at the beginning of 2015. The Tigers clearly disproved it with their insane spending this offseason but at the beginning of last year, he didn’t seem like a guy who would ever get a multiple year deal as a starter and seemed more likely to be headed towards the one year $3 million contract or spring training invite side of the starting rotation market. One good season as a reliever with a little spike in the K rate due to increased velocity might have made him one of those three years $15 million to $18 million guys. It never made sense to me that he was so gung-ho on being a starter. I guess he was right in the end but I’m still intrigued by what he could do in a pen.

It's a more difficult position but it's also a position he played through the minors and has a good comfort with. I know the Twins are now selling Sano's move to the OF as natural but we all know that's cover-your-ass corporate speak for "we didn't find a deal we wanted for Plouffe so this is the next best option." The only real variable I could see changing it would be if Sano was somehow a really good OF. But I think we can agree that's pretty unlikely. I disagree that the Twins braintrust makes illogical decisions. In particular, they will want to see Kepler in the majors very badly if he hits at all so any serious injury to Mauer, Plouffe, Arcia/Park etc. is going to make moving Sano in to the IF or DH the obvious choice.

Oh I love Vielma - he is one of those sneaky prospects who I'll be keeping a close eye on because if he can continue to hit .270 on the way up he will be a big part of the Twins plans. A great defensive shortstop changes a team. But even in a best case scenario he's not going to be ready this year. Next year is even a huge maybe. Switching Escobar to 3B doesn't change any of the above scenarios. You're still not able to justify the offensive downgrade of moving one of those guys in. Plus Santana, Polanco and Nunez are all worse shortstops than Escobar. You'd be downgrading your defense at SS. The only way I see Escobar leaving SS is if he leaves the starting lineup. The position is finally his.

That list doesn’t make much sense. If Plouffe is traded or hits the 60 day disabled list, it's hard to see the Twins not moving Sano in to 3B as they are better every single scenario you raised. To wit: 1) You'd need a time machine if you think Engelb Vielma is ready for the majors. He hasn't played above High A and put up a .627 OPS there. I understand his glove is excellent and can hopefully make up for his bat someday but that someday is key – he's years away from being ready for the majors at the plate. Guys who hit that poorly in A+ don’t make the jump to the majors after a half season in AA. Even guys like Kepler don’t do that. A September call-up would represent an insanely good, best-case scenario for him this season. 2) Polanco started 10 games at 3B in the minors, all in Rookie Ball in 2011. I know that middle infielders can often make a switch to the hot corner but that would be asking a ton for him to do it in the majors. He likely would be worse than Sano with the mitt so he'd have to hit much better than whoever they put in the OF (since he'd also have to make up for the difference in OF defense between Sano and an experienced OF). Polanco may play 3B in the future if Sano is an OF or 1B long-term but it's hard to see him ready this year, especially since the Twins will be prepping him to be ready to take over at 2B or SS if there is an injury. 3) Danny Santana played one game at third in Rookie Ball, even less than Polanco. And even if you did decide that Santana was going to replace Plouffe, you would certainly be better off moving Sano to 3B and putting Santana in left (with Rosario in right) as Santana’s experience in the OF (not extensive but more than Sano!) and his better range would make that the optimal defensive configuration. So definitely not Santana. 4) Nunez is more interesting. He’s certainly the 15 day disabled list option for the Twins and has started 83 major league games at 3B so he clearly is the only other real defensive option which presents a potential upgrade over Sano. I won’t compare their defense cuz that’s boring so let’s assume that Nunez is slightly better. Problem is, his offense (career OPS .696, last year .654) likely doesn’t offset the benefit of getting an experienced OF to replace Sano. It’s hard to see the Twins not taking the opportunity to check out Kepler or ABW3 if Plouffe went down. That doesn’t even take into consideration Arcia, who would certainly get a shot at playing every day and represents a pretty big upgrade over Nunez offensively. And finally, Mastroianni’s career OPS of .564 is likely close enough to Nunez that the defensive advantages would playing him every day a better option (substitute Benson/Sweeney/Rodriguezif you don’t love Darin). So it’s super difficult to see any situation where a long or permanent absence by Plouffe doesn’t lead to Sano being your every day 3B. In order to not do this, they would have to sacrifice both defense (even if Sano is okay in RF, the Twins have much better defensive OF options in Santana/ABW/Kepler) and offense (Sano to 3B allows you to get PT for Arcia/Kepler/ABW etc.) Here’s the one Plouffe injury scenario where Sano stays in the OF (and yes I’m knocking on wood like mad): - Plouffe hits 60 day DL (because if he’s traded, Sano at 3B makes sense no matter what because that is his likely home for the next few years) - Kepler, Arcia, Santana and ABW have all either gotten injured or are so ineffective that you can’t even think about playing them full-time - Benson, Mastroianni, Sweeney and Reynaldo Rodriguez have all tanked in AAA - There is no decent OF on an expiring contract the Twins can trade for or sign as a free agent Yeah, looking at that, I’ll guarantee that Sano is your 3B if Plouffe hits the 60 day DL or is traded. Cuz that ain’t gonna happen (knocks on wood). The Twins are saying Sano won't go to 3B because they want him to settle in as a RF but if fate dictates that Plouffe can't play 3B long term, it's ludicrous to think that anyone besides Sano would end up there.