ThejacKmp

I'd actually prefer some multiple nice high-upside low minor league arms - guys who can give a boost in mid to late 2018. I think those are the types that teams looking for a 29 year old second baseman are more likely to be willing to deal as they go all in. I know the Twins have gotten burned before on that with Meyer and to a lesser extent May but losing Dozier doesn't significantly weaken your team since Polanco looks MLB ready and I'd rather see the Twins gamble then get a #2 MLB pitcher (I can't see a situation where a team with a #1 pitcher is looking to deal him for an old 2B so I think a #2 with a few years of control left is more likely if you go "who can help the 2017 Twins").

I like this but the problem is that teams who trade away top caliber starting pitching don't tend to want a slugging 29 year old second baseman. Maybe the Mets? White Sox aren't trading Sale in division but otherwise they're the quick rebuild types.

I tend not to read everything in these (though I love them). I scan through checking for names I'm interested in - Palka and the relievers in AAA, Gonsalves/Stewart/Jorge/Jay in A/AA, Garver and Nick Gordon etc. I've definitely added Kirilloff to my list these past few weeks.

That's a pretty small sample size too. He hasn't been that good before 2016. Not to say that those numbers don't matter but "slash lines say it all" is a bit of a small picture view. In the same way an Eduardo Nunez might not be so good next year, Grossman has a solid chance to fall back to earth. I don't mind him competing for the 4th OF job in spring training but unless Palka and ABW look not ready, it makes no sense to go with Grossman. He's pretty terrible defensively and his upside is decidedly limited - important for a developing Twins team. The question that works against him is, "What is Robbie Grossman's role on the next great Twins team?" Pretty sure the answer is ball boy. Holding out for "great value" is insane. No team is going to value Grossman based on a half season of value. The Twins should get to spring training, use Grossman as an emergency OF plan and then hope that some team will give them anything for him.

RUSSELL MARTIN: JRM Murphy is cheap, Martin is being paid $16 million a year and you expect a lot more. Being as good as Kurt Suzuki since May 1st isn't exactly a ringing endorsement. Obviously this is one year and Russell Martin could turn it around. But the evidence behind that isn't great and I’d bet that a lot of teams wouldn’t want to take Russell for the last three years of the contract if he passed through waivers – that’s a lot of risk for the money at that age. The reason for that isn’t just Martin, it’s free agent catchers in general. If you go back to 2011 (as far back as I could go online) and look at catchers who signed deals 3 years and longer, Russell Martin beings to look like a best-case scenario: - McCann (5 for 85 starting in 2014) has taken an immediate drop off from the .800+ OPS he put up to start his contract. His 5-HR-pop props up his OPS and he’s been relatively durable but he’s trending down in average and OBP pretty quickly. With three years left on the deal, to get rid of him the Yankees will likely have to eat a large chunk of the $34 million+ he is still owed. We’ll maybe see that this winter or next summer since Sanchez seems ready. - Carlos Ruiz (3 for 26 starting in 2014) has put up OPS’s of .717, .572 and .722 in the three years of that deal. He’s also caught 110 games, 86 games and 42 games those three seasons and is in the Suzuki camp of not getting any interest at the deadline. - Jarrod Saltalamacchia (3 for 21 starting in 2014) was so bad he was released after one year of the deal and is a career backup since. - Miguel Montero (5 for 60 starting in 2013) has one year with a .754 OPS and the rest under .700 including his current campaign – a .632 OPS isn’t the worst but as his batting average is .190, it seems reasonable to assume that the OBP is a bit inflated as he hits in front of the pitcher most days. He’s not a bad catcher and the contract hasn’t been awful by any means but he’s certainly not a ringing endorsement of the merits of the free agent catcher. It’s also important to note that Montero signed his free agent deal at age 29 (like Ramos will) so a few years younger doesn’t necessarily mean there isn’t the risk of a marked drop off. AS FOR RAMOS: I’m not sure where you’re getting that Ramos is going to get 4 years. Everything I read said 5 years and $60 to $70 million – he’s at a position of scarcity and he’s on the open market after a career year, someone is going to give him 5 years to try to get him away from the Nationals. Maybe the market drops out on him but I really don’t see it happening given the paucity of other options. Where are you getting four years? It seems like he would do at least as well as McCann/Martin etc. You are correct that he’s going to be 29 when he signs the deal but that doesn’t make it much less scary, especially with his injury history. A 5 year deal takes him through his age 33 season. And again, the difference is that while Ramos is having a career year this year, he’s only averaged 86 games a year over the past five years and only exceeded 100 twice. He’s a year off of a .616 OPS year (in his longest campaign to date of 128 games). You could argue that the injury history means he has less miles on his legs but you also could see them as signs that he’s brittle. Catchers don’t tend to be healthier and better as they age. All of which brings me back to my original point that Wilson Ramos is a bad target. The history of free agent catcher signings provides a number of warning signs and the “successes” are decidedly guarded – Russell Martin has a chance to be the best of those and even he’s not trending in the right direction. The Twins would be making a pretty ill-fated gamble going after Ramos, especially since a Ramos signing isn’t going to suddenly make them a contender.

You can quibble over word choice with play vs. catch but the point remains. Catchers catch more than 40% of the time and AA is well past the time to be coddling guys due to injury. Garver not catching 60-80% of the games is my biggest concern with him. Something doesn't add up and it's either Garver's catching performance or the Twins developmental plan. As is, the idea of him catching every day in the majors in September or next year is laughable. How is he going to do in the majors what he isn't doing in AA?

At some point he's going to need to catch every day if he's going to play in the majors. If you aren't doing that at AA, I have to think there's something else involved. I'd get if it was 60-40 in Garver's favor but it's the opposite. The guy needs to catch. It's either that the Twins aren't comfortable with his defense or they've stupidly packed too many catchers in the upper minors. I think it's the latter but am worried about the former - Garver is less exciting as a rich-man's Josmil Pinto. It's time for Garver and Turner and JRM to be on different levels where they can play every day.

The Twins need to maximize the catching their guys do next year if they want to focus on catcher development. My ideal depth chart assuming the Twins don't bring in another Suzuki: MLB: #1A and #1B: Centeno and JRM (Not sure what order, this is a placeholder year and JRM's hitting is the deciding factor - let's just say that the Twins chances of getting above .500 won't be based on catcher hitting so there's no reason not to throw them at the wall and see what sticks. JRM and Centeno get a chance to sink or swim. If they sink by June, well, either Garver looks ready or you're trading for next year's version of Kurt Suzuki). AAA: #1: Garver #2: Paulino (The Twins need to get Garver catching a normal workload if he's going to be ready to do that in the majors in September 2017 or early 2018. Paulino is an acceptable depth catcher.) AA: #1: Turner #2: Jairo Rodriguez (Turner gets a chance to repeat a level and see if he can take some steps with the bat. He's at best a poor-hitting backup as is so it's a big year for him.) No idea on Paulino and Jairo contract status. Either one can be replaced with another equivalent catcher off of waivers if they move on. That sweet profile of Jairo makes it seem like he'll stay I imagine.

I'd be more excited if he was going to catch every day in AAA. He caught less than half the time in AA and now he's in AAA where he's in another timeshare with JRM. Maybe he and JRM should have switched spots? I just want them both to play every day because they are the two most plausible internal options for 2017 and 2018.

This. This. JRM is 25 years old and has a decent track record of acceptable, average catching in AAA and the majors. He had a horrendous year but that doesn't completely obliterate what he did before. He shouldn't be handed a starting job but he's not a bad place holder in a timeshare with Centeno while you get Garver another year where he actually catches every day (he's not even catching half the time in AA this year BTW, we all forget that when we espouse the crazy "get him to the majors, he can hit" plan of attack). JRM still has upside, which is more than you can say for any veteran placeholder.

Really? You're ready to give up on JRM after one bad year? He'll be 26 next year. In 99 MLB games in 2014 and 2015 (236 at bats) , he put up a .718 OPS. With the Yankees he put up a .735 AAA OPS. I'm not saying he's amazing or that this year hasn't been awful but to think that one bad year means that you should "100% assume that Murphy is not an MLB catcher" seems like a pretty extreme reaction to a relatively small sample size. Guys have off years and to think that Garver jumping from catching half the time in AA to catching in MLB is the best way to do things is crazy. JRM is a nice short term plan for next year and you can always have the Centeno/Hicks/Hermann types in the wings if he fails. JRM still has a pretty decent amount of upside so it's better than signing a Suzuki clone. Garver should get an entire year in AAA where he is the primary catcher. If he gets a cup of coffee this year it should be to get some experience at what MLB is like with the occasional start - throwing him in on the regular after AA seems like a good way to set him back a step. Let's not overreact to JRM's bad year. Or if we do, let's at least own up to it if he has a steady year next year.

The Twins should not do that. Look at Russell Martin this year, #2 of his 5 year deal. His OPS is .677. Maybe that's an aberration but since he's a 33 year old catcher, I doubt it. He's going to be a backup level catcher earning $16 mill/year for the next three years. You see similar things with every single free agent catcher signed to more than 3 years. It's just a bad market - age and wear and tear are an unbeatable force. And Ramos adds in the uncertainty of being injury prone and posting two subpar seasons before this year's good year. I'm also not interested in trading for another catcher. Great prospects almost never are available (teams hold onto them) so you're trading for another average guy like JRM and the price is usually prohibitive. The Twins have acceptable internal options for next year in JRM and Centeno (JRM may just have forgotten how to hit but his track record in the majors and minors indicates this is likely an aberration) while Garver gets another year in AAA catching every day (leave Stuart Turner in AA for Pete's sake). Garver may not turn out to be an everyday catcher but he should be at least a platoon with a veteran known for defense.

I don't think it's possible to paint yourself out of a corner. You can paint yourself into a corner but then you can't do anything with the paint to get out. And if you never paint yourself into a corner in the first place, it's not called painting yourself out of a corner, it's just called painting.

Not sure that Molitor will be the one making this decision, I imagine this is more of a GM call (with input from the coaching staff of course).

Will Kirriloff get a promotion before the season is over? Anyone know if the Twins tend to do that?

What's funny is I remember talking about Gonsalves vs. Thorpe on TD several years back and I was always on Team Thorpe. Oh well.

1.) Hughes is probably toast Not sure why everyone has written off Hughes. He's signed to a contract that will make the Twins want to start him and every report I read about him said the Twins expect him to be ready for spring training. The surgery he had was not particularly crazy. Will he be any good next year? No way to know and I wouldn't gamble the house on it but to say he is toast and won't be in the rotation seems pretty naïve. If healthy, he likely has a spot sewn up and will have to lose it through performance early in the year. 2.) The rotation is awful w/o a pair of veterans like Santana and Santiago. Every year people complain about prospects being blocked by a theoretically deep rotation and every year the rotation sucks and the prospects get plenty of chances. And you want to just run it back? Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and hoping for a different result. The problem for me with that last sentence is “the rotation sucks”. Let’s stop bringing out veteran pitchers who suck. Santiago is Ricky Nolasco and Mike Pelfrey in a different guise. Why would anyone want to keep blocking prospects (even marginal ones) with gutter trash? Let the young guys play from the beginning, at least you’ll know who they are and if they fit your plans. 3.) Santiago is actually an average pitcher and nothing like those yet. Even you are putting the word "yet" there because we all know it’s the most likely outcome. If it hasn’t happened already: Santiago has a higher FIP in 2016 than Nolasco and Mike Pelfrey. Maybe there's something about Santiago that lets him consistently outpitch his FIP but I highly doubt it. And even if Santiago is somehow average (and not below average like I suspect), the Twins shouldn't be making one year commitments to average pitchers. They need to be looking for guys who can be part of the future and have some sort of upside. That ain't Santiago. 4.) I doubt May is headed back to the rotation Since May got at least a nominal shot at the rotation last spring, it’s hard to see him not getting that same shot with a new GM in town. And even if it seems unlikely he’ll make the rotation, that’s kind of my whole point – if you have Santiago, it’s that much harder for May to earn a spot in the rotation. Without Santiago, you’d be looking at Santana/Gibson/Berrios/Hughes and a real competition between Duffey, May and Mejia for the 5th spot. As is, those three will be competing to be the guy if one of the other five gets hurt. It’s too easy to slot May back into the pen at that point. If you want Trevor May to have a legitimate shot at the rotation, he needs to have a slot to compete for in spring training. Once Spring Training ends, May is likely to be passed by the Duffeys and Mejias in AAA who are already stretched out. Santiago makes it unlikely May will have that opportunity. 5.) You will get plenty of chances to see the likes of Wheeler, Dean and their mediocre MiLB K rates. First of all, Wheeler has a decent AAA K rate this year, the same as Santiago has in the majors. Obviously that will likely dip in the majors but that’s again, that’s kind of the point. Wouldn’t you rather see what a Wheeler can do in the majors than have the utter lack of upside that is Santiago? Santiago makes sense if the Twins had a solid starting rotation, were looking to compete for the division and needed a 5th starter. He’s not part of the Twins of the future and thus is a waste of a rotation spot.

I don't know that we need a SS. Escobar is fine in the short term and Engelb Vielma is hitting .300 in AA with Nick Gordon looking good in A ball. Vielma should get a cup of coffee next September and be ready for 2018 with Gordon coming right behind him in 2019. Escobar is a good enough SS for 2017. I also am not as big on going for catching. It's always expensive and I'm not sure how much of an upgrade the guys available by trade will be on JRM (disastrous year but a solid minor league and major league track record indicates that's an aberration) and Garver (who needs another year of seasoning but should be ready for 2018). Centeno is a fine backup catcher in the meanwhile and you can always get a vet on a 1 year deal to span the gap until Garver is ready. So I want pitching, lots of high-upside starting pitching. Find a contender with a gap at 2B and get some young pitching. The free agent market this offseason is weak (one-hit wonder Descalso is the cream of the crop while Neil Walker is the only other guy to get moderately excited about) so it should be a good market for the Twins to get something.

I don't know if Dozier is the face of the franchise. Sano, Buxton, Kepler and Berrios are all guys you can market around. This isn't 2014 where we're milking Danny Santana for all he's worth. There are legitimate building blocks. I expect the new GM will look at moving Polanco and Dozier but I imagine Dozier will get a lot of interest as someone's solution at 2B for the next two years. If the trade brings back starting pitching prospects in the high minors (not an unreasonable request) I think the fan base will buy it. People like Dozier but this isn't a team with only one guy to root for.

Polanco played some 3B in rookie ball and in AAA this year. Not a ton but some. Dozier will be on the block this winter. The Twins won't be actively trying to trade him I'm sure but the right offer would do it. I'm cheering for him to get 30 HR so they can get a nice haul for him. He should be attractive as a Top 5 2B with two team-friendly contract years left.

I'd hope so but I don't see the Twins doing it. I know they'll have a new GM but even that new GM is likely to think that $8 million or so is a cheap price to pay for a #4 pitcher. And he (or she!) will be right. I'm just not sure it's the best route since I'd like to see more youth options. If Hughes is healthy (and he should be) I think he'll be back in the rotation. He may have a short leash but they'll want to give him another shot. And that's not crazy, it's been a bad last few years but he did get Cy Young votes in 2014. Even if he isn't in the rotation, that 5th spot will go to May/Meija/Duffey.

Ack! Don't say that about Wells and Thorpe! Bad omens on the injury front!

This is an interesting point. I think it would have more credence if TR was still in charge but with a new voice, I don't think we can say "well at least they won't make a dumber choice" and make that our reason for liking a move. We should assume competence til proven otherwise. And there is a log jam - outside of a trade of Santana this offseason, Santiago will absolutely take up a spot someone who will be on the next good Twins team could have.

So next year you're looking at a most-likely starting rotation of: Santana Berrios Hughes Santiago Gibson Santiago gets in the way of Meija getting his shot, Duffey continuing to work in the rotation, May getting back into the rotation. And even if Hughes doesn't come back and all three of Meija/Duffey/May don't work out, we'd be better off getting some of those non-prospects like Wheeler/Dean/Rogers/Albers a shot. Santiago isn't going to be on the next good Twins team and those guys might be. It'd be one thing if Santiago was 25 and might become a better pitcher but he's not. He is what he is and what he is is something the Twins really don't need next year. Nolasco to Santiago is way more of a sideways move than I am comfortable with since he takes up a rotation spot with below average pitching and no upside.

My issue with this is your assumption that it's either trade Santiago or release him. The most likely outcome is the Twins keeping him for his last year of team control. That's the big reason to DFA Ricky - you have an extra rotation spot open for young guys/reclamation projects instead of a "they are who we thought they were" veteran. They saved no money and instead of an easily-released/long reliefed Ricky they have a guy they're going to be tempted to hand the ball to 32 times.