Matthew Taylor

Since the start of last offseason, the Minnesota Twins have acquired six players age 34 and older. Are the Twins missing out on younger players and having to settle for older ones? Or have they perhaps found a market inefficiency in acquiring aging stars?Over the years major league baseball players have been getting significantly younger. According to an article posted in Forbes, from 2007-18 the average age of MLB players has dropped a full year (29.1 down to 28.1). Much of this has been driven by analytics and teams realizing that younger players, in general, contribute more to teams than older players. According to research done by FiveThirtyEight, in 2017, players age 32 and older accounted for 18.6% of plate appearances in the league, while only accounting for 12.9% of league-wide WAR, a percentage that has been consistently declining over the years. With all of this analytical evidence showing that major league baseball is trending younger and teams are shying away from signing older players, why have the Minnesota Twins been pursuing aging stars over the past couple years? What value is there in acquiring these aging stars? By investing in aging players, the Minnesota Twins have gained a tremendous amount of salary cap flexibility. Older players require fewer years on their deals and the Twins have seen this by inking one-year deals to Nelson Cruz (38), Sergio Romo (36), Tyler Clippard (34), Blake Parker (34), and Rich Hill (39) over the past two years. Signing these short term deals has allowed the Twins to keep their future books open so that they can sign extensions to their own players as well as pounce on a long-term deal of their own in Josh Donaldson. While Donaldson represents a 34-year-old getting a longer contract, when compared to the seven year, $245 million contract that was issued to Anthony Rendon, you can again see the potential value in signing an older player. The other value that comes from investing in older players is the experience and leadership that they bring to a ball club. This is something that cannot be quantified but is invaluable to an organization. Nelson Cruz represented this so much for the Minnesota Twins in 2019. In addition to being a mentor for fellow Dominican, Miguel Sanó, Cruz has leaned on his experience to share wisdom with the entire clubhouse. Kyle Gibson recounted a speech that Cruz made after Game 2 of the ALDS saying, “When a guy like that speaks, everybody listens and perks their ears up and takes it in, because he's been in a lot of different situations and maybe some situations that have a lot more pressure than this one.” Similarly, with guys like Sergio Romo, and now Rich Hill and Josh Donaldson, the Twins are adding guys who have been around the block, will never be afraid of the moment, and can share their wisdom and experiences with the entire clubhouse. In order to squeeze maximum production out of their players, the Twins organization has put a ton of money and resources into investing in health, rest and recovery. These measures certainly help older players, who present more of a health risk. From a piece in the Star Tribune, Phil Miller notes that the Twins have done things like push back bus times to the stadium, frequently cancel batting practice and map out regular days off for players. Additionally, according to a Pioneer Press piece, a health initiative has been implemented up and down the Twins organization where sodas were replaced with organic juices and minor leaguers are now being fed healthy, catered meals. Another thing that the Minnesota Twins organization has done to invest in keeping players healthy and prolonging the careers of their aging stars was implementing a nap room last year. The most famous user of this nap room has been 39-year-old, Nelson Cruz. In a quote to the Pioneer Press Cruz said regarding the nap room, “It keeps you more alert. Anything you can do to perform better, you do it. You’ll be able to react better, so definitely that’s a plus for a hitter”. While relying on older players presents a definite risk, the Twins are doing all they can to mitigate that risk by investing in the resources that keep those older players fresh and healthy. Additionally, Rocco Baldelli has shown that he wants to provide players with frequent off days, will have players spend more time on the injured list than may be necessary and overall implementing a team culture where players can feel comfortable speaking up regarding any injury concerns they have. The old “Twins Way” of grinding through injuries has been pushed to the wayside, and rest and recovery has been brought to the forefront so that players can perform to the best of their abilities and their bodies will allow them to do just that. What do you think about the Minnesota Twins recent investment in aging stars? Do you think this is an organizational misstep? Or have the Twins found a market inefficiency that they are now exploiting? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

The Minnesota Twins lineup in 2019 was lethal, hitting more home runs than any other team in major league baseball history. Bringing in a guy like Josh Donaldson only makes this offense more terrifying. How should the lineup look in 2020 and what will Donaldson add to this offense?When building the 2020 Minnesota Twins lineups there are a few different things that you want to keep in mind: Rocco Baldelli has demonstrated how much he wants to split up his lefties and righties throughout his lineups.Generally you want on-base guys at the top, with power in the middle (an easy thing to do when every batter on this team gets on base and has power).With such a deep roster, there’s no wrong way to build this lineup.With that being said, this is how I believe the Minnesota Twins should set up their lineups: Lineup vs RHP Luis Arráez ( L ) - 2BJosh Donaldson ( R ) - 3BMax Kepler ( L ) - RFNelson Cruz ( R ) - DHMiguel Sano ( R ) - 1BJorge Polanco ( S ) - SSMitch Garver ( R ) - CEddie Rosario ( L ) - LFByron Buxton ( R ) - CFThis lineup sets up so that no more than two right-handers will hit back-to-back. Arráez makes a lot of sense to hit leadoff against right-handers, off whom he got on base 40% of the time with an OPS of .887. Donaldson has spent 45% of his career plate appearances in the #2 spot of the lineup so keeping him there and moving Polanco’s flexible handedness bat down the lineup makes a lot of sense. Lineup vs LHP Mitch Garver ( R ) - CJorge Polanco ( S ) - SSNelson Cruz ( R ) - DHJosh Donaldson ( R ) - 3BMax Kepler ( L ) - RFMiguel Sano ( R ) - 1BEddie Rosario ( L ) - LFByron Buxton ( R ) - CFLuis Arraez ( L ) - 2BThe #1 spot was actually Garver’s most common spot in the lineup in 2019, where Baldelli often placed him against left-handed pitchers. Against left-handers in 2019, Garver got on base 43% of the time with a 1.170 (!!) OPS. Against lefties I think it’s best to have Arráez in the #9 spot. He only slugged .298 against lefties in 2019, but still got on base at a 40% clip which lends itself well in moving back to the top of the order with runners on base. Here we have Donaldson hitting cleanup to cap off a potential of four straight right handers who mash lefties, with Polanco having the versatility to break up the run of righties should we get later in ball games and left- handed pitchers come in. While these batting order exercises are fun, the reality is that these are going to change on a game-to-game basis. In 2019, the Minnesota Twins used 145 different batting orders with their most common batting order only being used in seven games. What this exercise does show us, though, is just how talented and deep Josh Donaldson makes the Minnesota Twins lineup. To further demonstrate how impactful the Donaldson signing is, I thought it would be fun to end this article by highlighting 5 things that Josh Donaldson did better in 2019 than any of his new teammates: Had a better BB% (15.2%)Had a higher K looking % (as opposed to going down swinging)Had a higher exit velocity on breaking balls (90.6)Got to a 3-1 count in a higher percentage of PAs (14%)He was unlucky — had a greater difference between BA and xBA (-.010)Bottom line ⁠— this is going to be fun. What do you think about the suggested batting lineups above? How would you lay out your batting order in 2020 if you were Baldelli? What areas do you think Donaldson will most improve the Twins in 2020? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! MORE JOSH DONALDSON CONTENT — FEINSAND: Twins to Sign Josh Donaldson — Josh Donaldson, Bringer of Rings — What’s Next for the Twins After Signing Josh Donaldson? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

I'm super intrigued to see how Dobnak does in 2020. Now that there's "tape" out on him we'll see how teams adjust. He's definitely going to get a shot as our 4th (?) starter to open up the season!

Derek Falvey said in November that Buxton is ahead of schedule and on track for Spring Training.

Your points re: Arraez are fair. I'd argue that there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about him as a long term staple of this team, though. His near 30% line drive rate and excellent plate discipline (2.8% whiff rate and 27% chase rate) show that his 2019 was no fluke. The defense is the biggest knock against Arraez. We'll see how that progresses (or regresses) in 2020.

Thanks to those who pointed out error stating that 101 wins was a team record. This was a mistake and has been edited.

The Vikings did what the Vikings do and were knocked out of the NFL playoffs on Saturday. While their loss was extremely disappointing for Minnesotans everywhere, it did offer one piece of excitement — baseball season is officially here.Pitchers and catchers report to Fort Myers exactly one month from today and there is a lot to be excited about. Here are 10 reasons to be excited about the Minnesota Twins in 2020: 1. The Bomba Squad is back After breaking the MLB record for home runs in a season in 2019, the Minnesota Twins retained all but two of their key batters (Cron and Schoop) — bringing back 244 of their 307 home runs from 2019. You should expect more bombas and more excitement as the Bomba Squad will be getting their encore in 2020. 2. Year 2 of Rocco Baldelli Coming off of a season where he won Manager of the Year and pushed a lot of the right buttons in 2019, Baldelli will now be coming into 2020 with a year of experience under his belt. His bullpen usage was questioned by many, but he is beloved by the clubhouse and his experience should serve him well in 2020. 3. Byron Buxton is healthy After spending 72 days on the injured list and getting shoulder surgery this past September, Buxton should finally be healthy again to start the 2020 season. After posting an .827 OPS in 87 games to start the year, Buxton was finally breaking out as the player who we all hoped that he could be as he topped the Twins’ prospect list for years. Now healthy in 2020, he should be one of the centerpieces of this team. 4. José Berríos in his age 26 season I wrote last week about how history shows that 26 is the age that pitchers will typically reach peak velocity and strikeout age as they enter into their late 20s. Berríos has been a very solid pitcher up to this point, but there is plenty of reason to believe that he could have ace potential in 2020. Can he put up the same production in September that he puts up in April? That will be the million dollar question. 5. Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda are back While the front office still hasn’t come through on their promise of bringing in “impact pitching” this offseason, the two biggest moves they have made this offseason have been bringing back Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda on excellent contracts. Odorizzi was an All-Star in 2019 who posted a career best 4.3 fWAR and Pineda who was outstanding for the Twins down the stretch last year with his 2.96 ERA over his final 14 starts. To bring back these two starters along with Berríos next season should provide the Twins will solid top end pitching again next season. 6. The Twins’ bullpen has potential to be excellent In 2019 the Twins bullpen finished second in the baseball in fWAR, and from August 1 through the end of the season no bullpen had a better FIP than that of the Minnesota Twins. The Twins will be bringing back all of their core pieces from 2019, in addition to the veteran right-hander Tyler Clippard. 7. A full season of Luis Arráez Luis Arráez was an unexpected revelation for the Minnesota Twins in 2019. After getting the call to the majors in May, Arráez never relinquished his spot on the 25-man roster. Instead, he flourished with the Twins to the tune of a .334 batting average and .838 OPS in 92 games with the Twins. The most disappointing thing about Arráez’s 2019 season was that he wasn’t called up to the club sooner. Being able to count on Arráez for a full season is just another reason to be excited about this ball club next in 2020. 8. Prospects will get a chance to shine One of the most exciting things about the 2019 season for the Minnesota Twins was getting to see all of the prospects who were called up and contributed to the team. Devin Smeltzer, Lewis Thorpe, Cody Stashak, Brusdar Graterol and Luis Arráez, among others, all put a memorable stamp on the 2019 season for Minnesota. We should see a similar number of prospects coming up this season that are ready to contribute as well. I would expect Jhoan Duran, Travis Blankenhorn, Brent Rooker, Luke Raley and Nick Gordon to join the team in 2020 as well as potentially the long-awaited debut of Alex Kirilloff. 9. Opportunities to improve the team are out there Twins Nation has understandably been frustrated with the front office and their lack of impact moves so far this offseason. Even still, the Twins have plenty of opportunity at hand to improve their team before the season or at the trade deadline. Minnesota has the financial flexibility to take on contracts as well as the prospect capital to go after whatever player interests them on the trade market. The roster the Twins bring into spring training might not be the roster they have come September or October. 10. This team is REALLY good Finally, lest we all forget, this team is REALLY good. The Twins won 101 games last season and a +185 run differential, good for fourth-best in all of baseball. They led major league baseball in 2019 in home runs and were top five in baseball in doubles, SLG, OPS and wRC+. They have a formidable starting rotation (albeit without an “impact arm”) and a potentially great bullpen. This team will be good in 2020, and we should all be really excited about baseball season finally arriving. Why are you excited about the Minnesota Twins in 2020? Leave a comment below and start the conversation! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

You're definitely right and thanks for calling that out. I certainly intended to use the word "support" rather than "prove". I didn't use Ryu as an example just because he didn't come to the majors until he was 26 so using his stats in South Korea were more of a challenge. Cole didn't have his best season at age 26 but seems to have hit his peak at ages 27-28. The aging curve isn't perfect and correct in 100% of instances but is a general curve of the history of baseball. Being a year or 2 around the aging curve certainly helps support the aging curve as well even if it wasn't exactly at age 26.

While the Twins struck out on signing an “impact” starting pitcher via free agency this offseason, they still do possess an impact starting pitcher of their own heading into the prime of his career — José Berríos. What does history tell us about starting pitchers entering their age-26 season in the majors? Let’s discuss!The aging curve for starting pitchers in baseball probably looks like what you would expect. Starters come into the league with flaming velocity and a high walk rate, their stats improve as they age until they peak, and then we see a steady statistical decline from that peak until the end of their career. What age does that peak come, though? Download attachment: Pitcher_Curves_Starters.png As you can see from the graph above from Fangraphs, the peak age for starting pitchers comes at 26. It’s after age 26 that pitcher velocity and strikeout rates begin to really decline and walk rates and FIP begin to steadily rise. It’s at age 26 that we can expect top performance from starting pitchers, which is good for Twins fans as their ace heading into the 2020 season, José Berríos, will turn 26 in May. Until this point in his career, Berríos has improved each season and followed the general aging curve shown in the graph above. His velocity (slightly) and walk rate (greatly) have declined while his strikeout rate and FIP have improved in each season. If Berríos continues to follow the aging curve that he has followed throughout his career, we could be looking at a peak Berríos season in 2020. Another thing that I looked at while I was studying the starting pitcher aging curve was to look at other recent examples of starting pitchers and how their age 26 season compared to the rest of the career. For this exercise I looked at starting pitchers who were free agents this season as we have them all fresh in our minds. Download attachment: BumStrasDK.jpg In the graph above I compiled statistics from Madison Bumgarner, Stephen Strasburg and Dallas Keuchel before, during and after their age-26 season to see how they compared. I highlighted in green when their age-26 stats represented a “peak” meaning they improved upon their career stats up until their age-26 season as well as showed a career decline in that statistic following their age-26 season. As you can see, most of these players posted career bests in their age-26 season, supporting our aging curve discussed above to be an accurate depiction of a pitcher’s career. So what does this mean for José Berríos? To this point in his career, José Berríos has posted a 4.21 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 8.8 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. Expecting Berríos to improve on those career statistics in 2020 seems like a certainty. But just how much will he improve? If he can continue on his career trajectory and follow the starting pitcher aging curve, I think we should all be really excited about what next season could bring for the Puerto Rican right-hander. He could really be the ace that we were unable to acquire in free agency. What do you think we can expect from José Berríos heading into 2020? Leave a comment below to start the conversation. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Yeah it's hard to say. He really didn't miss any games until they shut him down in the middle of September. Not to say he wasn't playing through an injury throughout the season, but who's to say.

Nice article, Nate. Very well written and great arguments (especially surrounding the defensive stuff). One thing that needs to be discussed about Josh Bell is just how different his season from June through the end of the season compared to his hot start: Beginning of season through May 31 (242 PAs): .343/.405/.704 (1.109) -- 178 wRC+ June 1 through end of season (371 PAs): .232/.342/.476 (.818) -- 107 wRC+

Homer Bailey's IP before the 2019 season (when he pitched 163 innings): 2018: 106.1 2017: 91.0 2016: 23.0 2015: 11.1 There needs to be more pitching acquired. Homer Bailey simply can't be counted on to give you 150 innings in 2019. If he gets injured in April and no other moves are made you are left with Berrios, Odo, and prospects. I truly believe an impact trade is still coming.

Matt Braun did a really nice job writing about what made Stashak so special in 2019 a couple of months ago. http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/cody-stashak-was-more-than-just-a-command-wizard-in-2019-r8537

Additional discussion question: Of Wisler, Stashak and Littell, which pitcher do you think has the best chance of moving into a consistent high leverage role in 2020?Of May, Duffey and Rogers, which pitcher do you think has the best chance of taking a step backwards and moving down into a consistent low leverage role in 2020?For me, I think Zack Littell has the best chance of becoming a top-flight reliever for Minnesota next year. He already saw a 2 MPH increase in his fastball from 2018 to 2019 and at just 24 years old I wouldn't be surprised if he sees another velocity jump (and K% jump) in 2020. From July 21 to September 14 Littell appeared in 11 games without allowing an ER. For guy looking to take a step backwards, I think it could potentially be Tyler Duffey. He was elite in 2019, but his track record before that is still so shaky so it wouldn't completely shock me if five years from now we all look back and say "remember that year in 2019 where Tyler Duffey was randomly amazing?". I think he'll be really good again in 2020, but if I'm reaching for a potential step-backwards guy, he's my pick.

After the signings of Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard, the Twins’ bullpen appears to be set for 2020. But what will the pecking order be for the bullpen next season? Let’s dig in and talk about it.Heading into 2020, rosters will be expanded to 26 players, and most likely the Twins will divide up their roster to have thirteen position players and five starting pitchers. That leaves eight arms in the bullpen for us to figure out how they will fit into the pecking order. I will rank them in order from lowest leverage guys to highest. In 2019 the Twins had 26 players pitch out of the bullpen so obviously the bullpen pecking order will be continuously changing, but for the purpose of this exercise I’ll work out what I believe will be the order on opening day. Honorable Mentions A few guys that I don’t believe will make the Opening Day bullpen but should end up in the bullpen at some point. Ryne HarperFernando RomeroJorge AlcalaLewis ThorpeDevin SmeltzerSean PoppenThe Lowest of Leverages8. Matt Wisler The first move that the Minnesota Twins made this offseason was claiming RHP Matt Wisler off waivers from the Mariners. Wisler was a former highly regarded prospect who had yet to break out in the majors. He had a disappointing 5.61 ERA in 2019, but his 63/16 K/BB ratio is certainly appealing. The Twins handing Wisler a guaranteed contract makes me think he will make the Opening Day roster, however I don’t think he will be entrusted in any scenario other than the lowest of leverage spots to begin the year. Like, Twins are up 13-2 in the seventh inning-type spot. Low Leverage 7. Cody Stashak Stashak was a surprise breakthrough for the Minnesota Twins bullpen in 2019. While he had been a great pitcher in each of his stops in the minor leagues, he didn’t show any signs of struggle adjusting to major league hitters. Stashak faced 104 batters with the Twins in 2019 and walked just one (!) of them. Stashak is still young and doesn’t quite have the track record of the other bullpen arms, leaving him in a low leverage spot to start the 2020 season. Medium Leverage 6. Zack Littell At this time last year, Twins nation was all up in arms over the lack of impact additions to the bullpen by the front office. If at that time I told you that the Minnesota Twins “medium leverage” bullpen pitcher would be a guy who threw up a 2.68 ERA and a 172 ERA+ the year prior you would be absolutely thrilled. That’s the position that this Twins’ bullpen is in now. Littell was outstanding for the Minnesota Twins in 2019, but with the amount of depth in this bullpen, he’s in a position where he is sixth in the bullpen pecking order and expected to be a medium leverage guy. Medium-High Leverage/Platoon Guys 5. Tyler Clippard When the Twins signed Clippard last week, they acquired a two-time All-Star with over 10 years of big league experience. Clippard has a career 3.14 ERA and is coming off of a great season with Cleveland where he posted a 2.90 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP. What makes Clippard extremely valuable for the Twins is that even though he is a RHP by biology, he acts as a lefty, allowing a career .187 BA to left-handed hitters. I expect Clippard to be a sixth- or seventh-inning pitcher and be called upon to face left-handers in medium-high leverage situations in 2020. 4. Sergio Romo While Tyler Clippard has shown extreme success against lefties throughout his career, Sergio Romo has done the same against right-handed hitters. In his career, Romo has allowed righties to hit just a .577 OPS compared to .677 OPS for lefties. I expect both Clippard and Romo to work in similar roles in 2020 as medium-high leverage/platoon guys, dominating opposing lefties and righties respectively. High Leverage 3. Trevor May A once-promising starting pitching prospect for the Minnesota Twins, Trevor May has finally put it all together in the bullpen over the past two seasons. Working under Wes Johnson, May was able to get his average fastball velocity up to 95 MPH, which he threw a whopping 62% of the time in 2019. With a K% of 30, the Twins will need to count on May in big spots in 2020, and I have confidence that he will come through. 2. Tyler Duffey There was no bigger revelation on the entire Minnesota Twins team in 2019 than Tyler Duffey. Coming into the 2019 season, Duffey had a career 5.46 ERA. In 2019, though, Duffey quickly pushed himself into the upper echelon of relief pitchers in all of baseball with his 2.50 ERA, .201 BAA and 34.4 K%. Duffey was frequently called upon as the “fireman” in 2019, and I expect him to be further cemented in as a high leverage pitcher in 2020. The Highest of Leverages 1. Taylor Rogers There aren’t enough superlatives to discuss how good Taylor Rogers was in 2019, finishing the season with a 2.61 ERA, 32.4% K%, and 2.1 fWAR (second best in American League). Additionally, Rogers was excellent in high leverage positions, being thrown in to 50 games where he faced high leverage situations, he allowed just a .626 OPS. Rogers is the cream of the crop in terms of baseball relief pitchers and he will undoubtedly be first in the Twins bullpen pecking order heading into 2020. What are your thoughts on the bullpen pecking order that I laid out? Any changes or disagreements? Do you have a good feeling for where the bullpen is at in 2020? Leave a comment below and start the conversation. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

In 2015, the Kansas City Royals mortgaged away their future in order to win their first World Series in 30 years. Heading into 2020, the Minnesota Twins have to face a similar question. Is it worth selling away the future in order to capitalize on the present?After coming off of a Cinderella season in 2014 which saw them come one game shy of winning the World Series, the Royals made the conscious decision to push all of their chips to the middle of the table in 2015 and gun for a title. Let’s dive into how the Royals were aggressive in pushing for short-term success and how it impacted them in the long run. The first way that the Royals were extremely aggressive in pushing for short-term success was through their free agency spending. The Royals upped their opening day payroll from 2014 to 2015 by $21.6MM after signing the likes of 34-year old Álex Ríos, 32-year old Kendrys Morales and 31-year old Edinson Vólquez to sizeable contracts. While Morales and Vólquez were instrumental in their championship run, all three players aged quickly and did not contribute to the club past 2015. The jump in short-term spending also hampered their ability to keep some of their young stars like Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer who all left in free agency just two years later. Additionally, the Royals mortgaged away much of their long-term success via the trade route at the deadline in 2015. If you’ll remember, this is the deadline where the Royals acquired Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist, who were both rentals and left in free agency at the end of that season. In both of these moves the Royals gave up blue-chip prospects in Brandon Finnegan and Sean Manaea. While they were successful in their goal of winning a World Championship, it’s fair to ask if it was worth it for the Royals. Just four short years later, the Royals now find themselves in one of the worst situations in baseball. They are coming off back-to-back 100-loss seasons with little room for optimism as they have the fifth-worst farm system in baseball, per Fangraphs. But winning the World Series reinvigorated the Kansas City fanbase and they’re all about this team that won a title just four years ago, right? Well, not exactly. After winning the World Series in 2015, the Royals’ attendance numbers have dropped each season, culminating in the fifth-lowest attendance in baseball in 2019, averaging just 18,500 fans/game. Heading into the 2020 season, the Minnesota Twins are at a crossroads. Do they go all in now like the Royals and throw big money at aging stars like Josh Donaldson and Hyun-Jin Ryu who may hamper their cap situation down the line? Do they trade away their top prospects in order to get an ace pitcher? Doing this might get them to the ALCS or World Series in the next year or two, but could put their long-term future in jeopardy. Or do they make some savvy mid-tier free agency moves and trade for a low-cost high-upside player who won’t require the prospect capital of an ace pitcher? Doing so might put a title more in doubt but will extend this window that is just opening for the Twins and provide five to ten more years of excitement like was provided by the Bomba Squad in 2019. What do you think the Twins should do? Do you care if the Twins are irrelevant in five years as long as they win a title in the next two years? Let’s hear your thoughts in the comments below! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Statistics in baseball are a funny thing. Often stats are cherry-picked to best support the narrative we want to push, leaving out any that contradict that narrative. I’ll show you what I mean with the current crop of potential Twins' free agent targets by pushing a “Sure Bet” and “Washed Up” narrative for each of them …Since we have talked so much about Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Josh Donaldson this offseason, I will use my personal “next three” offseason targets for the Minnesota Twins in this exercise. Dallas Keuchel Sure Bet: Dallas Keuchel is a multi-time All-Star, World Series champion and just four years removed from winning the Cy Young Award for the Astros. Over the past six seasons, Keuchel has only had an ERA over 3.75 once, and simply does not allow home runs, with a career HR/9 of just 0.91. Keuchel finished 2019 incredibly strong, posting a 2.55 ERA in 53 innings from Aug. 14 through the end of the season. Washed Up: While Keuchel has a Cy Young to his name, that was four years ago and he simply isn’t the pitcher he used to be. Over the past two seasons, Dallas has posted a 4.06 FIP and a very pedestrian 6.9% K%. Keuchel will be 32-years-old heading into the 2020 season, and operating with a fastball that averaged a velocity of just 88.4 MPH in 2019. Julio Teherán Sure Bet: Julio Teherán is just 28-years-old and has seen his ERA decrease in each of the past three seasons, highlighted by his 3.81 ERA in 2019. Teherán is coming off of a 2019 season in which he posted a career best K/9. With spin rates on his fastball and curveball in the 70th and 84th percentile respectively, Teherán certainly has the pitching arsenal to be successful. Additionally, Teherán is an incredibly healthy and durable pitcher, as evidenced by >170 IP in each of his past seven seasons. Washed Up: While Teherán had a solid 3.81 ERA in 2019, the numbers point to this coming more from luck than skill as shown by his 5.26 xFIP. Teherán has been walking more batters than ever before, posting a 4.30 and 4.28 BB/9 in each of the past two seasons. Teherán has posted an xFIP of greater than 4.00 in each of the past five seasons, and with a fastball that has declined in velocity each of the past three seasons, things might be getting worse rather than better for the Colombian right-hander. Eric Thames Sure Bet: From 2017-19, Eric Thames trails only Cody Bellinger, Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt in OPS by first basemen (min. 750 PAs). Thames’ power is legit, too. In 2019, of first baseman with at least 300 plate appearances, Thames was fourth in SLG and second in ISO. Thames is not butcher at first base either, posting a positive DRS for Milwaukee last season. Washed Up: While Thames put up solid power numbers in 2019, it largely came at the expense of his plate discipline. In 2019, Thames was third of all first baseman with a K% of 29.3. Thames also has not shown that he can be a consistent option at first base, playing in less than 100 games in three of his five seasons in the MLB. Thames isn’t getting younger either — while he has only been in the majors for five seasons, the first baseman is already 33-years-old. Additionally, moving away from the hitter-friendly confines of Miller Park would seemingly call for a statistical decline and disappointing 2020 for Thames. Baseball is a numbers-driven sport and statistics are extremely vital in evaluating the past and predicting the future performance for a player. As you can see from the examples above though, narratives can change completely based on what statistics are being used (and withheld) for a given player. What are your thoughts on the various narratives being pushed for this crop of free agents? How do you navigate reading the narratives that people write or tweet and formulate your own opinion when there are so many statistics out there? Leave a comment below and get the conversation started. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Great analysis. I'd agree with you and lean MadBum. He's no slam dunk, but FA pitchers hardly ever are.