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drivlikejehu

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Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    The Twins aren't really a different team than expected, they were just fortunate to win more in April than such a team would be expected to. That's good of course, and will make it much easier to finish with a win total in the mid-70s, but... it's a long season for a reason.
  2. drivlikejehu
    I was against it at the time and haven't changed my mind at all. Correia has unsustainable LOB% and HR% numbers. He's not a different guy. Signing him for two years made no sense then and still doesn't. Pitching performances are not evenly distributed. Mediocre pitchers have 'good' stretches all the time. It's just part of the game. Getting all worked up over it shows a lack of understanding.
  3. drivlikejehu
    Walker lasted until the third round because he has significant vulnerabilities in his approach/swing. His power has never been in question. There's nothing wrong with where the Twins have assigned him (and I liked the pick a lot) - it just means that his numbers have to be taken in context.
  4. drivlikejehu
    He's 21 1/2, which is a little old for a prospect in low A ball. Hopefully he keeps playing well and gets to Fort Myers.
  5. drivlikejehu
    Jim Callis I think has Manaea at #4, and there are other commentators that still like him quite a bit as well. The fact his stuff was sharper in the Cape might mean the Twins could get him back on track. Stewart is only in the conversation because of how weak this draft is. He doesn't fit the profile of a #4 pick... the risk level is just too high. I'm not a scout, so maybe he will ultimately be the least bad option, but I hope a college player pans out there.
  6. drivlikejehu
    Buxton is off to a great start but he is not going to play in New Britain this year. There's a very good chance neither Sano nor Rosario will either. But, all three could start at NB next year, which is still plenty fast.
  7. drivlikejehu
    This is pretty clearly not what I was saying. Please just explain to me how it makes Ryan a better GM to remain intentionally ignorant of sabermetrics? The fact he is better than a random person on the street means nothing. He is competing against 29 other professionals. I realize you have no actual argument here, but just admit it rather than throwing out nonsense like that.
  8. drivlikejehu
    Millions of people see Pitch f/x every day. Congratulating the Twins on using it a little is like congratulating a landscaper for using a lawnmower. Has any Twins official, other than Goin (who hasn't said much himself) ever referenced a single value metric? Acknowledged the concept of replacement level? DIPS theory? In literally a few hours, a reasonably intelligent person could read up on the basics. The Twins management chooses not to, and there is absolutely no excuse for it.
  9. drivlikejehu
    There is just no way the GM, VPs, manager, pitching coach, etc. are all pretending to be ignorant. The ignorance is real. Some of it matters, some of it doesn't - no one is suggesting Anderson needs to know about WAR. That's just a red herring. If the Twins considered various metrics, and decided some are useless... that would be great. If they tried to develop their own, to focus on their particular priorities, that would be great. Sticking their heads in the sand is just not acceptable.
  10. drivlikejehu
    False. James was talking only about historically great pitchers and off-the-cuff speculated that elite groundball pitchers are more injury prone. He produced nothing to support the assertion and other top analysts don't seem to agree. The key point is that dominant, hard-throwing pitchers tend to work up in the zone. But because they get so many strikeouts, the flyballs aren't much of a problem (high strikeout pitchers also typically induce weaker contact on balls in play). For an ordinary pitcher, there is zero question groundballs are preferable. The only exception would be a perfect storm of an extreme pitcher's park and terrible infield defense/good outfield defense.
  11. drivlikejehu
    There's no "vibe" to read - they pretty much openly mock Goin for just sharing basic knowledge that everyone else in baseball is already comfortable with. I guess it's nice they occasionally listen but the organization is proudly primitive.
  12. drivlikejehu
    He's a flyball pitcher who walks a lot of guys. There's a reason the Phillies gave him up - he profiles better in the bullpen.
  13. drivlikejehu
    WAR is a fun stat but not really useful for coaches or the front office, which needs more in-depth analysis. But it's a pretty common measure that a lot of baseball fans know about. Someone who is a professional in the sport should probably be aware of things like that even if it isn't a usable tool day-to-day.
  14. drivlikejehu
    The Twins are not stat "savvy" by any stretch of the imagination. They have taken some baby steps, but really that's it.
  15. drivlikejehu
    The kool-aid drinkers can't have it both ways. Terry Ryan himself said it was a problem when he took back his old job. Either there has never been a problem, or there has been, and if it's the latter fans have every reason to wonder why similar patterns seem to be repeating.
  16. drivlikejehu
    He was never that great to begin with. He's been a little unlucky - BABIP of .397 - but guys like him will always have stretches where they give up a ton of base hits. The Twins will keep sending him out there for the time being, particularly in light of the fact no better options are available (even if he was ready Gibson could be the #5 starter).
  17. drivlikejehu
    Looks like wishful thinking to me. Pitching depth is still very poor- pitchers get hurt, or struggle once promoted to the Majors. The Twins don't have much in the way of catching or middle infield prospects. Prospects in general are risky bets, even highly-rated ones. There is potential to turn things around in the foreseeable future, but it is dependent on unknown events (e.g., the #4 pick in the draft, future trades, etc.). The Twins' recent performance doesn't really inspire complete confidence in a flawless rebuild.
  18. drivlikejehu
    It's baseball. 15 games just doesn't tell you a lot. I'm more intrigued by the good starts by some of the prospects.
  19. drivlikejehu
    It was a stupid signing then, and remains one now. Correia will show his true talent- or lack thereof- soon enough.
  20. drivlikejehu
    How generous to "excuse" the Twins and their heavily subsidized stadium for striking out the fewest opponents of any Major League team.
  21. drivlikejehu
    There are different ways to succeed (or not) as a pitcher. The clearly correct strategy is to target the best available pitchers regardless of their particular approach. If someone is a 5.50 ERA pitcher, who cares if the reason is excessive contact or poor control? The outcome is the same. The problem with the Twins is that they are ignorant of DIPS theory and thus prone to overpaying for low-strikeout pitchers. But, catching up with everyone else in baseball philosophically doesn't magically add talent to the staff. The problems in drafting, player development, etc. probably don't have too much to do with the "pitch to contact" mantra.
  22. drivlikejehu
    Last season, 31 pitchers threw 200+ innings. Of those, 5 had a strikeout rate under 6 per 9 IP. It takes more pitches to get through an inning when the opposition keeps getting hits. Everyone in baseball knows you want pitchers who actually have good stuff. Why the Twins are so devoid of such pitchers is another issue.
  23. drivlikejehu
    If a HS outfielder as good as Buxton is there at #4, they have to take him. But it doesn't sound like there is anyone like that- Meadows and Frazier seem to have significantly less upside. This class looks terrible, worse than 2012 (at the top anyway). If no one is worth slot at #4, the Twins should do a below-slot deal and use the money later on.
  24. drivlikejehu
    Clearly, extremely small sample size. But, the main drawbacks people talked about were Buxton being raw due to weak competition, and questions about how well he would translate his raw power to game situations. So the early returns are particularly intriguing. Having said that, I think there is no chance at all the Twins promote him. The Twins will let Buxton destroy the Midwest League completely if that's how it plays out.
  25. drivlikejehu
    If the lines are too far from reality "smart money" will almost always outweigh biased fans (and move the line in the 'right' direction). The Dodgers are a bit high due to hype, but that sort of thing doesn't come into play much with the Twins. I'd take the over because the AL Central is so weak overall, but not with a lot of confidence. Various other O/Us stand out as better picks... Cubs, over; Red Sox, over; Dodgers, under. I also like Mets, over and Pirates & Royals, under.
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