Dantes929

I am hoping that by the middle of the summer we are as high on Thorpe as we currently are on Gonsalves or even more so. Seemed like the old reports on Throrpe showed he had a bit better arsenal.

I read the descriptions and can't help but think he should be with the Twins right now or at least in high A ball for just a few starts and promoted if he dominates there. I get that he only threw about 100 innings last year but that is just officially. I assume he threw innings the first two months of the year also. Best stuff in organization and great command. I am with others that say if he has durability issues then the smartest thing to do is use what innings he has now rather than waste them in the minors. I sometimes wonder if a Blyleven were drafted today he would be put on a fast track to reach the majors at age 22 rather than the age 19 when he actually did reach the majors back in the day.

Scott Diamond's career season was middle of rotation on most playoff teams and if you told me that is what Gonsalves would give us every season I would run to the bank with it.

I don't see it that way at all and the rankings reflect how much "love" each get. Gonsalves appears to be more polished so Gibson has more room for improvement. I wonder where Thorpe would have been ranked if not for his surgery. What is his prognosis?

As pointed out above, .345 in AA does not necessarily translate to .345 in the majors. Is Vielma as good as Ozzie Smith defensively? I am with you about questioning switch hitting. Usually, they have a better split from one side and the best case scenario is that the splits would be the same as if they just stayed with their stronger side anyway. There really aren't that many Eddie Murrays and Mickey Mantles walking around. I questioned Hicks pursuing switch hitting almost from the get go.

League average is underrated. Last year, first half we had one player above average (Nunez, our utility infielder) and everyone else played to below league average. 87 team had two elite players (Puckett Viola) a couple above average, a couple average and several below league average. Kind of self evident that if you have a roster full of league average guys and just two guys that are either elite or even just above average your team will be above average. I look forward to a long term league average shortstop. If he is better than that it would be awesome.

Silva?

Your 2016 stats don't jive with the article and after a quick look don't jive with baseball reference either which shows 143 innings pitched and a 2.88 ERA in 2016. I am still a believer in the concept of pitching to contact if done well. The home runs given up by Stewart in 1600 batters is that same number given up by Berrios in the majors in 58 innings. Weak contact by design by putting quality pitches in or very near the edge zone is going to have different outcomes than a lot of swing and misses combined with a lot of mistakes down the middle.

Would pitching great for Puerto Rico sway your opinion at all? I assume he has the blessing of the Twins. Personally, I don't think ST is for fighting for a spot. If he comes in with great mechanics and command, he is in. If not, out.

I used to argue against the value so many put on power hitting but now that it seems the pendulum has swung the other way. What's not to like about Dozier hitting 42 homers or anyone hitting 30? Is this the guy that's going to replace Mauer in 2 years? What is his defense like?

2015 pennant run was fueled by Santana, Duffey, Sano and Mauer. Basically it was Mauer got on and Sano drove him home. He has never been a big RBI guy mostly because he takes too many walks which doesn't provide the drama and excitement crave but is very valuable because it has allowed Morneau, Thome and Cuddyer to provide that drama. Runs produced is an underrated stat. One week a couple years ago I kept track of what Mauer did to contribute to runs and what he got credit for. I definitely picked the right week because his walks and hits moved guys over that then scored on hits, sac flies and fielders choices. In a week he contributed to 8 runs and what showed up on his stat sheet was 0 RBI and 1 run scored. If a guy walks and Mauer gets a hit that gets him to 3rd with one out and the next guy hits a sac fly there is an RBI and a run scored and Mauer gets credit for neither but it has happened with him as much or more than any guy in the majors over the years.

I had no complaints in 2015 except for not being on the field the first half. His last 7 starts were in the middle of a pennant chase and they were all quality and not just quality minimum. 7 innings and 2 runs was his worst. Very ace like.

Of course there are paths to above average. The simplest one is for enough of the current players to play better. The Twins had a lot of young guys that played really poorly and two that played like we expected them to or better. So of course the tone is "what if everyone else continues to play poorly and then the two that actually played well play poorly also." I understand that the last 5 years have conditioned many to think that way but can't we at least consider the possibility that Berrios will be better than Nolasco and that May can be better than Milone and that Gibson can pitch more like 2015 than he did in 2016 and that 2015 is more a reflection of Sano than 2016 and that Buxton is better than a .210 hitter. and on and on. Losing begets losing until it doesn't. The last decade when we won 6 titles plus a game 163 it was a constant theme that the Twins didn't improve enough and that every other team was getting better and that the Twins would eventually have some bad breaks and lose 95 games. I said if they kept saying that year after year of course eventually they would be right. Same holds true the other way. If I say 12 of the 25 on the roster will have good years and I say it every year eventually it will come true. I still believe this team has more talent than the 2015 team when 8 guys actually played well and they had a winning record. Berrios, Gonsalves, are not interchangeable. Good Hughes is nothing like bad Hughes. Gibson is not the same every game much less every season.

People forget just how obscenely bad the Twins were the first 70 games in relation to their perceived and historic talent. Nunez wasn't just the only Twin having a good season. He was the only Twin not having a horrible season. Santana had a 5.10 ERA by mid June and he was our ace and still our best pitcher. Nolasco was considered the biggest bright spot on the pitching staff starting or relieving and he was 4-8 with a 5.13 ERA when we traded him away. It was reasonable to expect good performance from Jepsen, Perkins and May. I believe they blew their first 5 save opportunities before Jepsen and Perkins were done and May got hurt. Dozier was looking lost. Sano was hurt or ineffective. Plouffe had a good week and then got hurt. Even good teams need half their roster playing well to have winning records. The Twins had ONE player in Nunez doing that before Grossman had his good month. Of course the Twins could lose 100 games again if everything goes horribly wrong. I don't enter seasons wondering what would happen if everyone on the roster has a really bad year. I still consider this team to have more talent than the 2010-2014 teams and I expect better performance out of them.

Anything to the rumor that our new likely trading partner for Dozier is the Tampa Rays and that they are offering DeLeon and some prospects?

Just looked at their major league stats. Forsythe career .255 avg .721 OPS. Polanco .284 avg. .769 OPS and his splits are way better from the right side which is what the Dodgers are looking for. I looked closer and besides the obvious small sample size for Polanco, Forsythe has done better the last two years as you pointed out.

Looking at the stats it looks like maybe Forsythe is Polanco lite. I was skeptical of Dozier's first half of 2015 because it seemed like all he did was feast on the same pitch that they just kept giving him. Hence the slump of 2nd half 2015. Consensus was that if he could not adjust he would wallow in mediocrity. First half of 2016 seemed to confirm this even though it looked like he was trying to step toward the pitcher instead of pulling everything. Then, he took off and he was hitting everything and to all fields. He still pulls the ball but it doesn't look like he is trying to do that which makes all the difference. His quick hands and good eye serve him well and I am much more optimistic he can have a great year than I was after 2015 or even all star break 2015. Of course, hindsight might say an even trade is the right choice. You play the odds.

Most people are on board that a 42 home run 2nd baseman is worth more than a good prospect with a good minor league history but no major league history. Especially when the Dodgers are pitching rich and 2nd baseman weak. I don't think competition really enters into the equation much. They need. We have. So if Dozier is too much to give up for DeLeon straight up what would have to be added to Polanco for Deleon? I don't know Polanco's splits in the minors but his major league season was .857 OPS against lefties. Good prospect with good performance thus far in the majors against higher ranked prospect with no real history in the majors. I like the idea of Santana, Berrios, May, and DeLeon in the rotation. I would like it better with Dozier still on the team.

Our run differential said we should have been a 96 loss team and not having Perkins and Jepsen last year probably would have gotten us there. That brings your 91 losses to 84. Buxton shining for a whole season and Berrios with a winning differential equal to his 2016 losing differential of 3-7 and now you are looking at 85-77. Just a little sunshine for the day but I really think you did the heavy lifting. My three variables for win difference is more likely than yours.

Baseball has already become that way with shifts, relief one batter specialists, more relievers at expense of position players. Which market efficiencies are you talking about? The multiple relievers in an inning might increase odds of winning while also fueling the slower pace of a game which is still a complaint of some fans which put butts in stadiums. Roster size or expanding by one are already restrictions and rather arbitrary. Reducing the roster size might inspire market efficiencies to go back to 4 man rotations and other things. Expanding might lead to 6 man rotations and other thinigs. Its all rather arbitrary and I was really just pointing out possibilities rather than advocating anything. I am not a fan of 4 pitcher innings and I like platooning of players where it makes sense but neither are big on my list of peeves.

They could also leave roster size the same and put a limit on the amount of pitchers a team can have on the roster.

Or expand the rosters to 30 players but I am afraid they would just go with 18 man pitching staffs.

I argued for a couple years that the ideal outfielder would have been Hicks and Arcia as a platoon. Hicks was great against lefties and Arcia was great against righties and so would start most games but Hicks could play most late innings of games. Mauer not facing lefties makes a lot of sense now also. So does the catching spot. None of these are so special anymore that you want them to get at bats against same siders. regardless of results.

Must have worded my comment poorly. In 2011 Baker pitched well albeit for only 21 starts. He was the only one. In 2012 Diamond pitched well. He was the only one. In 2013 Deduno pitched well. He was the only one. In 2014 Hughes pitched well. He was the only one. . In 2016, Santana pitched well. He was the only one. In 2015 Gibson, Duffey, Milone and Santana all pitched pretty well for a pretty long stretch. Pelfrey and Hughes were good for back of rotation and not coincidentally that was our winning year.

To me the guys with upside are Santana, Berrios, and May. If those guys have good years it will make a world of difference. At this point I consider Gibson, Santiago and Hughes to be back of the rotation starters. Potentially good back of the rotation which also can make a world of difference. Consider that only once in the last 6 years have we had more than one starting pitcher doing well for any length of time and that was 2015. Has to happen again at some point. Doesn't it?