Dantes929

Not arguing so much with your conclusion as your premise. Playoff performance. Alex Cobb 1-0 with 1.56 ERA Lance Lynn 5-4 and 7-4 in games he has started with a 4.5 ERA Yu Darvish 2-4 with a 5.81 ERA I agree that Darvish matches up better but that is just on paper. If either Cobb or Lynn had been on the Dodgers team this year instead of Darvish maybe LA wins the WS. How do Mejia and Gibson project to the same value of Lynn and Cobb when their history of success is so different?

Its not a new thing but the metrics are fairly new. I don't know how much faith to put into the metrics and if I put a lot of faith in them I am not so sure that ranking 32nd is all that impressive. Part of the value is if the pitchers have faith in it. Its not a new concept but metrics or not I think pitch framing is both a talent and a skill. For example I think I would stink at it no matter how much I worked at it but if I worked at it I would stink less. If Castor is naturally better at it than Susuki and also works at it more then he will be better at it. If that results in a sum total of two pitches a game that was either stolen or not given away it is probably worth it. Just kind of tough proving it.

Cobb/Lynn and its not even close. Just kidding. Really tough to analyze because you shouldn't just be looking at this year and you should still be looking at making the playoffs because doing well in the playoffs is still a crapshoot. Santana didn't do well in the playoffs this year but that doesn't mean he couldn't have. He pitched like an ace pretty much all year. If you look at the Twins playoff history and game 163's I don't think it has been the starting pitching that has been the problem. Make the playoffs first. I would rank them Darvish, Cobb and Lynn but ERA hasn't separated them though ERA+ does. I would still rather improve two spots than one but this is a little pointless. We are very likely to end up with none of them so I would be quite happy with any of them and am comfortable relying on Meija, May, Gonsalves, Romero to fill out the 5th spot and as backup for any that falter.

Nathan was fantastic against 28 other teams not named the Yankees. I might undervalue closers a little bit but recognize the great job Kintzler did for us for two years. In 2016 Perkins and Jepsen combined to blow a lot of saves early in the season which I thought was particularly demoralizing for a young team. Kintzler did a great job to start 2017 and would have been top 3 in my book for first half MVP. When we faced Rodney I always felt pretty good about our chances and am not thrilled with him being handed the closer job. I do like what the Twins did by signing Reed and maybe if we had signed him earlier we would have passed on Rodney. I haven't seen anyone complain about signing Reed. In fact, if all they did was sign Reed, keep Burdi, and sign either Darvish or Cobb I would have given them an A report card.

Runs in in two of three games is hardly confirmation. He was a huge reason we got to the playoffs though I certainly am not saying he is perfect. If you are taking larger, albeit still small sample sizes, Rodney has a 4.97 playoff ERA which does not include giving up 2 runs in 3 innings in game 163. Mostly, I am just saying I am not a huge fan of Rodney though of course, I hope I am wrong and that he does great for us.

Can Reed be the bullpen ace? Well, I certainly don't think Rodney will be. Burdi might have gotten there in a while. Reed was a great pickup. I think we will miss Kintzler a bit.

Shane Mack. Only 5 years or rather 4.5 since his monster 94 season was cut exactly in half by the players strike. However, he averaged 4 WAR per season and had an OPS that was exceeded by only a couple on the list above. Had the highest OPS on the 91 team. 7 more WAR than Cuddyer in half the seasons. Two more than Gagne in half the seasons.

Um.... Yeah. Make everyone play a certain way and it will make the really slow handful quicker and those that already are on a good pace are not affected. There are probably only a few golfers that are really slow but everyone is on the same clock. Why should the slow ones take up everyone's time? Yes, make everyone play a certain way. There is still room for a Buehrle to pitch at a faster pace. This just keeps players from pitching at a really slow pace. I don't know why anyone would have a problem with this. Maybe throw it out or add 5 seconds for the playoffs.

Yikes! Maybe ease them into it. 25 second clock for pitches this year and then knock it down to 20 next year. I liken it to golf. If a guy takes an extra 5 seconds between shots every once in a while its no big deal but if he does it every single shot it starts to wear on you and its not like the extra 5 seconds every shot even makes a difference in the final score. I am guessing if Altuve was ready for a pitch every 10 seconds without adjusting his gloves he would do just fine. There should be a nice sweet spot between being rushed and being too slow. I don't worry about how long a game takes but I really appreciate a good rhythm to the game.

Feels like they are always adding 5 or 10 seconds so to go backwards would be nice just to stop the bleeding so to speak. Does anyone know why the union did shoot this down? Do they value adjusting their batting gloves that much" I think it was Tom F that made the good point of if they are both a little rushed then it is still fair. I am sure most offenses in NFL would like a little more time to talk or think about plays but they manage. It seems like these clocks would be more than fair and as was pointed out if a guy is on first base a pitcher can always buy time by throwing over there. If there is not a guy on base then what is the holdup? I would be ok with the third visit of player, coach or manager initiating a pitching change and I love the idea of a reliever making his way to the field earlier. Seeing a manager point to the pen holding up an arm holds no value to me. Three warm up pitches should be enough also. Should be enough time for a 30 second commercial. Thyros said "I'd rather see them get rid of: character races, T-shirt canons, children's games, dedications to veterans, anthem choir and bands, and everything else non-baseball related between innings or before the first pitch, and then try to change the game." Agree with everything here except instead of getting rid of the canons triple the number and shoot them off as many times as possible for 30 seconds every half inning. T-shirts are not dangerous, catching them is fun and getting freebies are always nice. Just do it and don't make a production of it.

Kintzler did a a fantastic job the first chunk of the season and Belisle did a fantastic job the second half. If Rodney can come close to the combined performance of those two in late innings I would be thrilled but also a bit surprised. If there is an upgrade I consider it to be this move (Reed) along with the emergence of Hildenberger. Vastly upgraded remains to be seen. I thought the Twins did a great job of closing out winnable games last year while getting destroyed in games where the chances of winning were low anyway. I appreciate that we now have more depth and hope it translates to more wins. We exceeded the pythagorean win projection last year. I am just hoping the improved depth gets us the same wins without needing to beat it in 2018.

Running speed is a skill as well as a talent. More focused stretching and speed training could probably get him back to 2015 levels. Building muscle or running for distance can affect sprint speed. If speed is his priority he can probably improve. I'd like to see it but it is not as essential to his game as it is for Buxton. If Buxton slows down I get concerned.

The Rox had Lou Brock and Gaylord Perry playing for them also. I think the catch Sunday maybe trumps Puckett because Puckett's homer didn't really surprise me. We had better than a 50/50 chance of winning at the time he hit it. Probably at least 70/30. It was a bigger moment but not a better finish in my book.

Nice signing, I think. Can we give Rodney back now or maybe trade him for Burdi?

I posed this question on another the Gordon page and its not rhetorical. Even at his very ceiling what does Gordon provide that Polanco does not? The projected 2021 lineup posted earlier has Gordon at 2nd base. Why so much love for Gordon and so little for Polanco?

Glass is half full and half empty. Its up to Gordon to move the needle. If he ends up being league average that is ok with me. League average is underrated. For example if we had league average at 7 spots in the lineup but Buxton and Dozier were exceptional we would have well above average lineup. I am still not sure what Gordon offers that Polanco does not.

Well, I'' make the case of sorts. As H20 pointed out getting Darvish might have cost the Dodgers the WC. Of course it is possible the Dodgers wouldn't have even gotten there without Darvish so who knows. I think the twins have the talent to make another WC appearance and I am a big believer in getting that chance. I like Berrios and Santana and have faith there are several others that can do well filling out the rotation. Maybe we sign Darvish to a big 6 year deal and he breaks his arm the 2nd game out but Romero fills in and becomes Mark Fidrych 2.0 or Gonsalves becomes Frank Viola 2.0. We might be 0 players away, we might be 6 players away. If we get Darvish or Cobb I will hope they are the answer. If we don't get them I will hope that is the best thing that could have happened because other guys stepped up.

Decent analysis on Cobb here. https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/12/12/16764788/alex-cobb-cubs-free-agent-starting-pitching-mlb-sign-contract-rumors-hot-stove I saw another article about how he gave up on his best pitch which was the splitter changeup because he didn't have the same feel for it but it might come back the farther removed from surgery. No sure thing but a shorter contract for less money with possibly upside if he gets that feel back. His numbers were also in the toughest division, IMO. He was my target from the get go and if they had gone after him the same way they went after Castro last year they might have gotten him for less money than what is now considered the market. I would prefer 4 years to Cobb for less money per year vs 6 years to Darvish but time will tell.

Well, first of all if we see Darvish pitch for the Twins in the WS it must mean the Twins made it to the WS, no? Kershaw has been Klyle Gibson like in the past postseasons. If we got him would you not look forward to watching him in the WS? Broncos lost 3 Super Bowls with Elway. Would you have said "hey, not looking forward to seeing him in another Super Bowl"? I'm not saying I want the Twins to sign Darvish but if they do I am not worried about how he might do in the WS.

Not disagreeing with your 2nd paragraph but why in the world would you not look forward to Darvish pitching in the World Series?

Man, that is crazy. 3.5 isn't even what most on here consider ace production. Confident is still not a guarantee. There is still risk and I am not confident. Would be nice to see a guy confident enough to say pay me minimum and add 10 mil for every 1 WAR. No one will do it but if Dozier had on his last contract he would have made out well.

Santana has two years in a row of better run prevention than Darvish and is not considered an ace by many. Berrios was almost identical to Darvish last year and my favorite target from the get go, Cobb, was better last year. I think Darvish is the most likely to have the best season of the 4 but I wouldn't take the odds of him against the field and that is just one season. I don't get too hung up on the term ace. If I felt good that he could give us 6 years of 3.5 ERA I would say fine. I really don't feel the overpay for the over years is worth the risk but I won't criticize the Twins if they go for it. BTW, you might be in the minority now, (though not the lone voice), but watch if Darvish is signed and blows out his arm in the 2nd game. Posts will be filled with people saying they were against it from the start.

Some 1st base stats. In 118 games Mauer had 2 errors. In 30 games Vargas had 2 errors and in 8 games Sano had 2 errors. Just my eyeball talking but aside from errors committed Mauer saved his fellow fielders from many errors and Vargas and Sano saved none. If Mauer's fielding Wins Above Replacement were based on those two replacing him his WAR would have been far beyond Buxtons and quite possibly beyond anyone in the history of WAR. That's not so say Sano cannot improve but his starting point is pretty low. As far as Sano goes, when he was the #2 prospect in baseball I suggested trading him for one of the shortstops that were ranked behind him. I guess I always thought his future would be DH and still think that and am ok with it. Hitting is what he does best. I am ok with trading him but trading him now would be the definition of trading low. If, as Tobio says, we can get 90 cents on the dollar for him that would be ok but to go lower than that I would definitely accept the risk of more accusations causing his value to plummet and just keep him. Of course if nothing more surfaces and he has a monster 1st half that would be the time to trade him but the Catch 22 of trading its that if he has a monster 1st half the Twins will want to keep him.

I get the reasons for Mauer being off the list. Same reasons for Escobar since he becomes a free agent in 2019? Seems he would have as much value as Rogers and Duffey and even Castro.

I got the feeling he threw more curve balls in his successful stretch. He had a great start earlier in the year where he said he threw more curve balls than ever before and then I didn't see it much again until the second half. Either that or he was throwing his slider much slower and with more break. How is it decided whether a pitch is a slider or a curve ball? Seems like there is a fair amount of overlap sometimes.