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Dantes929

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Everything posted by Dantes929

  1. Dantes929
    I will root for whatever guy win the 5th spot and be comfortable we have other guys to step up not only for that guy but for any of the others that falter. If Milone is the 5th starter don't just assume he will perform the 5th best. Are we really talking about Plouffe not hitting. I remember a couple years of Morneau batting about .110 in spring training only to have monster seasons. If Plouffe bats .150 but still retains his confidence then I will just assume when the regular season starts he is due for a hot streak..
  2. Dantes929
    I am certain I am not one of those that mocked you back then but predicting anything like that over two years into the future is mock worthy. How do I go about it?
  3. Dantes929
    I've always liked the underdog and am more a journey than destination guy. Guarantee anything in sports and I probably won't bother watching. Give me 6 seasons of 1 in 10 chance over 1 season of overwhelming favorites anytime. Like I said, others may have a different take. I loved 87 and 91 but I think I hated 1971- 1982 and 1995-2000 more.
  4. Dantes929
    Its pretty much a lock that without Mauer the Twins do not win the division in 2006 and 2009 or get to game 163 in 08. I also believe that the Twins had a chance in the playoffs even though the record ended up being dismal. KC taught us that the difference between going 0-1 in the playoffs and 11-4 might be as little as the other team making a wild pitch in the wrong spot. Twins with a save or two from Nathan might have a much different playoff history in the 2000's. I know my take might be different than others but I thoroughly enjoyed those 9 years where the Twins won 6 division titles and another game 163. They may have had small chance of winning but it was at least as good as the 87 team. If guaranteed a WS in 02 to go along with a guarantee the next 8 seasons would be .500 records I would pass.
  5. Dantes929
    OK, there may be some correlation with strikeout rates and postseason success but I would like to point out that Viola led the 87 team with a strikeout rate roughly equivalent to Kevin Slowey. The best way to succeed in the playoffs is to make the playoffs. Citing 1-12 with Mauer is hindsight. Just because they went 1-12 doesn't mean the odds were they go 1-12. I am sure if you spent enough time on it you could come up with an argument for drafting someone else instead of Morneau or Hunter or just about anyone else. . Chicago could probably make a case for how getting Mauer instead of Prior would have led to a handful of championships for them. Mauer was a huge part of three of the most exciting division finishes in baseball history (1st place in the division, not 3rd place) and can hardly be blamed for not winning the division any of the last 4 seasons so I am not going to spend too much time on alternative universes. . Lastly, I have read over and over again (ok, mostly on the strib pages) about how terrible Gardy was as a manager and how he was responsible for the poor playoff showings. Kind of hypocritical for anyone who has ever agreed with the idea that he was responsible for those results to agree with this analysis. Either he wasn't responsible for those losses or its reasonable to expect that he would have botched it up with Prior as well.
  6. Dantes929
    All catchers love fastballs. Easier to catch and gives the a better chance of throwing out runners. In general I think most fans are too in love with high velocity fastballs. I keep pointing out that the Giants staff that has won two WS are middle of the road in velocity (90.8mph, I sometimes think people think the average is 95 or something) and throw it less than anyone. I am not anti fastball and high velocity. It is important to show it often and to command it. I am just more of a fan of "stuff" and a change up falls in that category. I have no idea if Anderson was any good or not or had simply gotten stale but IMIO the staffs he had the last several years had neither velocity, command or stuff.
  7. Dantes929
    "a pitch Hughes threw just 32 times last season — or 1.1 percent of his more than 3,000 offerings. Back in 2012, when Hughes went 16-13 for the New York Yankees, he threw changeups a career-high 9.9 percent of the time, according to PITCHf/x data. That figure dropped to 5.8 percent in a nightmare 2013, and Hughes subsequently put his change on the same shelf as his slider (22 times in 2014)". None of those figures lend itself to any kind of conclusion. He threw it a lot in a petty good season. He threw it half as much in a horrible season and he threw it barely at all in arguably his best season (his stats were pretty good in 2009). Has his curveball taken the place of his change up? If you throw it 1.1% of the time what is the point of throwing it at all? What were the results of those 32 changeups? 32 strikeouts? I would think the point of a change up is.to not throw it so much that they look for it but enough that it keeps them from getting too comfortable.
  8. Dantes929
    Not sure if posting videos is allowed but this is a great one.
  9. Dantes929
    Someone correct me with if I am wrong. My memory last year was that the pen did its job quite well or at least adequately until the last month to 6 weeks. In fact the Twins Pythagorean formula said they should have won 4 more games and they were matching that projection until the pen blew about 6 games late in a two week period. At the time I was disgusted but wrote it off to overwork. Few pens can handle their starters giving as few innings and quality starts as the Twins did last year and Gardy liked to switch pitchers a lot for the match ups. More appearances can wear an arm down more than the actual innings might indicate... The best fix for the pen might just be starters that pitch better and longer. My biggest concern about the pen is Perkins. He looked pretty shaky before being shut down.
  10. Dantes929
    Thank you for not putting Vargas on that list. I don't think you can put Collabello's April as a regression candidate without putting his May and July as a counterbalance. Santana is an obvious regression candidate and probably Esccobar as well. Dozier's power numbers will drop probably drop. I don't know why Plouffe's numbers should drop. They are not that different than career average and mark a simple maturation that you would expect in a player. I think Mauer and Arcia are gong to come up big but I am not counting on the offense to be better and do not expect them to be worse. Of course the rotation with many of the same guys can fail again but it doesn't take a Matt Harvey explosion to make a world of difference. Seasons can turn just as much on guys like Nolasco simply putting a 4.3 ERA instead of a 5.3. Gibson with three more quality starts, Santana being half a run better than Correia and May being better than Pino/May of 2014. The staff last year was such that I thought signing Pelfrey was not a bad move. This year there is enough talent and depth that I would consider it a horrible move for anything more than a minor league contract. .
  11. Dantes929
    Most teams that turn things around are littered with players that performed poorly the year before. I am betting Milone, May, and Nolasco will all pitch better for us in 2015 than 2014. I am ok with Nolasco being in the rotation and am hoping May is.
  12. Dantes929
    Ignore development just for a second. Look at their splits last year and tell me that for the current team a platoon isn't their best option by far. Hicks splits make him an ideal candidate for leadoff hitter against lefties. Schaefer is adequate against right handers. If not Hicks/Schaefer then who? Now lets talk development. Against AAA pitchers what numbers would Hicks have to hit and for how long from the left side before you would be convinced he can hit major league pitchers? I would actually like your opinion. Two months above .300? Three months above .290? If he never does you have lost the value he could have given this year when we need it. What do you do if Buxton and or Rosario out play him in that period? I am by no means positive he will never hit as a lefty. I am just skeptical and see value in him as a platoon player even if it is only against lefties and as late inning defense. Send him down now and I predict his future will be as a platoon/4th outfielder anyway. I have been wrong before. Its just that he has shown so little from the left side.
  13. Dantes929
    Nolasco was almost completely in the NL which I believe deflates his numbers. I want May to be the 5th pitcher. I am ok with Santana. I am even ok with Nolasco but I have just always felt Milone was dismissed because he doesn't throw as hard. If after this latest surgery he can get just a couple mph back to where he was at his best I don't think he should be written off.
  14. Dantes929
    I have advocated a Schaeffer/Hicks centerfield platoon but maybe if Rosario shows a lot we go with a Rosario/Hicks platoon and late inning lead holding outfield defense of Schaeffer, Rosario and Hicks which might actually be slightly above average rather than dramatically below average.. So essentially 5 outfielders. When Buxton gets here and Hunter is gone move Rosario to left and make Hicks the 4th outfielder with starts mostly against lefties. .
  15. Dantes929
    Not a big fan of Nunez or Beresford but Punto is gone so who should take their place? With Arcia and Hunter in the outfield the 4th outfielder will be used defensively late plenty often. You can count on a pinch runner for Vargas regularly and you always want to keep at least one guy on the bench for injuries. You want a bench guy with some pop and Escobar probably fits that bill but the only spot at the moment he would pinch hit for is a centerfielder. Polanco would be good but you don't want him in a reserve role at this point. I think Escobar will get a fair amount of infield rotation but otherwise I don't think Nunez or Beresford get much duty aside from late inning defense or pinch running so kind of a non issue. Am I missing someone that would be better? I don't care for those two and would maybe prefer another relief pitcher but if you are going to keep that many on the bench what are the alternatives?
  16. Dantes929
    What created the logjam was the Santana signing. Nolasco's poor year didn't help. I want May because I think he can be much better than a 5th starter but am not sold on Nolasco and don't write off Milone just based on 5 starts at the end of last year.
  17. Dantes929
    Hard time believing more foul territory helps Milone more than anyone else. You point out how much higher his road ERA is but fail to consider it is better than Gibson, Nolasco (NL) and Santana's career road ERA's. You are criticizing his worst split even though his road numbers are still about a run better than the rotation's ERA has been the last two years overall. To me the big concern is his fastball. Not because I think a guy needs to throw 95 to succeed but because I read that Milone's has dropped a couple years in a row now. 89 with a great change up and control is different than 85 with the same change up.
  18. Dantes929
    "Yes, our beloved Minnesota Twins have essentially become an afterthought before the season has even begun. While it’s disappointing to see the Twins written off before spring training really gets under way, this national malaise directed towards the Twins may actually be a good thing." Really nothing new here. Even in the prior decade when the Twins were winning 6 division titles along with a game 163 they were rarely picked to be in the top 2 and often placed at the bottom of the predictions. That's why I always pay attention but put little credence on the rankings. That's not to say they are wrong. I think the Twins are long shots to contend. That is not the same thing as having zero shot to contend. The possibility I see in them is why I keep watching. I have always liked the underdog.
  19. Dantes929
    I have the Twins at closer to 10-1 odds against which means I should probably put 50 on them for a 900 payout. Of course I usually put a buck down on the lottery once it gets over 250 mil because at that point the payout is better than the odds so it is a reasonable bet but I still have to actually win to profit by it...
  20. Dantes929
    One year the Twins had 115 fewer homers than the Jays but outscored them by 26. In 2014 the Twins scored 101 runs more than 2013 with 23 fewer homers. If you look back runs scored in the AL OBP has a closer relationship to the leader in runs scored than does home runs. In fact the team with the highest OBP had the most runs more often than not and the few times the league leader in home runs had the most runs they also had the best OBP (Yankees twice). Homers are great but it is not how most runs are scored.. I am excited about guys like Vargas and Arcia because I think they can eventually become like Thome and Morneau which is power guys that also get on base a lot. I would be thrilled for Plouffe to get 14 homers and 40 doubles again.
  21. Dantes929
    Hicks and Schaeffer as a platoon is the best thing for the Twins right now. Hicks has shown he can hit lefties and has shown little against lefties. If you send him down what is the time frame in which you want him to prove himself? I am guessing about the same time frame you want Rosario and Buxton to do so. We don't need HIcks to be our centerfielder for the long term. Or probably anything more than a 4th outfielder. I also think saying he was mishandled is just hindsight. He played well enough in AA and spring training to be promoted. Others have succeeded in similar situations. He hasn't yet. I suspect he won't against righties.
  22. Dantes929
    I don't want to write him off. I understand that it would be hard for him to bat right handed only at this point but really wish it had never gotten to this point. I never liked the idea of him switch hitting because there really wasn't much upside. He was better from the right side and the best I would have hoped for would be that he would have the same splits against right handed pitching batting left handed as he would if he had hit only right handed from the day he was drafted. If that was the ceiling then what is the point to doing it? If he explodes I will be thrilled. My gut feeling tells me he would make a very good right handed side of a platoon. There is value in that I don't think should be dismissed. His splits from the right side are worthy of being a lead off hitter. His splits from the left side are worthy of being an NL pitcher. Like I said I hope I am wrong about his ability to switch hit effectively in the majors.
  23. Dantes929
    We have had a lot of good centerfielders in the past in Hunter, Gomez, Span, and Revere. Even Hicks and Santana weren't too bad because of their speed and arm. Left field has been a problem for a long time. I think Lew Ford was pretty good out there and maybe Shannon Stewart was decent. Right field wasn't really a problem with Cuddyer but not like a big asset out there either. His arm was very good and he played the walls well but speed was just ok. As far as I am concerned the last two good right fielders were Span and J. Jones. Balls the were hit to the right field corner with Span I assumed they would be caught or cut off. With Arcia I assume they will be triples so there is something to the reason for moving him. If he misplays in left they are more likely to be doubles. . I thought it interesting that balls hit to the corners are about equal because I always assumed more were hit to left. However, with more room in left at Target I would still want the fastest guy out there. Isn't that Tori over Arcia? Left is where I assumed Rosario would end up. I always thought D Young should have been in right but he would probably have been a mess anywhere.
  24. Dantes929
    There was a time when Mauer would get intentionally walked in order to face Morneau which makes me think it would not have been ridiculous to switch them. I am not sure if the wRC stat says Mauer should be batting 4th because it doesn't say he drives in the most runners that are on base. Much of the value is that he gets on base himself.. Table setting seems to have a slight advantage over table clearing in his wRC IMO..
  25. Dantes929
    Thank you for that. It didn't feel right and I was trying to come up with a way to refute it. I always felt guys like Casilla and Gomez (circa Twins) should bunt more because it just seemed like they were successful enough to warrant it. I also always felt Puckett and Carew added quite a few points to their average (as well as OBP and possibly OPS) by doing so. I hope Buxton uses it in his arsenal as well.
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