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Dantes929

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Everything posted by Dantes929

  1. Dantes929
    I think 2016 would have better chance also but then the odds will reflect that. I would put a fifty on the Twins reaching 69 wins this year though.
  2. Dantes929
    I would be surprised if the odds would be linear but the ALCS odds support this idea. In the 6 playoff appearances the Twins made last decade I never felt like the Twins had an equal chance except in 2006 simply because the Yankees were better but I dismissed the idea that many had that they had no chance. Unfortunately, odds are odds and their failure supported those that said they had zero chance. I always figured they were more like 10 or 12-1 odds against rather than the 8-1. Its also why I was very disappointed to lose game 163 in 2008. We would have faced the Rays in the 1st round and had done ok against them. KC showed that anyone can get hot..
  3. Dantes929
    I did a quick google check and found they are exactly 100-1 against winning the WS. I thought Vegas odds only went up to 100 nowadays but there were 3 teams behind them and the Phillies were 300-1 against. My memory was that the 87 Twins were something like 185-1 against and a friend of mine bet $20 on them. Odds against the 91 Twins were also over 100-1 which makes this current Twins team more likely to win the WS than either of those teams according to the odds. You are right though. I typed playoffs when I meant World Series. .
  4. Dantes929
    It was a gamble that paid off. I have no problem with liking that trade when it happened or even liking it in hindsight though to me that seems myopic(?). I am more a journey than a destination guy so I try not to evaluate it based on hindsight. I compare it to Gardy's Manager of the Year award. He got the award because they won the title despite a fair amount of injuries. That is based on destination. The journey was that, Gardy was forced to make some replacements because of injuries that he should have made anyway and probably would not have made but for the injuries. The replacements did well and the Twins won the Division. So to me the year he won the MOY was his worst year of managing. Rays may have made the playoffs because of Myers in 2013. Royals may have made the playoffs in 2014 because of Shields. There were other players involved in the trade so who knows who will be the long term winner. I just like the Twins prospects and don't care to see that Royals trade as justification for the Twins to do the same thing. Maybe if the Twins have a dry spell of 28 years like the Royals did I will feel different.
  5. Dantes929
    It was a great year and I was pulling for them and happy for them but absolutely I would acknowledge that the Twins were lucky if it were them. Just like I believe the Twins may have been one break like that from winning a couple playoff games that might have spurred on a similar run. Please don't say you make your own breaks. Yes, Hrbek had to pull Gant off 1st base but the ump still had to call him out. Luck is part of the game. I am just saying for every Shields for prospects that help a team to WS there is a Viola for prospects where the prospects develop to go to the WS. Saying it was a great move to get Shields is obvious because they did get to the WS but it is also hindsight. You are about wins and results. I'm about good moves at the time. If they don't work then yes, I can live with that. I did not think Ramos for Capps was a good move. I do believe Span for Meyer and Revere for Worley and May were good moves. So far it has not paid dividends. Worley did not pan out and even if May and Meyer never pitch another game and Revere wins 5 batting titles you will not hear a peep out of me.
  6. Dantes929
    The way to make money isn't to bet these types of lines. Its to bet on season outcomes. If the line on the Twins is 100-1 against making the playoffs a modest $10 bet can get you $1000. A $1000 bet could get you $100,000. My question is if there is any way to bet on one of these outcomes without doing so illegally or without going to Nevada. I could see laying a couple Hondo on over under bets just for the fun of it and I won't be going to Las Vegas until October.
  7. Dantes929
    Yet somehow there were more total runs scored in A's games at the Coliseum than their games on the road. Is it a conspiracy that somehow when the A;s were batting the foul territory shrunk? Most pitcher perform better at their home park. The Twins rotation as a whole the last 4 years have an ERA that has averaged over what Milone has done just on the road. Two runs worse than he has done at home. It can't all be foul territory and if he was such a soft tosser why are they hitting so many foul balls off him anyway? His road performance is better than Nolasco's road performance most of which was in the NL and it is better than Santana's road performance and it is better than Gibson's. How is that explained?. I already said his mid 80's fastball probably won't play but maybe it will and maybe he truly was injured and can get it back to upper 80's. Regardless of park he has performed better than the average starter in the majors and as such didn't really deserved a demotion. That is all I am saying. I want May or Meyer also but soft tosser or not the 83 games he has started is not really that small a sample size and really he has a better resume than Nolasco, Gibson and Santana...
  8. Dantes929
    I understand the decision but when the going rate for quality starts across the board is 50% its kind of harsh to be demoted right after doing it in 9 of your last 11 starts. I know not everyone sees ERA as a great stat but Milone has a career ERA under 4 in 83 starts and was at 3.55 on the season when demoted. In the last 4 years the Twins have only had one qualifying pitcher each year under 4 ERA and Hughes finished the year at 3.57 and was our ace. They have had 10 qualifying pitchers over 5 and mostly well over 5 ERA in that time period. Milone over 83 starts has an American League ERA under 4.00. Are you saying his upside is now well over that? I fully expect the Twins rotation to be better this year but can pretty well guarantee they won't have 5 guys with an ERA under 4. If I am wrong I will be very happy to be wrong. I also want May to be that 5th guy but think Milone deserves a little more respect for what he has done and it is only the decrease in mph that make me think his best days might be behind him. If the surgery gets his fastball back up closer to 90 then there should be no reason to think that.
  9. Dantes929
    I guess I would be plenty annoyed at being demoted as well. After a solid couple seasons he has a slow start where his ERA was 5.86 after 5 starts. He then has 9 quality starts over his next 11 games, is credited with 6-0 record as the A's won 9 of those 11 starts. He brought his ERA down to 3.55 and was then demoted. I cannot think of a similar case in the history of baseball. His 3.55 ERA would have made him our #2 pitcher and was likely better than over half the starters in the majors and next thing he knows he is pitching in the minors. Also makes me wonder if the A's knew something about his neck or arm condition at the time. In general I don't care how hard he throws as long as he has stuff and control to make up for it. So by itself the mph don't bother me but the decrease in mph does concern me. We will see what his velocity is now if he actually is completely healthy. Many pitchers have different splits on home and road. Some do better some do worse. I wouldn't write it all off to larger foul territory. How many are caught because of the extra room and how many would he have gotten out anyway? Maybe it is that much of a factor but then it should be nearly that much of a factor for all pitchers. Its not like it was bigger for just him.
  10. Dantes929
    When you are right you are right. Of course now to determine who did well we have to see the new crop of guys for the Rays but that is not my point anyway. I would declare the Royals the winners in the swap but it could just as easily have been a bust for the Royals and a perennial all star for the Rays just like it could have tuned out that Capps wins a WS for us.. In the Twins case I am fine with banking on the prospects and do wish we still had Ramos.
  11. Dantes929
    lol, I knew it when I typed it but it is still a prospect for a vet and I am guessing Ryan wishes it hadn't happened. Ramos by the way has a better CAREER OPS than Suzuki had last year in his career year. Plus Ramos is still playing and Capps is done just like the Rays still have Myers and Shields is long gone from the Royals. That trade balance is still to be determined. I would still like to have Ramos.
  12. Dantes929
    Royals squeaked into the playoffs and were one wild pitch from being eliminated in the first game. Shields could just as easily have needed surgery after one week and Myers turn into Mike Trout.
  13. Dantes929
    I agree with you. To me his major league season was not good but I am still glad he got the experience. What earned him the chance to be the 5th starter was his outstanding body of work before his calf injury in the minors. I didn't really think he was quite back in the groove after taking a month off for that injury. Time will tell but if he is the back end of a rotation I think he has a fair chance of being one of the best back of the rotation pitchers in the league. I am not sure Meyer, Milone and May can't outpitch Santana, Gibson and Nolasco.
  14. Dantes929
    Doesn't help that he is still regretting the Ramos for Capps trade.
  15. Dantes929
    Its mostly a matter of degrees. I like speed and OBP more than most but OBP isn't always a factor of small ball. In our last good year of 2010 for example our #1 and 2 hitters Span and Hudson were actually less than the team average in OBP because Thome, Mauer and Morneau had fantastic OBP stats, In fact I was never one to bash Gardy much but one of the things I didn't like about his approach was just that. Putting guys in the 1st two spots that weren't big on base guys. When Span or Hudson were hurt he would put Tolbert or Punto in there. Mauer should have been batting 2nd. He should always be batting 2nd. So in your example above I like the B lineup if you just flip Dozier and Mauer because Pinto figures to be a better hitter than Suzuzki and Walker or Kepler are power guys that maybe figure to get on base a lot as well as being fast. What are the assumptions in terms of OBP for Polanco vs Dozier. I've also never been a real huge fan of having 6 OBP guys in a row and then 3 power guys in a row. Maybe put a power guy at 3rd, 4th and 7th.
  16. Dantes929
    I think you are overlooking how good Trout has been and is. Loved Puckett and hard to argue with HOFer but Putckett started at age 24 and had one top 2 MVP finish. Trout at current age 22 has three top 2 MVP finishes. Pretty sure I would trade Buxton and Sano for Trout. Trout so far is closer to Mantle than to Puckett. I agree that he looks like a once in a generation type. .280 15 homers and 35 doubles along with GG defense would make me happy with Buxton. Any more would thrill me.
  17. Dantes929
    Dozier, Escobar, Santana, Gordon and Polanco. I think the future will have Dozier in a sign and trade but no need for that now. What are our needs? Give up Nolasco and Dozier will that get us a super pitching or catching prospect? I know outfield is the biggest need now but hopefully that won't be the case in a year.
  18. Dantes929
    I like your last sentence and will apply it to your first sentence. Since the Twins have struggled to find one, much less three, outfielders to hit or play defense I'll be happy to see the Twins solve the problem of having a very productive power hitter versus having a good defensive guy that hits with just decent power once it proves to be one. If Rosario plays good defense and hits .300 with gap power (I know its a big if but we are talking about him hitting well without power as the premise) I want him to be centerfielder this year and move to a corner when Buxton comes up. If we happen to have a guy in the future that he competes with that can be more productive with power, then great. Right now we have Hunter, Hicks, Schaeffer and Arcia.
  19. Dantes929
    I don't think they are basing their comments on the minor league season. You miss 50 games their and we are starting to talk small sample size. Even smaller sample size in the AFL but if he didn't do well there I don't think they would have been talking him up. His performance there simply put him back in the mix.
  20. Dantes929
    I guess I didn't actually respond to your original premise of the comparison to Arcia mainly because I don't expect Rosario to be battling for that spot. Rosario with good defense and even a bit less than your standards for offense would get me excited for him being in center this year and taking over for Hunter either this year or for the following years in a corner. We are not at cross purposes here. I have been high on Rosario and hope he meets your expectations because that is a really good stat line..
  21. Dantes929
    I like the high standards. However, since the defense in the corners aside from a year of Span in right field has never really been that great the last 10 year and since only 4 outfielders overall have matched your criteria for offense in the last 10 years I think the standards might be a bit high. In fact, if we got those stats along with GG defense from Buxton eventually I would probably be just fine with it. It was easy research for the last 4 years because just a .280 average stuck out like a sore thumb. I might have missed one or two but Cuddyer did it in 2011 and 2006 (just ok Defense). D Young did it in 2010 (horrible D)., Kubel in 2009 (ok D) Hunter in 2007 (great D). Cuddyer and Hunter had another year that was close. If we could get good corner defense from Rosario to go along with .330 OBP and 40 extra base hits of any kind that would be worthwhile. Aside from the good D its what I would expect from Hunter this year.
  22. Dantes929
    "With other stronger defensive center fielders in the system, it seems likely that he’ll have to play a corner outfield spot in Minnesota. That means he’ll have to show he can hit for power." I've never really cared for these comments especially when I have so often seen Twins hitters in the past (Mauer, Punto, Valencia, Young, Morneau, Cuddyer) try to hit for more power only to have their OBP and average diminish without adding much if any power.. If the Twins of the near future have Sano, Arcia, Dozier, Vargas, Buxton and maybe Plouffe then table setters become more valuable and if we have Arcia in one corner then I definitely want speed in the other corner to go with Buxton. If he hits for power then fine but I primarily want to see that OBP from Rosario.
  23. Dantes929
    May and Arcia though I have to correct you about Gibson. He wasn't sometimes good and sometimes bad. He was sometimes Sandy Koufax great and sometimes Pelfrey bad.
  24. Dantes929
    Give Shaquille O'neal all the instruction in the world and I doubt he could touch 80. There are guys 5"11 165 that can throw 95 mph. Its the same as homerun hitters. Size can help but it hardly means everything. Besides which May seems to be in that 93 mph range which puts him over 2mph above the league average and over 2mph above the average of the WS champion Giants. In addition, his strikeout totals tell me he isn't the typical guy with low 90's fastball. He obviously has stuff which I am more concerned with. Nick Blackburn could touch 95 mph with his fastball at the end. Didn't mean much. What I noticed about May last year was that his waste pitches were truly waste pitches. They didn't even tempt the batters which just gave them a free ball. I wouldn't mind if his strikeout totals dropped a little bit if it meant he got more easy outs by making hitters chase a little bit more when ahead in the count.
  25. Dantes929
    Not really sure why the Twins have this rap? Meyer is the only guy I can think of in years that really should have been promoted to the majors quicker and that is just quibbling a bit. The list above has a lot of names that simply did better than Meyer in terms of WHIP and ERA which is my basic point. If his stuff is so overwhelming and walks don't matter that much then those stats should be better. He's facing the same competition that Pino was and was giving up 50% more runs. The two guys I checked on the list above that had worse stats than Meyer were Lester and Kluber and those guys spent 6 and 7 years respectively in the minors. Meyer has spent 3. If he pitches well he will make the team this year.
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