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Dantes929

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Everything posted by Dantes929

  1. Dantes929
    "Studies in recent years have shown that lineup construction has less of a practical impact on overall scoring than many had previously believed". Can't help but think any study would be flawed. Put Nishoka and Punto at their worst in front of Cabrerra and Morneau and then Span and Mauer in the 8 and 9 spots over the entire season and compare it to Span and Mauer batting in front of Cabrerra and Morneau with Nishioka and Punto at their worst in the 8 and 9 spots. I am guessing the latter lineup would outscore the former.
  2. Dantes929
    I'm usually in that camp but the alternative is to sign almost no one that has service time and has been any good at all either homegrown or free market. I hope Nolasco does well. If Pelfrey earns the 5th spot I hope he does well also. Just I am hoping May or Meyer gets it.
  3. Dantes929
    Small unsustainable sample size but I agree that Santana should bat first and Santana was likely helped in scoring that many runs by Mauer moving him over. Platton, I understand what you are saying. Speed and hitting to the left side are what keeps Mauer from being one of the best #2 hitters ever. Doubles power and .400 OBP makes him a very very good one nonetheless..
  4. Dantes929
    I know you are talking about Mauer here and you know its an argument I have made before as well. Mauer contributes to more runs without getting an RBI or run scored than anyone I have ever seen. His value is definitely enhanced by having good hitters before and behind him. Ideally you would have a lineup full of Joe Mauer's (preferably circa before 2014) though it wouldn't be bad to have 6 of him with a few Thome, Morneau types.
  5. Dantes929
    Sorry. If the premise is he is gong to hit a home run one way or the other there is at least one bird in hand no matter what. Having possibilities of runners on makes it a bird in the hand vs a bird in the hand that has brought a couple of his friends from the bush.
  6. Dantes929
    I have always defended Hicks value at getting on base but have also said it is likely his true value is as a platoon player. Hicks batted .279 and had an OBP of .410 as a right handed batter last year. He hit .171 with a .302 OBP last year from the left side. His career shows similar gaps between right hand and left. I acknowledge that there are more right handed pitchers but being a late inning upgrade defensively in the corner spots would also have value. .410 OBP plays very well in the leadoff spot. .302 not so much. In his entire career I have only seen one AA season that argues he has any talent at all as a left handed hitter.
  7. Dantes929
    Every evaluation I have seen of Buxton is top of the order. With his toolset I don't really want him behind Mauer. I see Mauer as a table setter but blazing speed should be ahead of him rather than behind him IMO. Power should be behind him.
  8. Dantes929
    I have always considered Mauer to be a nearly ideal #2 guy even in his MVP year. I would be ok with him at leadoff if the situation merited but the spot should be Santana's to lose.. Hopefully it is just place holding until Buxton arrives.
  9. Dantes929
    Two encouraging things about that comment. First is that 6 guys that you DO care about is probably an increase over the prior three years. 2nd is that one of the names you omitted led the team in RBI last year by a pretty healthy margin and only trailed Hunter by 3. A lineup that has Plouffe in the bottom of the order is probably a threat to score some runs.
  10. Dantes929
    Span is a fair example though I have never looked at height and weight as being the necessary components of power. By all accounts Buxton has more talent than Span so even if they take the same approach Buxton should succeed better. The least movement upper half or lower I have ever seen in a player by a large margin was Paul Molitor. He hit for decent power and great average. I would be ok with a Paul Molitor with plus speed. Am hoping Buxton takes bunting seriously as well. I don't know how many avg and OBP points Puckett and Carew got from bunt base hits but am guessing it was significant.
  11. Dantes929
    In hindsight I wish they had made these assumptions on Buxton and Dh'ed him in 2014. I don't think the analogy is quite apt as no other sport or position has the same risk or the same caution as pitching.
  12. Dantes929
    This all actually makes me feel kind of good. Makes me feel like with all the stats and tests and reports its still baseball and players can't be pigeonholed with pinpoint accuracy. Guys outside the top 150 will make it to the major leagues and do well and some in the top 30 might never make it. I mean these guys that make the lists are experts, right? and one expert says Stewart is top 30 and another rates him at least 73 spots lower. Reaffirms my opinion in general. Experts are those that are right half the time and us poor shmuck amateurs are wrong half the time.
  13. Dantes929
    Not sure why at this point you would consider the best case scenario to be a much weaker fielding 3rd baseman? He was a shortstop and has a great arm and I have read that he is a good athlete and a hard worker. Why would the best case scenario not include gold gloves?
  14. Dantes929
    Mauer's great year saw the ball barely going over the fence in the friendly homerdome. and then riding the wave of confidence to barely hit the ball over the fence at a few hitter friendly road parks. The next year saw those same balls hit the deeper wall of Target or get caught at the warning track. He could have been juicing but I am skeptical.
  15. Dantes929
    He was on a monster tear and in many ways Shane Mack was even better (AVG. OBP, OPS) I cursed it because I remembered it as the reason we lost Mack but I see Mack played about 30 games less than Puckett (and Alex Cole?). Anyone know if Mack was hurt or if he just skipped to Japan because of the rumors of the strike.
  16. Dantes929
    Of course no one is built like Kirby Puckett.
  17. Dantes929
    I guess it depends on perspective. To me it looked like Mauer swung harder and tried to pull the ball more last year, gained no power and lost 50 points in average. I certainly cannot imagine him with a leg kick and don't believe everyone is built that way. I would prefer Arcia read this article to learn how to harness his swing in order to be able to hit for average and power rather than just power. I believe he has the talent, just not the skill yet.
  18. Dantes929
    He keeps his weight back, his head still and he strides toward the pitcher. It also appears he is swinging no harder but rather letting improved mechanics power his swing. He is trying to drive the ball rather than pull the ball. He used all fields so he hit for power and average. Arcia should watch it over and over again, not for the leg kick but for the balance and plate coverage.
  19. Dantes929
    "The 2014 Twins scored a lot of runs, but would have been an elite offensive club had they hit more long balls." Kind of meaningless. They did hit more home runs in 2013 but scored fewer runs. I'll take OBP but they don't have to be mutually exclusive. Morneau and Thome were great OBP guys with excellent power. Am hoping our young guys can combine the two as well.
  20. Dantes929
    I just can't help but be a little skeptical of a guy that has a FIP that is better than his ERA every year and has a .6 run difference for his career, Was LA's defense that bad? Just seems like there is a little more art to pitching than numbers can tell us. I felt our infield defense was pretty good last year. I have come to value outfield defense a lot more over the last decade than I used to but was our outfield defense really worth an extra run per 9? Ugh. Can't wait for Buxton.
  21. Dantes929
    Good question. I wouldn't mind a couple of each on my team and would have been happy with a rotation full of either the last 4 years.
  22. Dantes929
    You probably want to qualify that awful season comment to say Milone was awful for the Twins last year. His full stat line in the majors shows a 4.19 ERA over 21 starts. That stat line would have easily put him solidly as the #2 starter for the Twins last year.
  23. Dantes929
    Quality start minimum requirement is 6 innings pitched with 3 runs given up. As Bert will point out this isn't a terribly high standard. I was just distinguishing this kind of quality start from 7 or 8 inning start with 1 or less runs given up or even a 5 innings start with 0 runs given up. I perhaps could have given a better example. I don't really care how many strikeouts he had but the length of the start is of course relevant. I didn't mean to be taken literally. Gibson in his wins last year had a 1.42 ERA. Koufax in his wins had a 1.35 ERA. I could find a lot more things they have in common but of course I am not trying to say Gibson was anywhere near as good. Just saying when he was good he was really good.
  24. Dantes929
    As far as I could tell from stats I have seen 90.8 is the average major league fastball and it was also the average SF Giant fastball so May's average is still over a mile faster and can get it higher still. I don't think the fastball is the problem. He also has what I consider to be a very good curveball and changeup. Control isn't just about not walking people, its about putting waste pitches nearer to the plate to tempt batters and not putting the ball in the heart of the plate as much. If his control gets better I see May much closer to Viola in potential than Radke. Viola's best strikeout rate was 7 and his Cy Young year was 6.8. I just think May has a good fastball and appears to have stuff to make it better and his strikeout rate supports that. Just a little improvement again this year over his overall 2014 rate and I think he can have a very good year.
  25. Dantes929
    I have said it wouldn't surprise me if Milone, Meyer and May were able to outpitch Gibson, Santana, and Nolasco. Some have suggested that Gibson should be battling for a spot also but he not only had a lot of quality starts last year they were Koufax kind of quality starts. 12 games giving up 1 or 0 is enough for me to want him in the rotation. Personally, I think the 4 and 5 spots should be open with May, Milone, Nolasco and Meyer battling and with that order going into Spring Training. On paper it looks like this group should be able to pitch as well as the 2010 rotation.
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