Brandon

Yes because our back up may become the starter if our starting SS has to become the CF again.

Punto was just released by the A's. Should the Twins continue their welcome back tour and bring Punto back as the 2nd back up middle IF or stay with Nunez. Remember Gardenhire is not here to give Punto too much playing time.

In the playoffs it helps to have the best players at as many positions as possible Especially Pitcher. While that gives you an edge it doesn't guarantee victory. There are so many examples where the lower talented team won 45% of the time which on a micro level works too. Note: 86% of all stats used to back up a point are made up on the spot. but if someone goes back and checks this is probably not far from the truth as there are numerous examples. the 87 Twins and the 2006 St Louis Cardinals are the 2 biggest ones. the Pirates in 1951, the Giants, in 2014, the Marlins in 2003 were a wild card team, whoever played against the Braves in the 90's had an inferior pitching staff as they had 3 aces and only 1 World Series Victory.

I think Pino replaces Chen as their swingman as he is the righthanded version of him. soft tossing and all.

I agree Millone is the likely starter unless something happens. I think its 50/50 May could start the season in the pen. I guess that may be at Pelfry's expense. I hadn't thought that through all of the way. I do think Meyer will start in the minors. I don't think they should move him to the bullpen unless the just cant throw more pitches and consistently get through 6 innings a start. Maybe if there is a need in the pen and he isn't progressing with his consistency then try him in the pen.

Here's the pitching equation I noticed Terry Ryan works off of since I have watched the Twins. Why does he do this? Because its the most cost effective and risk averse. The goal is to get 5 starters who can pitch 180-210 innings with around a league average era. (anyone can then have a breakout year) If the rotation has an era of league average. Lets use 4.00 for this example we have 2/3 of our innings pitched with a 4.00 aggregate ERA Then we have an above average bullpen and lets use 3.30 for their era. now when we do the math. 2/3 of the innings from the rotation *4.00 = 2.67 + 1/3 of the innings from the bullpen * 3.30 = 1.1 add them together for a team ERA of 3.77 which is about .25 point less than league average. With an above average offense (put together most cost effectively) 9 solid hitters with 1 or 2 real good hitters but the hitters average 70-80 RBI's then the lineup will be cost effective and score 4.25 or so runs per game and that would give us a run differential of +80. That's how Terry Ryan builds his teams. That's how they were structured when we won in the early 2000's and that's how he is putting them together now. Pretty soon the only available upgrades to our roster will be is we get someone really expensive. Back when we won in the early 2000's outside of the 5th starter and Bautista/ White the next available upgrade at each position would have cost a lot for a marginal improvement. Think about it. The next best available upgrade over Santana would be Shields and he'll cost twice as much and how much better will he really be? Shields will pitch 15-20 more innings and give up around 10 -15 runs less than Santana for 2 times the money.

I'll take a stab at this. Meyer will start the year in AAA. May may be there as well but I think he'll get a long reliever role to break in with less pressure as long as Millone doesn't implode or get hurt in spring. The bullpen is the hardest to predict due to so many options. I am going to list in order of positions not an actual batting order. Starting 9: 1B Mauer 2B Dozier SS Santana 3B Plouffe C Suzuki RF Hunter CF Hicks LF Arcia DH Vargas Bench: OF Schaeffer IF Escobar IF/OF Nunez C Fryer (yes I prefer Pinto or a bat but I don't get everything I want) Rotation: Hughes Santana Gibson Nolasco Millone/ May Bullpen Perkins Fien Deunsing Theilbar Pressley Pelfry May/ Oliveros/ Tonkin/ Achter/ Graham (more candidates than I can remember off the top of my head). If May makes the rotation I don't think Millone will end up in the pen unless there is a trade of someone else. If May makes the rotation it will be a battle of all the other candidates for the last spot.

The Twins had the best pitcher in the majors in Santana a few years back and didn't win in the playoffs.

Pino could also be their swingman. I hope he has a couple of nice seasons so he can make some cash.

The Royals just signed Edison Volquez for 2/20. That's what MLBtraderumors predicted he'd get but how close will he get to matching Shields numbers? 80%? Seems like Kansas City did the best they could with what they had but still lost ground overall.

on MLB.com he entered the season as the Braves #6 prospect and is now our 17th rated prospect. http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/index.jsp?c_id=min#list=min

I see KC as a 75-80 win team with a decent starter to fill in for Shields. I see the Twins as an 80-85 win team with their moves and continued development. I think there are several players who will return to form (Mauer and Nolasco) and continued improvement from other like Hicks, Arcia, Plouffe bullpen pieces and May/ Millone, I see Suzuki, Santana, maybe Vargas, and Escobar as potential regression candidates.

The whitesox are hard to grade. The improved their rotation by leaps and bounds. their bullpen went from weakness to almost a strength. They could use another reliever or two. Laroche replaces Dunn who retired so he isn't an upgrade but he keeps them from going backwards. Cabrera is a huge upgrade in on base percentage which Chicago sorely needs. They do need a 2B as far as I can tell and a few relievers to finish their offseason and the other thing is they need to learn to play together quick because their projected window of opportunity is not long and I think they are positioned to remain in a state of being a .500 team for a while as they continue to patch holes as they spring up over the next few years without getting enough talent to win overall.

This is why I am surprised the both Parmelee and Colabello were let go last season. That leaves Pinto as the only available bat to DH consistently if Vargas fails and needs more time in AAA. With Parmelee, Hunter could slide in and DH some with Parmalee in RF. maybe Sano is ready after 6 weeks in this scenario.... On Hunter he can also light a fire and stay on Hicks to be better and not let up. In addition to making a better environment to succeed. Back to Vargas, I do think he has shown enough bat control to be the clean up hitter over Arcia at this point. Plouffe or Hunter could hit there if they prefer a veteran in that spot. If TR says he is looking for bullpen help then he is looking for bullpen help. I think he is looking for a low cost bullpen piece and not a specific player. If he was looking for a player he would have signed Neshek as the 2 year deal he got isn't prohibitive as its only 2 years. Neshek probably would have signed here since its close to home all things being equal. He probably would have given a small discount to come back. So that tells me TR is watching Pohlads pennines and is going to go after more depth and let them all sort it out in spring training. I do not think Meyer will start the season in the pen. The Twins have stated several times he doesn't have the resilience for the role.

Comparing what Chicago has done to what the Twins have done....LaRoche replaces Adam Dunn so not a big upgrade. The other signings are because Smardjiza knock out their worst starter like Santana does for us only our worst starter was way worse than theirs so Santana is a bigger upgrade for us then Smardijiza was for Chicago. Cabrera has 70 more OBP then the OF he replaces which is huge cause they really need OBP guys and Hunter basically replaces the offense of Willingham and Kubel with slight improvement. Chicago's bullpen was a disaster last year so that is really improved for next year. Chicago doesn't have much depth and they are reconstructed as a win now team. They have a terrible farm system and IMO are in danger of becoming what the Pirates were for a long time a team close to .500 with no where to go.

A lot of moves have taken place in the AL Central so far this offseason. Chicago has made a lot of noise and Detroit and Kansas City has made some moves and Cleveland just signed Gavin Floyd to go with their trade for Moss. How do these moves affect these teams and who are the incoming players replacing? If they are like Ervin Santana replacing Correia that is a huge upgrade while Chicago's signing of LaRoche is a good move he replaces a similar hitter in Adam Dunn so the net effect of this move is not as big. That's not to say Chicago hasn't made big strides this offseason so here goes. I think Chicago then Minnesota have had the best overall offseasons so far. For Chicago Cabrera has a 70 point on base percentage increase over Viciedo who he replaces in the OF which is exactly what Chicago needs, someone who can get on base in the number 2 or 3 hole. LaRoche replaces Dunn in the lineup and protects Abreu with his 25 HR power. Chicago's rotation gets a boost from Smardzija who is replacing I guess Carroll in the rotation which is a huge upgrade and their bullpen was horrific last season so Carroll going to long reliever and with Robertson moving everyone else down in the pecking order and Duke providing some stability really help that pen. Chicago still needs some help in the field as who is playing 2nd base? I hear they have internal options I just don't follow them enough to know. Also do they have depth in case of injury? This is a team built to contend now and maybe next year but the window of opportunity is small. Their farm system looks barren from where I sit. I give Chicago an A for being able to contend on paper next year but it may be more of a B since they do not have much depth in case of injuries and no Farm System what so ever if they decide to change course for a rebuild. All in all Chicago has had the best offseason so far. Minnesota has had the 2nd best Signing Ervin Santana to bolster the rotation is huge. Santana essentially replaces Corriea in the rotation and in a sense should save the team 40 runs on the pitching side. Signing Hunter doesn't do much to help the OF defense but he does bring a bat capable of helping us stay a top offense in the league next year. He also is being counted on to help Hicks find his way. Hunter in a sense replaces Kubel and Willingham and Parmelee to some extent. the Twins could use some help in the bullpen but they do have numerous candidates to consider in the spring and may continue to add. So far a B+, Minnesota filled 2 holes with players who are not blocking anyone though we may have a pitcher blocked in the rotation Santana won't be the one doing it as he is their 2nd best starter now right behind Hughes and Hunter is only here on a 1 year deal. Cleveland is now close behind the Twins in their offseason by signing Gavin Floyd. Cleveland had 8 starters with 14 or more starts so I am going to say that he is replacing the injured Masterson and potentially someone else too. Moss was traded for to help out at 1b and DH I didn't see a DH on the roster other than their 1B Santana. But he adds depth and is a good bet for 20-30 HRs. Its hard to ay what this team needs more of to improve. Maybe some on base type hitter and some bullpen depth but this is a young solid team. Cleveland gets a B too as Moss is a big win for them and Floyd is a good depth move and possibly a good number 3/4 starter. Kansas city has held steady except for the expected loss of Shields. They essentially traded Butler for Morales and its debatable who is the better hitter or if both of them have passed their primes. They did resign their bullpen pieces Frasor and Hochevar and I do believe that Rios can be an upgrade over Aoki probably not on defense but definitely with the bat. The Royals did sign some decent depth pieces including Pino from the Twins. But their offseason hinges on what happens to Shields. If they can resign him they will likely be contenders again and if not they need to find someone who can step in. I like what they did to keep their bullpen and get more depth and I am not sure how to look at Rios and Morales vs Butler and Aoki as improvements or not. so for those moves they get a C+/B- and an incomplete till we see how they handle Shields rotation spot. I don't expect him to resign but they do need to do something significant to hold steady and holding steady with that big of a potential loss would be huge for this team. Detroit is in a similar situation with Scherzer. They at least hedged with trading for Price. Other than that they have made some nice moves to get Cepedas which is an upgrade over Hunter in that Cepedas is a better fielder at this stage of his career. They resigned their best hitter to maintain status quo for now and be a financial burden later. And they also traded for Green and Simon to round out their rotation but going from Scherzer to Simon is going to hurt anyway you look at that. I feel that Detroit is at the beginning of the end of their reign unless ownership really pens up the wallet. I see them contending this year and we'll see after that. For this offseason I give them a B-/C+ as their other needs are addressed and they even found a downgraded replacement for Scherzer but Detroit is holding steady instead of moving toward being a better team and that is why they get a lower grade then they probably should. At this point Chicago has had the best offseason as they went from door matt to contender and just a few pieces away from being ready. The Twins filled 2 of their 3 biggest holes choosing to believe either Hicks will step up with Hunter there or Santana can go back out there. Cleveland has added a slugger and rotation depth and lost only Masterson. Kansas City and Detroit have both made some good moves but seem to be treading water overall. What are your thoughts on how the division is shaping up for next season?

What grade would you give the Guerrier signing? He was effective for half a season in terms of ERA till his last 2 appearances and only cost 1 million. I'd give his signing a C. On Nolasco I still think it was an ok move and that he'll return to being a 12-15 game winner with close to 200 innings. for last year I give his signing a D- (he did pitch ok coming back from injury to finish out the year) F before the disabled list appearance. Kubel and Bartlett should have just started the season in the minors.

I give the Twins a B grade so far this offseason. I think better of the Torii Hunter signing. not so much because he is so great. He is good and can be a good influence for Hicks to get over the hump and become a productive major league player. He may be exactly the person to be able to do that for Hicks. But there also wasn't a lot of other options either. Rios, Rasmus, Aoki, Hunter, between them I am fine with Hunter. I would have liked Cabrera better but that's it and he was thought to go for 4 or 5 years 14 million range which is more than the Twins wanted to spend. As for the Santana signing, There aren't many options that are better and none in that price range so I give that signing a solid A. If the Twins were going to go after Shields, Scherzer or Lester then it would be lower but seriously did anyone expect the Twins to even target Santana? I think the Twins biggest mistake was not signing Neshek to a 2 year 12 million deal. granted that is a little high but if the Twins want a good reliever for the pen you might as well get one of the best from Minnesota that wants to be here. and 2 years is not that long. we probably could have had a small discount. maybe 2/10 or 2/11 instead. Yes I know there are other options so my expectations are increased for our bullpen next year since we missed this obvious signing. I still expect another signing here too. not sure who they'd target but they could use a solid arm till Burdi comes up.

How does the Central Division stack up for next season after all the moves made this winter? Who improved, got worse, status quo....? and why are the Twins still rated so far down the standings for next year? I see them as near .500 or better team. I live in CA so you'll have to donate my pizza to a homeless shelter http://www.homelessshelterdirectory.org/cgi-bin/id/city.cgi?city=Minneapolis&state=MN pick one and let us know who you sent it to.

What about throwing in Nolasco and getting more back from the Marlins? Though I do think Nolasco bounces back next year.

I think he makes a fine bench player. not good enough to start and just good enough for reserves. I mean if .750 is above average then .700 is ok for the bench. He does have some but not great power. He plays both corner OF positions well in terms of routes, throwing and doesn't make a lot of mental errors just not great with range. I think Pinto's bat and Schaefers and Nunez speed and range in OF makes Parmelee a player we don't need since the player he would be replacing has bad range too.

So what are the odds of Twins / Phillies World Series? if anyone guessed Twins and braves in 91 I wonder what the Jackpot was.

Pino just signed with KC? I thought he was on our 40 man roster? when did we designate him so he could be a free agent? http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/royals-sign-yohan-pino-to-major-league-deal-designate-casey-coleman.html

Why not? they have a top 5 offense that just got better with Hunter. Their rotation while not great has 3 dependable starters with a 4th one who should bounce back giving the team 4 12-15 game winners. The bullpen is above average as well. we may have lost 92 games last season but last season our team wasn't the same type of loosing season as the others. we improved our run differential by over 100. We just improved a rotation spot that should net us 40 runs or so in the run differential for next season. so what part of our team is going to keep us from contending?

I reported this yesterday in the what's our next move thread. But I do think this is the type of signing where the Twins find lightening in a bottle. I am just now seeing how many candidates we have ready to compete for a spot next season. though if we have 7 relievers we have 2 possibly 3 spots open depending on if Pressley gets a spot. I do think the Twins could go out and find 1 player who is more established here or just go with numbers to find the quality. Established bullpen pieces Perkins Fien Deunsing Theilbar Almost established Pressley numerous candidates Achter Pino Burdi Graham Villareal Tonkin Oliveres Thompson Darnell I am sure there are more options here that I am not aware of Including failed rotation options as one of these guys will be in the rotation Pelfry Millone May Meyer