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Everything posted by Riverbrian
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Kenley Jansen: Only 6 NL Teams are Trying this Season
Riverbrian replied to Vanimal46's topic in Other Baseball
Yeah I over simplified my point but even that Wall Street guy who can't work in Winona (actually with computers... they can) can still go from Goldman Sachs to BOA if he chooses. That's why they are getting those real competitive job offers with all that cocaine. But I don't want to get bogged down in that point... Like Ash mentioned... Ball players are compensated handsomely for the inconvenience so the comparable isn't always going to hold water when you try to compare it to the freedom a truck driver enjoys. My real point is getting tangled with your point. I'm saying that paying free agents in decline phase is the price that owners should pay for not having to pay them during their prime years. The players union screwed up and the owners are taking advantage of the screw up and it will get more pronounced because the metrics are screaming they shouldn't pay the decline phase player and the old school GM has been replaced by the Metrics People who can hear the screaming. I'm saying that the owners should consider not taking advantage of the screw up... let sleeping dogs lie. If they close the door on paying the decline phase free agent because of the metrics screaming at them. They will force the players union to try and open a new door during prime years and if that happens... Watch the market forces drive free agent costs to unheard of levels. The Pujols contract will look like mine in comparison. Back Pay was a bad example on my part. It's more like... the player went through the process in good faith with the hope of getting paid at the end and when they finally arrive... it ends up not being there because the metrics killed it. Kind of like Social Security being gone... right about the time I'm going to my mailbox. -
Kenley Jansen: Only 6 NL Teams are Trying this Season
Riverbrian replied to Vanimal46's topic in Other Baseball
Yep Analogies will break down under scrutiny but I don't expect people to scrutinize mine. It would cramp my style... and the scrutinizer will just come down with a dull headache. -
Kenley Jansen: Only 6 NL Teams are Trying this Season
Riverbrian replied to Vanimal46's topic in Other Baseball
I think this will screw everything up beyond recognition and that is why we should absolutely do it. I don't even care if it would work. -
Kenley Jansen: Only 6 NL Teams are Trying this Season
Riverbrian replied to Vanimal46's topic in Other Baseball
I agree completely... I can choose where I work. I've always had that choice. But as a fan I disagree. I want Buxton to be here for awhile before he signs with Atlanta. I like the system the way it was... and I wish the owners would just pay the FA's... Consider it back pay if you have to. -
Kenley Jansen: Only 6 NL Teams are Trying this Season
Riverbrian replied to Vanimal46's topic in Other Baseball
Honestly... you never know. If the Cubs sign a few more Jason Heyward types and keep trading from the farm for the Quintana's of the world to constantly go for it. Down the road... They might look the Tigers from last year and say... OK... let's reset. The Astros... right now no... They have a healthy farm system and a young healthy roster but they might have to let Altuve and Springer go elsewhere because they don't want to pay Dodger and Yankee money and if the prospects don't adequately replace them... Well... maybe. So... Honestly... you never know. -
Kenley Jansen: Only 6 NL Teams are Trying this Season
Riverbrian replied to Vanimal46's topic in Other Baseball
6 is a light number but the point is still the same. After the Cubs and Astros won World Series titles fairly shortly after executing a complete rebuild... precedent has been set. So... now we got a bunch of teams jumping in and giving it a try. Teams looking for supplemental help out of FA's this year was down quite a bit. You got a combo of the competitive balance tax on the upper end and the tear it down and rebuild happening on the lower end. The Teams in the middle who might be ready to spend a little like the Twins, Rockies and Brewers are not historical Market Price Setters. The Yankees, Dodgers, Tigers, White Sox, Giants, Nats, Cards, Cubs, Phillies, Blue Jays, Braves are teams that have jumped into Free Agency fairly aggressively in years past. This year... everyone of those teams is either out or being very cautious either due to the CBA or rebuilding. It's a perfect storm year and we will have to see what happens next year but I get feeling that it will get worse especially if the Brewers win the world series and show that another complete rebuild team can win it all. -
Kenley Jansen: Only 6 NL Teams are Trying this Season
Riverbrian replied to Vanimal46's topic in Other Baseball
It's real hard to feel sorry for millionaires fighting especially when the single mom is working a full time job plus two part time jobs and she can't afford the $30 ticket to the ball game. The only thing I can add is this... if you have the advantage (the owners do) and you have labor peace. Don't grab for more (The Owners did). Your last paragraph describes the problem perfectly. You have more sympathy for the 2nd year player and less sympathy for the FA vet. The front office looks like it agrees by using decline phase data to adjust payment to the FA Vet. The front office would probably love to pay the 2nd year all star player what they are worth but... well they can't... because they OWN that player. They don't have to. The players were OK with this as long as they got their money at the end. Now... they are not getting the money at the end either. I have no choice but to side with the ball players while I struggle to pay for my kids education and weddings. -
The Difficult Dozier Decision
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think he has the feet for third... and if he has the feet for third... he'll have the arm for third. -
Kenley Jansen: Only 6 NL Teams are Trying this Season
Riverbrian replied to Vanimal46's topic in Other Baseball
I've said this many times on TwinsDaily and mark my words... The next CBA is going to be real ugly. The front office can't have it all. The players union has allowed the teams to control the prime years of players and I assume it is because the eventual free agency payoff has been sufficient. When the teams adjust to that (like this year) by saying with the checkbook... you are in decline phase so we will no longer pay you like we used to... you are poking the players in the eye and this will produce an equal reaction. The teams would be smart to give a little or they will have to give up a lot later. To every action there is an equal reaction. Plus when teams adjust by loading up on cheap players (sensible moves by the GM's) who have the capability to produce at the same level as the Free Agent asking tens of millions AAV. The next CBA is going to demand adjustment. Basically... the players union is going to look at what's happening... do the math and conclude. OK... you pay players below poverty levels in the minors for up to 5 years. You pay them the minimum for the next 3 years. You force them to go through nasty arbitration for the next 3 years before you give them the option to change teams and get a decent long term contract and refuse to pay them because they are entering the decline phase. The players are going to demand Free Agency at age 26... the players union might even demand that the draft is unfair. Forcing teams to sign players out of high school at market prices. Either way... The owners won't go for it... We won't be watching baseball for awhile because the strike is going to be long lasting. It'll be the owners fault in my opinion... they got greedy. -
His character name in First Blood was Will Teasle. That's what makes the movie so brilliant. Will's are notorious for being Nonsensical people. Will Ferrell Will Rogers Will Smith Will Clark Will Middlebrooks Will Venable You see what I mean? Back to Brian Dozier... He has been under the control of the Twins since he came out of college at age 22 in 2009. For 9 years the Twins have controlled him through his prime years. Great for us but this is now his chance to sign with who he wants for as much as he can get. He finally has control of the rest of his career. I hope he signs with us... but if he does not... I will be happy for him... he's earned every penny he gets. If I was an MLB player of his caliber... There is no way I give up a single year of Free Agency unless I am blown away with an offer. I'm not saying I wouldn't return to my team... but there is no way I'm giving up a single year of free agency. Players are waiting patiently for this moment. I can only assume that the Twins would have to do much better than the QO for at least a couple of years to get him to give up FA with an extension and if that's the case... you might as well roll the dice, offer him a QO and see if his market settles in at a lower number. It's possible because 2B is pretty well stocked across the league. Or heaven forbid... if we are out of contention at the Deadline. If Dozier is playing well... he might be worth a nice rental return. If we are in contention... you'll want him in a contract year.
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Granite is the only guy on your list with options remaining. Granite has probably already secured his living arrangements in Rochester. Right now... I think Molitor will give us clues by who he plays in the OF. Grossman is locked in at the 24th spot. For the 25th spot... If he plays Adrianaza in the OF (and he has) that's a clue that he will be 25th guy. If he gives Morrison a start or 2 in the OF during spring training... that gives Vargas a sliver of hope at being the 25th guy. If Morrison does nothing but 1B in Ft. Myers. Vargas is gone unless there is an injury to Morrison or Mauer. Wild Card... Twins go with 13 Pitchers. That could mean Grossman and Vargas are out. Granite... He's in Rochester... Unless there are injuries.
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Yep... no matter how much clubs deny this... they do it and the CBA kinda forces them to do it. The other thing... You can't stash Vets in the Minors... You need to hold young pitchers back in AAA so you have decent injury replacements. The injuries are going to happen and somebody needs to be called up when it happens.. You can't stash vets in the minors... so you have to hold guys back a little because pitchers 6 through 10 can be pretty darn important. Rush your prospects and you leave yourself with no depth. If Romero continues to perform in AAA... I'll guarantee you that we will see him this year. If he pitches well in the majors... He'll stick.
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Here is what I know for sure. People named Brian are very sensible people. Brian Dennehy Brian Boitano Brian Regan Brian Doyle Murray Brian Wilson Brian Austen Green Just look at that list and it can't be argued that Brian's clearly set the bar when it comes to common sense. The sensible thing to do when you are in your last year before free agency is have an amazing year and declare free agency and use that leverage to sign the biggest contract that you can. Nobody should blame Brian for wanting that. As for the Twins approaching his agent about an extension. They probably want more data before making the offer because they know that they would have to come up with significant dollars to get a sensible Brian to give up that free agent leverage that he has never had before. He's a Brian... He'll make the right decision for himself because Brian's are very sensible.
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Everybody should be concerned about this. Contracts are always a dice roll. Sometimes you just gotta do it and bake the risk in. The only thing I disagree with you about: I want him playing reckless out there. I don't want him to pull up... I want him to make those catches. That part of his game is his best part right now... if you moderate that... you bring down his value. Yeah I know... it's an injury risk but getting in the batters box is an injury risk. Running at his speed is a hammy risk. I always say... play the game hard... always. It's up to the GM to make sure that there is decent fill in ready take over when needed.
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Twins 2018 Position Analysis: Catcher
Riverbrian replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Catchers typically don't hit that well to begin with. If we need a fill in... somebody will fill in without that much of a drop off. -
When do the Twins cut bait with Phil Hughes?
Riverbrian replied to adorduan's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
You cut bait with Hughes when you are sure that he can't help the team at any point during the duration of his contract. -
Also... Don't put a feather pillow in your Car Engine or bowl of tomato soup. Chicken Soup is OK.
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Are they gonna play all of these teams? The players deserve more money!!!
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Do You Need An Ace To Win The World Series?
Riverbrian replied to Jamie Cameron's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Having an ace is very helpful but you don't need an "Ace" to win the world series. What you need is a guy or two who step up to be "Ace" like for a 20 game stretch.- 56 replies
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- ervin santana
- jose berrios
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Because it's Fun to play the "What If" thing. I see no problem with the discussion even if it is clearly premature.
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What's Next For Kennys Vargas?
Riverbrian replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Based on his numbers.. In my opinion... Vargas hasn't lost a job and he hasn't earned a job. I'm not sure that he has ever been seriously been considered for the job though. Don't get me wrong... I believe he got some chances last year and I do believe that Vargas didn't grab it with both hands so that is on Kennys... but let's not come to the conclusion that his numbers were brutal and let's not come to the conclusion that 241 AB's is serious due diligence either. I keep going back to July 2016 and I'm still pissed about it. Kennys was called up July 4th as Trevor Plouffe was placed on the DL. During July with an every day job (65 AB's). Kennys was on fire with an OPS of 1.056. August 2nd he lost his starting job and was eventually sent down in favor of Trevor Plouffe. The Twins benched him when he was as hot during a lost season. That will cool a guy off. That was a big mis-treatment of a guy trying to make it. I like Vargas and I like the Morrison signing because we picked up a guy who hit 38 dingers last year and it didn't cost a lot. But... Let's be clear... Morrison broke out last year at age 29. Take last year out of his career stats and look at what Morrison was... it can be successfully argued that Vargas has better stats. Hey... A break out can be a continued break out and I'm excited about that possibility... it doesn't have to be a one year blip. I'm happy we signed Morrison but I'm uncomfortable that it could cost us Vargas. Who I still think is 40 Home Run Plus Capable. I'd like Molitor to also use Morrison in the OF from time to time so Vargas can sensibly stay on the Roster. Although... I really doubt that would happen so it is what it is. We got a guy who can hit it out and a guy who the Twins will without a doubt play. Playing time is the for sure upgrade of Morrison from Vargas. The rest is kind of a wash.- 65 replies
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- kennys vargas
- robbie grossman
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Delta basically has control of the Hartsfield Airport and they have probably invested quite a bit into the location so I’d be surprised if they left Georgia although I would Love to see it just for the pure entertainment. I do believe you right about other new businesses at least on the mega end of the spectrum like Amazon. A petty retaliation like this would make me think twice. You seriously can’t make this **** up.
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I think Lynn or Cobb would have to fall into our lap with a significant price drop. Nothing to base that thinking on other than... we did add to our payroll with the additions of Odorizzi and LoMo. All in All.. It wasn't Darvish but I could see the clear effort the front office put toward the product on the field and I'm going to be OK because the sun will rise tomorrow.
- 66 replies
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- logan morrison
- miguel sano
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I agree with you. I'm just for adding the assets period. Lefty or Righty... is the lesser consideration. I'd prefer a Righty but they just added a 38 home run guy (career year or not) for a very reasonable contract. Morrison may have been the equivalent of an impulse buy. Look at this 65 inch TV for 90% off. May have just been browsing. It doesn't matter... it's great value and they should gather assets where they may. I would have liked Gomez... Can play CF or any OF spot very well... Speed and Power. But... I didn't think it was going to happen. I assume there was a reason that Gomez was traded in the first place.
- 66 replies
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- logan morrison
- miguel sano
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It boggles my mind but the Georgia Lt. Governor threatened to kill a 40 million dollar fuel tax break for Delta (not just Delta... other airlines as well) because they publicly announced that they will no longer offer DISCOUNTS to NRA members in an attempt to remain neutral. So now we have politicians creating a potential 1st amendment issue in order to protect their 2nd amendment views. We have Pro Business Republicans who were arguing that the tax breaks were good for business changing direction on a dime. OVER DISCOUNTS!!! And at the behest of the NRA I'm sure. The NRA has to make an immediate display that they still have the power to make politicians dance. Delta issued a statement saying it continues to support the 2nd amendment which I think is hilarious because you have an airline, or any business for that matter, having to make that declaration. I haven't seen Waffle House issue a statement saying it continues to support the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th or 22nd amendment in order to keep a segment of people buying waffles. Meanwhile Delta is the states leading private employer. They've probably invested too much into Hartfield to move to Charlotte or Nashville in response so they will probably have to ride it out but it's pretty strange to see state representatives saying they are going to kick the states leading private employer in the nuts. Especially when you consider what they promise companies to entice them to build new business in their states for the money and jobs they create. Amazon has been looking at Atlanta... They may want to look again. The Lt. Governor... meanwhile. Plans on running for Governor and knows the NRA Members vote in Georgia. So... get elected and then worry fixing any damage you've done. You seriously can't make this **** up. I'm getting some popcorn and I'm going to watch this one closely from the bleachers. If you ever want to watch politics at it's very worst... Here it comes.

