Riverbrian

They do a lot of pinch hitting and defensive switches in the National League. So Bellinger may not start but he may still swing a bat. I purposely stuck with Games Started exclusively because the starter will get the bulk of the at-bats.

Dozier remaining in the leadoff spot come hell or high water is what kind of led me to this assumption of an auto-pilot type managing style of Molitor. I don't care much about batting order... I really don't. I've always figured it was the privilage of the manager and not mine but... Dozier bats lead off every game regardless of how he is playing. How long did it take Paul to finally shift Dozier out of the lead off spot. My opinion is too long. Too many times... I hear people complaining about LaMarre, Cave, Motter, Petit and all of these guys who don't play that often. Are they going to be Max Muncy... Probably not... If they don't get a chance they won't for sure but either way... I don't care... they are on the 25 man roster and available to play and should absolutely be utilized to let the starters know that they can't play like crap and expect to go to their position every day without checking the lineup to see if they deserve it. At the very least... you can look at the numbers and say that nearly all of them have out-performed Buxton and Morrison, possibly Sano, Some have been better than Kepler and some have been better than Dozier. I want a team that will at the very least be competing for precious playing time. I'm with ya.

Bullpen usage can be approached the same way. I just did position players but you can take the same approach with the pen. Appearances, Innings pitched, compared with the performance metrics of the player. Is he giving the ball to his best guys? You'd have to try and factor in the real bad inning. If a relief pitcher gives up 5 runs without getting an out... they don't have the sample size to stabalize the number but yeah... you could absolutely come up with something to measure his decisions in regards to the pen. Don't like how Molitor is using his bullpen. You could come up with a metric that puts a number on it and see how he compares to his peers. I don't want to make a manager completely plastic by using metrics as the only tool. But I'd like real time information on the overall result of those decisions.

Absolutely, this is another part of the discussion that is worth tackling. Thank You.

This game started percentage thing was just something that I came up with to try and show the difference between Roberts and Molitor. I posted it because I did the work and might as well share it and thought it would be an interesting talking point at the very least. I know it is quite possible that there are multiple considerations that can poke holes in it but it is worth discussion from "The Distrubution of Playing Time" to "The filling out of the 25 man roster" to the "The selection of AAAA Talent and or development of AAAA Talent". And maybe it can be expanded even further. As we discuss weather Paul Molitor is the right man for the job and use traditional applications or personal feelings to form our opinions. Is it possible that some sabremetric minded brilliant mind can use "game started percentage" as a starting point to come up with a metric that assesses the ability of a manager to get the most out of his lineup? Could you take "Game Started Percentage" for each player and combine it with performance metrics of each player and create a new bang for the buck stat that can then be combined with the rest of his teammates to create an overall stat that reflects the manager lineup decisions. It seems to me... that a smart metric guy could figure something out? Maybe Not?

I agree with you 110%. I'm not going to stand here and say that I'm right but by now it's obvious that I'm fixating on it so I believe I am at least somewhat correct. No matter the approaches chosen either individually or collectively... It hasn't worked for our Manager this year. It didn't work for him in 2016 either. Is it possible that it worked in 2017 simply because the players he chose to ride did the job and therefore he kind of lucked into it as some sort of blowing in the wind fate? If that is true... is it possible that Molitor is not the guy to come up with a different idea if the wind is blowing in the wrong direction?

I agree... You would probably have to factor in the DH somehow. I also think non DL time with Boo-Boo's will skew things a bit. I simply chose Roberts and the Dodgers because they are the extreme example on the other side and the I've been making the point that Dave Roberts would not have tolerated the performances of our players. Look at Bellinger at the top of the list. Uber Prospect, Sophomore Year. Brian Dozier can only play 2B while Bellinger can play and has played 1B and CF plus the other OF positions. Yet Bellinger obviously easier to get into the lineup since he plays multiple positions and more important to any lineup because he is producing much much better than Dozier leads the Dodgers at 90% while Brian Dozier is at 96%.. This speaks Volumes to me. Every manager should be paying attention to this. Did the Dodgers create their depth out of thin air by giving the depth a chance? Did they stumble upon it or identify it? Why are the Dodgers creating it and the Twins not creating it? Shouldn't it be the opposite? Shouldn't the Dodgers be the team with no room for the Muncy types to flourish with all that Money to spend on Bryce Harper? Shouldn't it be the Twins who don't have the budget for Bryce Harper that needs the occasional pay off from a Max Muncy type. These are good questions. I'm hopeful that the Twins try to figure out the answer and think about it for 2019 and beyond planning.

I think you are correct. I think most baseball clubs would be closer to the Twins style of games started percentage but it doesn't make the Dodgers wrong. I also agree... that the Dodgers have spoiled themselves with options. Just look at the OPS of each player and it's clear that the Dodgers are the better club but take a closer look at the names causing that good problem to have. It's a whole lotta 600K guys. It is easy to assume that the Dodgers just went out and bought that talent since they have a payroll around 190 million. They didn't buy it... Look where the money is and look where the production is in comparison. They created that depth by playing the players who are performing and moving away from the players who are not. How do the Dodgers get lucky every single year with Max Muncy, Kike Hernandez. Chris Taylor... JUSTIN TURNER Many people forget that Justin Turner was non-tendered by the Mets. The Dodgers just scooped him up. They are obviously better at finding these gems... Are the scouts just better? is it the brilliance of Farhan Zaidi or is it Dave Roberts not tolerating sub-par play from the vets and giving the opportunity to Max Muncy and rewarding him with more playing time if he is getting the job done? If Max Muncy would have signed with the Twins instead. Can anyone say with certainty that Molitor would have played him enough to discover that Max Muncy could help the team. I'm not sure. As much time as we spend shopping on the scrap heap you would think we would stumble across a Muncy or two along the way. The best we've done is: Grossman? How would Dave Roberts handle Byron Buxton? Look how he handled Joc Pederson. Sano? Take a look at Puig. Dozier? Look at Forsythe.

When a player is 2 for his last 25. That would be a good time to rest a guy.

We could use some offense for 2019. It will be a challenge to fill all the open spots via Free Agency. Gonna have to acquire some decent talent via trade.

And cost 5.4 million dollars less.

It'll be a 3 person draft.

They missed a 4 foot putt on 18 to be 10 games worse.

Yeah Along with power, speed, defense, depth and farm help a phone call away... all inside a 98 million dollar payroll. This Stearn guy is a GM who can GM.

Josh Hader threw three innings. I've said that every team should be trying to acquire or at least creating their own version of Andrew Miller. The Brewers have created one.

You are looking at it strictly as black and white. You don't replace guys entirely like you can only have 9 starting players at a time. It's not like there are only two options here... Playing every day or barely playing at all. You play the players who are playing better more and the players who are playing worse less. When it comes to lineups... this is a concept that every manager needs to grasp because if a manager can't grasp this concept... I'm going to say that we can find a better manager somewhere else. It is very hard to plan for a year like this but a year like this has been made much much worse by refusing to try something else. I picked this starting 9 and these are the guys who are going to play every day regardless of how they play. Byron Buxton when on the 25 man roster has started 26 out of 28 games and his OPS+ is 7. Yes he is our future... Yes he is the greatest defensive CF we have seen in quite some time... Yes he is one of the fastest players in the majors... Yes... he is very very important... I love Byron Buxton... I drafted him on my fantasy baseball team! BUT... BUT... His OPS+ is 7 Why does Byron Buxton get to walk right past the posted lineup card with no concern of not being on it. His OPS+ is 7. Brian Dozier has been in the lineup nearly every single day. Yes... we are waiting for him to get hot again... Yes... He has been an overall solid baseball player over his career... Yes he has a track record that suggests he has talent. BUT... BUT... In 2018 it's July and he has .221/.309./.394 slash line. He isn't warming up either... he is currently .172/.300/.333 over his past 30 days... He's been worse lately and wasn't good before that but he gets to walk past the lineup card without bothering to check if he is in the lineup. These are not the slash lines of an everyday player. He isn't earning it. I don't blame the front office for signing Logan Morrison. I appreciate the effort. BUT... BUT... His slash line is .191/.251/.351. Taking a wrong turn is something that we all do from time to time. Signing Logan Morrison may have been a wrong turn in the wrong direction but once you see you are going the wrong direction... who keeps going that direction? I know the response is typically, Yeah but look who Molitor has to work with. Grossman, Adrianaza, LaMarre, Cave, Petit and Motter are not good options. I have a few responses to that. 1. I don't care... At some point you have to look Brian Dozier in the eye and say you are not in the lineup tonight because we need offense and you are not providing it. I'm going to start taking a look at some other options at 2B until you get it in gear and let me know that you deserve to be in the lineup every day. Until then... make sure you check the lineup card to see if you are in it so you don't run out to second base by mistake. 2. I assume a consensus was reached in the front office that they would break camp with Grossman, Adrianaza and LaMarre so that means somebody must have thought they were OK. If you can't play Grossman because Morrison is busy not producing every day... then you made a mistake rostering Grossman. If Grossman isn't good enough defensively to get more playing time when you have two outfielders busy not producing... then you made a mistake rostering Grossman. Jokin said it right... At some point you have to look at your scholarship guys who are playing like crap and let them watch the walk on's to least send a message. Maybe along the way... you'll stumble on a walk on who ends up being Max Muncy, Chris Taylor, Kike Hernandez or Adam Thielen. This isn't black and white. This isn't just two options of playing every day or not playing every day. If you are playing every day you need to produce like you should be. If you are not... check the lineup card.

Exactly! I've been trying and failing to make this point all year. You summed it up perfectly. Although, I'm not sure humiliation is the purpose but if its a by-product... so be it. I posted Games Started Percentage to show that there has been very little consequence for poor performance. Our worst performers are getting the playing time and crickets is the response. I suggest that the team play LaMarre in April and I get painted as a LaMarre guy instead of what I actually am... an anti 1 for 35 guy. If I woke up in the Morning and read that Jokin was called up from Rochester. I'd be saying "Put Him In". I have no idea who Astudillo is. Still don't, but... I do know that he is not Wilson and he is not Morrison and those are players who had extended chances to contribute. When the autopsy of the season is complete. We will be able to primarily blame: 1. Dozier, Morrison, Kepler, Sano and Buxton because they all failed to be (at the very least) average. 2. Whoever kept playing these 5 over and over again despite being (at the very least) below average. 3. Whoever failed to provide alternative options to #1, possibly causing #2. You hit the nail on the head Jokin. Thank You.

I hand the Indians nothing!!! The Twins did tho.

That's what makes the play of Dozier, Buxton, Sano, Morrison and Kepler so damn disappointing. It sure looked like the division was setting up to be the easy pickings it has ended up being.

Escobar needs a break. He has been scuffling a bit.

Probably correct... But... He could always take off the tools of ignorance when the need calls.

My auto-correct changes it to "Austin City Limits".

Pissed wasn't the right word... I didn't have time to think of a more accurate adjective when I posted quickly because I had to get to work.. On second thought... I'm gonna go with "Disillusioned". I remain hopeful that Astundillo gets a moment behind the plate... just to see how it goes but I won't hold my breath. I also hadn't heard about the Adrianaza DL stint until now.

I didn't know much about that. I also like to make my own determinations. It was more of a case that I needed to take a look. I assumed that if Wilson was going to be the roster casualty to make room for Polanco. Astudillo would need to be able to replace Wilson. When he didn't get a weekend catching assignment... I assumed that Astudillo would be the roster casualty. I was doing the 2 + 2 = 36 thing.

I wasn't worried about Wilson... He's a dime a dozen guy and we've gotten a look an extended look at him. I'm ready for a change. I really didn't know Astudillo from Zorro the sword fighting guy but I knew he was listed as a catcher (among other things) and talked myself into being hopeful that he could play catcher for us. That was the genesis for my premature comment. I Knew Polanco was coming up, needing roster space and was hopeful that Astudillo could get a quick catcher audition so Wilson was the guy pushed aside for Polanco. I'm Ok Now.