Riverbrian

My guess... I think it means the Yankees have spoken to his agent in broad strokes. They will stay engaged as much as they can. http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/cashman-yankees-chances-landing-darvish-article-1.3752216 They have publicly announced they will be under the cap. They have to move money to make it work.

If any of the above is true. Its dangerous for the Twins to wait for one of the other teams to cave. Because if they do... The Twins will probably lose. All the Twins eggs seem to be in the Darvish basket. They need a solid Plan B such as a trade for Grienke in place and then they need to give Darvish a quick deadline to take the offer or they complete the deal for Grienke. I can’t see an advantage for the Twins letting this play out. The D-Backs just might take Hughes and a prospect for Grienke so they free up some money to sign JD Martinez. The money will probably come out even AAV with two less years for Grienke. Who Knows... I might be

Taking this a step further to support my personal narrative. Trying to look at this logically with no inside information. 1. Do the Casablanca thing. The teams listed as still in the running are a list of the "Usual Suspects". Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, Rangers and Astros. Houston might be somewhat new to Free Agency participants but they ain't the same Astros from years past. They can be FA Players now. Seeing the Astros on a list with the usual suspects shouldn't be that shocking. 2. Do the Seseme Street thing. One of these teams is not like the other. That would be our Twins. The Twins have never been working at the top of the market. My assumption based on the Twins inclusion on this list with the usual suspects is this:: The Twins must have the top offer on the table right now. How else would the Twins get included on this list. Why would the Twins be on the list with the usual suspects if they are not doing something extraordinary to get themselves included. 2A. If 2 is true... I think it is. It would also signify that Pohlad is willing to spend a little. 3. The Pirates and Cole might be a reason for the slow developing FA Market. Cole at 3.75 Million this year and whatever he gets in Arbitration next year is going to be a lot less riskier than Darvish at 5 or 6 or 7 years. It stands to reason that if a team asking about Cole has a loaded farm system... the Pirates are going to ask for the top of the pile in return. For example... The Yankees may be willing to part with Frazier but the Pirates will ask for Glayber Torres and a stare down takes place waiting for the other to blink. The Astros may be willing to trade Derek Fisher but the Pirates will naturally demand Kyle Tucker and a stare down ensues. 4. If the Astros and Yankees are waiting to get a deal done. Darvish becomes insurance in case they don't get Cole or Archer or whoever via trade. In order to keep Plan B alive. They must continue the conversation. 5. Agents have been through this before. They are probably looking at the Twins top offer and advising their client to wait until the usual suspects really come to the table... instead of kinda coming to the table. 6. They can't really come to the table unless they clear some money to make it happen. The Dodgers have to find someone to take half of Kemp's contract and they need to trade Puig. The Yankees need someone to take half of Ellsbury's deal or trade Robertson or Gardner which weakens them in other areas. 7. The Cubs... How did they get outbid for Wade Davis? Settling for Morrow instead. Why are they letting Arrieta go? They know him... They don't really know Darvish. I'm guessing that they are trying to get salary under control. They are really acting like a team that would like to bring payroll down. The Cubs would probably like to be involved in the Harper, Donaldson, Machado, Blackmon thing next off season. 8. Hope that the Astros land Cole to take them out. Leaving the Yankees and Dodgers with the Luxury Tax problem still causing problems for them. In my opinion... The Good News... I really think the Twins have the highest offer on the table. The Bad News... I think Darvish is waiting for someone to top it or come close to it. I gotta start thinking about the Vikings for a little bit. BEAT THOSE SAINTS!!!

They could and I agree that you can never have too much pitching. However... it's a weird market this year and I think it is luxury cap related. With the Astros... It would be overkill. They got 5 big league arms right now in the rotation. ' Verlander Kuechel McCullers Morton Peacock They could move Peacock to the bullpen to make room Cole or Darvish but it would be pretty strange to move any of the other 4 unless they go with a 6 man rotation but even if they go to a 6... They still have Musgrove and McHugh who are slated for the bullpen because of lack of space. I'm guessing the Astros are out if they trade for Cole out of plain ole' overkill. With the Yankees... I think it's all about resetting that luxury tax penalty and staying under the threshold so they can sensibly pursue Harper and Machado. This competitive balance tax escalates with each year you are over. 1st Year you are over - 20% Tax on the overage. 2nd Year - 30% Tax on the Overage 3rd Year and Subsequent Years - 50% Tax on the Overage In addition... there is a 12% Surtax if you are over the cap by 20 million and a 42.5% Surtax if you are over by 40 million. In Addition... Brand New for 2018... If you are 40 million over the threshold. Your Highest Draft Pick will be moved back 10 place. If you can get under threshold for a season... The Tax Rate is reset back to 20% for the next time you are over. The Yankees have been over the threshold for 15 Years straight. Harper, Machado, Kershaw, Donaldson will be threshold busters. If the Yankees and Dodgers don't reset... they could be paying an addition 300 million on a 10 year contract for Harper. By resetting... they can go all in 2019. The only reason I think the Yankees would entertain the idea of Darvish is because they have Jordan Montgomery in the 5th spot and they just got Stanton to start the fans buzzing. Signing Darvish puts them over the Threshold unless they can get someone take Ellsbury's Contract. Trading for Cole at 3.75M makes much more sense and if they get Cole... The Need to go over the cap with Darvish is less necessary especially when you consider that they still need a 2B and a 3B. Just a theory of mine... But I really think the Rangers and Twins are the legit options here.

Rumors... Just Rumors... But Rumors suggest the mystery team is the Dodgers. The Dodgers... I really believe the Dodgers are trying to reset that Tax penalty. Or else that Braves Trade makes less sense. So... The Dodgers would have to find a taker for Kemp and that isn't likely. OR trade Puig and another fairly costly player. There were rumors of Puig for Jackie Bradley awhile back so... maybe. But... I gotta believe not likely. The Yankees have been over the luxury tax line forever so they might just keep going full speed ahead and augment the Stanton addition but... this is the first year in a long time that they have a chance to reset the penalty and I think they will try. Signing Darvish will leave them very little room to address other needs like 3B and 2B. If they acquire Cole... they will be immediately out on Darvish. the Astros can make this deal easy but again... If they acquire Cole... They will be immediately out on Darvish. So Cole will take out one of those two. The Cubs could make the deal happen. They are kicking every starting pitching tire it seems but something isn't adding up. The rumored 3 year 42 million dollar offer to Cobb. Signing Morrow and letting Davis walk. Letting Arrieta walk. I have nothing to base it on but it seems like the Cubs are cutting some corners in preparation for next year's FA Group. The Rangers... They are the team that scares me. They have the need, the space and a comfort factor. I'm hoping the Darvish is just too rich for their blood. Of course... I have nothing to base this on... besides my little head and it's ability to read between very blurry lines.

Yep... Let's see how 2017 goes. My hope is that the Twins Front Office is fair to Joe and I hope that Joe is fair to the Twins and they reach an easy agreement on a series of 1 year contracts for quite a bit less annual value until Joe says it's time to leave. The hard part is while I hope this happens.... I also hope that the presence of Joe doesn't prevent the Twins from bringing in a big time 1st baseman. I hope the Twins uniform is the only uniform he wears and I think it will take mutual desire and cooperation to make that happen. .

In my opinion... Collusion isn't the right word. It's more like a collective reset. Multiple things in no particular order. The Dodgers and Yankees seem to be on the sidelines as they try to reset the luxury tax. Taking the two big boys out will slow a market. Harper and Machado are already a factor. I think the Dodgers, Yankees and quite a few others are looking at next year and doing some pre-prep for that. The young GM's are seeing the danger of Jason Heyward length contracts. They are not colluding but they are all seeing the same obvious data.

You have my respect.

I hope Falvey and Lavine are as forward thinking as rumored. I hope they didn't sell their Best Buy Stock in 2012. I hope they noticed that Aroldis Chapman was acquired by the Yankees after the Dodgers pulled out and the Reds were panic selling in December 2015. I hope they noticed that 6 months later... in the heat of a pennant race. Nobody was too concerned about the events of December 2015 because Chapman was traded as a rental for a HUGE HAUL!!! I hope they noticed that 1 Year later... Chapman was signed to a record breaking free agent contract. 5 Years 86 million... the highest ever signed for a reliever. I hope Falvey and Lavine are cold... calculating... and thinking about the asset and future value. I hope they don't opt to pay the price for Sano's issues... Because Sano is going to get paid if he performs like he is capable of. I hope they understand that if the Yankees offered Chapman to the Twins today... 2 years later... I'm guessing that maybe 95% of all Twins Fans would welcome him to a Twins uniform. (as long as we don't have to give up prospects or something). I hope they realize that the reason Cashman is calling them every day right now... is because he is a vulture!!! I hope Falvey and Lavine keep their heads. Today is Today... Tomorrow is Tomorrow.

He's only 14 years old.

Tom, If I knew you were out there 10 Years ago. I would have learned to read sooner.

The Schwarber comp is a decent one. Kyle would benefit from being in the American League where he could serve as a DH. The Cubs don't have that luxury but they do have a very creative manager who has the ability to adjust his lineup to fit the chips he has to work with. Fortunately for us and Sano... We have the DH to use. We also have Escobar and some depth. I'd move Sano around... 3B, 1B and DH and don't force it by saying he's a whatever exclusively. His play and how the others play will help Molitor decide where Sano spends the majority of his time and where he shouldn't play at all but... Paul has to let the players show him and not try to force some faulty plan. I didn't mind Sano being tried in RF... I fully supported the idea... What I minded was... Sano remaining in RF when he was clearly struggling.

IT WAS ZACH DUKE... IT WAS ZACH DUKE... IT WAS ZACH DUKE.

If Darvish doesn't sign with the Twins. Trading for Greinke could be a consideration. The D-Backs would like to have money to sign JD Martinez. If the D-Backs will take Phil Hughes back in return and pay off the 12 Million left on Greinke's Signing Bonus. After you factor in the 13 Million from Hughes in 2018 and 2019 --- The Twins will be left adding: 2018: 18 Million 2019: 18.5 Million 2020: 32 Million 2021: 32 Million 4 Years/100.5 Million for Greinke. Darvish might be 6 Years/150 Million or 5 years/125 million so the AAV would be close. Greinke would possibly be a 2 year shorter commitment. I have no idea... but... I assume taking on that contract would probably lower the price of the player assets needed to complete the deal significantly. The D-Backs could then take the 100 million savings and use that money to bring back JD Martinez. The Twins have that front line starter minus Phil Hughes. Darvish would be 25 million AAV plus Phil Hughes. Yeah... 37 year old pitchers making 34 million will make anybody nervous but Yu Darvish will be 36 at the end of a 6 year deal and this is how much money it takes to sign a top end starter.

If we don't get Yu? I hope it happens soon enough so there is time to execute Plan B. I hope there is a Plan B. If we open 2018 with only minimal improvements... I will consider it a fairly significant failure. There better be a decent Plan B and Plan C. Support the young offense!

1. We need him. 2. Payroll is low enough to take on the salary. 3. The World Series may have lowered his price tag a little. 4. The Yankees and Dodgers are probably out because they are trying to reset that cap penalty. 5. The 18-19 off season is going to be a huge free agent year and teams may be holding back this year in consideration. 6. Timing is perfect because, the Royals, Tigers and White Sox are clearly or at least most likely not planning on being ultra competitive in 2018. 7. The Twins offense announced it's presence with authority in 2017. Perfect Storm indeed!

Great Discussion... I find myself agreeing with Parker, Spycake and Steve Lein. I think Duke is a smart dice roll. He looks great but he would be even greater with some bigger bang additions along side.

I don't care if a reliever is paid 3 years at 27 Million or 1 year at 2 Million. I only care if the player produces and I think it's quite possible that Sir Duke produces. I'm happy with the signing. I just want arms that can hang zeros regardless of the contract. In my personal quest for an elite bullpen... Duke could fit nicely... my primary concern right now is using one of the 7 or 8 bullpen spots on: A Rule 5 guy A Couple of spots on guys (Pressly, Duffey) that we hope turn it around. A couple of spots on guys who are heading into a sophomore season with sustained success yet to be proved. I'm not suggesting that we shouldn't be giving Hildenberger or Pressly a job. Just suggesting that when you add the totals up... you are hoping that a lot goes right.

Step 1: Get a QB. You'll need someone dedicated to make sure efforts are rewarded with a prominence. If content falls through the cracks you may not get a 2nd. Make sure the QB understands the overall goal of TwinsDaily. Step 2: Don't over Filter. Your designated QB will need to perform some quality control but always remember that perfection is the enemy of the good. Step 3: Open the content doors wide. There is only so much Twins content out there. A majority of the information is locked away in the front office closets and not reachable for us mere mortals. If the content makers feel limited in what they have to write... inspiration will come much slower. Foster and encourage creativity in whatever direction it goes. Step 4: Strength in Numbers - Understand that finding a prolific work horse like Seth Stohs or Nick Nelson is a very hard thing to find. It will be difficult to find people who can match that kind of output so you have to be OK with some one and done's to fill the content hole. Step 5: Use the LIKE button. At bare minimum... you need to let the content creators know that you read what they put down. Nobody is going to get rich doing this... validation for their efforts with a simple acknowledgement is what they are looking for. Don't rely on the community to take care of this for you. It will to a certain degree but this is something that the ownership can do to help reach your stated goals.

I'm all for gaining assets. However... I can't help but wonder what happens to Kennys if Napoli is brought on board. It sure looks like a one or the other type situation. Vargas is 9 years younger Vargas is probably 6 million dollars cheaper. Vargas had better stats last year. ' I have no idea how anybody is in the clubhouse but Napoli better be good in that clubhouse.

This post isn't intended to start a Terry Ryan debate. It isn't even to point out past mistakes or successes. It's simply to illustrate that it's about assets. It's about shopping at Dollar General for the past 5 years. Past 5 year outside bullpen acquisitions: Rodney (Free Agent 1 year 4.5 million) Watson (Trade) Belisle (Free Agent 1 Year 2 Million) Breslow (minor league deal) Abad (minor league deal) Kintzler (Minor league deal) Boshers (minor league deal) Graham (Rule 5) Boyer (minor league deal) Jepsen (Trade) Cotts (Trade) Pino (Minor League Deal) Stephen Pryor (Trade) Jason Adam (Trade) Twins cost to acquire outside bullpen assets: 6.5 Million (all spent by Falvey and Lavine), Half Years of Brandon Kintzler, Kendrys Morales and Josh Willingham... Plus a Mid Range prospect with potential in Chih-Wei Hu and a bunch of minor league deals at the MLB minimum. Bullpen Assets trade acquisitions: Willingham to Royals for Jason Adam Morales to Mariners for Stephen Pryor Graham to Yankees for PTBNL or Cash Abad to Red Sox for Pat Light Kintzler to Nats for Austin Watson Most would agree that the Twins were in selling position at trade deadlines for 4 of the past 5 years. Yet didn't have bullpen assets to sell when all contenders are looking for them. When the Twins did find themselves in buying position... they paid a pretty heavy price. Bullpens need to be prioritized a little higher than Dollar General to prepare for good seasons and bad seasons. The Yankees got serious about their bullpen and built a super one. Watched the team fail with a super bullpen in 2016 and cashed it in... they acquired Gleyber Torres, Billy McKinney, Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield. The Yankees then rebuilt another super bullpen and will use at least one of those acquired prospects to outbid the Twins for the services of Gerrit Cole. If the Yankees shock the world and fail in 2018 because Judge and Stanton strike out too much... They can trade Chapman, Betences, Robertson, Kahnle, Greene and Warren for more top 100 prospects.

This "too risky" thing is getting a little out of control. There is risk when you sign any player to multi year contracts and the highways are littered with bad contracts. The percentages may or may not be higher in the bullpen but bad contracts are not unique to bullpen free agents... it is however... less painful from a cost standpoint. The Astros got burned for 18 million spread over 3 years signing Tony Sipp. They still won a world series and getting burned like that didn't stop them from spending even more this year with the signings of Joe Smith and Hector Rondon to two year deals. Would have been worse for the Astros if they signed Jason Heyward to an 8 year 184 Million Dollar deal. The Mets got burned for 12 million over two years signing Antonio Bastardo. It didn't stop them from spending even more money on Anthony Swarzak this year. Would have been worse for the Mets... if they signed Chris Davis to a 7 year 161 million dollar deal. The Tigers got burned for 11 million over two years signing Mark Lowe... I guess it is possible that that may have stopped them. They ain't spending money right now. However... it could have been worse for the Tigers... if they would have signed Jordan Zimmerman to a 5 year 110 million dollar deal.... wait... they did. There is simply risk and it can't be avoided... anytime you sign a player to a contract. The risk increases with each year you attach. If any GM's or Owners are risk adverse and afraid of signing a bad contract. They should get out of baseball and focus on death and taxes.

Yep The Twins and Rays actually seem to match up well as trading partners. We got some young hitters and they got some experienced pitching.

If they do. I want new guys running the front office immediately!

Perfectly summed up.